PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 20 Jan 2017
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 99-95
29-22 15-31 26-20 29-22
Position#13
Record12-30
FormLLLLW
Points / game98.5
Allowed / game102.8
Miami Heat 🏆
USA
vs
Dallas Mavericks
USA
Position#22
Record14-27
FormLLWWW
Points / game95.7
Allowed / game100.4
USANBA· AmericanAirlines Arena
NBA2016-17
Meetings · Miami Heat v Dallas Mavericks
26 Oct 2026
MIA109
DAL113
24 Nov 2025
MIA106
DAL102
24 Nov 2024
MIA123
DAL118
10 Apr 2024
MIA92
DAL111
01 Apr 2023
MIA129
DAL122
15 Feb 2022
MIA99
DAL107
04 May 2021
MIA113
DAL127
28 Feb 2020
MIA126
DAL118
28 Mar 2019
MIA105
DAL99
22 Dec 2017
MIA113
DAL101
19 Jan 2017
MIA99
DAL95
01 Jan 2016
MIA106
DAL82
30 Jan 2015
MIA72
DAL93
15 Nov 2013
MIA110
DAL104
02 Jan 2013
MIA119
DAL109
29 Mar 2012
MIA106
DAL85
12 Jun 2011
MIA95
DAL105
02 Jun 2011
MIA93
DAL95
31 May 2011
MIA92
DAL84
20 Dec 2010
MIA96
DAL98
11 Dec 2009
MIA93
DAL106
31 Jan 2009
MIA96
DAL111
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Dallas Mavericks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#20
L
82-91
82
91
-9
76avg 92
A30/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
114-117
114
117
-3
113avg 92
A31/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
L
98-107
98
107
-9
91avg 92
H01/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
L
90-99
90
99
-9
73avg 92
A04/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#23
W
107-102
107
102
+5
105avg 92
A05/01
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#28
L
100-127
100
127
-27
79avg 92
A07/01
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#6
L
86-98
86
98
-12
73avg 92
A08/01
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#1
L
95-107
95
107
-12
86avg 92
A11/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#14
L
108-116
108
116
-8
101avg 92
A14/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
W
109-103
109
103
+6
100avg 92
H18/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-21
30-21
17-31
16-18
25-25
23-27
30-30
36-35
37-33
29-25
15-27
17-22
29-28
23-28
14-27
24-16
30-25
34-34
23-22
20-21
23-32
33-26
23-32
21-37
19-20
20-32
27-28
20-18
29-27
25-26
14-26
27-28
30-42
18-23
26-26
34-25
27-32
26-21
26-26
30-24
205.6Avg total
98.9Scored
106.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (42)98.5102.8201.3-4.229%
Season at home (19)101.6103.0204.6-1.432%
Season away (23)96.0102.6198.7-6.626%
Last 10 (10)98.9106.7205.6-7.820%
Last 5 (5)99.6110.2209.8-10.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)102.0105.0207.0-3.050%
vs Similar ◀ (21)97.2103.0200.2-5.724%
vs Weaker (7)105.6112.3217.9-6.729%
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMavericks
Date
Competition
Houston Rockets
#3
L
107-123
107
123
-16
93avg 88
H28/12
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#28
W
101-89
101
89
+12
99avg 88
A30/12
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#1
L
99-108
99
108
-9
84avg 88
A31/12
NBA
Washington Wizards
#9
W
113-105
113
105
+8
107avg 88
H04/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
L
95-102
95
102
-7
81avg 88
H06/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
82-97
82
97
-15
70avg 88
H08/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#24
L
92-101
92
101
-9
80avg 88
A10/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
W
113-108
113
108
+5
102avg 88
A13/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#24
W
98-87
98
87
+11
92avg 88
H15/01
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#15
W
99-98
99
98
+1
94avg 88
A18/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-31
16-35
27-32
33-25
26-27
24-30
31-13
20-19
29-29
19-30
21-32
30-17
28-29
33-38
26-21
26-17
22-19
23-22
27-29
23-32
20-22
22-23
17-21
23-31
19-33
27-21
24-23
22-24
32-29
25-30
31-17
25-32
27-25
29-22
23-23
19-17
24-28
30-19
22-27
23-24
201.7Avg total
99.9Scored
101.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (41)95.7100.4196.2-4.734%
Season at home (19)96.097.8193.8-1.842%
Season away (22)95.5102.7198.2-7.227%
Last 10 (10)99.9101.8201.7-1.950%
Last 5 (5)96.898.2195.0-1.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)96.8107.8204.6-11.020%
vs Similar ◀ (20)97.897.9195.7-0.150%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -1.7-1.7Q1: -1.4-1.4Q2Q2: -0.2-0.2Q2: -2.2-2.2Q3Q3: -6.0-6.0Q3: +1.1+1.1Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: +0.6+0.6
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -1.7-1.7Q1: -1.4-1.4Q2Q2: -0.2-0.2Q2: -2.2-2.2Q3Q3: -6.0-6.0Q3: +1.1+1.1Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: +0.6+0.6
Miami HeatDallas Mavericks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#20
W
49-42
49
42
+7
A30/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
48-52
48
52
-4
A31/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
W
66-58
66
58
+8
H01/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
L
52-56
52
56
-4
A04/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#23
W
64-59
64
59
+5
A05/01
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#28
L
56-58
56
58
-2
A07/01
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#6
L
39-52
39
52
-13
A08/01
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#1
W
54-53
54
53
+1
A11/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#14
L
48-65
48
65
-17
A14/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
D
53-53
53
53
+0
H18/01
NBA
107.7Avg total
52.9Scored
54.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)50.353.4103.6-3.140%-
Last 30 at home (12)51.455.3106.8-3.942%-
Last 30 away (18)49.552.1101.6-2.639%-
Last 10 (10)52.954.8107.7-1.940%-
Last 5 (5)50.056.2106.2-6.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)53.553.0106.5+0.550%-
vs Similar ◀ (21)48.252.7100.9-4.438%-
vs Weaker (7)55.455.6111.0-0.143%-
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Houston Rockets
#3
L
47-66
47
66
-19
H28/12
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#28
L
50-57
50
57
-7
A30/12
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#1
L
48-59
48
59
-11
A31/12
NBA
Washington Wizards
#9
L
61-67
61
67
-6
H04/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
W
45-41
45
41
+4
H06/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
42-45
42
45
-3
H08/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#24
L
46-54
46
54
-8
A10/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
L
57-59
57
59
-2
A13/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#24
W
56-47
56
47
+9
H15/01
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#15
W
54-47
54
47
+7
A18/01
NBA
104.8Avg total
50.6Scored
54.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)50.552.1102.5-1.640%-
Last 30 at home (15)50.450.0100.4+0.453%-
Last 30 away (15)50.554.1104.7-3.627%-
Last 10 (10)50.654.2104.8-3.630%-
Last 5 (5)51.050.4101.4+0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)48.559.8108.3-11.310%-
vs Similar ◀ (20)51.548.299.7+3.255%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 98.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.4 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 105.4 points a game
55%
27%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.828.2
49.6%
50.2%56.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.39.5
33.6%
35.7%28.5
🏀 Free throws19.314.0
72.5%
77.0%14.0
They take 85.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 33% of their shots are threes (league average: 32%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Dallas Maverickstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Dallas Mavericks: 99.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.9 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.6 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 105.4 points a game
55%
27%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.124.7
49.3%
50.2%49.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.712.3
38.8%
35.7%36.9
🏀 Free throws16.813.6
81.0%
77.0%13.6
They take 81.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 32%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 20 Jan 2017 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WLLLLWLLLL
Dallas Mavericks
WWWLLLWLWL
#13
League position
#22
-7.9
Net rating
-2.0
100.7
Offensive rating
106.7
108.7
Defensive rating
108.7
49.9%
Effective FG%
52.8%
51.9%
Opp. effective FG%
53.0%
12.9%
Turnover %
12.4%
18.2%
Off. rebound %
17.5%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.21
33.6%
3-point %
38.8%
63.1%
Assist %
60.8%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence100.7 · 106.7Defence108.7 · 108.7Shooting49.9% · 52.8%3-point %33.6% · 38.8%Ball care12.9% · 12.4%Off. rebounds18.2% · 17.5%Free throws0.23 · 0.21Form (last 10/10)20% · 50%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Dallas Mavericks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
9
Miami Heat wins
1
Dallas Mavericks wins
DateGameScore
04/02/16Dallas Mavericks v Miami Heat90-93
02/01/16Miami Heat v Dallas Mavericks106-82
31/01/15Miami Heat v Dallas Mavericks72-93
10/11/14Dallas Mavericks v Miami Heat96-105
19/02/14Dallas Mavericks v Miami Heat106-117
16/11/13Miami Heat v Dallas Mavericks110-104
03/01/13Miami Heat v Dallas Mavericks119-109 OT
21/12/12Dallas Mavericks v Miami Heat95-110
30/03/12Miami Heat v Dallas Mavericks106-85
25/12/11Dallas Mavericks v Miami Heat94-105
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/01/17HHouston Rockets109-103
14/01/17AMilwaukee Bucks108-116
11/01/17AGolden State Warriors95-107
08/01/17ALos Angeles Clippers86-98
07/01/17ALos Angeles Lakers100-127
05/01/17ASacramento Kings107-102
04/01/17APhoenix Suns90-99
01/01/17HDetroit Pistons98-107
31/12/16ABoston Celtics114-117
30/12/16ACharlotte Hornets82-91
Dallas Maverickslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/01/17AChicago Bulls99-98
15/01/17HMinnesota Timberwolves98-87
13/01/17APhoenix Suns113-108
10/01/17AMinnesota Timberwolves92-101
08/01/17HAtlanta Hawks82-97
06/01/17HPhoenix Suns95-102
04/01/17HWashington Wizards113-105
31/12/16AGolden State Warriors99-108
30/12/16ALos Angeles Lakers101-89
28/12/16HHouston Rockets107-123

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2016-17
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW29%
HomeLWLLW32%
AwayWLLLL26%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games421923
Win %29%32%26%
Points / game98.5101.696.0
Allowed / game102.8103.0102.6
Point differential-4.2-1.4-6.6
Avg total201.3204.6198.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+10%16%4%
Close games (≤5 pts) won27% (11)0% (4)43% (7)
Overtime %5%11%0%
Dallas Mavericks
NBA 2016-17
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW34%
HomeLWLLW42%
AwayWLLWW27%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games411922
Win %34%42%27%
Points / game95.796.095.5
Allowed / game100.497.8102.7
Point differential-4.7-1.8-7.2
Avg total196.2193.8198.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%32%9%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)-57% (7)
Overtime %5%5%5%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Golden State Warriors4236686%117.8105.0+12.8
2 San Antonio Spurs4132978%107.198.4+8.7
3 Houston Rockets45331273%114.5107.3+7.2
4 Cleveland Cavaliers41301173%109.2104.1+5.1
5 Los Angeles Clippers43291467%108.2102.1+6.2
6 Toronto Raptors42281467%111.0104.4+6.6
7 Utah Jazz43271663%99.294.9+4.3
8 Boston Celtics42261662%106.9104.8+2.1
9 Atlanta Hawks42241857%102.8103.0-0.2
10 Oklahoma City Thunder44251957%106.3105.6+0.8
11 Memphis Grizzlies44251957%99.699.2+0.4
12 Washington Wizards41221954%105.8105.5+0.3
13 Indiana Pacers41221954%105.8106.6-0.8
14 Charlotte Hornets42212150%105.0103.6+1.5
15 Chicago Bulls43212249%101.4101.4+0.0
16 Milwaukee Bucks41202149%104.8103.8+1.0
17 Detroit Pistons44202445%100.2100.9-0.7
18 New York Knicks43192444%105.4108.2-2.8
19 Denver Nuggets40172342%109.7111.5-1.8
20 Portland Trail Blazers44182641%107.4110.6-3.2
21 New Orleans Pelicans43172640%102.6104.8-2.3
22 Sacramento Kings41162539%102.7105.5-2.8
23 Orlando Magic44172739%99.7104.9-5.2
24 Philadelphia 76ers40142635%99.3104.9-5.6
25 Dallas Mavericks41142734%95.7100.4-4.7
26 Minnesota Timberwolves42142833%103.1104.4-1.2
27 Los Angeles Lakers46153133%104.7110.5-5.8
28 Phoenix Suns42132931%105.8111.8-6.0
29 Miami Heat42123029%98.5102.8-4.2
30 Brooklyn Nets4183320%105.3115.0-9.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat2915262999
Dallas Mavericks2231202295
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.