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Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 12 May 2016
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 99-91
28-18 27-27 20-17 24-29
Position#5
Record67-33
FormWLWWL
Points / game101.0
Allowed / game97.1
vs
Position#9
Record58-43
FormWWLLW
Points / game99.5
Allowed / game97.5
USANBANBA - Quarter-finals
NBA2015-16
Meetings · Toronto Raptors v Miami Heat
15 Jan 2027
TOR v MIA
upcoming
03 Oct 2026
TOR105
MIA129
09 Apr 2026
TOR128
MIA114
07 Apr 2026
TOR121
MIA95
21 Feb 2025
TOR111
MIA120
01 Dec 2024
TOR119
MIA116
17 Jan 2024
TOR121
MIA97
06 Dec 2023
TOR103
MIA112
28 Mar 2023
TOR106
MIA92
16 Nov 2022
TOR112
MIA104
15 Jul 2022
TOR88
MIA78
03 Apr 2022
TOR109
MIA114
01 Feb 2022
TOR110
MIA106
22 Jan 2021
TOR101
MIA81
20 Jan 2021
TOR102
MIA111
18 Dec 2020
TOR105
MIA117
03 Dec 2019
TOR110
MIA121
07 Apr 2019
TOR117
MIA109
25 Nov 2018
TOR125
MIA115
13 Feb 2018
TOR115
MIA112
09 Jan 2018
TOR89
MIA90
07 Apr 2017
TOR96
MIA94
04 Nov 2016
TOR96
MIA87
15 May 2016
TOR116
MIA89
11 May 2016
TOR99
MIA91
05 May 2016
TOR96
MIA92
03 May 2016
TOR96
MIA102
12 Mar 2016
TOR112
MIA104
22 Jan 2016
TOR101
MIA81
13 Mar 2015
TOR102
MIA92
29 Nov 2013
TOR83
MIA90
05 Nov 2013
TOR95
MIA104
13 Jul 2013
TOR72
MIA81
17 Mar 2013
TOR91
MIA108
03 Feb 2013
TOR85
MIA100
30 Mar 2012
TOR101
MIA113
13 Apr 2011
TOR79
MIA97
16 Feb 2011
TOR95
MIA103
27 Jan 2010
TOR111
MIA103
20 Nov 2009
TOR120
MIA113
06 Mar 2009
TOR102
MIA108
16 Nov 2008
TOR107
MIA96
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Toronto Raptors winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Toronto RaptorsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
98-87
98
87
+11
H18/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
101-85
101
85
+16
A21/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
L
83-100
83
100
-17
A23/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
102-99
102
99
+3
H26/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
L
83-101
83
101
-18
A29/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
89-84
89
84
+5
H02/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#9
L
96-102 OT
96
102
-6
H04/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#9
W
96-92 OT
96
92
+4
H06/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#9
W
95-91
95
91
+4
A07/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#9
L
87-94 OT
87
94
-7
A10/05
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-16
26-32
21-18
24-21
24-17
29-19
18-23
30-26
16-28
26-29
16-16
25-27
20-35
32-26
25-29
25-9
22-20
22-20
20-31
19-30
28-23
22-21
28-20
11-20
18-18
25-23
20-27
27-22
29-19
19-22
15-24
23-21
23-19
26-21
19-28
27-23
21-25
14-19
27-16
21-23
186.5Avg total
93.0Scored
93.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (100)101.097.1198.1+4.067%
Season at home (51)103.196.8199.9+6.378%
Season away (49)98.997.4196.3+1.655%
Last 10 (10)93.093.5186.5-0.560%
Last 5 (5)92.692.6185.2+0.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)97.5110.5208.0-13.00%
vs Similar ◀ (20)96.295.3191.6+0.960%
vs Weaker (8)106.495.9202.2+10.588%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#7
W
115-103
115
103
+12
H20/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
L
80-96
80
96
-16
A23/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
L
85-89
85
89
-4
A25/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
L
88-90
88
90
-2
H28/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
W
97-90
97
90
+7
A30/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
W
106-73
106
73
+33
H01/05
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
W
102-96 OT
102
96
+6
A04/05
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
L
92-96 OT
92
96
-4
A06/05
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
L
91-95
91
95
-4
H07/05
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
W
94-87 OT
94
87
+7
H10/05
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-29
43-31
19-18
24-25
28-29
16-20
14-26
22-21
26-19
13-29
22-21
24-20
25-28
22-21
24-16
17-25
27-24
32-26
16-20
22-20
29-18
25-24
29-11
23-20
18-18
23-25
27-20
22-27
19-29
22-19
24-15
21-23
19-23
21-26
28-19
23-27
25-21
19-14
16-27
23-21
186.5Avg total
95.0Scored
91.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (101)99.597.5196.9+2.057%
Season at home (51)102.596.9199.4+5.767%
Season away (50)96.398.1194.4-1.848%
Last 10 (10)95.091.5186.5+3.550%
Last 5 (5)97.089.4186.4+7.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)88.0112.0200.0-24.00%
vs Similar ◀ (24)102.696.8199.4+5.858%
vs Weaker (5)111.0106.6217.6+4.460%
This opponent (Toronto Raptors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +0.8+0.8Q1: +0.7+0.7Q2Q2: +0.9+0.9Q2: +0.1+0.1Q3Q3: -2.3-2.3Q3: +2.6+2.6Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: -0.8-0.8
Toronto RaptorsMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Toronto RaptorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
53-48
53
48
+5
H18/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
53-36
53
36
+17
A21/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
L
42-57
42
57
-15
A23/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
L
52-61
52
61
-9
H26/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
44-40
44
40
+4
A29/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
50-44
50
44
+6
H02/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#9
W
43-41
43
41
+2
H04/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#9
W
48-41
48
41
+7
H06/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#9
W
49-40
49
40
+9
A07/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#9
L
35-44
35
44
-9
A10/05
NBA
92.1Avg total
46.9Scored
45.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)49.147.796.8+1.560%-
Last 30 at home (15)51.148.699.7+2.567%-
Last 30 away (15)47.146.793.9+0.453%-
Last 10 (10)46.945.292.1+1.770%-
Last 5 (5)45.042.087.0+3.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)47.058.0105.0-11.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (20)48.645.293.8+3.470%-
vs Weaker (8)51.051.2102.2-0.250%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#7
W
72-60
72
60
+12
H20/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
L
44-49
44
49
-5
A23/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
L
39-48
39
48
-9
A25/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
L
47-49
47
49
-2
H28/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
W
59-50
59
50
+9
A30/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
W
54-42
54
42
+12
H01/05
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
L
41-43
41
43
-2
A04/05
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
L
41-48
41
48
-7
A06/05
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
L
40-49
40
49
-9
H07/05
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
W
44-35
44
35
+9
H10/05
NBA
95.4Avg total
48.1Scored
47.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)52.449.2101.6+3.250%-
Last 30 at home (14)54.748.9103.6+5.864%-
Last 30 away (16)50.449.499.9+1.038%-
Last 10 (10)48.147.395.4+0.840%-
Last 5 (5)44.043.487.4+0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)47.056.0103.0-9.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (24)51.848.7100.5+3.246%-
vs Weaker (5)56.450.4106.8+6.080%-
This opponent (Toronto Raptors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Toronto Raptorstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Toronto Raptors: 93.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀59%
🏀🏀🏀21%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.6 pts a game · 59% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.5 pts a game · 21% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.0 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 102.3 points a game
58%
25%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.427.3
46.0%
49.0%54.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.06.5
28.3%
35.3%19.5
🏀 Free throws25.719.0
73.9%
75.5%19.0
They take 82.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 28% of their shots are threes (league average: 29%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 95.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀63%
🏀🏀🏀21%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.4 pts a game · 63% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.1 pts a game · 21% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.5 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 102.3 points a game
58%
25%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers62.629.7
47.4%
49.0%59.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.36.7
36.6%
35.3%20.1
🏀 Free throws20.615.5
75.2%
75.5%15.5
They take 80.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 18.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 23% of their shots are threes (league average: 29%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 12 May 2016 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Toronto Raptors
LWWLWLWLWW
Miami Heat
WLLWWWLLLW
#5
League position
#9
-2.1
Net rating
+3.7
98.8
Offensive rating
99.8
100.9
Defensive rating
96.1
45.0%
Effective FG%
49.1%
48.7%
Opp. effective FG%
44.2%
14.0%
Turnover %
14.0%
26.6%
Off. rebound %
21.7%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.25
28.3%
3-point %
36.6%
45.3%
Assist %
43.7%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence98.8 · 99.8Defence100.9 · 96.1Shooting45.0% · 49.1%3-point %28.3% · 36.6%Ball care14.0% · 14.0%Off. rebounds26.6% · 21.7%Free throws0.31 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)60% · 50%
■ Toronto Raptors   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Toronto Raptors wins
3
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/05/16AMiami Heat87-94 OT
07/05/16AMiami Heat95-91
06/05/16HMiami Heat96-92 OT
04/05/16HMiami Heat96-102 OT
02/05/16HIndiana Pacers89-84
29/04/16AIndiana Pacers83-101
26/04/16HIndiana Pacers102-99
23/04/16AIndiana Pacers83-100
21/04/16AIndiana Pacers101-85
18/04/16HIndiana Pacers98-87
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/05/16HToronto Raptors94-87 OT
07/05/16HToronto Raptors91-95
06/05/16AToronto Raptors92-96 OT
04/05/16AToronto Raptors102-96 OT
01/05/16HCharlotte Hornets106-73
30/04/16ACharlotte Hornets97-90
28/04/16HCharlotte Hornets88-90
25/04/16ACharlotte Hornets85-89
23/04/16ACharlotte Hornets80-96
20/04/16HCharlotte Hornets115-103

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Toronto Raptors
NBA 2015-16
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL67%
HomeWWWLW78%
AwayWLLWL55%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1005149
Win %67%78%55%
Points / game101.0103.198.9
Allowed / game97.196.897.4
Point differential+4.0+6.3+1.6
Avg total198.2199.9196.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%33%31%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (30)67% (18)50% (12)
Overtime %7%6%8%
Miami Heat
NBA 2015-16
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW57%
HomeWLWLW67%
AwayLLWWL48%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1015150
Win %57%67%48%
Points / game99.5102.596.3
Allowed / game97.596.998.1
Point differential+2.0+5.7-1.8
Avg total196.9199.4194.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+27%37%16%
Close games (≤5 pts) won59% (29)64% (14)53% (15)
Overtime %10%8%12%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Golden State Warriors98831585%113.9103.8+10.1
2 San Antonio Spurs97752277%102.892.9+10.0
3 Oklahoma City Thunder97663168%109.4102.1+7.4
4 Cleveland Cavaliers97663168%103.998.4+5.5
5 Toronto Raptors100673367%101.097.1+4.0
6 Los Angeles Clippers94583662%103.7100.1+3.5
7 Charlotte Hornets97583960%102.199.6+2.5
8 Boston Celtics93543958%104.6101.8+2.8
9 Miami Heat101584357%99.597.5+2.0
10 Atlanta Hawks99564357%101.999.0+2.8
11 Indiana Pacers96534355%101.699.7+1.9
12 Portland Trail Blazers99524753%104.9104.3+0.6
13 Chicago Bulls90464451%101.6103.3-1.7
14 Memphis Grizzlies92474551%97.6100.1-2.5
15 Detroit Pistons94474750%101.8101.0+0.7
16 Washington Wizards88444450%104.4104.6-0.2
17 Utah Jazz89434648%97.796.0+1.7
18 Houston Rockets95455047%105.8106.7-0.9
19 Dallas Mavericks94435146%100.9102.9-2.0
20 Orlando Magic89404945%102.0103.3-1.4
21 Sacramento Kings88385043%106.2108.3-2.0
22 Denver Nuggets89375242%101.7104.3-2.6
23 New York Knicks87355240%98.3100.8-2.5
24 Milwaukee Bucks88355340%99.2103.3-4.1
25 New Orleans Pelicans89335637%102.8106.6-3.8
26 Minnesota Timberwolves89315835%101.8105.9-4.1
27 Phoenix Suns88276131%101.0107.0-6.0
28 Brooklyn Nets87236426%98.6105.6-6.9
29 Los Angeles Lakers89197021%97.2106.7-9.5
30 Philadelphia 76ers89127713%97.3107.4-10.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Toronto Raptors2827202499
Miami Heat1827172991
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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