PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 04 May 2016
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 96-102 (OT)
18-18 25-23 20-27 27-22 6-12
Position#5
Record60-29
FormWLWLW
Points / game101.9
Allowed / game97.9
vs
Position#8
Record52-37
FormLLLWW
Points / game100.0
Allowed / game97.8
USANBANBA - Quarter-finals
NBA2015-16
Meetings · Toronto Raptors v Miami Heat
15 Jan 2027
TOR v MIA
upcoming
09 Apr 2026
TOR128
MIA114
07 Apr 2026
TOR121
MIA95
21 Feb 2025
TOR111
MIA120
01 Dec 2024
TOR119
MIA116
17 Jan 2024
TOR121
MIA97
06 Dec 2023
TOR103
MIA112
28 Mar 2023
TOR106
MIA92
16 Nov 2022
TOR112
MIA104
03 Apr 2022
TOR109
MIA114
01 Feb 2022
TOR110
MIA106
22 Jan 2021
TOR101
MIA81
20 Jan 2021
TOR102
MIA111
18 Dec 2020
TOR105
MIA117
03 Dec 2019
TOR110
MIA121
07 Apr 2019
TOR117
MIA109
25 Nov 2018
TOR125
MIA115
13 Feb 2018
TOR115
MIA112
09 Jan 2018
TOR89
MIA90
07 Apr 2017
TOR96
MIA94
04 Nov 2016
TOR96
MIA87
15 May 2016
TOR116
MIA89
11 May 2016
TOR99
MIA91
05 May 2016
TOR96
MIA92
03 May 2016
TOR96
MIA102
12 Mar 2016
TOR112
MIA104
22 Jan 2016
TOR101
MIA81
13 Mar 2015
TOR102
MIA92
29 Nov 2013
TOR83
MIA90
05 Nov 2013
TOR95
MIA104
17 Mar 2013
TOR91
MIA108
03 Feb 2013
TOR85
MIA100
30 Mar 2012
TOR101
MIA113
13 Apr 2011
TOR79
MIA97
16 Feb 2011
TOR95
MIA103
27 Jan 2010
TOR111
MIA103
20 Nov 2009
TOR120
MIA113
06 Mar 2009
TOR102
MIA108
16 Nov 2008
TOR107
MIA96
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Toronto Raptors winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Toronto RaptorsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRaptors
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#24
W
93-89
93
89
+4
83avg 91
A10/04
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#30
W
122-98
122
98
+24
117avg 91
H12/04
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
103-96
103
96
+7
97avg 91
A14/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
L
90-100
90
100
-10
80avg 91
H16/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
98-87
98
87
+11
90avg 91
H18/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
101-85
101
85
+16
85avg 91
A21/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
L
83-100
83
100
-17
67avg 91
A23/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
102-99
102
99
+3
85avg 91
H26/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
L
83-101
83
101
-18
66avg 91
A29/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
89-84
89
84
+5
76avg 91
H02/05
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-25
34-26
21-18
18-20
32-23
23-38
32-13
35-24
16-26
33-21
29-19
25-30
24-19
21-24
22-27
23-30
27-16
26-32
21-18
24-21
24-17
29-19
18-23
30-26
16-28
26-29
16-16
25-27
20-35
32-26
25-29
25-9
22-20
22-20
20-31
19-30
28-23
22-21
28-20
11-20
190.3Avg total
96.4Scored
93.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (89)101.997.9199.7+4.067%
Season at home (45)104.097.9201.9+6.278%
Season away (44)99.797.8197.5+1.857%
Last 10 (10)96.493.9190.3+2.570%
Last 5 (5)91.693.8185.4-2.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)97.5110.5208.0-13.00%
vs Similar ◀ (19)98.997.5196.4+1.463%
vs Weaker (9)106.196.2202.3+9.989%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Orlando Magic
#20
W
118-96
118
96
+22
120avg 92
H10/04
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#14
W
99-93
99
93
+6
87avg 92
A12/04
NBA
Boston Celtics
#9
L
88-98
88
98
-10
73avg 92
A14/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
W
123-91
123
91
+32
121avg 92
H17/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
W
115-103
115
103
+12
109avg 92
H20/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
L
80-96
80
96
-16
67avg 92
A23/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
L
85-89
85
89
-4
78avg 92
A25/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
L
88-90
88
90
-2
80avg 92
H28/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
W
97-90
97
90
+7
86avg 92
A30/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
W
106-73
106
73
+33
105avg 92
H01/05
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-28
25-21
33-20
29-27
19-17
31-33
21-19
28-24
35-13
27-25
5-25
21-35
41-22
26-28
30-24
26-17
29-29
43-31
19-18
24-25
28-29
16-20
14-26
22-21
26-19
13-29
22-21
24-20
25-28
22-21
24-16
17-25
27-24
32-26
16-20
22-20
29-18
25-24
29-11
23-20
191.8Avg total
99.9Scored
91.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (89)100.097.8197.7+2.258%
Season at home (45)103.697.1200.7+6.669%
Season away (44)96.298.5194.7-2.248%
Last 10 (10)99.991.9191.8+8.060%
Last 5 (5)91.287.6178.8+3.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)105.0106.5211.5-1.550%
vs Similar ◀ (19)104.297.5201.7+6.658%
vs Weaker (9)110.0103.4213.4+6.678%
This opponent (Toronto Raptors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: +6.3+6.3Q2Q2: +1.2+1.2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q3Q3: +1.8+1.8Q3: +1.3+1.3Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: +0.2+0.2
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: +6.3+6.3Q2Q2: +1.2+1.2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q3Q3: +1.8+1.8Q3: +1.3+1.3Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: +0.2+0.2
Toronto RaptorsMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Toronto RaptorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#24
W
54-51
54
51
+3
A10/04
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#30
L
55-61
55
61
-6
H12/04
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
49-47
49
47
+2
A14/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
45-43
45
43
+2
H16/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
53-48
53
48
+5
H18/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
53-36
53
36
+17
A21/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
L
42-57
42
57
-15
A23/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
L
52-61
52
61
-9
H26/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
44-40
44
40
+4
A29/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
50-44
50
44
+6
H02/05
NBA
98.5Avg total
49.7Scored
48.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)50.449.199.5+1.360%-
Last 30 at home (17)52.350.4102.6+1.965%-
Last 30 away (13)47.947.595.4+0.554%-
Last 10 (10)49.748.898.5+0.970%-
Last 5 (5)48.247.695.8+0.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)47.058.0105.0-11.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (19)50.946.897.7+4.274%-
vs Weaker (9)50.052.0102.0-2.044%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Orlando Magic
#20
W
56-49
56
49
+7
H10/04
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#14
D
50-50
50
50
+0
A12/04
NBA
Boston Celtics
#9
W
62-38
62
38
+24
A14/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
W
67-50
67
50
+17
H17/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
W
72-60
72
60
+12
H20/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
L
44-49
44
49
-5
A23/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
L
39-48
39
48
-9
A25/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
L
47-49
47
49
-2
H28/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
W
59-50
59
50
+9
A30/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
W
54-42
54
42
+12
H01/05
NBA
103.5Avg total
55.0Scored
48.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.550.1104.6+4.457%-
Last 30 at home (15)56.750.3107.1+6.467%-
Last 30 away (15)52.349.9102.2+2.347%-
Last 10 (10)55.048.5103.5+6.560%-
Last 5 (5)48.647.696.2+1.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)56.050.0106.0+6.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (19)53.350.7103.9+2.647%-
vs Weaker (9)56.849.0105.8+7.878%-
This opponent (Toronto Raptors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Toronto Raptorstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Toronto Raptors: 98.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀25%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.8 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.6 pts a game · 25% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.2 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 102.3 points a game
58%
25%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.527.4
48.5%
49.0%54.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.78.2
31.9%
35.3%24.6
🏀 Free throws26.019.2
73.8%
75.5%19.2
They take 82.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 31% of their shots are threes (league average: 29%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 99.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀62%
🏀🏀🏀22%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers62.2 pts a game · 62% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.9 pts a game · 22% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.8 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 102.3 points a game
58%
25%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.031.1
51.0%
49.0%62.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.27.3
36.1%
35.3%21.9
🏀 Free throws20.815.8
76.0%
75.5%15.8
They take 81.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 20.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 25% of their shots are threes (league average: 29%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 May 2016 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Toronto Raptors
WLWLWWLWWW
Miami Heat
WWLLLWWLWW
#5
League position
#8
+3.6
Net rating
+8.6
106.3
Offensive rating
107.3
102.8
Defensive rating
98.7
48.3%
Effective FG%
51.8%
48.7%
Opp. effective FG%
44.1%
13.6%
Turnover %
12.3%
30.4%
Off. rebound %
23.7%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.26
31.9%
3-point %
36.1%
50.8%
Assist %
49.7%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence106.3 · 107.3Defence102.8 · 98.7Shooting48.3% · 51.8%3-point %31.9% · 36.1%Ball care13.6% · 12.3%Off. rebounds30.4% · 23.7%Free throws0.32 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)70% · 60%
■ Toronto Raptors   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Toronto Raptors wins
5
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/05/16HIndiana Pacers89-84
29/04/16AIndiana Pacers83-101
26/04/16HIndiana Pacers102-99
23/04/16AIndiana Pacers83-100
21/04/16AIndiana Pacers101-85
18/04/16HIndiana Pacers98-87
16/04/16HIndiana Pacers90-100
14/04/16ABrooklyn Nets103-96
12/04/16HPhiladelphia 76ers122-98
10/04/16ANew York Knicks93-89
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/05/16HCharlotte Hornets106-73
30/04/16ACharlotte Hornets97-90
28/04/16HCharlotte Hornets88-90
25/04/16ACharlotte Hornets85-89
23/04/16ACharlotte Hornets80-96
20/04/16HCharlotte Hornets115-103
17/04/16HCharlotte Hornets123-91
14/04/16ABoston Celtics88-98
12/04/16ADetroit Pistons99-93
10/04/16HOrlando Magic118-96

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Toronto Raptors
NBA 2015-16
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW67%
HomeWLWWW78%
AwayWWWLL57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games894544
Win %67%78%57%
Points / game101.9104.099.7
Allowed / game97.997.997.8
Point differential+4.0+6.2+1.8
Avg total199.7201.9197.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+34%33%34%
Close games (≤5 pts) won59% (27)65% (17)50% (10)
Overtime %4%2%7%
Miami Heat
NBA 2015-16
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW58%
HomeWWWLW69%
AwayWLLLW48%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games894544
Win %58%69%48%
Points / game100.0103.696.2
Allowed / game97.897.198.5
Point differential+2.2+6.6-2.2
Avg total197.7200.7194.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%42%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (21)70% (10)64% (11)
Overtime %7%7%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Golden State Warriors88781089%114.6103.4+11.2
2 San Antonio Spurs88721682%103.792.4+11.3
3 Cleveland Cavaliers87622571%104.398.1+6.2
4 Oklahoma City Thunder89602967%110.0102.6+7.4
5 Toronto Raptors89602967%101.997.9+4.0
6 Los Angeles Clippers88553362%104.1100.0+4.1
7 Atlanta Hawks89523758%102.698.9+3.7
8 Miami Heat89523758%100.097.8+2.2
9 Charlotte Hornets89513857%102.4100.6+1.8
10 Boston Celtics88503857%104.9102.4+2.5
11 Indiana Pacers89484154%101.599.8+1.7
12 Portland Trail Blazers89484154%104.6104.1+0.6
13 Chicago Bulls82424051%101.6103.1-1.5
14 Detroit Pistons86444251%101.6101.5+0.2
15 Washington Wizards82414150%104.1104.6-0.5
16 Dallas Mavericks87434449%101.8103.1-1.3
17 Memphis Grizzlies86424449%98.3101.4-3.2
18 Utah Jazz82404249%97.795.9+1.8
19 Houston Rockets87424548%105.7106.6-0.9
20 Orlando Magic82354743%102.1103.7-1.6
21 Sacramento Kings82334940%106.6109.1-2.5
22 Denver Nuggets82334940%101.9105.0-3.1
23 Milwaukee Bucks82334940%99.0103.2-4.2
24 New York Knicks82325039%98.4101.1-2.7
25 New Orleans Pelicans82305237%102.7106.5-3.8
26 Minnesota Timberwolves82295335%102.4106.0-3.5
27 Phoenix Suns82235928%100.9107.5-6.7
28 Brooklyn Nets82216126%98.6106.0-7.4
29 Los Angeles Lakers82176521%97.3106.9-9.6
30 Philadelphia 76ers82107212%97.4107.6-10.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Toronto Raptors18252027696
Miami Heat1823272212102
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.