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Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 07 May 2016
Tip-off: 21:00
Final 91-95
19-23 21-26 28-19 23-27
Position#8
Record53-38
FormLWWWL
Points / game99.9
Allowed / game97.7
vs
Position#5
Record61-30
FormWLWLW
Points / game101.8
Allowed / game97.8
USANBANBA - Quarter-finals
NBA2015-16
Meetings · Miami Heat v Toronto Raptors
03 Mar 2027
MIA v TOR
upcoming
02 Mar 2027
MIA v TOR
upcoming
23 Dec 2025
MIA91
TOR112
15 Dec 2025
MIA96
TOR106
12 Dec 2024
MIA114
TOR104
29 Nov 2024
MIA121
TOR111
14 Apr 2024
MIA118
TOR103
12 Apr 2024
MIA125
TOR103
24 Oct 2022
MIA90
TOR98
22 Oct 2022
MIA112
TOR109
29 Jan 2022
MIA120
TOR124
17 Jan 2022
MIA104
TOR99
24 Feb 2021
MIA116
TOR108
03 Aug 2020
MIA103
TOR107
02 Jan 2020
MIA84
TOR76
10 Mar 2019
MIA104
TOR125
26 Dec 2018
MIA104
TOR106
11 Apr 2018
MIA116
TOR109
23 Mar 2017
MIA84
TOR101
11 Mar 2017
MIA104
TOR89
13 May 2016
MIA103
TOR91
09 May 2016
MIA94
TOR87
07 May 2016
MIA91
TOR95
18 Dec 2015
MIA94
TOR108
08 Nov 2015
MIA96
TOR76
11 Apr 2015
MIA104
TOR107
02 Nov 2014
MIA107
TOR102
31 Mar 2014
MIA93
TOR83
05 Jan 2014
MIA102
TOR97
23 Jan 2013
MIA123
TOR116
18 Apr 2012
MIA96
TOR72
05 Feb 2012
MIA95
TOR89
22 Jan 2011
MIA120
TOR103
13 Nov 2010
MIA109
TOR100
28 Mar 2010
MIA97
TOR94
15 Dec 2009
MIA115
TOR95
19 Nov 2008
MIA95
TOR101
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Toronto Raptors winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Boston Celtics
#9
L
88-98
88
98
-10
73avg 92
A14/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
W
123-91
123
91
+32
121avg 92
H17/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
W
115-103
115
103
+12
109avg 92
H20/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
L
80-96
80
96
-16
67avg 92
A23/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
L
85-89
85
89
-4
78avg 92
A25/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
L
88-90
88
90
-2
80avg 92
H28/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
W
97-90
97
90
+7
86avg 92
A30/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
W
106-73
106
73
+33
105avg 92
H01/05
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
W
102-96 OT
102
96
+6
87avg 92
A04/05
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
L
92-96 OT
92
96
-4
83avg 92
A06/05
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
35-13
27-25
5-25
21-35
41-22
26-28
30-24
26-17
29-29
43-31
19-18
24-25
28-29
16-20
14-26
22-21
26-19
13-29
22-21
24-20
25-28
22-21
24-16
17-25
27-24
32-26
16-20
22-20
29-18
25-24
29-11
23-20
18-18
23-25
27-20
22-27
19-29
22-19
24-15
21-23
189.8Avg total
97.6Scored
92.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (91)99.997.7197.6+2.258%
Season at home (45)103.697.1200.7+6.669%
Season away (46)96.398.3194.6-2.148%
Last 10 (10)97.692.2189.8+5.450%
Last 5 (5)97.089.0186.0+8.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)105.0106.5211.5-1.550%
vs Similar ◀ (20)102.296.7198.9+5.555%
vs Weaker (8)110.2104.9215.1+5.475%
This opponent (Toronto Raptors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Toronto RaptorsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRaptors
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
103-96
103
96
+7
97avg 91
A14/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
L
90-100
90
100
-10
80avg 91
H16/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
98-87
98
87
+11
90avg 91
H18/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
101-85
101
85
+16
85avg 91
A21/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
L
83-100
83
100
-17
67avg 91
A23/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
102-99
102
99
+3
85avg 91
H26/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
L
83-101
83
101
-18
66avg 91
A29/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
89-84
89
84
+5
76avg 91
H02/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#8
L
96-102 OT
96
102
-6
82avg 91
H04/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#8
W
96-92 OT
96
92
+4
71avg 91
H06/05
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-26
33-21
29-19
25-30
24-19
21-24
22-27
23-30
27-16
26-32
21-18
24-21
24-17
29-19
18-23
30-26
16-28
26-29
16-16
25-27
20-35
32-26
25-29
25-9
22-20
22-20
20-31
19-30
28-23
22-21
28-20
11-20
18-18
25-23
20-27
27-22
29-19
19-22
15-24
23-21
188.7Avg total
94.1Scored
94.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (91)101.897.8199.6+3.967%
Season at home (47)103.797.8201.5+5.977%
Season away (44)99.797.8197.5+1.857%
Last 10 (10)94.194.6188.7-0.560%
Last 5 (5)93.295.6188.8-2.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)97.5110.5208.0-13.00%
vs Similar ◀ (19)97.295.7192.9+1.563%
vs Weaker (9)106.196.2202.3+9.989%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +4.8+4.8Q1: +0.3+0.3Q2Q2: +0.1+0.1Q2: +1.8+1.8Q3Q3: +1.4+1.4Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: -0.4-0.4
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +4.8+4.8Q1: +0.3+0.3Q2Q2: +0.1+0.1Q2: +1.8+1.8Q3Q3: +1.4+1.4Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: -0.4-0.4
Miami HeatToronto Raptors
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boston Celtics
#9
W
62-38
62
38
+24
A14/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
W
67-50
67
50
+17
H17/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
W
72-60
72
60
+12
H20/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
L
44-49
44
49
-5
A23/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
L
39-48
39
48
-9
A25/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
L
47-49
47
49
-2
H28/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
W
59-50
59
50
+9
A30/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
W
54-42
54
42
+12
H01/05
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
L
41-43
41
43
-2
A04/05
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
L
41-48
41
48
-7
A06/05
NBA
100.3Avg total
52.6Scored
47.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)53.249.7102.8+3.550%-
Last 30 at home (13)56.150.0106.1+6.162%-
Last 30 away (17)50.949.4100.4+1.541%-
Last 10 (10)52.647.7100.3+4.950%-
Last 5 (5)48.446.494.8+2.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)56.050.0106.0+6.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (20)51.549.6101.1+1.940%-
vs Weaker (8)56.849.8106.5+7.075%-
This opponent (Toronto Raptors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Toronto RaptorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
49-47
49
47
+2
A14/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
45-43
45
43
+2
H16/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
53-48
53
48
+5
H18/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
53-36
53
36
+17
A21/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
L
42-57
42
57
-15
A23/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
L
52-61
52
61
-9
H26/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
44-40
44
40
+4
A29/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
50-44
50
44
+6
H02/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#8
W
43-41
43
41
+2
H04/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#8
W
48-41
48
41
+7
H06/05
NBA
93.7Avg total
47.9Scored
45.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)49.548.497.9+1.160%-
Last 30 at home (17)50.649.199.8+1.565%-
Last 30 away (13)47.947.595.4+0.554%-
Last 10 (10)47.945.893.7+2.180%-
Last 5 (5)47.445.492.8+2.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)47.058.0105.0-11.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (19)49.545.795.2+3.874%-
vs Weaker (9)50.052.0102.0-2.044%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 97.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀63%
🏀🏀🏀22%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.8 pts a game · 63% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.9 pts a game · 22% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.9 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 102.3 points a game
58%
25%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers63.830.9
48.4%
49.0%61.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.77.3
39.0%
35.3%21.9
🏀 Free throws19.013.9
73.2%
75.5%13.9
They take 82.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 18.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 23% of their shots are threes (league average: 29%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Toronto Raptorstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Toronto Raptors: 97.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀59%
🏀🏀🏀23%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.4 pts a game · 59% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.2 pts a game · 23% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.8 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 102.3 points a game
58%
25%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.428.7
47.5%
49.0%57.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.47.4
29.1%
35.3%22.2
🏀 Free throws24.417.8
73.0%
75.5%17.8
They take 85.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 30% of their shots are threes (league average: 29%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 07 May 2016 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LWWWLLLWWL
Toronto Raptors
WLWLWLWWLW
#8
League position
#5
+5.7
Net rating
+1.5
103.7
Offensive rating
102.7
98.0
Defensive rating
101.2
50.7%
Effective FG%
46.4%
44.0%
Opp. effective FG%
50.1%
13.5%
Turnover %
13.4%
25.0%
Off. rebound %
29.9%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.28
39.0%
3-point %
29.1%
45.5%
Assist %
48.2%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence103.7 · 102.7Defence98.0 · 101.2Shooting50.7% · 46.4%3-point %39.0% · 29.1%Ball care13.5% · 13.4%Off. rebounds25.0% · 29.9%Free throws0.23 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)50% · 60%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Toronto Raptors
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Miami Heat wins
6
Toronto Raptors wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/05/16AToronto Raptors92-96 OT
04/05/16AToronto Raptors102-96 OT
01/05/16HCharlotte Hornets106-73
30/04/16ACharlotte Hornets97-90
28/04/16HCharlotte Hornets88-90
25/04/16ACharlotte Hornets85-89
23/04/16ACharlotte Hornets80-96
20/04/16HCharlotte Hornets115-103
17/04/16HCharlotte Hornets123-91
14/04/16ABoston Celtics88-98
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/05/16HMiami Heat96-92 OT
04/05/16HMiami Heat96-102 OT
02/05/16HIndiana Pacers89-84
29/04/16AIndiana Pacers83-101
26/04/16HIndiana Pacers102-99
23/04/16AIndiana Pacers83-100
21/04/16AIndiana Pacers101-85
18/04/16HIndiana Pacers98-87
16/04/16HIndiana Pacers90-100
14/04/16ABrooklyn Nets103-96

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2015-16
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL58%
HomeWWWLW69%
AwayLLWWL48%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games914546
Win %58%69%48%
Points / game99.9103.696.3
Allowed / game97.797.198.3
Point differential+2.2+6.6-2.1
Avg total197.6200.7194.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%42%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won64% (22)70% (10)58% (12)
Overtime %9%7%11%
Toronto Raptors
NBA 2015-16
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW67%
HomeWWWLW77%
AwayWWWLL57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games914744
Win %67%77%57%
Points / game101.8103.799.7
Allowed / game97.897.897.8
Point differential+3.9+5.9+1.8
Avg total199.6201.5197.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%32%34%
Close games (≤5 pts) won61% (28)67% (18)50% (10)
Overtime %7%6%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Golden State Warriors89791089%114.6103.4+11.2
2 San Antonio Spurs89731682%103.692.4+11.2
3 Cleveland Cavaliers89642572%104.798.2+6.5
4 Toronto Raptors91613067%101.897.8+3.9
5 Oklahoma City Thunder90603067%109.8102.6+7.3
6 Los Angeles Clippers88553362%104.1100.0+4.1
7 Miami Heat91533858%99.997.7+2.2
8 Charlotte Hornets89513857%102.4100.6+1.8
9 Atlanta Hawks91523957%102.699.4+3.2
10 Boston Celtics88503857%104.9102.4+2.5
11 Indiana Pacers89484154%101.599.8+1.7
12 Portland Trail Blazers90484253%104.6104.1+0.4
13 Chicago Bulls82424051%101.6103.1-1.5
14 Detroit Pistons86444251%101.6101.5+0.2
15 Washington Wizards82414150%104.1104.6-0.5
16 Dallas Mavericks87434449%101.8103.1-1.3
17 Memphis Grizzlies86424449%98.3101.4-3.2
18 Utah Jazz82404249%97.795.9+1.8
19 Houston Rockets87424548%105.7106.6-0.9
20 Orlando Magic82354743%102.1103.7-1.6
21 Sacramento Kings82334940%106.6109.1-2.5
22 Denver Nuggets82334940%101.9105.0-3.1
23 Milwaukee Bucks82334940%99.0103.2-4.2
24 New York Knicks82325039%98.4101.1-2.7
25 New Orleans Pelicans82305237%102.7106.5-3.8
26 Minnesota Timberwolves82295335%102.4106.0-3.5
27 Phoenix Suns82235928%100.9107.5-6.7
28 Brooklyn Nets82216126%98.6106.0-7.4
29 Los Angeles Lakers82176521%97.3106.9-9.6
30 Philadelphia 76ers82107212%97.4107.6-10.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat1921282391
Toronto Raptors2326192795
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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