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NC State vs Duke Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 03 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 64-93
0-0 30-47 0-0 34-46
Position#128
Record19-10
FormLLWLL
Points / game84.2
Allowed / game75.1
NC State
USA
vs
Duke 🏆
USA
Position#8
Record27-2
FormWWWWW
Points / game82.8
Allowed / game62.5
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · NC State v Duke
02 Mar 2026
NC S64
DUKE93
04 Mar 2024
NC S64
DUKE79
04 Jan 2023
NC S84
DUKE60
13 Feb 2021
NC S53
DUKE69
19 Feb 2020
NC S88
DUKE66
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

NC State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Duke winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NC StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pittsburgh
#282
W
81-72
81
72
+9
A24/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
88-68
88
68
+20
H28/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
96-78
96
78
+18
A31/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
84-83
84
83
+1
A04/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
82-73
82
73
+9
H07/02
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
77-118
77
118
-41
A10/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
76-77
76
77
-1
H14/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
82-58
82
58
+24
H18/02
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
61-90
61
90
-29
A25/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
L
90-96 OT
90
96
-6
A28/02
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
34-33
0-0
47-39
0-0
41-37
0-0
47-31
0-0
49-31
0-0
47-47
0-0
34-42
0-0
50-41
0-0
36-24
0-0
46-49
0-0
36-56
0-0
41-62
0-0
42-37
0-0
34-40
0-0
42-26
0-0
40-32
0-0
19-32
0-0
42-58
0-0
44-38
0-0
37-43
163.0Avg total
81.7Scored
81.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)84.275.1159.3+9.166%
Season at home (17)84.168.8152.9+15.371%
Season away (12)84.384.0168.3+0.358%
Last 10 (10)81.781.3163.0+0.460%
Last 5 (5)77.287.8165.0-10.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)77.0118.0195.0-41.00%
vs Similar (15)79.476.3155.7+3.153%
vs Weaker (14)88.970.6159.4+18.379%
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DukeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisville
#53
W
83-52
83
52
+31
H27/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
72-58
72
58
+14
A31/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
67-49
67
49
+18
H04/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
68-71
68
71
-3
A07/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
70-54
70
54
+16
A11/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
67-54
67
54
+13
H14/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
101-64
101
64
+37
H17/02
NCAA
Michigan
#6
W
68-63
68
63
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
100-56
100
56
+44
A25/02
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
77-51
77
51
+26
H28/02
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
38-28
0-0
45-24
0-0
40-31
0-0
32-27
0-0
42-27
0-0
25-22
0-0
41-29
0-0
27-42
0-0
35-29
0-0
35-25
0-0
31-26
0-0
36-28
0-0
40-24
0-0
61-40
0-0
35-33
0-0
33-30
0-0
54-22
0-0
46-34
0-0
41-26
0-0
36-25
134.5Avg total
77.3Scored
57.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)82.862.5145.3+20.393%
Season at home (18)83.762.1145.7+21.694%
Season away (11)81.563.2144.6+18.391%
Last 10 (10)77.357.2134.5+20.190%
Last 5 (5)82.657.6140.2+25.0100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)67.564.5132.0+3.0100%
vs Weaker ◀ (28)83.462.6146.0+20.889%
This opponent (NC State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-15-8+0+8+15Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +2.1+2.1Q2: +12.2+12.2Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: +7.9+7.9
-15-8+0+8+15Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +2.1+2.1Q2: +12.2+12.2Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: +7.9+7.9
NC StateDuke
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NC StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pittsburgh
#282
W
34-33
34
33
+1
A24/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
41-37
41
37
+4
H28/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
49-31
49
31
+18
A31/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
34-42
34
42
-8
A04/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
36-24
36
24
+12
H07/02
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
36-56
36
56
-20
A10/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
42-37
42
37
+5
H14/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
42-26
42
26
+16
H18/02
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
19-32
19
32
-13
A25/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
44-38
44
38
+6
A28/02
NCAA
73.3Avg total
37.7Scored
35.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.033.672.5+5.473%-
Last 30 at home (17)39.531.370.8+8.282%-
Last 30 away (13)38.236.574.8+1.762%-
Last 10 (10)37.735.673.3+2.170%-
Last 5 (5)36.637.874.4-1.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)36.056.092.0-20.00%-
vs Similar (15)35.033.568.5+1.553%-
vs Weaker (14)43.432.175.5+11.4100%-
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DukeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisville
#53
W
38-28
38
28
+10
H27/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
40-31
40
31
+9
A31/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
42-27
42
27
+15
H04/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
41-29
41
29
+12
A07/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
35-29
35
29
+6
A11/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
31-26
31
26
+5
H14/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
40-24
40
24
+16
H17/02
NCAA
Michigan
#6
W
35-33
35
33
+2
H21/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
54-22
54
22
+32
A25/02
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
41-26
41
26
+15
H28/02
NCAA
67.2Avg total
39.7Scored
27.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.830.371.1+10.583%-
Last 30 at home (19)41.129.670.7+11.589%-
Last 30 away (11)40.331.671.9+8.673%-
Last 10 (10)39.727.567.2+12.2100%-
Last 5 (5)40.226.266.4+14.0100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)35.528.564.0+7.0100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (28)41.230.571.6+10.782%-
This opponent (NC State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
NC State wins
6
Duke wins
DateGameScore
28/01/25Duke v NC State74-64
31/03/24Duke v NC State64-76
14/03/24Duke v NC State69-74
05/03/24NC State v Duke64-79
01/03/23Duke v NC State71-67
05/01/23NC State v Duke84-60
15/01/22Duke v NC State88-73
13/02/21NC State v Duke53-69
03/03/20Duke v NC State88-69
20/02/20NC State v Duke88-66
NC Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/02/26ANotre Dame90-96 OT
25/02/26AVirginia61-90
18/02/26HNorth Carolina82-58
14/02/26HMiami (FL)76-77
10/02/26ALouisville77-118
07/02/26HVirginia Tech82-73
04/02/26ASMU Mustangs84-83
31/01/26AWake Forest96-78
28/01/26HSyracuse88-68
24/01/26APittsburgh81-72
Dukelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/02/26HVirginia77-51
25/02/26ANotre Dame100-56
21/02/26HMichigan68-63
17/02/26HSyracuse101-64
14/02/26HClemson67-54
11/02/26APittsburgh70-54
07/02/26ANorth Carolina68-71
04/02/26HBoston College67-49
31/01/26AVirginia Tech72-58
27/01/26HLouisville83-52

📊 11. Overall Statistics

NC State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL66%
HomeLWWLW71%
AwayWWLLL58%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291712
Win %66%71%58%
Points / game84.284.184.3
Allowed / game75.168.884.0
Point differential+9.1+15.3+0.3
Avg total159.3152.9168.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+45%59%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)0% (3)67% (3)
Overtime %10%6%17%
Duke
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW93%
HomeWWWWW94%
AwayWWLWW91%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291811
Win %93%94%91%
Points / game82.883.781.5
Allowed / game62.562.163.2
Point differential+20.3+21.6+18.3
Avg total145.3145.7144.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+69%72%64%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)67% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke2927293%82.862.5+20.3
2 Virginia3025583%80.369.3+11.0
3 Miami (FL)2923679%82.770.0+12.7
4 North Carolina2923679%80.971.1+9.8
5 Clemson2921872%74.765.9+8.8
6 Louisville2920969%86.072.2+13.7
7 California2920969%77.772.6+5.2
8 NC State29191066%84.275.1+9.1
9 SMU Mustangs29191066%85.878.0+7.8
10 Virginia Tech29181162%78.974.6+4.3
11 Stanford29181162%75.872.4+3.3
12 Florida State29151452%79.777.6+2.1
13 Wake Forest29151452%79.177.1+2.1
14 Syracuse29151452%75.973.9+2.0
15 Notre Dame29131645%74.574.9-0.4
16 Pittsburgh29111838%70.071.2-1.2
17 Georgia Tech29111838%74.077.4-3.4
18 Boston College29101934%67.270.7-3.4
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
NC State03003464
Duke04704693
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