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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 30 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Scheduled
Position#12
Record8-5
FormWWLLL
Points / game111.2
Allowed / game107.4
vs
Form · last 5 games
4.4/10
Below normal
3.9/10
Below normal
Position#30
Record1-12
FormLLLLL
Points / game106.2
Allowed / game120.2
USANBA· Paycom Center
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Oklahoma City Thunder v Milwaukee Bucks
29 Dec 2026
OKC v MIL
upcoming
12 Feb 2026
OKC93
MIL110
03 Feb 2025
OKC125
MIL96
12 Apr 2024
OKC125
MIL107
09 Nov 2022
OKC132
MIL136
08 Mar 2022
OKC115
MIL142
14 Feb 2021
OKC114
MIL109
10 Nov 2019
OKC119
MIL121
27 Jan 2019
OKC118
MIL112
29 Dec 2017
OKC95
MIL97
04 Apr 2017
OKC110
MIL79
29 Dec 2015
OKC131
MIL123
09 Dec 2014
OKC114
MIL101
11 Jan 2014
OKC101
MIL85
17 Apr 2013
OKC89
MIL95
13 Apr 2011
OKC106
MIL110
27 Nov 2009
OKC108
MIL90
29 Oct 2008
OKC87
MIL98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Oklahoma City Thunder win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Milwaukee Bucks win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Oklahoma City ThunderUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormThunder
Date
Competition
Phoenix Suns
#18
W
125-114
125
114
+11
119avg 104
H27/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#14
L
96-120
96
120
-24
76avg 104
A29/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
L
98-119
98
119
-21
72avg 104
A01/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#17
W
117-112
117
112
+5
95avg 104
A03/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#17
W
124-116
124
116
+8
116avg 104
H05/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#8
W
128-97
128
97
+31
117avg 104
A07/11
NBA
Washington Wizards
#23
W
114-75
114
75
+39
114avg 104
H08/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#6
L
103-123
103
123
-20
93avg 104
A11/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#6
L
108-118
108
118
-10
94avg 104
A12/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#25
L
112-113
112
113
-1
103avg 104
A14/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
33-27
34-26
32-32
26-29
30-33
29-32
22-29
15-26
26-35
25-27
24-30
23-27
26-30
33-18
31-36
27-28
37-20
23-24
28-30
36-42
35-28
36-21
27-27
30-21
25-19
32-17
33-23
24-16
27-26
32-33
21-38
23-26
32-28
18-28
35-32
23-30
27-33
17-24
40-25
28-31
223.2Avg total
112.5Scored
110.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)111.2107.4218.5+3.862%
Season at home (5)113.498.0211.4+15.4100%
Season away (8)109.8113.2223.0-3.538%
Last 10 (10)112.5110.7223.2+1.850%
Last 5 (5)113.0105.2218.2+7.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)114.0106.7220.7+7.367%
vs Similar (13)108.2112.5220.7-4.246%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)117.1107.3224.4+9.879%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#21
W
110-102
110
102
+8
103avg 99
H27/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
L
100-132
100
132
-32
74avg 99
H29/10
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#17
L
111-136
111
136
-25
88avg 99
H01/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
100-112
100
112
-12
84avg 99
A03/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
102-109
102
109
-7
92avg 99
A05/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#19
L
107-121
107
121
-14
94avg 99
H07/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
97-117
97
117
-20
79avg 99
H09/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#16
L
85-117
85
117
-32
62avg 99
A11/11
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#2
L
112-123
112
123
-11
102avg 99
H12/11
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
L
99-107
99
107
-8
79avg 99
A14/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-29
19-32
34-24
26-17
21-23
14-34
34-38
31-37
25-24
21-48
30-37
35-27
18-29
29-19
29-32
24-32
14-28
27-34
38-25
23-22
29-24
31-27
27-38
20-32
27-25
18-33
29-33
23-26
21-26
13-32
38-27
13-32
28-30
22-31
23-33
39-29
15-23
22-29
35-32
27-23
219.9Avg total
102.3Scored
117.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)106.2120.2226.4-14.18%
Season at home (7)108.9123.3232.1-14.414%
Season away (6)103.0116.7219.7-13.70%
Last 10 (10)102.3117.6219.9-15.310%
Last 5 (5)100.0117.0217.0-17.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)104.9122.1227.0-17.39%
vs Similar (7)117.7114.4232.1+3.357%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Oklahoma City Thunder) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-13-6+0+6+13Q1Q1: +1.9+1.9Q1: -3.2-3.2Q2Q2: +2.9+2.9Q2: -10.3-10.3Q3Q3: -0.9-0.9Q3: -0.2-0.2Q4Q4: -2.1-2.1Q4: -1.6-1.6
-13-6+0+6+13Q1Q1: +1.9+1.9Q1: -3.2-3.2Q2Q2: +2.9+2.9Q2: -10.3-10.3Q3Q3: -0.9-0.9Q3: -0.2-0.2Q4Q4: -2.1-2.1Q4: -1.6-1.6
Oklahoma City ThunderMilwaukee Bucks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Oklahoma City ThunderLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Phoenix Suns
#18
W
67-53
67
53
+14
H27/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#14
L
59-65
59
65
-6
A29/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
L
51-62
51
62
-11
A01/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#17
W
59-48
59
48
+11
A03/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#17
W
60-44
60
44
+16
H05/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#8
W
71-49
71
49
+22
A07/11
NBA
Washington Wizards
#23
W
57-36
57
36
+21
H08/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#6
D
59-59
59
59
+0
A11/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#6
L
50-56
50
56
-6
A12/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#25
L
44-57
44
57
-13
A14/11
NBA
110.6Avg total
57.7Scored
52.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.753.6110.3+3.050%-
Last 30 at home (14)57.151.8108.9+5.357%-
Last 30 away (16)56.355.2111.6+1.144%-
Last 10 (10)57.752.9110.6+4.850%-
Last 5 (5)56.251.4107.6+4.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)62.351.7114.0+10.767%-
vs Similar (13)54.553.6108.1+0.838%-
vs Weaker ◀ (14)57.554.1111.6+3.457%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#21
L
50-61
50
61
-11
H27/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
L
35-57
35
57
-22
H29/10
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#17
L
46-72
46
72
-26
H01/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
47-48
47
48
-1
A03/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
41-62
41
62
-21
A05/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#19
W
60-51
60
51
+9
H07/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
45-58
45
58
-13
H09/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#16
L
34-58
34
58
-24
A11/11
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#2
L
50-61
50
61
-11
H12/11
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
L
37-52
37
52
-15
A14/11
NBA
102.5Avg total
44.5Scored
58.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)51.259.7111.0-8.530%-
Last 30 at home (15)53.860.2114.0-6.440%-
Last 30 away (15)48.759.3107.9-10.620%-
Last 10 (10)44.558.0102.5-13.510%-
Last 5 (5)45.256.0101.2-10.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)49.360.5109.8-11.322%-
vs Similar (7)57.757.1114.9+0.657%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Oklahoma City Thunder) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Oklahoma City Thundertheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Oklahoma City Thunder: 108.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.8 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.3 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.8 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.428.4
50.4%
54.0%56.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.511.1
34.2%
35.1%33.3
🏀 Free throws22.618.8
83.2%
77.3%18.8
They take 88.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 113.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀44%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.2 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers49.2 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.7 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.824.6
56.2%
54.0%49.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.416.4
37.8%
35.1%49.2
🏀 Free throws20.914.7
70.3%
77.3%14.7
They take 87.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 43.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 30 Dec 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Oklahoma City Thunder
LLLWWWWLLW
Milwaukee Bucks
LLLLLLLLLW
#12
League position
#30
-1.1
Net rating
-6.8
104.8
Offensive rating
105.9
105.9
Defensive rating
112.7
50.7%
Effective FG%
56.4%
51.7%
Opp. effective FG%
55.4%
13.1%
Turnover %
15.8%
25.5%
Off. rebound %
15.2%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.24
34.2%
3-point %
37.8%
57.5%
Assist %
66.1%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
10%

Profile

Offence104.8 · 105.9Defence105.9 · 112.7Shooting50.7% · 56.4%3-point %34.2% · 37.8%Ball care13.1% · 15.8%Off. rebounds25.5% · 15.2%Free throws0.25 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)50% · 10%
■ Oklahoma City Thunder   ■ Milwaukee Bucks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ALos Angeles Clippers112-113
12/11/26APortland Trail Blazers108-118
11/11/26APortland Trail Blazers103-123
08/11/26HWashington Wizards114-75
07/11/26AMemphis Grizzlies128-97
05/11/26HCleveland Cavaliers124-116
03/11/26ACleveland Cavaliers117-112
01/11/26AHouston Rockets98-119
29/10/26ADallas Mavericks96-120
27/10/26HPhoenix Suns125-114
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AOrlando Magic99-107
12/11/26HLos Angeles Lakers112-123
11/11/26ANew York Knicks85-117
09/11/26HBoston Celtics97-117
07/11/26HToronto Raptors107-121
05/11/26ABoston Celtics102-109
03/11/26AMinnesota Timberwolves100-112
01/11/26HCleveland Cavaliers111-136
29/10/26HHouston Rockets100-132
27/10/26HIndiana Pacers110-102

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL62%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWWLLL38%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1358
Win %62%100%38%
Points / game111.2113.4109.8
Allowed / game107.498.0113.2
Point differential+3.8+15.4-3.5
Avg total218.5211.4223.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%60%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL8%
HomeLLLLL14%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1376
Win %8%14%0%
Points / game106.2108.9103.0
Allowed / game120.2123.3116.7
Point differential-14.1-14.4-13.7
Avg total226.4232.1219.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 San Antonio Spurs1311285%119.5106.2+13.2
2 Los Angeles Lakers1311285%122.2114.2+7.9
3 Boston Celtics1210283%114.2103.1+11.2
4 Philadelphia 76ers1411379%112.6110.4+2.1
5 Houston Rockets1310377%116.2107.4+8.8
6 Portland Trail Blazers129375%119.6111.8+7.8
7 Minnesota Timberwolves139469%118.3106.8+11.5
8 Memphis Grizzlies139469%120.6111.7+8.9
9 Detroit Pistons128467%115.7110.2+5.4
10 Denver Nuggets117464%114.6112.8+1.8
11 Golden State Warriors138562%116.7112.4+4.3
12 Oklahoma City Thunder138562%111.2107.4+3.8
13 Atlanta Hawks137654%118.2116.8+1.3
14 Dallas Mavericks137654%113.5113.3+0.2
15 Miami Heat137654%118.7119.8-1.2
16 New York Knicks126650%109.8103.7+6.1
17 Cleveland Cavaliers147750%117.5115.9+1.6
18 Phoenix Suns115645%111.7116.1-4.4
19 Toronto Raptors125742%114.2112.8+1.4
20 Orlando Magic125742%108.3112.8-4.4
21 Indiana Pacers145936%112.1114.5-2.4
22 Charlotte Hornets124833%98.6109.6-11.0
23 Washington Wizards134931%110.0115.8-5.8
24 New Orleans Pelicans1441029%115.9124.9-9.1
25 Los Angeles Clippers113827%112.3117.5-5.3
26 Brooklyn Nets123925%110.2116.4-6.2
27 Chicago Bulls123925%114.6125.9-11.3
28 Sacramento Kings121118%108.2120.9-12.8
29 Utah Jazz131128%107.5118.6-11.2
30 Milwaukee Bucks131128%106.2120.2-14.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
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