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Milwaukee Bucks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 17 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 105-121
26-24 15-29 33-39 31-29
Position#13
Record36-28
FormLLLWW
Points / game115.0
Allowed / game112.8
Milwaukee Bucks
USA
vs
Oklahoma City Thunder 🏆
USA
Position#1
Record53-12
FormWWLWW
Points / game119.7
Allowed / game107.4
USANBA· Fiserv Forum
NBA2024-25
Meetings · Milwaukee Bucks v Oklahoma City Thunder
28 Nov 2026
MIL v OKC
upcoming
21 Jan 2026
MIL102
OKC122
16 Mar 2025
MIL105
OKC121
17 Dec 2024
MIL97
OKC81
24 Mar 2024
MIL118
OKC93
05 Nov 2022
MIL108
OKC94
19 Nov 2021
MIL96
OKC89
19 Feb 2021
MIL98
OKC85
28 Feb 2020
MIL133
OKC86
10 Apr 2019
MIL116
OKC127
31 Oct 2017
MIL91
OKC110
02 Jan 2017
MIL98
OKC94
06 Mar 2016
MIL96
OKC104
11 Nov 2014
MIL85
OKC78
16 Nov 2013
MIL79
OKC92
30 Mar 2013
MIL99
OKC109
09 Apr 2012
MIL89
OKC109
20 Nov 2010
MIL81
OKC82
02 Jan 2010
MIL103
OKC97
11 Apr 2009
MIL115
OKC98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Milwaukee Bucks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Oklahoma City Thunder winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Houston Rockets
#4
L
97-100
97
100
-3
80avg 107
A26/02
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
W
121-112
121
112
+9
114avg 107
H28/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
W
132-117
132
117
+15
136avg 107
A02/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
W
127-121
127
121
+6
122avg 107
A05/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
W
137-107
137
107
+30
142avg 107
H06/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#15
L
109-111
109
111
-2
101avg 107
H09/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
100-112
100
112
-12
87avg 107
H10/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#5
L
114-115
114
115
-1
115avg 107
A11/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
W
126-106
126
106
+20
125avg 107
H13/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#5
W
126-119
126
119
+7
130avg 107
H16/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-30
34-27
26-28
12-15
30-30
24-27
30-24
37-31
31-36
40-27
30-16
31-38
37-33
29-33
26-29
35-26
43-30
29-23
34-26
31-28
20-34
27-26
29-30
33-21
32-34
20-28
25-22
23-28
28-32
27-25
33-31
26-27
33-29
38-34
31-19
24-24
38-30
27-30
35-22
26-37
230.9Avg total
118.9Scored
112.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (64)115.0112.8227.8+2.356%
Season at home (33)118.1111.3229.4+6.767%
Season away (31)111.8114.3226.1-2.545%
Last 10 (10)118.9112.0230.9+6.960%
Last 5 (5)115.0112.6227.6+2.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)98.0118.5216.5-20.50%
vs Similar (20)118.4113.8232.2+4.760%
vs Weaker (8)119.9116.2236.1+3.675%
This opponent (Oklahoma City Thunder) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Oklahoma City ThunderUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormThunder
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#25
W
129-121
129
121
+8
125avg 109
A27/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
W
135-119
135
119
+16
131avg 109
A01/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#23
W
146-132
146
132
+14
142avg 109
A03/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
W
137-128
137
128
+9
133avg 109
H04/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
W
120-103
120
103
+17
114avg 109
A06/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
W
107-89
107
89
+18
102avg 109
H08/03
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
W
127-103
127
103
+24
124avg 109
H09/03
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
L
127-140
127
140
-13
114avg 109
H11/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
118-112
118
112
+6
108avg 109
A12/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#14
W
113-107
113
107
+6
100avg 109
A15/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-40
32-36
29-20
39-25
40-23
31-41
37-20
27-35
41-38
31-39
36-23
38-32
30-31
33-31
39-27
35-39
30-28
31-27
30-23
29-25
29-24
34-21
17-28
27-16
28-29
33-31
25-23
41-20
32-34
41-33
26-34
28-39
33-30
30-30
25-28
30-24
24-23
31-31
36-23
22-30
241.3Avg total
125.9Scored
115.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (65)119.7107.4227.1+12.382%
Season at home (32)121.5106.9228.4+14.684%
Season away (33)118.0107.8225.8+10.279%
Last 10 (10)125.9115.4241.3+10.590%
Last 5 (5)118.4110.2228.6+8.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)126.0113.0239.0+13.0100%
vs Weaker ◀ (28)124.3111.4235.8+12.979%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: +1.6+1.6Q2Q2: +1.5+1.5Q2: +0.7+0.7Q3Q3: +5.2+5.2Q3: +5.1+5.1Q4Q4: +0.3+0.3Q4: +3.1+3.1
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: +1.6+1.6Q2Q2: +1.5+1.5Q2: +0.7+0.7Q3Q3: +5.2+5.2Q3: +5.1+5.1Q4Q4: +0.3+0.3Q4: +3.1+3.1
Milwaukee BucksOklahoma City Thunder
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Houston Rockets
#4
W
59-57
59
57
+2
A26/02
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
L
54-57
54
57
-3
H28/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
W
71-63
71
63
+8
A02/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
D
66-66
66
66
+0
A05/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
W
72-53
72
53
+19
H06/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#15
L
47-60
47
60
-13
H09/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
52-62
52
62
-10
H10/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#5
L
55-57
55
57
-2
A11/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
W
71-63
71
63
+8
H13/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#5
W
65-60
65
60
+5
H16/03
NBA
121.0Avg total
61.2Scored
59.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)61.458.9120.3+2.563%-
Last 30 at home (16)61.656.5118.1+5.169%-
Last 30 away (14)61.161.7122.9-0.657%-
Last 10 (10)61.259.8121.0+1.450%-
Last 5 (5)58.060.4118.4-2.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)48.070.0118.0-22.00%-
vs Similar (20)61.757.6119.3+4.165%-
vs Weaker (8)64.059.4123.4+4.675%-
This opponent (Oklahoma City Thunder) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Oklahoma City ThunderLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#25
L
61-76
61
76
-15
A27/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
W
71-64
71
64
+7
A01/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#23
L
72-77
72
77
-5
A03/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
W
63-62
63
62
+1
H04/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
W
61-55
61
55
+6
A06/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
W
63-45
63
45
+18
H08/03
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
W
61-60
61
60
+1
H09/03
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
W
73-67
73
67
+6
H11/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
63-60
63
60
+3
A12/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#14
W
55-54
55
54
+1
A15/03
NBA
126.3Avg total
64.3Scored
62.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)64.055.9119.8+8.177%-
Last 30 at home (15)66.054.3120.3+11.787%-
Last 30 away (15)61.957.5119.4+4.567%-
Last 10 (10)64.362.0126.3+2.380%-
Last 5 (5)63.057.2120.2+5.8100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)69.054.5123.5+14.5100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (28)63.656.0119.6+7.675%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 118.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.2 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.6 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.1 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.329.6
57.7%
54.3%59.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.913.2
37.8%
35.9%39.6
🏀 Free throws24.720.1
81.4%
77.8%20.1
They take 86.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Oklahoma City Thundertheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Oklahoma City Thunder: 125.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.8 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers45.6 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.5 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.430.9
57.9%
54.3%61.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.115.2
38.9%
35.9%45.6
🏀 Free throws22.218.5
83.3%
77.8%18.5
They take 92.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 39.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 17 Mar 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Milwaukee Bucks
WWLLLWWWWL
Oklahoma City Thunder
WWLWWWWWWW
#13
League position
#1
+6.7
Net rating
+10.2
115.7
Offensive rating
122.0
109.0
Defensive rating
111.8
57.3%
Effective FG%
58.1%
53.5%
Opp. effective FG%
54.4%
13.5%
Turnover %
10.4%
20.7%
Off. rebound %
22.7%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.24
37.8%
3-point %
38.9%
60.0%
Assist %
58.8%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence115.7 · 122.0Defence109.0 · 111.8Shooting57.3% · 58.1%3-point %37.8% · 38.9%Ball care13.5% · 10.4%Off. rebounds20.7% · 22.7%Free throws0.29 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)60% · 90%
■ Milwaukee Bucks   ■ Oklahoma City Thunder
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Milwaukee Bucks wins
3
Oklahoma City Thunder wins
DateGameScore
04/02/25Oklahoma City Thunder v Milwaukee Bucks125-96
18/12/24Milwaukee Bucks v Oklahoma City Thunder97-81
13/04/24Oklahoma City Thunder v Milwaukee Bucks125-107
24/03/24Milwaukee Bucks v Oklahoma City Thunder118-93
10/11/22Oklahoma City Thunder v Milwaukee Bucks132-136 OT
06/11/22Milwaukee Bucks v Oklahoma City Thunder108-94
09/03/22Oklahoma City Thunder v Milwaukee Bucks115-142
20/11/21Milwaukee Bucks v Oklahoma City Thunder96-89
20/02/21Milwaukee Bucks v Oklahoma City Thunder98-85
15/02/21Oklahoma City Thunder v Milwaukee Bucks114-109
Milwaukee Buckslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/03/25HIndiana Pacers126-119
13/03/25HLos Angeles Lakers126-106
11/03/25AIndiana Pacers114-115
10/03/25HCleveland Cavaliers100-112
09/03/25HOrlando Magic109-111
06/03/25HDallas Mavericks137-107
05/03/25AAtlanta Hawks127-121
02/03/25ADallas Mavericks132-117
28/02/25HDenver Nuggets121-112
26/02/25AHouston Rockets97-100
Oklahoma City Thunderlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/03/25ADetroit Pistons113-107
12/03/25ABoston Celtics118-112
11/03/25HDenver Nuggets127-140
09/03/25HDenver Nuggets127-103
08/03/25HPortland Trail Blazers107-89
06/03/25AMemphis Grizzlies120-103
04/03/25HHouston Rockets137-128
03/03/25ASan Antonio Spurs146-132
01/03/25AAtlanta Hawks135-119
27/02/25ABrooklyn Nets129-121

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW56%
HomeWLLWW67%
AwayWLWWL45%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games643331
Win %56%67%45%
Points / game115.0118.1111.8
Allowed / game112.8111.3114.3
Point differential+2.3+6.7-2.5
Avg total227.8229.4226.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%42%23%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (16)20% (5)45% (11)
Overtime %2%3%0%
Oklahoma City Thunder
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW82%
HomeLWWWL84%
AwayWWWWW79%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games653233
Win %82%84%79%
Points / game119.7121.5118.0
Allowed / game107.4106.9107.8
Point differential+12.3+14.6+10.2
Avg total227.1228.4225.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+62%72%52%
Close games (≤5 pts) won20% (5)0% (2)33% (3)
Overtime %2%3%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Cleveland Cavaliers67561184%122.5111.5+11.0
2 Oklahoma City Thunder65531282%119.7107.4+12.3
3 Boston Celtics68491972%116.6108.2+8.4
4 New York Knicks65422365%117.0112.5+4.5
5 Houston Rockets66422464%113.8109.0+4.8
6 Memphis Grizzlies68432563%122.7116.6+6.1
7 Denver Nuggets68432563%121.2116.9+4.4
8 Los Angeles Lakers66412562%112.9111.4+1.4
9 Golden State Warriors66392759%113.9111.2+2.7
10 Minnesota Timberwolves69402958%113.1108.9+4.2
11 Milwaukee Bucks64362856%115.0112.8+2.3
12 Indiana Pacers66372956%116.3115.3+1.0
13 Los Angeles Clippers68383056%111.4108.4+3.0
14 Detroit Pistons68373154%114.8113.2+1.7
15 Sacramento Kings66333350%116.3115.5+0.8
16 Dallas Mavericks68333549%114.9115.1-0.2
17 Orlando Magic68323647%104.5105.9-1.4
18 Atlanta Hawks66313547%117.4120.1-2.7
19 Phoenix Suns68313746%114.2116.1-2.0
20 Miami Heat67293843%109.3110.7-1.4
21 Portland Trail Blazers68293943%110.6114.5-3.9
22 San Antonio Spurs66283842%114.2116.5-2.3
23 Chicago Bulls67283942%116.6120.1-3.5
24 Toronto Raptors68244435%110.9115.6-4.6
25 Philadelphia 76ers67234434%109.6114.6-5.0
26 Brooklyn Nets68234534%105.6111.7-6.0
27 New Orleans Pelicans68185026%110.8119.0-8.2
28 Charlotte Hornets67175025%105.7113.4-7.7
29 Washington Wizards66155123%108.9120.7-11.7
30 Utah Jazz68155322%112.5120.0-7.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Milwaukee Bucks26153331105
Oklahoma City Thunder24293929121
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