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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 30 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Scheduled
Position#16
Record5-5
FormWWWWL
Points / game109.0
Allowed / game110.8
vs
Position#28
Record3-7
FormLLLWL
Points / game111.4
Allowed / game122.0
USANBA· Paycom Center
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Oklahoma City Thunder v Milwaukee Bucks
29 Dec 2026
OKC v MIL
upcoming
07 Oct 2026
OKC126
MIL128
12 Feb 2026
OKC93
MIL110
03 Feb 2025
OKC125
MIL96
12 Apr 2024
OKC125
MIL107
17 Oct 2023
OKC124
MIL101
09 Nov 2022
OKC132
MIL136
08 Mar 2022
OKC115
MIL142
14 Feb 2021
OKC114
MIL109
10 Nov 2019
OKC119
MIL121
27 Jan 2019
OKC118
MIL112
09 Oct 2018
OKC119
MIL115
29 Dec 2017
OKC95
MIL97
04 Apr 2017
OKC110
MIL79
29 Dec 2015
OKC131
MIL123
09 Dec 2014
OKC114
MIL101
11 Jan 2014
OKC101
MIL85
17 Apr 2013
OKC89
MIL95
13 Apr 2011
OKC106
MIL110
27 Nov 2009
OKC108
MIL90
29 Oct 2008
OKC87
MIL98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Oklahoma City Thunder win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Milwaukee Bucks win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Oklahoma City ThunderUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#19
L
110-116
110
116
-6
H07/10
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#28
L
126-128
126
128
-2
H08/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#7
L
110-113
110
113
-3
A12/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#25
W
114-112 OT
114
112
+2
H14/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
89-116
89
116
-27
A16/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#14
W
116-104
116
104
+12
A21/10
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#8
W
96-84
96
84
+12
H23/10
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#23
W
108-101
108
101
+7
H25/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
W
125-114
125
114
+11
H27/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#21
L
96-120
96
120
-24
A29/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
34-28
33-24
26-38
17-26
44-35
38-29
20-33
24-31
28-29
21-27
30-23
31-34
25-33
34-28
26-23
15-16
15-33
32-21
22-25
20-37
34-28
31-16
28-36
23-24
24-27
20-21
26-16
26-20
23-20
20-26
34-30
31-25
33-27
34-26
32-32
26-29
30-33
29-32
22-29
15-26
219.8Avg total
109.0Scored
110.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)109.0110.8219.8-1.850%
Season at home (6)113.2109.2222.3+4.067%
Season away (4)102.8113.2216.0-10.525%
Last 10 (10)109.0110.8219.8-1.850%
Last 5 (5)108.2104.6212.8+3.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)102.5110.0212.5-7.550%
vs Similar (13)107.5110.4217.8-2.946%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)121.9109.9231.8+11.980%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minnesota Timberwolves
#12
L
97-116
97
116
-19
H06/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#16
W
128-126
128
126
+2
A08/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
L
90-105
90
105
-15
A11/10
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#24
L
104-125
104
125
-21
H15/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#25
W
128-127 OT
128
127
+1
A16/10
NBA
Washington Wizards
#11
L
116-128
116
128
-12
A21/10
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#24
L
125-132
125
132
-7
H23/10
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#9
L
116-127
116
127
-11
A24/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#25
W
110-102
110
102
+8
H27/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
100-132
100
132
-32
H29/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-31
28-29
28-21
21-35
35-44
29-38
33-20
31-24
26-29
19-31
22-27
23-18
15-24
24-38
39-40
26-23
21-29
35-42
34-22
27-24
23-25
33-26
37-39
23-38
32-17
30-44
42-41
21-30
25-34
35-30
27-33
29-30
31-29
19-32
34-24
26-17
21-23
14-34
34-38
31-37
233.4Avg total
111.4Scored
122.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)111.4122.0233.4-10.630%
Season at home (5)107.2121.4228.6-14.220%
Season away (5)115.6122.6238.2-7.040%
Last 10 (10)111.4122.0233.4-10.630%
Last 5 (5)113.4124.2237.6-10.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)108.3124.5232.8-16.217%
vs Similar (5)114.8114.0228.8+0.860%
vs Weaker (2)107.5102.0209.5+5.550%
This opponent (Oklahoma City Thunder) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: -3.6-3.6Q2Q2: +4.2+4.2Q2: -7.8-7.8Q3Q3: -1.9-1.9Q3: +2.5+2.5Q4Q4: -4.0-4.0Q4: -1.8-1.8
Oklahoma City ThunderMilwaukee Bucks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Oklahoma City ThunderLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#19
W
67-52
67
52
+15
H07/10
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#28
W
82-64
82
64
+18
H08/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#7
L
49-56
49
56
-7
A12/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#25
L
59-61
59
61
-2
H14/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
47-54
47
54
-7
A16/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#14
W
65-44
65
44
+21
A21/10
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#8
L
44-48
44
48
-4
H23/10
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#23
L
43-46
43
46
-3
H25/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
W
67-53
67
53
+14
H27/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#21
L
59-65
59
65
-6
A29/10
NBA
112.5Avg total
58.2Scored
54.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.754.5113.2+4.253%-
Last 30 at home (16)60.354.8115.1+5.656%-
Last 30 away (14)56.954.2111.1+2.750%-
Last 10 (10)58.254.3112.5+3.940%-
Last 5 (5)55.651.2106.8+4.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)56.049.0105.0+7.050%-
vs Similar (13)53.754.2107.9-0.531%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)63.555.5118.9+8.073%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minnesota Timberwolves
#12
L
48-60
48
60
-12
H06/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#16
L
64-82
64
82
-18
A08/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
L
45-60
45
60
-15
A11/10
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#24
L
39-62
39
62
-23
H15/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#25
L
56-71
56
71
-15
A16/10
NBA
Washington Wizards
#11
W
56-51
56
51
+5
A21/10
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#24
W
62-61
62
61
+1
H23/10
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#9
L
60-64
60
64
-4
A24/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#25
L
50-61
50
61
-11
H27/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
35-57
35
57
-22
H29/10
NBA
114.4Avg total
51.5Scored
62.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)53.361.8115.1-8.430%-
Last 30 at home (15)54.260.8115.0-6.640%-
Last 30 away (15)52.562.7115.2-10.320%-
Last 10 (10)51.562.9114.4-11.420%-
Last 5 (5)52.658.8111.4-6.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)52.763.2116.0-10.526%-
vs Similar (5)55.659.2114.8-3.640%-
vs Weaker (2)54.551.5106.0+3.050%-
This opponent (Oklahoma City Thunder) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Oklahoma City Thundertheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Oklahoma City Thunder: 109.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.6 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.1 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.2 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.5 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.227.8
51.3%
54.0%55.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.312.7
36.0%
34.9%38.1
🏀 Free throws20.616.2
78.6%
76.4%16.2
They take 89.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 112.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.2 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers42.9 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.9 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.5 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.525.6
52.8%
54.0%51.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers44.414.3
32.2%
34.9%42.9
🏀 Free throws25.517.9
70.2%
76.4%17.9
They take 92.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 44.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 30 Dec 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Oklahoma City Thunder
LWWWWLWLLL
Milwaukee Bucks
LWLLLWLLWL
#16
League position
#28
-0.2
Net rating
-8.1
99.0
Offensive rating
96.0
99.2
Defensive rating
104.0
52.3%
Effective FG%
50.6%
50.6%
Opp. effective FG%
54.3%
14.0%
Turnover %
15.2%
28.7%
Off. rebound %
13.0%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.27
36.0%
3-point %
32.2%
61.5%
Assist %
63.4%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence99.0 · 96.0Defence99.2 · 104.0Shooting52.3% · 50.6%3-point %36.0% · 32.2%Ball care14.0% · 15.2%Off. rebounds28.7% · 13.0%Free throws0.23 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)50% · 30%
■ Oklahoma City Thunder   ■ Milwaukee Bucks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
29/10/26ADallas Mavericks96-120
27/10/26HPhoenix Suns125-114
25/10/26HLos Angeles Clippers108-101
23/10/26HDenver Nuggets96-84
21/10/26ASan Antonio Spurs116-104
16/10/26AHouston Rockets89-116
14/10/26HIndiana Pacers114-112 OT
12/10/26AAtlanta Hawks110-113
08/10/26HMilwaukee Bucks126-128
07/10/26HNew Orleans Pelicans110-116
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/10/26HHouston Rockets100-132
27/10/26HIndiana Pacers110-102
24/10/26APhiladelphia 76ers116-127
23/10/26HChicago Bulls125-132
21/10/26AWashington Wizards116-128
16/10/26AIndiana Pacers128-127 OT
15/10/26HChicago Bulls104-125
11/10/26ACharlotte Hornets90-105
08/10/26AOklahoma City Thunder128-126
06/10/26HMinnesota Timberwolves97-116

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL50%
HomeLWWWW67%
AwayLLWL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1064
Win %50%67%25%
Points / game109.0113.2102.8
Allowed / game110.8109.2113.2
Point differential-1.8+4.0-10.5
Avg total219.8222.3216.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%33%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)50% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %10%17%0%
Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL30%
HomeLLLWL20%
AwayWLWLL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1055
Win %30%20%40%
Points / game111.4107.2115.6
Allowed / game122.0121.4122.6
Point differential-10.6-14.2-7.0
Avg total233.4228.6238.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)-100% (2)
Overtime %10%0%20%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Memphis Grizzlies98189%117.9108.2+9.7
2 Boston Celtics87188%125.5110.9+14.6
3 Detroit Pistons108280%113.3106.3+7.0
4 Houston Rockets97278%121.3110.9+10.4
5 Portland Trail Blazers75271%120.3114.3+6.0
6 Orlando Magic85362%118.9118.1+0.8
7 Atlanta Hawks106460%120.0119.2+0.8
8 Denver Nuggets106460%114.8114.7+0.1
9 Philadelphia 76ers106460%110.6111.0-0.4
10 Golden State Warriors127558%115.2110.8+4.4
11 Washington Wizards95456%112.7111.2+1.4
12 Minnesota Timberwolves116555%119.2114.2+5.0
13 Los Angeles Lakers116555%113.2112.6+0.5
14 San Antonio Spurs105550%115.5109.4+6.1
15 Cleveland Cavaliers84450%117.2118.2-1.0
16 Oklahoma City Thunder105550%109.0110.8-1.8
17 Miami Heat115645%122.7121.9+0.8
18 Toronto Raptors94544%120.4112.6+7.9
19 New Orleans Pelicans94544%115.4116.6-1.1
20 Utah Jazz94544%112.8115.6-2.8
21 Dallas Mavericks94544%113.6116.9-3.3
22 Charlotte Hornets94544%98.8105.8-7.0
23 Los Angeles Clippers83538%107.4110.5-3.1
24 Chicago Bulls114736%117.4122.7-5.4
25 Indiana Pacers93633%119.3119.0+0.3
26 Brooklyn Nets93633%116.4118.9-2.4
27 New York Knicks103730%106.9116.0-9.1
28 Milwaukee Bucks103730%111.4122.0-10.6
29 Phoenix Suns92722%110.3119.0-8.7
30 Sacramento Kings100100%106.5122.2-15.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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