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Pesaro vs Pistoia Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 30 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 19:30
Scheduled
Position#8
Record5-3
FormWWLLL
Points / game80.2
Allowed / game77.9
vs
Form · last 5 games
5.7/10
Above normal
6.6/10
Above normal
Position#11
Record4-4
FormWWWLW
Points / game77.4
Allowed / game69.5
ItalySerie A2Round 18· Vitrifrigo Arena
Other2026-27
Meetings · Pesaro v Pistoia
30 Dec 2026
PES v PIS
upcoming
29 Oct 2025
PES82
PIS73
13 Apr 2024
PES89
PIS82
13 Apr 2020
PES v PIS
upcoming
07 Oct 2018
PES83
PIS77
08 Apr 2018
PES80
PIS72
27 Dec 2016
PES57
PIS59
11 Oct 2015
PES73
PIS74
26 Apr 2015
PES82
PIS86
09 Mar 2014
PES75
PIS74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pesaro win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pistoia win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PesaroItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPesaro
Date
Competition
Rimini
#8
W
96-94
96
94
+2
90avg 76
A16/05
Serie A2
Rimini
#8
L
78-91
78
91
-13
68avg 76
H19/05
Serie A2
Cento
#17
W
96-81
96
81
+15
92avg 76
A27/09
Serie A2
JuVi Cremona
#18
W
87-84
87
84
+3
32avg 76
H04/10
Serie A2
Caserta
#14
W
83-77
83
77
+6
87avg 76
H11/10
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#15
W
86-76
86
76
+10
67avg 76
A18/10
Serie A2
Cividale
#10
W
76-68
76
68
+8
76avg 76
H21/10
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#5
L
71-73
71
73
-2
61avg 76
H25/10
Serie A2
Avellino Basket
#2
L
70-79
70
79
-9
no box
A01/11
Serie A2
Mestre
#13
L
73-85
73
85
-12
no box
H07/11
Serie A2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-26
33-19
17-31
25-18
18-20
11-27
22-21
27-23
31-14
25-25
20-19
20-23
24-23
21-18
15-26
27-17
23-24
23-15
16-21
21-17
13-15
27-31
22-17
24-13
22-21
20-18
13-15
21-14
15-20
21-20
18-19
17-14
19-21
18-27
13-16
20-15
22-22
18-30
19-12
14-21
162.4Avg total
81.6Scored
80.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)80.277.9158.1+2.462%
Season at home (5)78.077.4155.4+0.660%
Season away (3)84.078.7162.7+5.367%
Last 10 (10)81.680.8162.4+0.860%
Last 5 (5)75.276.2151.4-1.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)70.079.0149.0-9.00%
vs Similar (18)82.285.7167.9-3.644%
vs Weaker (11)84.876.4161.2+8.5100%
This opponent (Pistoia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PistoiaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPistoia
Date
Competition
Ruvo Di Puglia
#16
L
81-88 OT
81
88
-7
66avg 68
H10/05
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#16
W
80-78
80
78
+2
72avg 68
A13/05
Serie A2
Libertas Livorno
#1
L
62-63
62
63
-1
49avg 68
A27/09
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#5
L
77-84
77
84
-7
28avg 68
H04/10
Serie A2
Sebastiani Rieti
#4
L
70-78
70
78
-8
63avg 68
A11/10
Serie A2
Vigevano
#16
W
89-70
89
70
+19
84avg 68
H18/10
Serie A2
Cento
#17
W
96-52
96
52
+44
103avg 68
A21/10
Serie A2
JuVi Cremona
#18
W
75-72
75
72
+3
70avg 68
A25/10
Serie A2
Fortitudo Bologna
#3
L
64-66
64
66
-2
no box
H01/11
Serie A2
Montecatini
#20
W
86-71
86
71
+15
no box
A08/11
Serie A2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-19
15-19
24-14
16-23
17-25
24-18
23-18
16-17
16-19
18-18
15-11
13-15
20-30
23-19
20-18
14-17
23-24
15-21
12-12
20-21
21-18
27-15
21-20
20-17
24-10
25-13
23-20
24-9
21-20
15-21
14-12
25-19
21-16
17-25
13-13
13-12
14-18
12-22
31-16
29-15
150.2Avg total
78.0Scored
72.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)77.469.5146.9+7.950%
Season at home (3)76.773.3150.0+3.333%
Season away (5)77.867.2145.0+10.660%
Last 10 (10)78.072.2150.2+5.850%
Last 5 (5)82.066.2148.2+15.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)73.882.5156.3-8.815%
vs Similar (11)79.884.5164.3-4.636%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)82.271.2153.3+11.067%
This opponent (Pesaro) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +0.2+0.2Q1: -0.2-0.2Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: -2.2-2.2Q3: +4.2+4.2Q4Q4: +4.1+4.1Q4: +2.5+2.5
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +0.2+0.2Q1: -0.2-0.2Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: -2.2-2.2Q3: +4.2+4.2Q4Q4: +4.1+4.1Q4: +2.5+2.5
PesaroPistoia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PesaroLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rimini
#8
W
54-45
54
45
+9
A16/05
Serie A2
Rimini
#8
L
29-47
29
47
-18
H19/05
Serie A2
Cento
#17
W
56-39
56
39
+17
A27/09
Serie A2
JuVi Cremona
#18
W
45-41
45
41
+4
H04/10
Serie A2
Caserta
#14
W
46-39
46
39
+7
H11/10
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#15
L
40-46
40
46
-6
A18/10
Serie A2
Cividale
#10
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H21/10
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#5
L
36-40
36
40
-4
H25/10
Serie A2
Avellino Basket
#2
L
37-48
37
48
-11
A01/11
Serie A2
Mestre
#13
L
40-52
40
52
-12
H07/11
Serie A2
86.1Avg total
42.5Scored
43.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.441.183.5+1.357%-
Last 30 at home (16)42.539.682.1+2.969%-
Last 30 away (14)42.342.785.0-0.443%-
Last 10 (10)42.543.686.1-1.150%-
Last 5 (5)39.045.084.0-6.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)37.048.085.0-11.00%-
vs Similar (18)41.742.283.9-0.639%-
vs Weaker (11)44.138.582.6+5.591%-
This opponent (Pistoia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PistoiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ruvo Di Puglia
#16
L
35-38
35
38
-3
H10/05
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#16
L
41-43
41
43
-2
A13/05
Serie A2
Libertas Livorno
#1
L
34-37
34
37
-3
A27/09
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#5
L
43-49
43
49
-6
H04/10
Serie A2
Sebastiani Rieti
#4
L
38-45
38
45
-7
A11/10
Serie A2
Vigevano
#16
W
48-33
48
33
+15
H18/10
Serie A2
Cento
#17
W
49-23
49
23
+26
A21/10
Serie A2
JuVi Cremona
#18
L
36-41
36
41
-5
A25/10
Serie A2
Fortitudo Bologna
#3
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H01/11
Serie A2
Montecatini
#20
L
26-40
26
40
-14
A08/11
Serie A2
77.8Avg total
38.8Scored
39.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.141.780.8-2.527%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.940.480.4-0.543%-
Last 30 away (16)38.442.881.2-4.312%-
Last 10 (10)38.839.077.8-0.220%-
Last 5 (5)39.435.675.0+3.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)36.240.276.3-4.023%-
vs Similar (11)42.245.287.4-3.027%-
vs Weaker ◀ (6)40.038.578.5+1.533%-
This opponent (Pesaro) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Pesarotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pesaro: 77.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.1 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.4 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.3 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.718.1
52.2%
51.5%36.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.58.7
42.4%
34.5%26.1
🏀 Free throws19.515.4
79.0%
70.9%15.4
They take 55.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 20.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Pistoiatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pistoia: 76.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.4 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.9 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.3 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.217.9
50.9%
51.5%35.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.07.8
32.5%
34.5%23.4
🏀 Free throws22.116.9
76.5%
70.9%16.9
They take 59.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 30 Dec 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Pesaro
LLLWWWWWLW
Pistoia
WLWWWLLLWL
#8
League position
#11
+1.9
Net rating
+13.6
106.7
Offensive rating
99.8
104.8
Defensive rating
86.2
56.4%
Effective FG%
50.0%
53.4%
Opp. effective FG%
49.2%
10.9%
Turnover %
10.2%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.37
42.4%
3-point %
32.5%
52.6%
Assist %
54.1%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence106.7 · 99.8Defence104.8 · 86.2Shooting56.4% · 50.0%3-point %42.4% · 32.5%Ball care10.9% · 10.2%Free throws0.35 · 0.37Form (last 10/10)60% · 50%
■ Pesaro   ■ Pistoia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Pesaro wins
3
Pistoia wins
DateGameScore
29/03/26Pistoia v Pesaro89-91
29/10/25Pesaro v Pistoia82-73
13/04/24Pesaro v Pistoia89-82
17/12/23Pistoia v Pesaro73-74
22/12/19Pistoia v Pesaro91-79
20/01/19Pistoia v Pesaro77-81
07/10/18Pesaro v Pistoia83-77
08/04/18Pesaro v Pistoia80-72 OT
09/12/17Pistoia v Pesaro86-83
23/04/17Pistoia v Pesaro87-83
Pesarolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HMestre73-85
01/11/26AAvellino Basket70-79
25/10/26HBasket Torino71-73
21/10/26HCividale76-68
18/10/26ARuvo Di Puglia86-76
11/10/26HCaserta83-77
04/10/26HJuVi Cremona87-84
27/09/26ACento96-81
19/05/26HRimini78-91
16/05/26ARimini96-94
Pistoialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26AMontecatini86-71
01/11/26HFortitudo Bologna64-66
25/10/26AJuVi Cremona75-72
21/10/26ACento96-52
18/10/26HVigevano89-70
11/10/26ASebastiani Rieti70-78
04/10/26HBasket Torino77-84
27/09/26ALibertas Livorno62-63
13/05/26ARuvo Di Puglia80-78
10/05/26HRuvo Di Puglia81-88 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Pesaro
Serie A2 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL62%
HomeWWWLL60%
AwayWWL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games853
Win %62%60%67%
Points / game80.278.084.0
Allowed / game77.977.478.7
Point differential+2.4+0.6+5.3
Avg total158.1155.4162.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%0%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Pistoia
Serie A2 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW50%
HomeLWL33%
AwayLLWWW60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games835
Win %50%33%60%
Points / game77.476.777.8
Allowed / game69.573.367.2
Point differential+7.9+3.3+10.6
Avg total146.9150.0145.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%33%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Libertas Livorno880100%81.668.2+13.4
2 Avellino Basket87188%80.973.4+7.5
3 Fortitudo Bologna86275%79.674.2+5.4
4 Sebastiani Rieti86275%74.173.4+0.8
5 Basket Torino75271%72.471.4+1.0
6 Rimini96367%80.471.8+8.7
7 Brindisi85362%77.073.4+3.6
8 Pesaro85362%80.277.9+2.4
9 Forli95456%82.377.6+4.8
10 Cividale95456%71.874.1-2.3
11 Pistoia84450%77.469.5+7.9
12 Sassari84450%74.975.1-0.2
13 Mestre94544%75.076.4-1.4
14 Caserta72529%79.383.3-4.0
15 Ruvo Di Puglia82625%76.182.5-6.4
16 Vigevano82625%76.584.4-7.9
17 Cento82625%72.282.6-10.4
18 JuVi Cremona81712%74.978.0-3.1
19 Urania Milano81712%74.581.9-7.4
20 Montecatini81712%68.982.6-13.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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