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South East Melbourne vs Adelaide Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 06:30
Final 101-92
19-30 25-27 39-20 18-15
Position#2
Record23-12
FormLWLWL
Points / game100.9
Allowed / game93.1
South East Melbourne 🏆
Australia
vs
Adelaide
Australia
Position#3
Record24-11
FormWWLLW
Points / game92.9
Allowed / game88.5
AustraliaNBLNBL - Semi-finals· John Cain Arena
Other2025-26
Meetings · South East Melbourne v Adelaide
21 Jan 2027
SOUT v ADEL
upcoming
24 Oct 2026
SOUT108
ADEL94
14 Mar 2026
SOUT101
ADEL92
22 Nov 2025
SOUT81
ADEL94
16 Feb 2025
SOUT85
ADEL75
02 Feb 2025
SOUT105
ADEL99
21 Dec 2024
SOUT106
ADEL86
17 Jan 2024
SOUT85
ADEL110
11 Dec 2022
SOUT102
ADEL84
30 Oct 2022
SOUT103
ADEL98
22 Apr 2022
SOUT94
ADEL91
17 Apr 2021
SOUT81
ADEL90
20 Mar 2021
SOUT96
ADEL89
18 Nov 2019
SOUT91
ADEL103
27 Oct 2019
SOUT101
ADEL91
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

South East Melbourne winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Adelaide winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

South East MelbourneAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMelbourne
Date
Competition
New Zealand Breakers
#7
W
123-116
123
116
+7
116avg 89
H21/01
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
118-91
118
91
+27
118avg 89
H24/01
NBL
Perth
#5
L
93-101
93
101
-8
79avg 89
A28/01
NBL
Adelaide
#3
W
97-77
97
77
+20
89avg 89
A31/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
W
114-83
114
83
+31
100avg 89
A05/02
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
88-114
88
114
-26
68avg 89
H08/02
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
120-104
120
104
+16
118avg 89
H14/02
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
L
91-95
91
95
-4
78avg 89
A19/02
NBL
Perth
#5
W
111-94
111
94
+17
103avg 89
H04/03
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
97-104
97
104
-7
81avg 89
A10/03
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
38-28
36-26
26-31
23-31
16-26
33-26
32-15
37-24
32-24
19-25
26-26
16-26
18-18
30-22
23-16
26-21
17-20
35-32
34-15
28-16
29-33
25-22
23-30
11-29
32-34
35-22
35-23
18-25
23-33
19-19
30-16
19-27
35-29
29-18
22-17
25-30
27-25
21-25
27-27
22-27
203.1Avg total
105.2Scored
97.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (35)100.993.1194.0+7.866%
Season at home (17)104.193.8197.9+10.371%
Season away (18)97.992.4190.3+5.461%
Last 10 (10)105.297.9203.1+7.360%
Last 5 (5)101.4102.2203.6-0.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)108.0108.7216.7-0.767%
vs Similar (8)94.492.5186.9+1.950%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)104.393.1197.4+11.374%
This opponent (Adelaide) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AdelaideAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAdelaide
Date
Competition
New Zealand Breakers
#7
W
112-110 OT
112
110
+2
101avg 88
A23/01
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
101-106
101
106
-5
104avg 88
A25/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
107-74
107
74
+33
116avg 88
A28/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
77-97
77
97
-20
68avg 88
H31/01
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
L
99-100
99
100
-1
99avg 88
A05/02
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
W
87-76
87
76
+11
87avg 88
A07/02
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
W
92-89
92
89
+3
87avg 88
H14/02
NBL
Perth
#5
L
74-86
74
86
-12
68avg 88
A20/02
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
L
107-111
107
111
-4
no box
H22/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
104-97
104
97
+7
100avg 88
H10/03
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-22
25-22
22-27
23-22
20-22
26-37
24-25
31-22
33-24
19-22
16-9
39-19
18-18
22-30
16-23
21-26
21-27
30-18
27-24
21-31
29-23
12-16
26-14
20-23
16-29
23-21
20-21
33-18
17-19
17-29
24-17
16-21
25-28
29-19
28-34
25-30
25-27
25-21
27-27
27-22
190.6Avg total
96.0Scored
94.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (35)92.988.5181.5+4.469%
Season at home (19)92.189.4181.5+2.668%
Season away (16)94.087.4181.4+6.669%
Last 10 (10)96.094.6190.6+1.450%
Last 5 (5)92.891.8184.6+1.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)91.995.0186.9-3.143%
vs Similar (13)91.990.4182.3+1.562%
vs Weaker (10)95.383.6178.9+11.790%
This opponent (South East Melbourne) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: -1.2-1.2Q2Q2: +4.5+4.5Q2: -0.7-0.7Q3Q3: +6.2+6.2Q3: +0.9+0.9Q4Q4: -3.1-3.1Q4: +2.2+2.2
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: -1.2-1.2Q2Q2: +4.5+4.5Q2: -0.7-0.7Q3Q3: +6.2+6.2Q3: +0.9+0.9Q4Q4: -3.1-3.1Q4: +2.2+2.2
South East MelbourneAdelaide
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
South East MelbourneLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Zealand Breakers
#7
W
74-54
74
54
+20
H21/01
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
L
49-52
49
52
-3
H24/01
NBL
Perth
#5
W
51-49
51
49
+2
A28/01
NBL
Adelaide
#3
W
48-40
48
40
+8
A31/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
D
52-52
52
52
+0
A05/02
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
54-55
54
55
-1
H08/02
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
67-56
67
56
+11
H14/02
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
L
42-52
42
52
-10
A19/02
NBL
Perth
#5
W
64-47
64
47
+17
H04/03
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
48-50
48
50
-2
A10/03
NBL
105.6Avg total
54.9Scored
50.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)50.848.299.0+2.647%-
Last 30 at home (15)53.348.4101.7+4.953%-
Last 30 away (15)48.348.096.3+0.340%-
Last 10 (10)54.950.7105.6+4.250%-
Last 5 (5)55.052.0107.0+3.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)52.754.3107.0-1.70%-
vs Similar (8)48.048.096.0+0.038%-
vs Weaker ◀ (19)51.747.399.0+4.458%-
This opponent (Adelaide) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AdelaideLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Zealand Breakers
#7
W
48-44
48
44
+4
A23/01
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
46-59
46
59
-13
A25/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
52-46
52
46
+6
A28/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
40-48
40
48
-8
H31/01
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
51-45
51
45
+6
A05/02
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
W
41-39
41
39
+2
A07/02
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
L
39-50
39
50
-11
H14/02
NBL
Perth
#5
L
34-48
34
48
-14
A20/02
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
W
54-47
54
47
+7
H22/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
50-48
50
48
+2
H10/03
NBL
92.9Avg total
45.5Scored
47.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.544.889.3-0.450%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.945.590.5-0.647%-
Last 30 away (15)44.044.188.1-0.153%-
Last 10 (10)45.547.492.9-1.960%-
Last 5 (5)43.646.490.0-2.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)43.947.991.7-4.029%-
vs Similar (13)43.544.988.4-1.546%-
vs Weaker (10)46.242.688.8+3.670%-
This opponent (South East Melbourne) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
South East Melbournetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

South East Melbourne: 105.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.6 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.5 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.1 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.423.3
53.7%
54.6%46.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.013.5
35.5%
33.3%40.5
🏀 Free throws22.318.1
81.2%
74.8%18.1
They take 81.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Adelaidetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide: 91.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.6 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.1 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.422.3
58.1%
54.6%44.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.110.7
36.8%
33.3%32.1
🏀 Free throws18.214.7
80.8%
74.8%14.7
They take 67.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
South East Melbourne
LWLWLWWLWW
Adelaide
WLLWWLLWLW
#2
League position
#3
+10.1
Net rating
+1.3
109.1
Offensive rating
101.5
99.0
Defensive rating
100.2
53.5%
Effective FG%
56.8%
56.4%
Opp. effective FG%
51.8%
8.9%
Turnover %
14.3%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.27
35.5%
3-point %
36.8%
60.3%
Assist %
64.5%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence109.1 · 101.5Defence99.0 · 100.2Shooting53.5% · 56.8%3-point %35.5% · 36.8%Ball care8.9% · 14.3%Free throws0.27 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)60% · 50%
■ South East Melbourne   ■ Adelaide
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
South East Melbourne wins
5
Adelaide wins
DateGameScore
10/03/26Adelaide v South East Melbourne104-97
31/01/26Adelaide v South East Melbourne77-97
18/01/26Adelaide v South East Melbourne89-108
22/11/25South East Melbourne v Adelaide81-94
16/10/25Adelaide v South East Melbourne88-71
16/02/25South East Melbourne v Adelaide85-75
02/02/25South East Melbourne v Adelaide105-99
21/12/24South East Melbourne v Adelaide106-86
03/10/24Adelaide v South East Melbourne93-83
17/01/24South East Melbourne v Adelaide85-110
South East Melbournelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/03/26AAdelaide97-104
04/03/26HPerth111-94
19/02/26AMelbourne United91-95
14/02/26HTasmania JackJumpers120-104
08/02/26HSydney88-114
05/02/26ANew Zealand Breakers114-83
31/01/26AAdelaide97-77
28/01/26APerth93-101
24/01/26HCairns Taipans118-91
21/01/26HNew Zealand Breakers123-116
Adelaidelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/03/26HSouth East Melbourne104-97
22/02/26HNew Zealand Breakers107-111
20/02/26APerth74-86
14/02/26HNew Zealand Breakers92-89
07/02/26AMelbourne United87-76
05/02/26AIllawarra Hawks99-100
31/01/26HSouth East Melbourne77-97
28/01/26ABrisbane Bullets107-74
25/01/26ASydney101-106
23/01/26ANew Zealand Breakers112-110 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

South East Melbourne
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL66%
HomeWWLWW71%
AwayLWWLL61%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games351718
Win %66%71%61%
Points / game100.9104.197.9
Allowed / game93.193.892.4
Point differential+7.8+10.3+5.4
Avg total194.0197.9190.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+49%59%39%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)100% (1)40% (5)
Overtime %6%6%6%
Adelaide
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW69%
HomeLLWLW68%
AwayLWLWL69%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games351916
Win %69%68%69%
Points / game92.992.194.0
Allowed / game88.589.487.4
Point differential+4.4+2.6+6.6
Avg total181.5181.5181.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%26%38%
Close games (≤5 pts) won58% (12)75% (4)50% (8)
Overtime %11%11%12%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Sydney3425974%99.487.7+11.7
2 Adelaide35241169%92.988.5+4.4
3 South East Melbourne35231266%100.993.1+7.8
4 Perth36221461%91.487.0+4.3
5 Melbourne United35211460%91.487.7+3.8
6 Tasmania JackJumpers34142041%86.587.2-0.7
7 New Zealand Breakers34142041%92.193.1-0.9
8 Illawarra Hawks33132039%93.297.1-4.0
9 Cairns Taipans3392427%83.596.8-13.3
10 Brisbane Bullets3362718%82.196.8-14.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
South East Melbourne19253918101
Adelaide3027201592
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