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Adelaide vs South East Melbourne Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 16 Oct 2025
Tip-off: 08:30
Final 88-71
28-16 22-11 16-18 22-26
Position#3
Record3-1
FormLWWWL
Points / game93.5
Allowed / game87.8
Adelaide 🏆
Australia
vs
South East Melbourne
Australia
Position#2
Record2-1
FormWLWLW
Points / game94.7
Allowed / game87.0
AustraliaNBLRound 5· Adelaide Entertainment Centre
Other2025-26
Meetings · Adelaide v South East Melbourne
02 Jan 2027
ADEL v SOUT
upcoming
02 Dec 2026
ADEL v SOUT
upcoming
17 Mar 2026
ADEL108
SOUT96
10 Mar 2026
ADEL104
SOUT97
31 Jan 2026
ADEL77
SOUT97
18 Jan 2026
ADEL89
SOUT108
16 Oct 2025
ADEL88
SOUT71
03 Oct 2024
ADEL93
SOUT83
17 Nov 2023
ADEL96
SOUT93
19 Oct 2023
ADEL85
SOUT102
24 Dec 2022
ADEL94
SOUT88
27 Mar 2022
ADEL100
SOUT92
04 Mar 2022
ADEL76
SOUT83
23 Feb 2021
ADEL99
SOUT94
20 Jan 2021
ADEL83
SOUT89
17 Jan 2021
ADEL116
SOUT108
02 Feb 2020
ADEL100
SOUT93
13 Dec 2019
ADEL113
SOUT111
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
South East Melbourne winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AdelaideAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAdelaide
Date
Competition
New Zealand Breakers
#9
W
94-78
94
78
+16
92avg 85
H26/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
L
89-92
89
92
-3
82avg 85
H31/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
L
99-105
99
105
-6
88avg 85
A02/02
NBL
Perth
#3
L
104-112
104
112
-8
91avg 85
A07/02
NBL
Sydney
#4
W
95-88
95
88
+7
88avg 85
A13/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
L
75-85
75
85
-10
63avg 85
A16/02
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
87-80
87
80
+7
83avg 85
H28/09
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
110-79
110
79
+31
104avg 85
A02/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
98-89
98
89
+9
96avg 85
H09/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
79-103
79
103
-24
73avg 85
H11/10
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-15
30-20
22-23
15-20
21-22
24-20
18-26
26-24
23-30
20-31
34-18
22-26
27-20
29-29
22-32
26-31
23-22
28-19
18-30
26-17
16-15
29-11
15-28
15-31
27-23
21-24
29-20
10-13
36-23
22-15
27-22
25-19
21-20
30-22
25-30
22-17
19-29
22-25
23-25
15-24
184.1Avg total
93.0Scored
91.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)93.587.8181.2+5.875%
Season at home (3)88.090.7178.7-2.767%
Season away (1)110.079.0189.0+31.0100%
Last 10 (10)93.091.1184.1+1.950%
Last 5 (5)89.887.2177.0+2.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)94.499.9194.3-5.638%
vs Similar (10)90.092.9182.9-2.940%
vs Weaker (4)98.881.8180.5+17.0100%
This opponent (South East Melbourne) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
South East MelbourneAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMelbourne
Date
Competition
Adelaide
#6
W
105-99
105
99
+6
101avg 86
H02/02
NBL
Melbourne United
#2
L
93-103
93
103
-10
80avg 86
A08/02
NBL
Perth
#3
L
105-122
105
122
-17
90avg 86
A11/02
NBL
Adelaide
#6
W
85-75
85
75
+10
76avg 86
H16/02
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
L
94-101
94
101
-7
87avg 86
A28/02
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
W
101-94
101
94
+7
86avg 86
H02/03
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
L
96-126
96
126
-30
72avg 86
A05/03
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
114-77
114
77
+37
no box
H20/09
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
L
83-103
83
103
-20
69avg 86
A25/09
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
W
87-81
87
81
+6
75avg 86
A12/10
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-23
31-20
18-34
26-22
26-30
28-16
22-30
17-27
28-29
39-33
23-34
15-26
15-16
11-29
28-15
31-15
27-31
34-23
12-32
21-15
24-24
27-23
15-21
35-26
22-37
22-33
20-33
32-23
23-15
36-20
29-26
26-16
24-29
22-23
24-23
13-28
21-15
13-31
28-19
25-16
194.4Avg total
96.3Scored
98.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)94.787.0181.7+7.767%
Season at home (1)114.077.0191.0+37.0100%
Season away (2)85.092.0177.0-7.050%
Last 10 (10)96.398.1194.4-1.850%
Last 5 (5)96.296.2192.4+0.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)97.7102.3200.0-4.750%
vs Similar (10)93.598.5192.0-5.020%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)101.587.6189.1+13.993%
This opponent (Adelaide) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.1+2.1Q1: -0.9-0.9Q2Q2: +3.9+3.9Q2: +1.2+1.2Q3Q3: -2.1-2.1Q3: -4.8-4.8Q4Q4: -2.0-2.0Q4: +2.7+2.7
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.1+2.1Q1: -0.9-0.9Q2Q2: +3.9+3.9Q2: +1.2+1.2Q3Q3: -2.1-2.1Q3: -4.8-4.8Q4Q4: -2.0-2.0Q4: +2.7+2.7
AdelaideSouth East Melbourne
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AdelaideLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Zealand Breakers
#9
W
57-35
57
35
+22
H26/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
W
45-42
45
42
+3
H31/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
L
43-61
43
61
-18
A02/02
NBL
Perth
#3
W
56-49
56
49
+7
A07/02
NBL
Sydney
#4
W
51-41
51
41
+10
A13/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
W
45-26
45
26
+19
A16/02
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
48-47
48
47
+1
H28/09
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
58-38
58
38
+20
A02/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
51-42
51
42
+9
H09/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
41-54
41
54
-13
H11/10
NBL
93.0Avg total
49.5Scored
43.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)49.247.296.5+2.053%-
Last 30 at home (15)48.946.495.3+2.560%-
Last 30 away (15)49.548.197.6+1.547%-
Last 10 (10)49.543.593.0+6.080%-
Last 5 (5)48.641.490.0+7.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)49.849.399.1+0.550%-
vs Similar (10)47.144.791.8+2.450%-
vs Weaker (4)52.245.297.5+7.075%-
This opponent (South East Melbourne) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
South East MelbourneLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Adelaide
#6
W
61-43
61
43
+18
H02/02
NBL
Melbourne United
#2
W
54-46
54
46
+8
A08/02
NBL
Perth
#3
W
67-62
67
62
+5
A11/02
NBL
Adelaide
#6
L
26-45
26
45
-19
H16/02
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
W
61-54
61
54
+7
A28/02
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
W
51-47
51
47
+4
H02/03
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
L
44-70
44
70
-26
A05/03
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
59-35
59
35
+24
H20/09
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
L
46-52
46
52
-6
A25/09
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
L
34-46
34
46
-12
A12/10
NBL
100.3Avg total
50.3Scored
50.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)50.549.499.9+1.157%-
Last 30 at home (15)49.947.397.2+2.560%-
Last 30 away (15)51.151.5102.7-0.453%-
Last 10 (10)50.350.0100.3+0.360%-
Last 5 (5)46.850.096.8-3.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)51.255.7106.8-4.550%-
vs Similar (10)51.051.1102.1-0.150%-
vs Weaker ◀ (14)49.945.695.4+4.364%-
This opponent (Adelaide) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaidetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide: 92.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.4 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.2 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.424.2
63.0%
54.6%48.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.58.8
33.2%
33.3%26.4
🏀 Free throws21.417.2
80.4%
74.8%17.2
They take 64.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
South East Melbournetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

South East Melbourne: 97.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.6 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.6 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.9 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.823.8
52.0%
54.6%47.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.810.2
32.1%
33.3%30.6
🏀 Free throws24.418.9
77.5%
74.8%18.9
They take 77.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 Oct 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide
LWWWLWLLLW
South East Melbourne
WLWLWLWLLW
#3
League position
#2
+2.2
Net rating
-0.5
119.6
Offensive rating
113.9
117.4
Defensive rating
114.3
57.6%
Effective FG%
50.4%
56.0%
Opp. effective FG%
53.3%
14.4%
Turnover %
11.9%
23.4%
Off. rebound %
28.0%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.31
33.2%
3-point %
32.1%
58.2%
Assist %
53.2%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence119.6 · 113.9Defence117.4 · 114.3Shooting57.6% · 50.4%3-point %33.2% · 32.1%Ball care14.4% · 11.9%Off. rebounds23.4% · 28.0%Free throws0.33 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)50% · 50%
■ Adelaide   ■ South East Melbourne
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Adelaide wins
6
South East Melbourne wins
DateGameScore
16/02/25South East Melbourne v Adelaide85-75
02/02/25South East Melbourne v Adelaide105-99
21/12/24South East Melbourne v Adelaide106-86
03/10/24Adelaide v South East Melbourne93-83
17/01/24South East Melbourne v Adelaide85-110
17/11/23Adelaide v South East Melbourne96-93
19/10/23Adelaide v South East Melbourne85-102
24/12/22Adelaide v South East Melbourne94-88
11/12/22South East Melbourne v Adelaide102-84
30/10/22South East Melbourne v Adelaide103-98 OT
Adelaidelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/10/25HSydney79-103
09/10/25HTasmania JackJumpers98-89
02/10/25ACairns Taipans110-79
28/09/25HBrisbane Bullets87-80
16/02/25ASouth East Melbourne75-85
13/02/25ASydney95-88
07/02/25APerth104-112
02/02/25ASouth East Melbourne99-105
31/01/25HBrisbane Bullets89-92
26/01/25HNew Zealand Breakers94-78
South East Melbournelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/10/25ANew Zealand Breakers87-81
25/09/25AMelbourne United83-103
20/09/25HCairns Taipans114-77
05/03/25AIllawarra Hawks96-126
02/03/25HIllawarra Hawks101-94
28/02/25AIllawarra Hawks94-101
16/02/25HAdelaide85-75
11/02/25APerth105-122
08/02/25AMelbourne United93-103
02/02/25HAdelaide105-99

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWL75%
HomeWWL67%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %75%67%100%
Points / game93.588.0110.0
Allowed / game87.890.779.0
Point differential+5.8-2.7+31.0
Avg total181.2178.7189.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%0%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
South East Melbourne
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLW67%
HomeW100%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %67%100%50%
Points / game94.7114.085.0
Allowed / game87.077.092.0
Point differential+7.7+37.0-7.0
Avg total181.7191.0177.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Melbourne United550100%101.480.4+21.0
2 Adelaide43175%93.587.8+5.8
3 South East Melbourne32167%94.787.0+7.7
4 Tasmania JackJumpers64267%84.882.7+2.2
5 Perth53260%85.284.8+0.4
6 Sydney52340%87.484.8+2.6
7 Brisbane Bullets62433%91.293.0-1.8
8 Cairns Taipans62433%75.592.5-17.0
9 Illawarra Hawks41325%93.597.2-3.8
10 New Zealand Breakers61517%88.096.5-8.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Adelaide2822162288
South East Melbourne1611182671
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