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Illawarra Hawks vs Adelaide Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 05 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 08:30
Final 100-99
27-21 18-30 24-27 31-21
Position#8
Record10-18
FormLWWLL
Points / game92.2
Allowed / game97.1
vs
Position#3
Record21-8
FormLWLWL
Points / game92.8
Allowed / game87.6
AustraliaNBLRound 20· WIN Entertainment Centre
Other2025-26
Meetings · Illawarra Hawks v Adelaide
19 Nov 2026
ILLA v ADEL
upcoming
02 Oct 2026
ILLA114
ADEL92
05 Feb 2026
ILLA100
ADEL99
20 Dec 2025
ILLA78
ADEL84
05 Oct 2024
ILLA100
ADEL102
20 Jan 2024
ILLA89
ADEL96
31 Dec 2023
ILLA91
ADEL84
03 Nov 2022
ILLA80
ADEL96
25 Feb 2022
ILLA87
ADEL71
24 Jan 2022
ILLA100
ADEL89
30 May 2021
ILLA97
ADEL83
11 May 2021
ILLA71
ADEL66
04 Mar 2021
ILLA98
ADEL89
21 Oct 2019
ILLA92
ADEL98
10 Jan 2019
ILLA96
ADEL102
25 Nov 2018
ILLA120
ADEL109
11 Feb 2018
ILLA87
ADEL111
21 Jan 2018
ILLA93
ADEL112
19 Feb 2017
ILLA100
ADEL94
28 Jan 2017
ILLA95
ADEL92
07 Oct 2016
ILLA122
ADEL88
12 Feb 2016
ILLA106
ADEL95
28 Jan 2016
ILLA104
ADEL97
22 Feb 2015
ILLA85
ADEL105
23 Jan 2015
ILLA85
ADEL89
28 Feb 2014
ILLA91
ADEL89
09 Feb 2014
ILLA102
ADEL80
23 Mar 2013
ILLA74
ADEL64
22 Feb 2013
ILLA90
ADEL91
25 Mar 2012
ILLA92
ADEL78
16 Oct 2011
ILLA97
ADEL89
12 Mar 2011
ILLA87
ADEL60
10 Dec 2010
ILLA81
ADEL79
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Illawarra Hawks winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Adelaide winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Illawarra HawksAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHawks
Date
Competition
Sydney
#1
L
84-108
84
108
-24
72avg 86
A25/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
92-90
92
90
+2
89avg 86
H31/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
96-78
96
78
+18
90avg 86
H03/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
113-124 OT
113
124
-11
108avg 86
A08/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
L
96-101
96
101
-5
91avg 86
H11/01
NBL
Perth
#5
L
87-92
87
92
-5
no box
A16/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
101-91
101
91
+10
102avg 86
A24/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
113-75
113
75
+38
117avg 86
A26/01
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
104-122
104
122
-18
94avg 86
A29/01
NBL
Perth
#5
L
99-106
99
106
-7
89avg 86
H31/01
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-34
22-28
17-21
26-25
23-18
27-21
23-26
19-25
22-18
23-31
27-15
24-14
25-23
25-32
29-24
27-27
25-28
18-21
23-22
30-30
13-18
24-26
21-21
29-27
27-26
33-22
22-26
19-17
22-11
33-20
41-21
17-23
22-28
23-35
29-28
30-31
30-25
24-23
20-32
25-26
197.2Avg total
98.5Scored
98.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)92.297.1189.3-4.936%
Season at home (14)92.394.6186.9-2.343%
Season away (14)92.199.6191.8-7.529%
Last 10 (10)98.598.7197.2-0.240%
Last 5 (5)100.897.2198.0+3.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)90.7101.1191.8-10.419%
vs Similar (6)87.298.7185.8-11.533%
vs Weaker (8)99.484.9184.2+14.575%
This opponent (Adelaide) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AdelaideAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAdelaide
Date
Competition
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
93-73
93
73
+20
87avg 87
H24/12
NBL
Perth
#5
W
95-84
95
84
+11
92avg 87
H28/12
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
85-79
85
79
+6
81avg 87
H02/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
97-86
97
86
+11
97avg 87
A04/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
L
72-80
72
80
-8
61avg 87
H09/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
89-108
89
108
-19
no box
H18/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
W
112-110 OT
112
110
+2
101avg 87
A23/01
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
101-106
101
106
-5
104avg 87
A25/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
107-74
107
74
+33
116avg 87
A28/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
77-97
77
97
-20
68avg 87
H31/01
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-21
27-21
23-19
20-12
20-29
26-20
29-9
20-26
19-26
16-15
21-18
29-20
15-20
23-25
30-20
29-21
16-13
11-27
24-20
21-20
23-31
20-22
26-28
20-27
23-22
25-22
22-27
23-22
20-22
26-37
24-25
31-22
33-24
19-22
16-9
39-19
18-18
22-30
16-23
21-26
182.5Avg total
92.8Scored
89.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)92.887.6180.3+5.272%
Season at home (16)90.487.6178.0+2.869%
Season away (13)95.787.5183.2+8.277%
Last 10 (10)92.889.7182.5+3.160%
Last 5 (5)97.299.0196.2-1.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)86.891.9178.7-5.133%
vs Similar (10)93.390.2183.5+3.170%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)95.581.4176.9+14.2100%
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: -1.6-1.6Q2Q2: -0.7-0.7Q2: -2.6-2.6Q3Q3: +1.6+1.6Q3: +3.3+3.3Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: +3.8+3.8
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: -1.6-1.6Q2Q2: -0.7-0.7Q2: -2.6-2.6Q3Q3: +1.6+1.6Q3: +3.3+3.3Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: +3.8+3.8
Illawarra HawksAdelaide
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Illawarra HawksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sydney
#1
L
41-62
41
62
-21
A25/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
50-39
50
39
+11
H31/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
L
45-49
45
49
-4
H03/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
50-55
50
55
-5
A08/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
L
43-49
43
49
-6
H11/01
NBL
Perth
#5
L
37-44
37
44
-7
A16/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
60-48
60
48
+12
A24/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
55-31
55
31
+24
A26/01
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
45-63
45
63
-18
A29/01
NBL
Perth
#5
W
54-48
54
48
+6
H31/01
NBL
96.8Avg total
48.0Scored
48.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.647.794.3-1.137%-
Last 30 at home (14)46.947.694.4-0.736%-
Last 30 away (16)46.347.894.1-1.538%-
Last 10 (10)48.048.896.8-0.840%-
Last 5 (5)50.246.897.0+3.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)44.848.993.6-4.131%-
vs Similar (6)46.849.596.3-2.733%-
vs Weaker (8)50.044.094.0+6.050%-
This opponent (Adelaide) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AdelaideLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
50-42
50
42
+8
H24/12
NBL
Perth
#5
L
46-49
46
49
-3
H28/12
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
35-41
35
41
-6
H02/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
L
38-45
38
45
-7
A04/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
L
27-40
27
40
-13
H09/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
43-53
43
53
-10
H18/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
W
48-44
48
44
+4
A23/01
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
46-59
46
59
-13
A25/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
52-46
52
46
+6
A28/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
40-48
40
48
-8
H31/01
NBL
89.2Avg total
42.5Scored
46.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.343.488.7+1.953%-
Last 30 at home (16)45.144.289.3+0.850%-
Last 30 away (14)45.542.487.9+3.157%-
Last 10 (10)42.546.789.2-4.230%-
Last 5 (5)45.850.095.8-4.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)43.743.887.4-0.133%-
vs Similar (10)44.844.289.0+0.650%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)47.042.489.4+4.673%-
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Illawarra Hawkstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Illawarra Hawks: 96.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀58%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.6 pts a game · 58% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.8 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.228.3
58.7%
54.6%56.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.48.8
33.3%
33.3%26.4
🏀 Free throws18.913.8
73.0%
74.8%13.8
They take 74.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Adelaidetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide: 91.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.0 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.4 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.021.4
53.5%
54.6%42.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.211.0
40.4%
33.3%33.0
🏀 Free throws19.015.4
81.1%
74.8%15.4
They take 67.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 05 Feb 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Illawarra Hawks
LLWWLLLWWL
Adelaide
LWLWLLWWWW
#8
League position
#3
-0.1
Net rating
+6.8
109.3
Offensive rating
110.9
109.4
Defensive rating
104.1
55.6%
Effective FG%
56.4%
54.2%
Opp. effective FG%
49.7%
13.4%
Turnover %
14.1%
34.3%
Off. rebound %
32.4%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.28
33.3%
3-point %
40.4%
56.3%
Assist %
66.0%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence109.3 · 110.9Defence109.4 · 104.1Shooting55.6% · 56.4%3-point %33.3% · 40.4%Ball care13.4% · 14.1%Off. rebounds34.3% · 32.4%Free throws0.25 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)40% · 60%
■ Illawarra Hawks   ■ Adelaide
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Illawarra Hawks wins
9
Adelaide wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/01/26HPerth99-106
29/01/26ASydney104-122
26/01/26ABrisbane Bullets113-75
24/01/26ATasmania JackJumpers101-91
16/01/26APerth87-92
11/01/26HNew Zealand Breakers96-101
08/01/26ASouth East Melbourne113-124 OT
03/01/26HCairns Taipans96-78
31/12/25HTasmania JackJumpers92-90
25/12/25ASydney84-108
Adelaidelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/01/26HSouth East Melbourne77-97
28/01/26ABrisbane Bullets107-74
25/01/26ASydney101-106
23/01/26ANew Zealand Breakers112-110 OT
18/01/26HSouth East Melbourne89-108
09/01/26HTasmania JackJumpers72-80
04/01/26ABrisbane Bullets97-86
02/01/26HSydney85-79
28/12/25HPerth95-84
24/12/25HCairns Taipans93-73

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Illawarra Hawks
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLL36%
HomeLWWLL43%
AwayLLWWL29%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281414
Win %36%43%29%
Points / game92.292.392.1
Allowed / game97.194.699.6
Point differential-4.9-2.3-7.5
Avg total189.3186.9191.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%29%21%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (8)40% (5)33% (3)
Overtime %7%7%7%
Adelaide
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL72%
HomeWWLLL69%
AwayWWWLW77%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291613
Win %72%69%77%
Points / game92.890.495.7
Allowed / game87.687.687.5
Point differential+5.2+2.8+8.2
Avg total180.3178.0183.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+34%31%38%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (9)100% (2)57% (7)
Overtime %14%12%15%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Adelaide2921872%92.887.6+5.2
2 South East Melbourne3021970%100.891.6+9.2
3 Sydney2920969%97.387.4+9.9
4 Melbourne United29181162%92.887.7+5.1
5 Perth29181162%90.886.4+4.4
6 Tasmania JackJumpers30131743%86.286.4-0.2
7 New Zealand Breakers30111937%90.492.9-2.5
8 Illawarra Hawks28101836%92.297.1-4.9
9 Cairns Taipans2982128%83.497.2-13.8
10 Brisbane Bullets2962321%83.396.2-12.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Illawarra Hawks27182431100
Adelaide2130272199
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