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Adelaide vs South East Melbourne Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 18 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 03:30
Final 89-108
23-31 20-22 26-28 20-27
Position#3
Record19-5
FormWWWWL
Points / game91.8
Allowed / game85.2
vs
Position#2
Record16-8
FormLWWWL
Points / game98.8
Allowed / game91.3
AustraliaNBLRound 17
Other2025-26
Meetings · Adelaide v South East Melbourne
02 Jan 2027
ADEL v SOUT
upcoming
02 Dec 2026
ADEL v SOUT
upcoming
17 Mar 2026
ADEL108
SOUT96
10 Mar 2026
ADEL104
SOUT97
31 Jan 2026
ADEL77
SOUT97
18 Jan 2026
ADEL89
SOUT108
16 Oct 2025
ADEL88
SOUT71
03 Oct 2024
ADEL93
SOUT83
17 Nov 2023
ADEL96
SOUT93
19 Oct 2023
ADEL85
SOUT102
24 Dec 2022
ADEL94
SOUT88
27 Mar 2022
ADEL100
SOUT92
04 Mar 2022
ADEL76
SOUT83
23 Feb 2021
ADEL99
SOUT94
20 Jan 2021
ADEL83
SOUT89
17 Jan 2021
ADEL116
SOUT108
02 Feb 2020
ADEL100
SOUT93
13 Dec 2019
ADEL113
SOUT111
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
South East Melbourne winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AdelaideAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAdelaide
Date
Competition
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
90-65
90
65
+25
92avg 86
H05/12
NBL
Perth
#5
W
95-94
95
94
+1
94avg 86
A07/12
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
W
114-105 OT
114
105
+9
110avg 86
H12/12
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
93-97 OT
93
97
-4
86avg 86
A17/12
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
84-78
84
78
+6
81avg 86
A20/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
93-73
93
73
+20
87avg 86
H24/12
NBL
Perth
#5
W
95-84
95
84
+11
92avg 86
H28/12
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
85-79
85
79
+6
81avg 86
H02/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
97-86
97
86
+11
97avg 86
A04/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
L
72-80
72
80
-8
61avg 86
H09/01
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-20
27-13
27-12
13-20
22-25
18-25
20-28
35-16
27-22
32-26
22-19
14-28
29-23
27-20
9-23
20-19
21-21
20-18
19-20
24-19
23-21
27-21
23-19
20-12
20-29
26-20
29-9
20-26
19-26
16-15
21-18
29-20
15-20
23-25
30-20
29-21
16-13
11-27
24-20
21-20
175.9Avg total
91.8Scored
84.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)91.885.2177.0+6.779%
Season at home (14)91.485.5176.9+5.979%
Season away (10)92.484.7177.1+7.780%
Last 10 (10)91.884.1175.9+7.780%
Last 5 (5)88.480.4168.8+8.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)90.291.2181.4-1.044%
vs Similar (11)91.387.5178.7+3.864%
vs Weaker (10)94.482.1176.5+12.3100%
This opponent (South East Melbourne) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
South East MelbourneAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMelbourne
Date
Competition
Melbourne United
#4
W
111-86
111
86
+25
105avg 87
H07/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
L
81-89
81
89
-8
68avg 87
H10/12
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
W
92-80
92
80
+12
85avg 87
H13/12
NBL
Perth
#5
W
77-76
77
76
+1
61avg 87
A18/12
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
107-78
107
78
+29
98avg 87
H20/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
L
84-87
84
87
-3
76avg 87
A29/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
111-96
111
96
+15
98avg 87
A31/12
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
124-117
124
117
+7
111avg 87
A05/01
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
124-113 OT
124
113
+11
108avg 87
H08/01
NBL
Perth
#5
L
97-107
97
107
-10
83avg 87
H10/01
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-22
28-23
23-21
28-20
36-27
12-25
18-18
15-19
26-20
18-21
27-21
21-18
17-22
9-18
31-20
20-16
22-17
33-21
25-12
27-28
15-23
18-26
23-17
28-21
21-28
27-24
35-26
28-18
31-35
28-25
36-32
29-25
23-25
32-25
24-29
27-27
26-32
24-26
25-21
22-28
193.7Avg total
100.8Scored
92.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)98.891.3190.1+7.567%
Season at home (12)100.889.7190.5+11.267%
Season away (12)96.892.9189.8+3.967%
Last 10 (10)100.892.9193.7+7.970%
Last 5 (5)108.0104.0212.0+4.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)105.4106.6212.0-1.260%
vs Similar (8)92.697.2189.9-4.638%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)98.788.3187.0+10.471%
This opponent (Adelaide) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: -0.2-0.2Q2Q2: +1.7+1.7Q2: -0.5-0.5Q3Q3: +3.6+3.6Q3: +5.0+5.0Q4Q4: +2.4+2.4Q4: +2.5+2.5
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: -0.2-0.2Q2Q2: +1.7+1.7Q2: -0.5-0.5Q3Q3: +3.6+3.6Q3: +5.0+5.0Q4Q4: +2.4+2.4Q4: +2.5+2.5
AdelaideSouth East Melbourne
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AdelaideLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
50-33
50
33
+17
H05/12
NBL
Perth
#5
L
40-50
40
50
-10
A07/12
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
W
59-48
59
48
+11
H12/12
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
56-43
56
43
+13
A17/12
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
41-39
41
39
+2
A20/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
50-42
50
42
+8
H24/12
NBL
Perth
#5
L
46-49
46
49
-3
H28/12
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
35-41
35
41
-6
H02/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
L
38-45
38
45
-7
A04/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
L
27-40
27
40
-13
H09/01
NBL
87.2Avg total
44.2Scored
43.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.042.788.7+3.460%-
Last 30 at home (16)46.242.889.0+3.562%-
Last 30 away (14)45.842.688.4+3.257%-
Last 10 (10)44.243.087.2+1.250%-
Last 5 (5)39.243.482.6-4.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)46.042.888.8+3.256%-
vs Similar (11)45.643.288.8+2.555%-
vs Weaker (10)46.542.088.5+4.570%-
This opponent (South East Melbourne) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
South East MelbourneLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Melbourne United
#4
W
60-45
60
45
+15
H07/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
L
48-52
48
52
-4
H10/12
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
W
44-41
44
41
+3
H13/12
NBL
Perth
#5
L
26-40
26
40
-14
A18/12
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
55-38
55
38
+17
H20/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
L
33-49
33
49
-16
A29/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
L
48-52
48
52
-4
A31/12
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
59-60
59
60
-1
A05/01
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
55-50
55
50
+5
H08/01
NBL
Perth
#5
L
50-58
50
58
-8
H10/01
NBL
96.3Avg total
47.8Scored
48.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)48.648.196.7+0.547%-
Last 30 at home (14)49.544.994.4+4.657%-
Last 30 away (16)47.850.998.6-3.138%-
Last 10 (10)47.848.596.3-0.740%-
Last 5 (5)49.053.8102.8-4.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)52.055.8107.8-3.840%-
vs Similar (8)49.249.598.8-0.238%-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)47.245.292.4+2.153%-
This opponent (Adelaide) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaidetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide: 91.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.4 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.9 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.4 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.923.2
51.7%
54.6%46.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.89.3
37.5%
33.3%27.9
🏀 Free throws22.017.4
79.1%
74.8%17.4
They take 69.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
South East Melbournetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

South East Melbourne: 100.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.8 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.6 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.8 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.924.9
56.7%
54.6%49.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.711.2
31.4%
33.3%33.6
🏀 Free throws22.316.8
75.3%
74.8%16.8
They take 79.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 18 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide
LWWWWWLWWW
South East Melbourne
LWWWLWWWLW
#3
League position
#2
+10.7
Net rating
+9.4
116.4
Offensive rating
115.9
105.7
Defensive rating
106.6
53.3%
Effective FG%
52.4%
48.0%
Opp. effective FG%
52.1%
12.2%
Turnover %
10.9%
29.7%
Off. rebound %
33.6%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.28
37.5%
3-point %
31.4%
67.7%
Assist %
56.2%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence116.4 · 115.9Defence105.7 · 106.6Shooting53.3% · 52.4%3-point %37.5% · 31.4%Ball care12.2% · 10.9%Off. rebounds29.7% · 33.6%Free throws0.32 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)80% · 70%
■ Adelaide   ■ South East Melbourne
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Adelaidelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/01/26HTasmania JackJumpers72-80
04/01/26ABrisbane Bullets97-86
02/01/26HSydney85-79
28/12/25HPerth95-84
24/12/25HCairns Taipans93-73
20/12/25AIllawarra Hawks84-78
17/12/25ASydney93-97 OT
12/12/25HMelbourne United114-105 OT
07/12/25APerth95-94
05/12/25HBrisbane Bullets90-65
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/01/26HPerth97-107
08/01/26HIllawarra Hawks124-113 OT
05/01/26ASydney124-117
31/12/25ACairns Taipans111-96
29/12/25ATasmania JackJumpers84-87
20/12/25HBrisbane Bullets107-78
18/12/25APerth77-76
13/12/25HNew Zealand Breakers92-80
10/12/25HTasmania JackJumpers81-89
07/12/25HMelbourne United111-86

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL79%
HomeWWWWL79%
AwayWWLWW80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241410
Win %79%79%80%
Points / game91.891.492.4
Allowed / game85.285.584.7
Point differential+6.7+5.9+7.7
Avg total177.0176.9177.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%36%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won71% (7)100% (2)60% (5)
Overtime %12%14%10%
South East Melbourne
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL67%
HomeLWWWL67%
AwayLWLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241212
Win %67%67%67%
Points / game98.8100.896.8
Allowed / game91.389.792.9
Point differential+7.5+11.2+3.9
Avg total190.1190.5189.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+46%58%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)100% (1)50% (4)
Overtime %8%8%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Adelaide2419579%91.885.2+6.7
2 South East Melbourne2416867%98.891.3+7.5
3 Sydney2516964%95.485.8+9.6
4 Melbourne United26161062%93.288.7+4.5
5 Perth25151060%89.986.8+3.1
6 Tasmania JackJumpers26121446%85.284.6+0.6
7 New Zealand Breakers25101540%88.790.1-1.4
8 Illawarra Hawks2481633%90.296.9-6.7
9 Cairns Taipans2571828%82.995.9-13.0
10 Brisbane Bullets2662023%84.795.1-10.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Adelaide2320262089
South East Melbourne31222827108
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