Melbourne United vs Adelaide Result & Analysis

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (29)	92.8	87.7	180.4	+5.1	62%
Season at home (14)	93.6	83.1	176.7	+10.6	71%
Season away (15)	91.9	91.9	183.9	+0.0	53%
Last 10 (10)	86.9	84.1	171.0	+2.8	50%
Last 5 (5)	88.0	82.0	170.0	+6.0	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)	96.6	98.2	194.8	-1.6	20%
vs Similar ◀ (8)	90.4	90.6	181.0	-0.2	62%
vs Weaker (17)	93.4	84.7	178.1	+8.7	71%

This opponent (Adelaide) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Adelaide

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormAdelaide

Date

Competition

Perth

95-84

+11

92avg 88

H28/12

NBL

Sydney

85-79

81avg 88

H02/01

NBL

Brisbane Bullets

#10

97-86

+11

97avg 88

A04/01

NBL

Tasmania JackJumpers

72-80

-8

61avg 88

H09/01

NBL

South East Melbourne

89-108

108

-19

no box

H18/01

NBL

New Zealand Breakers

112-110 OT

112

110

101avg 88

A23/01

NBL

Sydney

101-106

101

106

-5

104avg 88

A25/01

NBL

Brisbane Bullets

#10

107-74

107

+33

116avg 88

A28/01

NBL

South East Melbourne

77-97

-20

68avg 88

H31/01

NBL

Illawarra Hawks

99-100

100

-1

99avg 88

A05/02

NBL

20-29

26-20

29-9

20-26

19-26

16-15

21-18

29-20

15-20

23-25

30-20

29-21

16-13

11-27

24-20

21-20

23-31

20-22

26-28

20-27

23-22

25-22

22-27

23-22

20-22

26-37

24-25

31-22

33-24

19-22

16-9

39-19

18-18

22-30

16-23

21-26

21-27

30-18

27-24

21-31

185.8Avg total

93.4Scored

92.4Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (30)	93.0	88.0	180.9	+5.0	70%
Season at home (16)	90.4	87.6	178.0	+2.8	69%
Season away (14)	95.9	88.4	184.3	+7.6	71%
Last 10 (10)	93.4	92.4	185.8	+1.0	50%
Last 5 (5)	99.2	97.4	196.6	+1.8	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	88.2	92.8	181.0	-4.5	38%
vs Similar ◀ (10)	93.3	90.2	183.5	+3.1	70%
vs Weaker (12)	95.8	82.9	178.8	+12.9	92%

This opponent (Melbourne United) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

Melbourne UnitedAdelaide

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	24.6	23.7	48.3	+0.9	50%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	24.8	21.4	46.1	+3.4	64%	-
Last 30 away (16)	24.4	25.8	50.2	-1.4	38%	-
Last 10 (10)	21.7	23.4	45.1	-1.7	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	21.6	23.6	45.2	-2.0	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)	25.6	26.2	51.8	-0.6	40%	-
vs Similar ◀ (8)	21.2	25.9	47.1	-4.6	25%	-
vs Weaker (17)	25.9	22.0	47.9	+3.9	65%	-

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	22.4	21.4	43.9	+1.0	57%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	21.9	22.1	43.9	-0.2	56%	-
Last 30 away (14)	23.1	20.7	43.8	+2.4	57%	-
Last 10 (10)	20.8	23.2	44.0	-2.4	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	23.0	22.6	45.6	+0.4	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	21.9	23.5	45.4	-1.6	25%	-
vs Similar ◀ (10)	21.2	19.1	40.3	+2.1	80%	-
vs Weaker (12)	23.8	22.0	45.8	+1.8	58%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	23.4	21.6	45.0	+1.9	60%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	23.8	19.1	42.9	+4.6	86%	-
Last 30 away (16)	23.1	23.7	46.8	-0.6	38%	-
Last 10 (10)	24.2	20.4	44.6	+3.8	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	25.2	21.0	46.2	+4.2	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)	24.0	27.2	51.2	-3.2	40%	-
vs Similar ◀ (8)	24.1	22.9	47.0	+1.2	62%	-
vs Weaker (17)	22.9	19.3	42.2	+3.6	65%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	23.0	22.6	45.6	+0.4	50%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	23.2	22.2	45.4	+1.0	50%	-
Last 30 away (14)	22.9	23.1	45.9	-0.2	50%	-
Last 10 (10)	21.8	23.8	45.6	-2.0	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	24.4	25.8	50.2	-1.4	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	21.6	22.5	44.1	-0.9	38%	-
vs Similar ◀ (10)	23.6	25.1	48.7	-1.5	50%	-
vs Weaker (12)	23.5	20.6	44.1	+2.9	58%	-

Melbourne UnitedLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Illawarra Hawks

47-41

H18/12

NBL

Tasmania JackJumpers

39-42

-3

H23/12

NBL

Brisbane Bullets

#10

59-45

+14

A27/12

NBL

Tasmania JackJumpers

35-44

-9

A03/01

NBL

Cairns Taipans

45-43

H07/01

NBL

Sydney

48-56

-8

A11/01

NBL

Tasmania JackJumpers

43-42

H17/01

NBL

Brisbane Bullets

#10

57-36

+21

H21/01

NBL

Perth

38-40

-2

A25/01

NBL

New Zealand Breakers

48-49

-1

A30/01

NBL

89.7Avg total

45.9Scored

43.8Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	48.0	45.3	93.3	+2.7	60%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	48.6	40.5	89.1	+8.1	86%	-
Last 30 away (16)	47.6	49.5	97.1	-1.9	38%	-
Last 10 (10)	45.9	43.8	89.7	+2.1	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	46.8	44.6	91.4	+2.2	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)	49.6	53.4	103.0	-3.8	20%	-
vs Similar ◀ (8)	45.4	48.8	94.1	-3.4	50%	-
vs Weaker (17)	48.8	41.3	90.1	+7.5	76%	-

This opponent (Adelaide) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

AdelaideLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Perth

46-49

-3

H28/12

NBL

Sydney

35-41

-6

H02/01

NBL

Brisbane Bullets

#10

38-45

-7

A04/01

NBL

Tasmania JackJumpers

27-40

-13

H09/01

NBL

South East Melbourne

43-53

-10

H18/01

NBL

New Zealand Breakers

48-44

A23/01

NBL

Sydney

46-59

-13

A25/01

NBL

Brisbane Bullets

#10

52-46

A28/01

NBL

South East Melbourne

40-48

-8

H31/01

NBL

Illawarra Hawks

51-45

A05/02

NBL

89.6Avg total

42.6Scored

47.0Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	45.5	44.0	89.5	+1.4	53%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	45.1	44.2	89.3	+0.8	50%	-
Last 30 away (14)	45.9	43.8	89.7	+2.1	57%	-
Last 10 (10)	42.6	47.0	89.6	-4.4	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	47.4	48.4	95.8	-1.0	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	43.5	46.0	89.5	-2.5	25%	-
vs Similar ◀ (10)	44.8	44.2	89.0	+0.6	50%	-
vs Weaker (12)	47.3	42.6	89.9	+4.8	75%	-

This opponent (Melbourne United) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	21.6	21.1	42.7	+0.5	43%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	22.3	21.9	44.2	+0.4	50%	-
Last 30 away (16)	21.0	20.3	41.3	+0.7	38%	-
Last 10 (10)	20.6	21.5	42.1	-0.9	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	20.8	17.6	38.4	+3.2	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)	23.4	22.2	45.6	+1.2	40%	-
vs Similar ◀ (8)	19.1	19.6	38.8	-0.5	25%	-
vs Weaker (17)	22.2	21.4	43.6	+0.8	53%	-

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	23.7	20.8	44.5	+2.8	60%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	24.8	20.5	45.3	+4.3	69%	-
Last 30 away (14)	22.4	21.2	43.6	+1.1	50%	-
Last 10 (10)	23.5	20.3	43.8	+3.2	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	21.0	21.6	42.6	-0.6	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	20.6	22.6	43.2	-2.0	25%	-
vs Similar ◀ (10)	24.2	21.8	46.0	+2.4	60%	-
vs Weaker (12)	25.2	18.8	44.1	+6.4	83%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	23.1	21.3	44.4	+1.8	50%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	22.6	20.1	42.7	+2.6	50%	-
Last 30 away (16)	23.5	22.3	45.8	+1.2	50%	-
Last 10 (10)	20.4	18.8	39.2	+1.6	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	20.4	19.8	40.2	+0.6	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)	23.2	21.0	44.2	+2.2	60%	-
vs Similar ◀ (8)	24.6	19.9	44.5	+4.8	62%	-
vs Weaker (17)	22.4	22.0	44.4	+0.4	41%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	21.8	21.5	43.3	+0.4	53%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	18.4	21.6	40.1	-3.2	31%	-
Last 30 away (14)	25.7	21.3	47.0	+4.4	79%	-
Last 10 (10)	25.4	23.4	48.8	+2.0	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	27.0	24.0	51.0	+3.0	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	23.1	22.6	45.8	+0.5	50%	-
vs Similar ◀ (10)	20.5	21.5	42.0	-1.0	60%	-
vs Weaker (12)	22.1	20.7	42.8	+1.4	50%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	44.7	42.3	87.0	+2.4	53%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	44.9	42.0	86.9	+2.9	57%	-
Last 30 away (16)	44.5	42.6	87.1	+1.9	50%	-
Last 10 (10)	41.0	40.3	81.3	+0.7	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	41.2	37.4	78.6	+3.8	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)	46.6	43.2	89.8	+3.4	60%	-
vs Similar ◀ (8)	43.8	39.5	83.2	+4.2	75%	-
vs Weaker (17)	44.6	43.4	88.0	+1.2	41%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	45.5	42.3	87.8	+3.2	57%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	43.2	42.1	85.4	+1.1	50%	-
Last 30 away (14)	48.1	42.5	90.6	+5.6	64%	-
Last 10 (10)	48.9	43.7	92.6	+5.2	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	48.0	45.6	93.6	+2.4	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	43.8	45.2	89.0	-1.5	38%	-
vs Similar ◀ (10)	44.7	43.3	88.0	+1.4	50%	-
vs Weaker (12)	47.3	39.5	86.8	+7.8	75%	-

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:

Melbourne Unitedtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Melbourne United: 87.2 points a game scored

🏀🏀51%

🏀🏀🏀30%

🏀19%

🏀🏀 2-pointers44.8 pts a game · 51% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.1 pts a game · 30% of the points

🏀 Free throws16.3 pts a game · 19% of the points

League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game

51%

32%

17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	42.3	22.4	53.0%	54.6%	44.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	28.4	8.7	30.6%	33.3%	26.1
🏀 Free throws	20.9	16.3	78.0%	74.8%	16.3

They take 70.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Adelaidetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide: 92.9 points a game scored

🏀🏀46%

🏀🏀🏀37%

🏀17%

🏀🏀 2-pointers43.0 pts a game · 46% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.5 pts a game · 37% of the points

🏀 Free throws15.4 pts a game · 17% of the points

League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game

51%

32%

17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	39.7	21.5	54.2%	54.6%	43.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	28.1	11.5	40.9%	33.3%	34.5
🏀 Free throws	18.7	15.4	82.4%	74.8%	15.4

They take 67.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	43.4	22.4	51.6%	54.6%	44.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	26.0	8.3	31.9%	33.3%	24.9
🏀 Free throws	21.9	14.8	67.6%	74.8%	14.8

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	44.6	23.6	52.9%	54.6%	47.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	28.0	8.9	31.8%	33.3%	26.7
🏀 Free throws	18.7	13.9	74.3%	74.8%	13.9

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	41.7	22.1	53.0%	54.6%	44.1
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	28.6	9.2	32.2%	33.3%	27.6
🏀 Free throws	22.7	17.3	76.1%	74.8%	17.3

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	41.6	22.3	53.5%	54.6%	44.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	27.3	10.0	36.6%	33.3%	29.9
🏀 Free throws	21.8	17.2	78.8%	74.8%	17.2

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	43.6	22.6	51.8%	54.6%	45.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	24.7	8.8	35.6%	33.3%	26.4
🏀 Free throws	20.6	14.8	71.9%	74.8%	14.8

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	44.1	23.4	53.0%	54.6%	46.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	28.1	8.7	30.9%	33.3%	26.1
🏀 Free throws	18.4	13.3	72.1%	74.8%	13.3

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 07 Feb 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.

Melbourne United

LWWWLLLWLW

Adelaide

LLWLWLLWWW

League position

+3.2

Net rating

+6.0

103.7

Offensive rating

109.7

100.5

Defensive rating

103.7

50.1%

Effective FG%

57.2%

50.2%

Opp. effective FG%

50.9%

14.7%

Turnover %

14.8%

29.4%

Off. rebound %

34.3%

0.30

Free-throw rate

0.28

30.6%

3-point %

40.9%

60.8%

Assist %

66.4%

50%

Form (last 10/10)

50%

Profile

■ Melbourne United ■ Adelaide

The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Melbourne United wins

Adelaide wins

Date	Game	Score
12/12/25	Adelaide v Melbourne United	114-105 OT
26/10/25	Melbourne United v Adelaide	81-80
04/01/25	Adelaide v Melbourne United	100-81
17/11/24	Melbourne United v Adelaide	113-93
13/10/24	Melbourne United v Adelaide	106-79
06/01/24	Adelaide v Melbourne United	100-96
16/12/23	Melbourne United v Adelaide	107-96
01/10/23	Adelaide v Melbourne United	74-82
05/02/23	Melbourne United v Adelaide	116-107
21/01/23	Adelaide v Melbourne United	87-94

Melbourne Unitedlast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
30/01/26	A	New Zealand Breakers	95-97
25/01/26	A	Perth	74-73
21/01/26	H	Brisbane Bullets	98-66
17/01/26	H	Tasmania JackJumpers	79-77
11/01/26	A	Sydney	94-97
07/01/26	H	Cairns Taipans	92-93
03/01/26	A	Tasmania JackJumpers	75-84
27/12/25	A	Brisbane Bullets	92-87
23/12/25	H	Tasmania JackJumpers	73-92
18/12/25	H	Illawarra Hawks	97-75

Adelaidelast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
05/02/26	A	Illawarra Hawks	99-100
31/01/26	H	South East Melbourne	77-97
28/01/26	A	Brisbane Bullets	107-74
25/01/26	A	Sydney	101-106
23/01/26	A	New Zealand Breakers	112-110 OT
18/01/26	H	South East Melbourne	89-108
09/01/26	H	Tasmania JackJumpers	72-80
04/01/26	A	Brisbane Bullets	97-86
02/01/26	H	Sydney	85-79
28/12/25	H	Perth	95-84

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Melbourne United

NBL 2025-26

Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LWWWL	62%
Home	WLLWW	71%
Away	WLLWL	53%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	29	14	15
Win %	62%	71%	53%
Points / game	92.8	93.6	91.9
Allowed / game	87.7	83.1	91.9
Point differential	+5.1	+10.6	+0.0
Avg total	180.4	176.7	183.9
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	34%	50%	20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	60% (10)	50% (4)	67% (6)
Overtime %	7%	7%	7%

Adelaide

NBL 2025-26

Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WLWLL	70%
Home	WWLLL	69%
Away	WWLWL	71%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	30	16	14
Win %	70%	69%	71%
Points / game	93.0	90.4	95.9
Allowed / game	88.0	87.6	88.4
Point differential	+5.0	+2.8	+7.6
Avg total	180.9	178.0	184.3
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	33%	31%	36%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	60% (10)	100% (2)	50% (8)
Overtime %	13%	12%	14%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	South East Melbourne	30	21	9	70%	100.8	91.6	+9.2
2	Adelaide	30	21	9	70%	93.0	88.0	+5.0
3	Sydney	29	20	9	69%	97.3	87.4	+9.9
4	Perth	30	19	11	63%	91.1	86.3	+4.8
5	Melbourne United	29	18	11	62%	92.8	87.7	+5.1
6	Tasmania JackJumpers	31	14	17	45%	87.1	85.8	+1.2
7	New Zealand Breakers	31	12	19	39%	90.9	93.0	-2.1
8	Illawarra Hawks	30	11	19	37%	92.6	97.5	-4.9
9	Cairns Taipans	30	8	22	27%	83.5	97.3	-13.8
10	Brisbane Bullets	30	6	24	20%	82.9	96.8	-13.9

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Melbourne United	23	16	14	23	76
Adelaide	29	12	26	20	87

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Melbourne United vs Adelaide Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Profile

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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