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Valparaiso vs Indiana State Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 06 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 63-62
0-0 28-37 0-0 35-25
Position#170
Record17-14
FormWWWWL
Points / game71.9
Allowed / game71.2
vs
Position#311
Record11-20
FormLLLLW
Points / game73.9
Allowed / game74.8
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Valparaiso v Indiana State
27 Jan 2027
VALP v INDI
upcoming
05 Mar 2026
VALP63
INDI62
15 Feb 2026
VALP76
INDI75
08 Jan 2025
VALP98
INDI95
21 Feb 2024
VALP64
INDI83
01 Jan 2023
VALP50
INDI68
05 Feb 2022
VALP79
INDI72
27 Feb 2021
VALP70
INDI58
26 Feb 2021
VALP43
INDI58
18 Jan 2020
VALP86
INDI77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valparaiso winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Indiana State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#311
W
76-72 OT
76
72
+4
A31/01
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
65-72
65
72
-7
A04/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
70-63 OT
70
63
+7
H07/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
81-76
81
76
+5
A10/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
L
64-86
64
86
-22
A13/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
76-75
76
75
+1
H15/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
79-72
79
72
+7
H19/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
71-67
71
67
+4
A21/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
74-71
74
71
+3
H26/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
L
79-80
79
80
-1
A28/02
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
27-37
0-0
39-29
0-0
33-40
0-0
32-32
0-0
28-26
0-0
30-32
0-0
38-40
0-0
43-36
0-0
34-34
0-0
30-52
0-0
49-43
0-0
27-32
0-0
35-35
0-0
44-37
0-0
31-29
0-0
40-38
0-0
36-37
0-0
38-34
0-0
42-34
0-0
37-46
146.9Avg total
73.5Scored
73.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)71.971.2143.1+0.755%
Season at home (17)72.465.1137.5+7.376%
Season away (14)71.378.5149.8-7.229%
Last 10 (10)73.573.4146.9+0.170%
Last 5 (5)75.873.0148.8+2.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)66.072.1138.1-6.140%
vs Similar ◀ (13)73.775.2148.8-1.554%
vs Weaker (7)77.963.6141.4+14.371%
This opponent (Indiana State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Indiana StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
74-76
74
76
-2
A28/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
L
72-76 OT
72
76
-4
H31/01
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
84-63
84
63
+21
A04/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
65-80
65
80
-15
H10/02
NCAA
Murray State
#102
L
72-74
72
74
-2
H13/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
L
75-76
75
76
-1
A15/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
60-81
60
81
-21
H19/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
70-87
70
87
-17
A22/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
55-66
55
66
-11
A26/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
79-63
79
63
+16
H01/03
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
32-41
0-0
42-35
0-0
37-27
0-0
29-39
0-0
46-29
0-0
38-34
0-0
32-37
0-0
33-43
0-0
21-43
0-0
51-31
0-0
43-49
0-0
32-27
0-0
34-36
0-0
26-45
0-0
25-39
0-0
45-48
0-0
23-36
0-0
32-30
0-0
35-31
0-0
44-32
144.8Avg total
70.6Scored
74.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)73.974.8148.8-0.935%
Season at home (15)77.572.5150.0+5.153%
Season away (16)70.677.1147.6-6.519%
Last 10 (10)70.674.2144.8-3.620%
Last 5 (5)67.874.6142.4-6.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)71.678.1149.6-6.528%
vs Similar ◀ (6)70.270.3140.5-0.233%
vs Weaker (6)84.566.8151.3+17.767%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: -0.2-0.2Q2: -4.0-4.0Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: -0.8-0.8Q4: +0.8+0.8
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: -0.2-0.2Q2: -4.0-4.0Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: -0.8-0.8Q4: +0.8+0.8
ValparaisoIndiana State
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#311
L
27-37
27
37
-10
A31/01
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A04/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
28-26
28
26
+2
H07/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A10/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
D
34-34
34
34
+0
A13/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
49-43
49
43
+6
H15/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
D
35-35
35
35
+0
H19/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
31-29
31
29
+2
A21/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
L
36-37
36
37
-1
H26/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
42-34
42
34
+8
A28/02
NCAA
70.8Avg total
35.3Scored
35.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.632.766.3+0.947%-
Last 30 at home (16)34.929.764.6+5.262%-
Last 30 away (14)32.136.168.1-4.029%-
Last 10 (10)35.335.570.8-0.240%-
Last 5 (5)38.635.674.2+3.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)31.833.064.8-1.240%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)33.834.668.4-0.838%-
vs Weaker (7)35.928.664.4+7.371%-
This opponent (Indiana State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Indiana StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
32-41
32
41
-9
A28/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
W
37-27
37
27
+10
H31/01
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
46-29
46
29
+17
A04/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
32-37
32
37
-5
H10/02
NCAA
Murray State
#102
L
21-43
21
43
-22
H13/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
L
43-49
43
49
-6
A15/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
34-36
34
36
-2
H19/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
25-39
25
39
-14
A22/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
23-36
23
36
-13
A26/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
35-31
35
31
+4
H01/03
NCAA
69.6Avg total
32.8Scored
36.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.635.970.5-1.343%-
Last 30 at home (15)36.833.370.1+3.560%-
Last 30 away (15)32.438.570.9-6.127%-
Last 10 (10)32.836.869.6-4.030%-
Last 5 (5)32.038.270.2-6.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)32.637.970.5-5.433%-
vs Similar ◀ (6)34.333.768.0+0.733%-
vs Weaker (6)41.032.073.0+9.083%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Valparaiso wins
5
Indiana State wins
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/02/26AEvansville79-80
26/02/26HDrake74-71
21/02/26AIllinois (Chi.)71-67
19/02/26HBradley79-72
15/02/26HIndiana State76-75
13/02/26AIllinois State64-86
10/02/26ADrake81-76
07/02/26HEvansville70-63 OT
04/02/26ABradley65-72
31/01/26AIndiana State76-72 OT
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/03/26HIllinois (Chi.)79-63
26/02/26ASouthern Illinois55-66
22/02/26ABelmont70-87
19/02/26HNorthern Iowa60-81
15/02/26AValparaiso75-76
13/02/26HMurray State72-74
10/02/26HSouthern Illinois65-80
04/02/26AEvansville84-63
31/01/26HValparaiso72-76 OT
28/01/26AIllinois (Chi.)74-76

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Valparaiso
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL55%
HomeLWWWW76%
AwayLWLWL29%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311714
Win %55%76%29%
Points / game71.972.471.3
Allowed / game71.265.178.5
Point differential+0.7+7.3-7.2
Avg total143.1137.5149.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+16%24%7%
Close games (≤5 pts) won54% (13)67% (6)43% (7)
Overtime %10%6%14%
Indiana State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW35%
HomeLLLLW53%
AwayLWLLL19%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311516
Win %35%53%19%
Points / game73.977.570.6
Allowed / game74.872.577.1
Point differential-0.9+5.1-6.5
Avg total148.8150.0147.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%33%6%
Close games (≤5 pts) won27% (11)40% (5)17% (6)
Overtime %10%20%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Belmont3226681%83.073.3+9.7
2 Illinois State31201165%75.968.3+7.6
3 Bradley31201165%77.573.1+4.4
4 Murray State31201165%83.579.5+3.9
5 Northern Iowa31191261%69.361.1+8.2
6 Illinois (Chi.)31171455%75.369.8+5.5
7 Valparaiso31171455%71.971.2+0.7
8 Southern Illinois32161650%73.069.6+3.4
9 Drake32131941%75.074.8+0.2
10 Indiana State31112035%73.974.8-0.9
11 Evansville3172423%67.276.7-9.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Valparaiso02803563
Indiana State03702562
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