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Varese vs Venezia Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 22 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 18:00
Projected 88-88
Projected total 176.2
Scheduled
Position#6
Record5-3
FormWWLLW
Points / game89.1
Allowed / game87.1
Vs
48%
52%
■ VAR 48%■ VEN 52%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
6.4/10
Above normal
4.4/10
Below normal
Position#9
Record4-3
FormLLWWL
Points / game87.9
Allowed / game88.6
ItalyLega ARound 9· Palasport Lino Oldrini
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · Varese v Venezia
22 Nov 2026
VAR v VEN
upcoming
18 Jan 2026
VAR94
VEN106
01 Dec 2024
VAR77
VEN86
14 Jan 2024
VAR92
VEN103
19 Nov 2022
VAR93
VEN90
15 Jan 2022
VAR76
VEN68
14 Apr 2021
VAR75
VEN77
17 Nov 2019
VAR93
VEN91
31 Mar 2019
VAR87
VEN79
01 Oct 2017
VAR62
VEN80
27 Dec 2016
VAR60
VEN73
10 Apr 2016
VAR79
VEN68
15 Feb 2015
VAR53
VEN67
27 Oct 2013
VAR84
VEN72
18 May 2013
VAR84
VEN75
12 May 2013
VAR81
VEN72
10 May 2013
VAR92
VEN74
13 Jan 2013
VAR85
VEN87
26 Nov 2011
VAR73
VEN67
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Varese host Venezia in the Lega Basket Serie A. Pythia makes Venezia the favourite at 52% and projects 88-88, about 176 points in all. Overtime chance: 5%. Varese are 5-3 this season (89.1 scored, 87.1 allowed a game), form WWLLW; Venezia are 4-3 this season (87.9 scored, 88.6 allowed a game), form LLWWL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Varese win
47.7%fair 2.10
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Venezia win
52.3%fair 1.91
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 21:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Murcia
#4
L
58-85
58
85
-27
44avg 77
A07/10
Champions League
Trieste
#7
W
85-84
85
84
+1
82avg 77
H10/10
Lega A
Peristeri
#3
L
82-85
82
85
-3
80avg 77
H13/10
Champions League
Trento
#11
L
85-87
85
87
-2
72avg 77
A18/10
Lega A
BC Roma
#13
W
110-103 OT
110
103
+7
106avg 77
H24/10
Lega A
Bamberg
#53
W
95-61
95
61
+34
92avg 77
A27/10
Champions League
Verona
#10
W
99-88
99
88
+11
90avg 77
A31/10
Lega A
Udine
#8
L
81-84
81
84
-3
no box
H08/11
Lega A
Peristeri
#3
L
96-101
96
101
-5
no box
A11/11
Champions League
Reggiana
#14
W
99-84
99
84
+15
no box
A14/11
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
8-16
14-23
20-27
16-19
19-15
21-23
21-20
24-26
27-26
25-11
12-27
18-21
17-23
24-26
21-23
23-15
32-28
17-17
17-22
29-28
22-10
24-16
29-17
20-18
25-23
25-21
23-27
26-17
26-14
23-26
14-27
18-17
20-28
27-30
17-21
32-22
34-18
21-22
25-18
19-26
175.2Avg total
89.0Scored
86.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)89.187.1176.2+2.062%
Season at home (4)86.290.2176.5-4.050%
Season away (4)92.084.0176.0+8.075%
Last 10 (10)89.086.2175.2+2.850%
Last 5 (5)94.083.6177.6+10.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)83.590.2173.7-6.636%
vs Similar ◀ (14)87.486.9174.2+0.557%
vs Weaker (5)92.679.4172.0+13.280%
This opponent (Venezia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VeneziaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVenezia
Date
Competition
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
86-93
86
93
-7
76avg 80
H11/10
Lega A
Turk Telekom
#16
W
75-65
75
65
+10
66avg 80
H14/10
Eurocup
BC Roma
#13
W
104-98
104
98
+6
98avg 80
A17/10
Lega A
Maxima Roma
#11
L
79-90
79
90
-11
72avg 80
A21/10
Eurocup
Treviso
#3
L
89-97 OT
89
97
-8
77avg 80
H25/10
Lega A
Tenerife
#5
L
80-82
80
82
-2
75avg 80
A28/10
Eurocup
Basket Napoli
#2
L
81-99
81
99
-18
68avg 80
A01/11
Lega A
Siauliai
#19
W
98-77
98
77
+21
no box
H04/11
Eurocup
Reggiana
#14
W
83-78
83
78
+5
no box
A07/11
Lega A
London Lions
#9
L
76-80
76
80
-4
no box
A10/11
Eurocup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-20
22-25
21-24
14-24
20-16
19-13
18-22
18-14
24-29
22-26
24-13
34-30
18-23
27-22
12-19
22-26
21-31
22-13
17-21
20-15
25-24
16-24
25-17
14-17
16-19
22-25
20-30
23-25
25-21
27-18
22-20
24-18
18-26
21-20
20-18
24-14
19-19
16-19
20-21
21-21
171.0Avg total
85.1Scored
85.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)87.988.6176.4-0.757%
Season at home (3)86.787.7174.3-1.033%
Season away (4)88.889.2178.0-0.575%
Last 10 (10)85.185.9171.0-0.840%
Last 5 (5)83.683.2166.8+0.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)85.290.0175.2-4.838%
vs Similar ◀ (11)83.084.7167.7-1.745%
vs Weaker (6)94.278.8173.0+15.383%
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%9%12%1%1351%1403%1454%1506%1558%16010%16512%17012%17511%1809%1857%1906%1954%2002%2051%2101%2150%2200%225
1%1353%1456%15510%16512%1759%1856%1952%2051%2150%225
Pythia expects about 176 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 175-179 (12%).
Over/Under 168
Over 168
68.4%
Under 168
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 173
Over 173
56.8%
Under 173
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 178
Over 178
44.7%
Under 178
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Varese total 84.5
Over 84.5
61.7%
Under 84.5
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Varese total 88.5
Over 88.5
47.0%
Under 88.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Varese total 92.5
Over 92.5
32.8%
Under 92.5
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Venezia total 80.5
Over 80.5
77.7%
Under 80.5
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Venezia total 84.5
Over 84.5
64.6%
Under 84.5
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Venezia total 88.5
Over 88.5
49.4%
Under 88.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%5%7%10%0%-331%-301%-272%-243%-214%-185%-157%-129%-910%-69%-36%+09%+39%+67%+96%+124%+153%+182%+211%+241%+271%+30
1%-302%-244%-187%-1210%-66%+09%+66%+123%+181%+241%+30
Margin from Varese's side (positive = Varese win). Pythia's expected margin is -0.7; Varese win by 1+ in 42% of simulations.
Spread Varese -3
VAR -3
38.8%
VEN +3
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
VAR
No market prices yet.
VEN
No market prices yet.
Spread Varese 0
VAR 0
47.7%
VEN 0
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
VAR
No market prices yet.
VEN
No market prices yet.
Spread Varese +3
VAR +3
56.6%
VEN -3
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
VAR
No market prices yet.
VEN
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.9+2.9Q1: -1.3-1.3Q2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q2: +0.9+0.9Q3Q3: -3.0-3.0Q3: -0.6-0.6Q4Q4: +1.6+1.6Q4: +1.0+1.0
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.9+2.9Q1: -1.3-1.3Q2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q2: +0.9+0.9Q3Q3: -3.0-3.0Q3: -0.6-0.6Q4Q4: +1.6+1.6Q4: +1.0+1.0
VareseVenezia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Murcia
#4
L
22-39
22
39
-17
A07/10
Champions League
Trieste
#7
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H10/10
Lega A
Peristeri
#3
W
52-37
52
37
+15
H13/10
Champions League
Trento
#11
L
41-49
41
49
-8
A18/10
Lega A
BC Roma
#13
W
49-45
49
45
+4
H24/10
Lega A
Bamberg
#53
W
46-26
46
26
+20
A27/10
Champions League
Verona
#10
W
50-44
50
44
+6
A31/10
Lega A
Udine
#8
W
49-40
49
40
+9
H08/11
Lega A
Peristeri
#3
L
47-58
47
58
-11
A11/11
Champions League
Reggiana
#14
W
55-40
55
40
+15
A14/11
Lega A
86.7Avg total
45.1Scored
41.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.442.885.1-0.450%-
Last 30 at home (14)44.442.286.6+2.157%-
Last 30 away (16)40.643.283.9-2.644%-
Last 10 (10)45.141.686.7+3.570%-
Last 5 (5)49.441.691.0+7.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)41.546.087.5-4.527%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)41.641.483.1+0.257%-
vs Weaker (5)46.439.485.8+7.080%-
This opponent (Venezia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VeneziaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virtus Bologna
#1
W
51-45
51
45
+6
H11/10
Lega A
Turk Telekom
#16
W
39-29
39
29
+10
H14/10
Eurocup
BC Roma
#13
L
46-55
46
55
-9
A17/10
Lega A
Maxima Roma
#11
D
45-45
45
45
+0
A21/10
Eurocup
Treviso
#3
L
43-44
43
44
-1
H25/10
Lega A
Tenerife
#5
L
41-48
41
48
-7
A28/10
Eurocup
Basket Napoli
#2
L
38-44
38
44
-6
A01/11
Lega A
Siauliai
#19
W
52-39
52
39
+13
H04/11
Eurocup
Reggiana
#14
L
39-46
39
46
-7
A07/11
Lega A
London Lions
#9
L
35-38
35
38
-3
A10/11
Eurocup
86.2Avg total
42.9Scored
43.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.444.586.9-2.130%-
Last 30 at home (15)43.841.385.1+2.547%-
Last 30 away (15)41.147.788.8-6.713%-
Last 10 (10)42.943.386.2-0.430%-
Last 5 (5)41.043.084.0-2.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)41.449.090.4-7.68%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)40.642.983.5-2.318%-
vs Weaker (6)48.037.785.7+10.3100%-
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 84.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.0 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.1 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.518.0
50.7%
54.3%36.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.910.5
36.3%
34.3%31.5
🏀 Free throws24.717.1
69.2%
74.6%17.1
They take 64.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Veneziatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Venezia: 87.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.6 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.1 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.0 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.521.3
53.9%
54.3%42.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.49.7
35.4%
34.3%29.1
🏀 Free throws20.116.0
79.6%
74.6%16.0
They take 66.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 22 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Varese
WLLWWWLLWL
Venezia
LWWLLLLWWL
#6
League position
#9
-1.2
Net rating
+0.1
91.5
Offensive rating
100.0
92.7
Defensive rating
99.9
52.4%
Effective FG%
53.6%
52.3%
Opp. effective FG%
54.0%
18.5%
Turnover %
14.0%
0.38
Free-throw rate
0.30
36.3%
3-point %
35.4%
66.7%
Assist %
54.5%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence91.5 · 100.0Defence92.7 · 99.9Shooting52.4% · 53.6%3-point %36.3% · 35.4%Ball care18.5% · 14.0%Free throws0.38 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)50% · 40%
■ Varese   ■ Venezia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Varese wins
7
Venezia wins
DateGameScore
18/01/26Varese v Venezia94-106
02/11/25Venezia v Varese86-75
11/05/25Venezia v Varese83-64
01/12/24Varese v Venezia77-86
14/01/24Varese v Venezia92-103
29/10/23Venezia v Varese102-88
23/04/23Venezia v Varese92-81
19/11/22Varese v Venezia93-90
13/02/22Venezia v Varese82-93
15/01/22Varese v Venezia76-68
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AReggiana99-84
11/11/26APeristeri96-101
08/11/26HUdine81-84
31/10/26AVerona99-88
27/10/26ABamberg95-61
24/10/26HBC Roma110-103 OT
18/10/26ATrento85-87
13/10/26HPeristeri82-85
10/10/26HTrieste85-84
07/10/26AMurcia58-85
Venezialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/11/26ALondon Lions76-80
07/11/26AReggiana83-78
04/11/26HSiauliai98-77
01/11/26ABasket Napoli81-99
28/10/26ATenerife80-82
25/10/26HTreviso89-97 OT
21/10/26AMaxima Roma79-90
17/10/26ABC Roma104-98
14/10/26HTurk Telekom75-65
11/10/26HVirtus Bologna86-93

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Varese
Lega A 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW62%
HomeLWWL50%
AwayWLWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %62%50%75%
Points / game89.186.292.0
Allowed / game87.190.284.0
Point differential+2.0-4.0+8.0
Avg total176.2176.5176.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)50% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %12%25%0%
Venezia
Lega A 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW57%
HomeWLL33%
AwayWWLW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %57%33%75%
Points / game87.986.788.8
Allowed / game88.687.789.2
Point differential-0.7-1.0-0.5
Avg total176.4174.3178.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)-100% (2)
Overtime %14%33%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Virtus Bologna76186%96.486.0+10.4
2 Basket Napoli76186%93.786.6+7.1
3 Treviso86275%90.887.6+3.1
4 Olimpia Milano75271%90.982.7+8.1
5 Maxima Roma75271%88.183.7+4.4
6 Varese85362%89.187.1+2.0
7 Trieste74357%94.488.4+6.0
8 Udine74357%81.380.3+1.0
9 Venezia74357%87.988.6-0.7
10 Verona84450%88.590.8-2.2
11 Trento73443%80.483.6-3.1
12 Tortona72529%83.791.0-7.3
13 BC Roma82625%98.698.0+0.6
14 Reggiana82625%82.085.6-3.6
15 Scafati81712%81.591.9-10.4
16 Cantu7070%76.990.9-14.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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