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Virginia vs Louisville Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 04 Jan 2025
Tip-off: 21:00
Final 50-70
27-32 23-38
Position#230
Record8-5
FormLWLWW
Points / game62.2
Allowed / game60.8
vs
Position#26
Record9-5
FormWLWWW
Points / game78.4
Allowed / game71.6
USANCAA
Other2024-25
Meetings · Virginia v Louisville
04 Jan 2025
VIRG50
LOUI70
03 Jan 2024
VIRG77
LOUI53
04 Mar 2023
VIRG75
LOUI60
09 Mar 2022
VIRG51
LOUI50
24 Jan 2022
VIRG64
LOUI52
06 Feb 2021
VIRG v LOUI
upcoming
07 Mar 2020
VIRG57
LOUI54
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Virginia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Louisville winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VirginiaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tennessee
#23
L
42-64
42
64
-22
A22/11
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#10
L
55-80
55
80
-25
H23/11
NCAA
Manhattan
#150
W
74-65
74
65
+9
H27/11
NCAA
Holy Cross
#284
W
67-41
67
41
+26
H29/11
NCAA
Florida
#6
L
69-87
69
87
-18
A05/12
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#58
L
51-63
51
63
-12
A07/12
NCAA
Bethune-Cookman
#202
W
59-41
59
41
+18
H13/12
NCAA
Memphis
#15
L
62-64
62
64
-2
H19/12
NCAA
American University
#102
W
63-58
63
58
+5
H22/12
NCAA
NC State
#293
W
70-67
70
67
+3
H31/12
NCAA
1H
2H
21-22
21-42
26-39
29-41
38-31
36-34
34-21
33-20
35-39
34-48
28-30
23-33
18-21
41-20
30-21
32-43
32-28
31-30
29-39
41-28
124.2Avg total
61.2Scored
63.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)62.260.8123.1+1.462%
Season at home (9)64.157.4121.6+6.778%
Season away (4)58.068.5126.5-10.525%
Last 10 (10)61.263.0124.2-1.850%
Last 5 (5)61.058.6119.6+2.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)55.065.8120.8-10.825%
vs Similar (13)64.860.0124.8+4.885%
vs Weaker (5)68.654.6123.2+14.0100%
This opponent (Louisville) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LouisvilleUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana
#132
W
89-61
89
61
+28
A27/11
NCAA
West Virginia
#131
W
79-70 OT
79
70
+9
A28/11
NCAA
Oklahoma
#136
L
64-69
64
69
-5
H29/11
NCAA
Ole Miss
#73
L
63-86
63
86
-23
H04/12
NCAA
Duke
#7
L
65-76
65
76
-11
H08/12
NCAA
UTEP
#163
W
77-74
77
74
+3
H12/12
NCAA
Kentucky
#71
L
85-93
85
93
-8
A14/12
NCAA
Florida State
#177
W
90-76
90
76
+14
A21/12
NCAA
Eastern Kentucky
#155
W
78-76
78
76
+2
H28/12
NCAA
North Carolina
#111
W
83-70
83
70
+13
H01/01
NCAA
1H
2H
37-29
52-32
24-28
38-34
32-39
32-30
31-40
32-46
37-33
28-43
32-36
45-38
40-46
45-47
36-34
54-42
46-37
32-39
37-31
46-39
152.4Avg total
77.3Scored
75.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)78.471.6149.9+6.864%
Season at home (10)75.470.2145.6+5.260%
Season away (4)85.875.0160.8+10.875%
Last 10 (10)77.375.1152.4+2.260%
Last 5 (5)82.677.8160.4+4.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)70.682.8153.4-12.27%
vs Similar (7)70.175.1145.3-5.043%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)83.867.4151.1+16.488%
This opponent (Virginia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: +0.0+0.01st half: -0.1-0.12nd half2nd half: -1.8-1.82nd half: +1.4+1.4
-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: +0.0+0.01st half: -0.1-0.12nd half2nd half: -1.8-1.82nd half: +1.4+1.4
VirginiaLouisville
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
VirginiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tennessee
#23
L
21-22
21
22
-1
A22/11
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#10
L
26-39
26
39
-13
H23/11
NCAA
Manhattan
#150
W
38-31
38
31
+7
H27/11
NCAA
Holy Cross
#284
W
34-21
34
21
+13
H29/11
NCAA
Florida
#6
L
35-39
35
39
-4
A05/12
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#58
L
28-30
28
30
-2
A07/12
NCAA
Bethune-Cookman
#202
L
18-21
18
21
-3
H13/12
NCAA
Memphis
#15
W
30-21
30
21
+9
H19/12
NCAA
American University
#102
W
32-28
32
28
+4
H22/12
NCAA
NC State
#293
L
29-39
29
39
-10
H31/12
NCAA
58.2Avg total
29.1Scored
29.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)28.827.055.8+1.853%-
Last 30 at home (19)28.726.154.8+2.753%-
Last 30 away (11)28.928.557.5+0.455%-
Last 10 (10)29.129.158.2+0.040%-
Last 5 (5)27.427.855.2-0.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)25.529.454.9-3.925%-
vs Similar (13)28.927.055.9+1.962%-
vs Weaker (5)36.421.057.4+15.4100%-
This opponent (Louisville) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LouisvilleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana
#132
W
37-29
37
29
+8
A27/11
NCAA
West Virginia
#131
L
24-28
24
28
-4
A28/11
NCAA
Oklahoma
#136
L
32-39
32
39
-7
H29/11
NCAA
Ole Miss
#73
L
31-40
31
40
-9
H04/12
NCAA
Duke
#7
W
37-33
37
33
+4
H08/12
NCAA
UTEP
#163
L
32-36
32
36
-4
H12/12
NCAA
Kentucky
#71
L
40-46
40
46
-6
A14/12
NCAA
Florida State
#177
W
36-34
36
34
+2
A21/12
NCAA
Eastern Kentucky
#155
W
46-37
46
37
+9
H28/12
NCAA
North Carolina
#111
W
37-31
37
31
+6
H01/01
NCAA
70.5Avg total
35.2Scored
35.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.836.970.7-3.237%-
Last 30 at home (18)33.635.468.9-1.839%-
Last 30 away (12)34.139.273.3-5.233%-
Last 10 (10)35.235.370.5-0.150%-
Last 5 (5)38.236.875.0+1.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)32.941.174.0-8.327%-
vs Similar (7)32.035.367.3-3.329%-
vs Weaker ◀ (8)37.030.567.5+6.562%-
This opponent (Virginia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
9
Virginia wins
1
Louisville wins
DateGameScore
27/01/24Louisville v Virginia52-69
04/01/24Virginia v Louisville77-53
04/03/23Virginia v Louisville75-60
16/02/23Louisville v Virginia58-61
10/03/22Virginia v Louisville51-50
05/03/22Louisville v Virginia61-71
25/01/22Virginia v Louisville64-52
06/03/21Louisville v Virginia58-68
07/03/20Virginia v Louisville57-54
08/02/20Louisville v Virginia80-73
Virginialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/12/24HNC State70-67
22/12/24HAmerican University63-58
19/12/24HMemphis62-64
13/12/24HBethune-Cookman59-41
07/12/24ASMU Mustangs51-63
05/12/24AFlorida69-87
29/11/24HHoly Cross67-41
27/11/24HManhattan74-65
23/11/24HSt. John's (N.Y.)55-80
22/11/24ATennessee42-64
Louisvillelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/01/25HNorth Carolina83-70
28/12/24HEastern Kentucky78-76
21/12/24AFlorida State90-76
14/12/24AKentucky85-93
12/12/24HUTEP77-74
08/12/24HDuke65-76
04/12/24HOle Miss63-86
29/11/24HOklahoma64-69
28/11/24AWest Virginia79-70 OT
27/11/24AIndiana89-61

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Virginia
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW62%
HomeWWLWW78%
AwayWLLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1394
Win %62%78%25%
Points / game62.264.158.0
Allowed / game60.857.468.5
Point differential+1.4+6.7-10.5
Avg total123.1121.6126.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%33%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)67% (3)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Louisville
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW64%
HomeLLWWW60%
AwayWWLW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games14104
Win %64%60%75%
Points / game78.475.485.8
Allowed / game71.670.275.0
Point differential+6.8+5.2+10.8
Avg total149.9145.6160.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%40%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)67% (3)-
Overtime %7%0%25%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke1412286%80.359.2+21.1
2 Pittsburgh1311285%84.268.4+15.8
3 SMU Mustangs1411379%85.472.1+13.3
4 Clemson1411379%78.466.8+11.6
5 Wake Forest1511473%69.164.9+4.1
6 Florida State139469%78.269.2+9.1
7 Stanford139469%77.571.1+6.5
8 Louisville149564%78.471.6+6.8
9 Virginia138562%62.260.8+1.4
10 North Carolina159660%84.679.2+5.4
11 Boston College159660%71.372.3-1.1
12 NC State148657%72.866.9+5.9
13 California137654%78.576.6+1.9
14 Georgia Tech158753%77.372.6+4.7
15 Notre Dame147750%75.670.9+4.7
16 Syracuse136746%76.878.9-2.1
17 Virginia Tech146843%71.173.5-2.4
18 Miami (FL)1441029%78.475.1+3.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Virginia272350
Louisville323870
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