PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Illawarra Hawks vs Adelaide Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 02 Oct 2026
Tip-off: 09:30
Final 114-92
35-21 30-14 27-32 22-25
Position#9
Record0-3
FormWWLLL
Points / game92.0
Allowed / game106.3
vs
Position#5
Record2-1
FormWLWLW
Points / game92.3
Allowed / game87.3
AustraliaNBLRound 3· WIN Entertainment Centre
Other2026-27
Meetings · Illawarra Hawks v Adelaide
19 Nov 2026
ILLA v ADEL
upcoming
02 Oct 2026
ILLA114
ADEL92
05 Feb 2026
ILLA100
ADEL99
20 Dec 2025
ILLA78
ADEL84
05 Oct 2024
ILLA100
ADEL102
20 Jan 2024
ILLA89
ADEL96
31 Dec 2023
ILLA91
ADEL84
03 Nov 2022
ILLA80
ADEL96
25 Feb 2022
ILLA87
ADEL71
24 Jan 2022
ILLA100
ADEL89
30 May 2021
ILLA97
ADEL83
11 May 2021
ILLA71
ADEL66
04 Mar 2021
ILLA98
ADEL89
21 Oct 2019
ILLA92
ADEL98
10 Jan 2019
ILLA96
ADEL102
25 Nov 2018
ILLA120
ADEL109
11 Feb 2018
ILLA87
ADEL111
21 Jan 2018
ILLA93
ADEL112
19 Feb 2017
ILLA100
ADEL94
28 Jan 2017
ILLA95
ADEL92
07 Oct 2016
ILLA122
ADEL88
12 Feb 2016
ILLA106
ADEL95
28 Jan 2016
ILLA104
ADEL97
22 Feb 2015
ILLA85
ADEL105
23 Jan 2015
ILLA85
ADEL89
28 Feb 2014
ILLA91
ADEL89
09 Feb 2014
ILLA102
ADEL80
23 Mar 2013
ILLA74
ADEL64
22 Feb 2013
ILLA90
ADEL91
25 Mar 2012
ILLA92
ADEL78
16 Oct 2011
ILLA97
ADEL89
12 Mar 2011
ILLA87
ADEL60
10 Dec 2010
ILLA81
ADEL79
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Illawarra Hawks winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Adelaide winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Illawarra HawksAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHawks
Date
Competition
Sydney
#1
L
104-122
104
122
-18
94avg 87
A29/01
NBL
Perth
#5
L
99-106
99
106
-7
89avg 87
H31/01
NBL
Adelaide
#3
W
100-99
100
99
+1
94avg 87
H05/02
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
L
95-106
95
106
-11
93avg 87
A07/02
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
94-120
94
120
-26
83avg 87
H13/02
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
W
100-91
100
91
+9
98avg 87
A15/02
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
103-70
103
70
+33
101avg 87
A18/02
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
L
81-95
81
95
-14
71avg 87
A20/09
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
L
95-103
95
103
-8
82avg 87
A25/09
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
100-121
100
121
-21
87avg 87
A27/09
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-28
23-35
29-28
30-31
30-25
24-23
20-32
25-26
27-21
18-30
24-27
31-21
25-33
25-28
30-23
15-22
19-34
27-24
23-26
25-36
29-24
25-21
23-18
23-28
26-18
28-16
27-17
22-19
24-28
23-26
14-22
20-19
18-25
24-25
24-23
29-30
27-31
18-34
26-33
29-23
200.4Avg total
97.1Scored
103.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)92.0106.3198.3-14.30%
Season at homeno games
Season away (3)92.0106.3198.3-14.30%
Last 10 (10)97.1103.3200.4-6.230%
Last 5 (5)95.896.0191.8-0.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)93.4102.8196.2-9.422%
vs Similar (7)91.794.7186.4-3.043%
vs Weaker (5)98.484.2182.6+14.280%
This opponent (Adelaide) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AdelaideAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAdelaide
Date
Competition
South East Melbourne
#2
L
92-101
92
101
-9
93avg 88
A14/03
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
108-96
108
96
+12
115avg 88
H17/03
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
68-112
68
112
-44
46avg 88
A21/03
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
91-89
91
89
+2
83avg 88
H27/03
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
93-106
93
106
-13
92avg 88
A29/03
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
92-91
92
91
+1
88avg 88
H01/04
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
101-113 OT
101
113
-12
94avg 88
A05/04
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
W
97-95
97
95
+2
93avg 88
A19/09
NBL
Perth
#6
L
97-98
97
98
-1
90avg 88
A24/09
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#3
W
83-69
83
69
+14
74avg 88
H27/09
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-19
27-25
20-39
15-18
28-17
31-28
24-19
25-32
23-31
16-28
17-31
12-22
25-30
28-22
15-25
23-12
31-24
22-28
17-21
23-33
22-24
24-29
26-21
20-17
31-29
24-27
21-13
19-26
25-23
24-25
26-22
22-25
20-30
28-18
29-22
20-28
32-17
20-17
15-17
16-18
189.2Avg total
92.2Scored
97.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)92.387.3179.7+5.067%
Season at home (1)83.069.0152.0+14.0100%
Season away (2)97.096.5193.5+0.550%
Last 10 (10)92.297.0189.2-4.850%
Last 5 (5)94.093.2187.2+0.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)92.299.1191.3-6.943%
vs Similar (10)94.593.3187.8+1.260%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)93.880.0173.8+13.883%
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -2.0-2.0Q1: +2.3+2.3Q2Q2: -2.7-2.7Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: -0.9-0.9Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: -0.6-0.6Q4: -3.6-3.6
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -2.0-2.0Q1: +2.3+2.3Q2Q2: -2.7-2.7Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: -0.9-0.9Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: -0.6-0.6Q4: -3.6-3.6
Illawarra HawksAdelaide
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Illawarra HawksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sydney
#1
L
45-63
45
63
-18
A29/01
NBL
Perth
#5
W
54-48
54
48
+6
H31/01
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
45-51
45
51
-6
H05/02
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
L
50-61
50
61
-11
A07/02
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
46-58
46
58
-12
H13/02
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
W
54-45
54
45
+9
A15/02
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
54-34
54
34
+20
A18/02
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
L
47-54
47
54
-7
A20/09
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
L
42-50
42
50
-8
A25/09
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
45-65
45
65
-20
A27/09
NBL
101.1Avg total
48.2Scored
52.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.649.095.6-2.533%-
Last 30 at home (14)45.348.593.8-3.229%-
Last 30 away (16)47.749.597.2-1.838%-
Last 10 (10)48.252.9101.1-4.730%-
Last 5 (5)48.449.698.0-1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)46.150.696.7-4.628%-
vs Similar (7)47.647.695.1+0.043%-
vs Weaker (5)47.045.492.4+1.640%-
This opponent (Adelaide) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AdelaideLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South East Melbourne
#2
W
57-44
57
44
+13
A14/03
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
59-45
59
45
+14
H17/03
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
39-59
39
59
-20
A21/03
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
53-52
53
52
+1
H27/03
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
53-52
53
52
+1
A29/03
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
46-53
46
53
-7
H01/04
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
55-56
55
56
-1
A05/04
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
W
49-48
49
48
+1
A19/09
NBL
Perth
#6
D
48-48
48
48
+0
A24/09
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#3
W
52-34
52
34
+18
H27/09
NBL
100.2Avg total
51.1Scored
49.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.747.293.9-0.553%-
Last 30 at home (14)46.646.493.1+0.250%-
Last 30 away (16)46.847.894.6-1.156%-
Last 10 (10)51.149.1100.2+2.060%-
Last 5 (5)50.047.897.8+2.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)48.650.198.7-1.450%-
vs Similar (10)43.646.389.9-2.740%-
vs Weaker ◀ (6)47.341.889.2+5.583%-
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Illawarra Hawkstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Illawarra Hawks: 97.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.4 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.8 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.9 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.6 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.125.2
54.7%
56.4%50.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.310.6
35.0%
34.2%31.8
🏀 Free throws20.314.9
73.4%
74.0%14.9
They take 76.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Adelaidetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide: 91.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.0 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.0 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.6 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.620.6
53.4%
56.4%41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.811.0
35.7%
34.2%33.0
🏀 Free throws21.517.0
79.1%
74.0%17.0
They take 69.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 02 Oct 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Illawarra Hawks
LLLWWLLWLL
Adelaide
WLWLWLWLWL
#9
League position
#5
-6.4
Net rating
-5.4
99.8
Offensive rating
100.0
106.2
Defensive rating
105.4
53.8%
Effective FG%
53.5%
55.2%
Opp. effective FG%
56.7%
13.0%
Turnover %
13.5%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.31
35.0%
3-point %
35.7%
57.3%
Assist %
70.3%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence99.8 · 100.0Defence106.2 · 105.4Shooting53.8% · 53.5%3-point %35.0% · 35.7%Ball care13.0% · 13.5%Free throws0.27 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)30% · 50%
■ Illawarra Hawks   ■ Adelaide
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Illawarra Hawks wins
8
Adelaide wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/09/26ASydney100-121
25/09/26ABrisbane Bullets95-103
20/09/26ANew Zealand Breakers81-95
18/02/26ATasmania JackJumpers103-70
15/02/26AMelbourne United100-91
13/02/26HSydney94-120
07/02/26ANew Zealand Breakers95-106
05/02/26HAdelaide100-99
31/01/26HPerth99-106
29/01/26ASydney104-122
Adelaidelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/09/26HCairns Taipans83-69
24/09/26APerth97-98
19/09/26AMelbourne United97-95
05/04/26ASydney101-113 OT
01/04/26HSydney92-91
29/03/26ASydney93-106
27/03/26HSydney91-89
21/03/26ASydney68-112
17/03/26HSouth East Melbourne108-96
14/03/26ASouth East Melbourne92-101

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Illawarra Hawks
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLL0%
Home--
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games3-3
Win %0%-0%
Points / game92.0-92.0
Allowed / game106.3-106.3
Point differential-14.3--14.3
Avg total198.3-198.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%-0%
Adelaide
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLW67%
HomeW100%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %67%100%50%
Points / game92.383.097.0
Allowed / game87.369.096.5
Point differential+5.0+14.0+0.5
Avg total179.7152.0193.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Sydney330100%108.389.3+19.0
2 Adelaide32167%92.387.3+5.0
3 Tasmania JackJumpers32167%89.088.7+0.3
4 Brisbane Bullets32167%89.791.0-1.3
5 Perth32167%91.396.7-5.3
6 New Zealand Breakers42250%92.885.2+7.5
7 Melbourne United31233%87.780.7+7.0
8 South East Melbourne31233%84.087.0-3.0
9 Cairns Taipans41325%81.894.8-13.0
10 Illawarra Hawks3030%92.0106.3-14.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Illawarra Hawks35302722114
Adelaide2114322592
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.