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Adelaide vs Sydney Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 27 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 08:30
Final 91-89
25-30 28-22 15-25 23-12
Position#3
Record25-13
FormLWLWL
Points / game92.7
Allowed / game89.7
vs
Position#1
Record27-9
FormWWWWW
Points / game99.5
Allowed / game86.8
AustraliaNBLNBL - Final· Adelaide Entertainment Centre
Other2025-26
Meetings · Adelaide v Sydney
30 Jan 2027
ADEL v SYDN
upcoming
13 Dec 2026
ADEL v SYDN
upcoming
01 Apr 2026
ADEL92
SYDN91
27 Mar 2026
ADEL91
SYDN89
02 Jan 2026
ADEL85
SYDN79
11 Oct 2025
ADEL79
SYDN103
11 Oct 2024
ADEL89
SYDN79
22 Sep 2024
ADEL94
SYDN102
02 Feb 2024
ADEL85
SYDN78
11 Jan 2024
ADEL95
SYDN82
03 Feb 2023
ADEL115
SYDN108
09 Apr 2022
ADEL77
SYDN84
27 Feb 2022
ADEL90
SYDN93
06 Feb 2021
ADEL75
SYDN94
30 Jan 2021
ADEL85
SYDN80
02 Nov 2019
ADEL96
SYDN98
10 Nov 2018
ADEL81
SYDN93
19 Oct 2018
ADEL106
SYDN101
18 Nov 2017
ADEL108
SYDN93
21 Oct 2017
ADEL114
SYDN84
21 Jan 2017
ADEL87
SYDN73
16 Dec 2016
ADEL82
SYDN80
20 Jan 2016
ADEL96
SYDN89
07 Nov 2015
ADEL99
SYDN98
06 Feb 2015
ADEL97
SYDN78
30 Nov 2014
ADEL83
SYDN90
12 Jan 2014
ADEL89
SYDN102
03 Nov 2013
ADEL97
SYDN84
13 Jan 2013
ADEL82
SYDN64
02 Dec 2012
ADEL85
SYDN88
12 Nov 2011
ADEL104
SYDN113
21 Oct 2011
ADEL71
SYDN94
17 Dec 2010
ADEL81
SYDN77
06 Nov 2010
ADEL87
SYDN75
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Sydney winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AdelaideAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAdelaide
Date
Competition
South East Melbourne
#2
L
77-97
77
97
-20
68avg 88
H31/01
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
L
99-100
99
100
-1
99avg 88
A05/02
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
W
87-76
87
76
+11
87avg 88
A07/02
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
W
92-89
92
89
+3
87avg 88
H14/02
NBL
Perth
#5
L
74-86
74
86
-12
68avg 88
A20/02
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
L
107-111
107
111
-4
no box
H22/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
104-97
104
97
+7
100avg 88
H10/03
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
92-101
92
101
-9
93avg 88
A14/03
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
108-96
108
96
+12
115avg 88
H17/03
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
68-112
68
112
-44
46avg 88
A21/03
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-18
22-30
16-23
21-26
21-27
30-18
27-24
21-31
29-23
12-16
26-14
20-23
16-29
23-21
20-21
33-18
17-19
17-29
24-17
16-21
25-28
29-19
28-34
25-30
25-27
25-21
27-27
27-22
30-19
27-25
20-39
15-18
28-17
31-28
24-19
25-32
23-31
16-28
17-31
12-22
187.3Avg total
90.8Scored
96.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (38)92.789.7182.3+3.066%
Season at home (20)92.889.8182.6+3.170%
Season away (18)92.489.6182.0+2.961%
Last 10 (10)90.896.5187.3-5.740%
Last 5 (5)95.8103.4199.2-7.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)91.197.4188.5-6.340%
vs Similar (12)92.991.2184.1+1.867%
vs Weaker (8)96.582.8179.2+13.888%
This opponent (Sydney) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SydneyAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSydney
Date
Competition
Adelaide
#3
W
106-101
106
101
+5
102avg 93
H25/01
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
122-104
122
104
+18
124avg 93
H29/01
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
106-92
106
92
+14
92avg 93
A01/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
114-88
114
88
+26
114avg 93
A08/02
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
120-94
120
94
+26
123avg 93
A13/02
NBL
Perth
#5
W
102-84
102
84
+18
98avg 93
H15/02
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
117-77
117
77
+40
118avg 93
A20/02
NBL
Perth
#5
W
105-104
105
104
+1
95avg 93
H11/03
NBL
Perth
#5
W
89-75
89
75
+14
78avg 93
A14/03
NBL
Adelaide
#3
W
112-68
112
68
+44
121avg 93
H21/03
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-20
37-26
25-24
22-31
28-22
35-23
28-29
31-30
17-34
28-20
26-22
35-16
33-29
22-25
30-23
29-11
34-19
24-27
26-23
36-25
28-29
27-16
24-19
23-20
26-33
32-17
32-10
27-17
22-24
26-20
25-31
32-29
22-23
21-23
17-13
29-16
31-23
28-16
31-17
22-12
198.0Avg total
109.3Scored
88.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (36)99.586.8186.3+12.775%
Season at home (19)100.387.9188.2+12.479%
Season away (17)98.685.6184.2+12.971%
Last 10 (10)109.388.7198.0+20.6100%
Last 5 (5)105.081.6186.6+23.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)101.787.7189.4+14.080%
This opponent (Adelaide) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -0.6-0.6Q1: +0.7+0.7Q2Q2: -0.3-0.3Q2: +6.7+6.7Q3Q3: -2.0-2.0Q3: +5.3+5.3Q4Q4: -2.8-2.8Q4: +7.9+7.9
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -0.6-0.6Q1: +0.7+0.7Q2Q2: -0.3-0.3Q2: +6.7+6.7Q3Q3: -2.0-2.0Q3: +5.3+5.3Q4Q4: -2.8-2.8Q4: +7.9+7.9
AdelaideSydney
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AdelaideLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South East Melbourne
#2
L
40-48
40
48
-8
H31/01
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
51-45
51
45
+6
A05/02
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
W
41-39
41
39
+2
A07/02
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
L
39-50
39
50
-11
H14/02
NBL
Perth
#5
L
34-48
34
48
-14
A20/02
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
W
54-47
54
47
+7
H22/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
50-48
50
48
+2
H10/03
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
57-44
57
44
+13
A14/03
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
59-45
59
45
+14
H17/03
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
39-59
39
59
-20
A21/03
NBL
93.7Avg total
46.4Scored
47.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.645.991.4-0.353%-
Last 30 at home (15)46.145.891.9+0.353%-
Last 30 away (15)45.045.990.9-0.953%-
Last 10 (10)46.447.393.7-0.960%-
Last 5 (5)51.848.6100.4+3.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)46.248.394.5-2.140%-
vs Similar (12)44.045.389.3-1.350%-
vs Weaker (8)47.143.690.8+3.575%-
This opponent (Sydney) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SydneyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Adelaide
#3
W
59-46
59
46
+13
H25/01
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
63-45
63
45
+18
H29/01
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
L
45-54
45
54
-9
A01/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
55-54
55
54
+1
A08/02
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
58-46
58
46
+12
A13/02
NBL
Perth
#5
W
55-45
55
45
+10
H15/02
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
58-50
58
50
+8
A20/02
NBL
Perth
#5
W
48-44
48
44
+4
H11/03
NBL
Perth
#5
L
43-46
43
46
-3
A14/03
NBL
Adelaide
#3
W
59-39
59
39
+20
H21/03
NBL
101.2Avg total
54.3Scored
46.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)51.644.796.3+6.977%-
Last 30 at home (15)54.144.198.2+9.987%-
Last 30 away (15)49.245.394.5+3.967%-
Last 10 (10)54.346.9101.2+7.480%-
Last 5 (5)52.644.897.4+7.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)51.644.796.3+6.977%-
This opponent (Adelaide) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaidetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide: 89.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.4 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.5 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.122.7
59.6%
54.6%45.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.19.6
34.2%
33.3%28.8
🏀 Free throws19.115.5
81.2%
74.8%15.5
They take 66.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sydneytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sydney: 108.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.2 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.4 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.8 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.827.6
63.0%
54.6%55.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.111.8
39.2%
33.3%35.4
🏀 Free throws22.117.8
80.5%
74.8%17.8
They take 73.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 27 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide
LWLWLLWWLL
Sydney
WWWWWWWWWW
#3
League position
#1
-2.5
Net rating
+22.2
98.5
Offensive rating
115.2
101.0
Defensive rating
93.0
56.0%
Effective FG%
61.3%
51.8%
Opp. effective FG%
49.0%
15.8%
Turnover %
9.7%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.30
34.2%
3-point %
39.2%
66.3%
Assist %
60.7%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
100%

Profile

Offence98.5 · 115.2Defence101.0 · 93.0Shooting56.0% · 61.3%3-point %34.2% · 39.2%Ball care15.8% · 9.7%Free throws0.29 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)40% · 100%
■ Adelaide   ■ Sydney
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Adelaide wins
5
Sydney wins
DateGameScore
21/03/26Sydney v Adelaide112-68
25/01/26Sydney v Adelaide106-101
02/01/26Adelaide v Sydney85-79
17/12/25Sydney v Adelaide97-93 OT
11/10/25Adelaide v Sydney79-103
13/02/25Sydney v Adelaide88-95
24/01/25Sydney v Adelaide96-105
30/12/24Sydney v Adelaide96-111
11/10/24Adelaide v Sydney89-79
22/09/24Adelaide v Sydney94-102
Adelaidelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/03/26ASydney68-112
17/03/26HSouth East Melbourne108-96
14/03/26ASouth East Melbourne92-101
10/03/26HSouth East Melbourne104-97
22/02/26HNew Zealand Breakers107-111
20/02/26APerth74-86
14/02/26HNew Zealand Breakers92-89
07/02/26AMelbourne United87-76
05/02/26AIllawarra Hawks99-100
31/01/26HSouth East Melbourne77-97
Sydneylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/03/26HAdelaide112-68
14/03/26APerth89-75
11/03/26HPerth105-104
20/02/26ABrisbane Bullets117-77
15/02/26HPerth102-84
13/02/26AIllawarra Hawks120-94
08/02/26ASouth East Melbourne114-88
01/02/26ACairns Taipans106-92
29/01/26HIllawarra Hawks122-104
25/01/26HAdelaide106-101

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL66%
HomeLWLWW70%
AwayLWLLL61%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games382018
Win %66%70%61%
Points / game92.792.892.4
Allowed / game89.789.889.6
Point differential+3.0+3.1+2.9
Avg total182.3182.6182.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%30%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won58% (12)75% (4)50% (8)
Overtime %11%10%11%
Sydney
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW75%
HomeWWWWW79%
AwayWWWWW71%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games361917
Win %75%79%71%
Points / game99.5100.398.6
Allowed / game86.887.985.6
Point differential+12.7+12.4+12.9
Avg total186.3188.2184.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+56%53%59%
Close games (≤5 pts) won62% (8)67% (6)50% (2)
Overtime %6%5%6%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Sydney3627975%99.586.8+12.7
2 Adelaide38251366%92.789.7+3.0
3 South East Melbourne37241365%100.893.5+7.3
4 Melbourne United35211460%91.487.7+3.8
5 Perth37221559%90.987.1+3.8
6 Tasmania JackJumpers34142041%86.587.2-0.7
7 New Zealand Breakers34142041%92.193.1-0.9
8 Illawarra Hawks33132039%93.297.1-4.0
9 Cairns Taipans3392427%83.596.8-13.3
10 Brisbane Bullets3362718%82.196.8-14.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Adelaide2528152391
Sydney3022251289
← all games of the day
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