PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Adelaide vs New Zealand Breakers Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 14 Feb 2027
Tip-off: 04:00
Scheduled
Position#5
Record7-6
FormLWLWW
Points / game92.9
Allowed / game92.5
Adelaide
Australia
vs
Form · last 5 games
5.3/10
Around normal
5.2/10
Around normal
New Zealand Breakers
Australia
Position#8
Record5-9
FormLLLWL
Points / game90.6
Allowed / game91.4
AustraliaNBLRound 21· Adelaide Entertainment Centre
Other2026-27
Meetings · Adelaide v New Zealand Breakers
14 Feb 2027
ADEL v NEW
upcoming
04 Oct 2026
ADEL72
NEW 88
22 Feb 2026
ADEL107
NEW 111
14 Feb 2026
ADEL92
NEW 89
26 Jan 2025
ADEL94
NEW 78
14 Dec 2024
ADEL111
NEW 94
18 Feb 2024
ADEL76
NEW 70
08 Jan 2023
ADEL83
NEW 85
28 Oct 2022
ADEL70
NEW 99
12 Dec 2021
ADEL98
NEW 85
27 Feb 2021
ADEL62
NEW 106
27 Jan 2021
ADEL88
NEW 78
22 Jan 2021
ADEL94
NEW 91
29 Dec 2019
ADEL87
NEW 96
24 Nov 2019
ADEL117
NEW 100
04 Jan 2019
ADEL96
NEW 104
30 Dec 2018
ADEL109
NEW 98
29 Dec 2017
ADEL88
NEW 85
10 Dec 2017
ADEL95
NEW 92
04 Feb 2017
ADEL87
NEW 88
10 Dec 2016
ADEL102
NEW 92
03 Feb 2016
ADEL84
NEW 106
07 Oct 2015
ADEL90
NEW 71
28 Feb 2015
ADEL83
NEW 94
04 Jan 2015
ADEL74
NEW 81
02 Nov 2014
ADEL93
NEW 86
23 Feb 2014
ADEL96
NEW 92
04 Jan 2014
ADEL99
NEW 73
20 Jan 2013
ADEL66
NEW 84
28 Dec 2012
ADEL66
NEW 71
10 Mar 2012
ADEL76
NEW 91
11 Dec 2011
ADEL73
NEW 86
08 Jan 2011
ADEL85
NEW 90
12 Nov 2010
ADEL78
NEW 82
12 Dec 2009
ADEL85
NEW 92
03 Oct 2009
ADEL80
NEW 76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
New Zealand Breakers win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AdelaideAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAdelaide
Date
Competition
Illawarra Hawks
#9
L
92-114
92
114
-22
87avg 85
A02/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
L
72-88
72
88
-16
61avg 85
H04/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
L
91-96
91
96
-5
79avg 85
H07/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
84-78
84
78
+6
76avg 85
A11/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
W
94-88
94
88
+6
85avg 85
A16/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
L
94-108
94
108
-14
86avg 85
A24/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
W
108-101
108
101
+7
106avg 85
A30/10
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
L
89-96
89
96
-7
77avg 85
H01/11
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
W
106-78
106
78
+28
no box
H07/11
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
W
101-93
101
93
+8
no box
H12/11
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-35
14-30
32-27
25-22
19-23
23-25
15-12
15-28
21-31
17-25
21-20
32-20
18-18
23-26
20-12
23-22
14-22
26-17
31-23
23-26
25-42
18-30
29-14
22-22
28-24
28-20
18-28
34-29
17-30
26-20
23-26
23-20
22-21
27-16
36-23
21-18
27-10
32-25
21-27
21-31
187.1Avg total
93.1Scored
94.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)92.992.5185.4+0.554%
Season at home (6)90.386.7177.0+3.750%
Season away (7)95.197.4192.6-2.357%
Last 10 (10)93.194.0187.1-0.950%
Last 5 (5)99.695.2194.8+4.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)92.997.9190.7-5.050%
vs Similar ◀ (10)93.795.5189.2-1.850%
vs Weaker (6)96.088.5184.5+7.550%
This opponent (New Zealand Breakers) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
New Zealand BreakersAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBreakers
Date
Competition
Adelaide
#5
W
88-72
88
72
+16
84avg 86
A04/10
NBL
Perth
#6
L
84-100
84
100
-16
63avg 86
A10/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
102-101
102
101
+1
99avg 86
A14/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
L
92-98
92
98
-6
89avg 86
A18/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
L
84-86
84
86
-2
75avg 86
A25/10
NBL
Adelaide
#5
L
101-108
101
108
-7
92avg 86
H30/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
L
74-94
74
94
-20
no box
A02/11
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
L
77-79
77
79
-2
no box
A06/11
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
W
94-90 OT
94
90
+4
no box
H13/11
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
102-111 OT
102
111
-9
no box
A15/11
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-19
25-23
12-15
28-15
22-21
16-20
28-29
18-30
31-29
20-32
24-12
27-28
32-31
19-22
14-17
27-28
25-16
21-23
16-21
22-26
24-28
20-28
28-18
29-34
19-28
20-15
16-27
19-24
19-27
24-16
12-21
22-15
14-24
26-16
20-22
19-17
20-21
25-24
19-20
23-22
183.7Avg total
89.8Scored
93.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)90.691.4182.1-0.836%
Season at home (4)97.088.5185.5+8.575%
Season away (10)88.192.6180.7-4.520%
Last 10 (10)89.893.9183.7-4.130%
Last 5 (5)89.696.4186.0-6.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)89.6101.7191.3-12.120%
vs Similar ◀ (13)95.093.2188.2+1.846%
vs Weaker (7)96.189.6185.7+6.657%
This opponent (Adelaide) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -4.4-4.4Q1: -1.5-1.5Q2Q2: +0.0+0.0Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: +3.4+3.4Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: -0.5-0.5
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -4.4-4.4Q1: -1.5-1.5Q2Q2: +0.0+0.0Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: +3.4+3.4Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: -0.5-0.5
AdelaideNew Zealand Breakers
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AdelaideLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illawarra Hawks
#9
L
35-65
35
65
-30
A02/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
L
42-48
42
48
-6
H04/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
L
38-56
38
56
-18
H07/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A11/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
W
40-39
40
39
+1
A16/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
L
43-72
43
72
-29
A24/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
W
56-44
56
44
+12
A30/10
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
L
43-50
43
50
-7
H01/11
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
W
49-37
49
37
+12
H07/11
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
W
59-35
59
35
+24
H12/11
NBL
93.6Avg total
44.6Scored
49.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.148.595.6-1.453%-
Last 30 at home (13)48.046.494.4+1.654%-
Last 30 away (17)46.450.196.5-3.853%-
Last 10 (10)44.649.093.6-4.440%-
Last 5 (5)50.047.697.6+2.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)48.949.998.9-1.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)44.547.992.4-3.450%-
vs Weaker (6)47.046.293.2+0.867%-
This opponent (New Zealand Breakers) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
New Zealand BreakersLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Adelaide
#5
W
48-42
48
42
+6
A04/10
NBL
Perth
#6
L
38-41
38
41
-3
A10/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
51-61
51
61
-10
A14/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
L
51-53
51
53
-2
A18/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
W
46-39
46
39
+7
A25/10
NBL
Adelaide
#5
L
44-56
44
56
-12
H30/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
L
39-43
39
43
-4
A02/11
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
D
43-43
43
43
+0
A06/11
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
D
40-40
40
40
+0
H13/11
NBL
Sydney
#1
D
45-45
45
45
+0
A15/11
NBL
90.8Avg total
44.5Scored
46.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.447.493.8-1.043%-
Last 30 at home (11)46.647.193.7-0.545%-
Last 30 away (19)46.347.693.9-1.442%-
Last 10 (10)44.546.390.8-1.820%-
Last 5 (5)42.245.487.6-3.20%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)45.051.796.7-6.710%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)46.544.891.3+1.662%-
vs Weaker (7)48.346.194.4+2.157%-
This opponent (Adelaide) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaidetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide: 90.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.8 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.2 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.4 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.6 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.722.9
56.3%
56.4%45.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.09.4
30.3%
34.2%28.2
🏀 Free throws23.116.4
71.0%
74.0%16.4
They take 71.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
New Zealand Breakerstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

New Zealand Breakers: 90.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.1 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.9 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.6 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.221.3
55.8%
56.4%42.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.311.7
41.3%
34.2%35.1
🏀 Free throws18.812.9
68.6%
74.0%12.9
They take 66.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Feb 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide
WWLWLWWLLL
New Zealand Breakers
LWLLLLLWLW
#5
League position
#8
-3.3
Net rating
+3.3
99.1
Offensive rating
102.8
102.4
Defensive rating
99.5
51.6%
Effective FG%
58.4%
57.6%
Opp. effective FG%
53.3%
11.2%
Turnover %
14.1%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.28
30.3%
3-point %
41.3%
67.5%
Assist %
63.3%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence99.1 · 102.8Defence102.4 · 99.5Shooting51.6% · 58.4%3-point %30.3% · 41.3%Ball care11.2% · 14.1%Free throws0.32 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)50% · 30%
■ Adelaide   ■ New Zealand Breakers
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Adelaide wins
3
New Zealand Breakers wins
DateGameScore
30/10/26New Zealand Breakers v Adelaide101-108
04/10/26Adelaide v New Zealand Breakers72-88
22/02/26Adelaide v New Zealand Breakers107-111
14/02/26Adelaide v New Zealand Breakers92-89
23/01/26New Zealand Breakers v Adelaide110-112 OT
06/11/25New Zealand Breakers v Adelaide79-83
26/01/25Adelaide v New Zealand Breakers94-78
14/12/24Adelaide v New Zealand Breakers111-94
02/11/24New Zealand Breakers v Adelaide109-82
18/02/24Adelaide v New Zealand Breakers76-70
Adelaidelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HMelbourne United101-93
07/11/26HIllawarra Hawks106-78
01/11/26HBrisbane Bullets89-96
30/10/26ANew Zealand Breakers108-101
24/10/26ASouth East Melbourne94-108
16/10/26ATasmania JackJumpers94-88
11/10/26ASydney84-78
07/10/26HMelbourne United91-96
04/10/26HNew Zealand Breakers72-88
02/10/26AIllawarra Hawks92-114
New Zealand Breakerslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26ASydney102-111 OT
13/11/26HBrisbane Bullets94-90 OT
06/11/26ATasmania JackJumpers77-79
02/11/26AMelbourne United74-94
30/10/26HAdelaide101-108
25/10/26ACairns Taipans84-86
18/10/26ATasmania JackJumpers92-98
14/10/26ASydney102-101
10/10/26APerth84-100
04/10/26AAdelaide88-72

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW54%
HomeLLLWW50%
AwayLWWLW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1367
Win %54%50%57%
Points / game92.990.395.1
Allowed / game92.586.797.4
Point differential+0.5+3.7-2.3
Avg total185.4177.0192.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+15%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
New Zealand Breakers
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL36%
HomeWWLW75%
AwayLLLLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games14410
Win %36%75%20%
Points / game90.697.088.1
Allowed / game91.488.592.6
Point differential-0.8+8.5-4.5
Avg total182.1185.5180.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+21%50%10%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)100% (1)20% (5)
Overtime %14%25%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Sydney139469%98.689.7+8.9
2 Tasmania JackJumpers139469%94.790.4+4.3
3 Melbourne United148657%98.391.9+6.4
4 Cairns Taipans148657%92.495.9-3.6
5 Adelaide137654%92.992.5+0.5
6 Perth137654%95.797.8-2.1
7 Brisbane Bullets146843%94.499.2-4.9
8 New Zealand Breakers145936%90.691.4-0.8
9 Illawarra Hawks1551033%97.5104.7-7.3
10 South East Melbourne134931%97.998.1-0.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.