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Atlanta Hawks vs Milwaukee Bucks Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 122-99
31-30 29-22 35-26 27-21
Position#12
Record35-31
FormWWWWW
Points / game117.7
Allowed / game116.9
vs
Position#21
Record27-38
FormLWLLL
Points / game111.0
Allowed / game115.9
USANBA· State Farm Arena
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Atlanta Hawks v Milwaukee Bucks
31 Dec 2026
ATL v MIL
upcoming
14 Mar 2026
ATL122
MIL99
19 Jan 2026
ATL110
MIL112
04 Mar 2025
ATL121
MIL127
07 Feb 2025
ATL115
MIL110
30 Mar 2024
ATL113
MIL122
11 Jan 2023
ATL105
MIL114
07 Nov 2022
ATL117
MIL98
17 Jan 2022
ATL121
MIL114
14 Nov 2021
ATL120
MIL100
03 Jul 2021
ATL107
MIL118
29 Jun 2021
ATL110
MIL88
27 Jun 2021
ATL102
MIL113
25 Apr 2021
ATL111
MIL104
15 Apr 2021
ATL109
MIL120
27 Dec 2019
ATL86
MIL112
20 Nov 2019
ATL127
MIL135
31 Mar 2019
ATL136
MIL135
13 Jan 2019
ATL114
MIL133
29 Oct 2017
ATL106
MIL117
15 Jan 2017
ATL111
MIL98
16 Nov 2016
ATL107
MIL100
25 Mar 2016
ATL101
MIL90
20 Feb 2016
ATL109
MIL117
30 Mar 2015
ATL101
MIL88
26 Dec 2014
ATL77
MIL107
13 Mar 2014
ATL102
MIL97
12 Apr 2013
ATL109
MIL104
20 Mar 2013
ATL98
MIL90
02 Mar 2012
ATL99
MIL94
15 Mar 2011
ATL110
MIL85
10 Nov 2010
ATL91
MIL108
02 May 2010
ATL95
MIL74
28 Apr 2010
ATL87
MIL91
20 Apr 2010
ATL96
MIL86
17 Apr 2010
ATL102
MIL92
28 Feb 2010
ATL106
MIL102
23 Jan 2009
ATL117
MIL87
26 Nov 2008
ATL102
MIL96
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Atlanta Hawks winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Milwaukee Bucks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Atlanta HawksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHawks
Date
Competition
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
W
117-107
117
107
+10
109avg 111
A20/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
L
97-128
97
128
-31
84avg 111
H21/02
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
115-104
115
104
+11
115avg 111
H22/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
119-98
119
98
+21
113avg 111
H25/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
126-96
126
96
+30
125avg 111
H27/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
135-101
135
101
+34
141avg 111
H01/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
131-113
131
113
+18
128avg 111
A05/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
W
125-116
125
116
+9
125avg 111
H07/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
124-112
124
112
+12
118avg 111
H10/03
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
108-97
108
97
+11
97avg 111
H12/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-26
32-27
28-31
29-23
16-29
35-28
24-30
22-41
32-30
28-26
29-31
26-17
35-20
25-23
40-21
19-34
37-26
39-30
22-24
28-16
44-25
31-33
28-27
32-16
25-38
41-33
32-18
33-24
28-38
38-35
31-21
28-22
40-26
24-27
31-38
29-21
30-21
27-29
25-29
26-18
226.9Avg total
119.7Scored
107.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (66)117.7116.9234.6+0.853%
Season at home (33)116.6115.8232.4+0.852%
Season away (33)118.8118.0236.8+0.855%
Last 10 (10)119.7107.2226.9+12.590%
Last 5 (5)124.6107.8232.4+16.8100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)111.5119.0230.5-7.550%
vs Similar (16)112.9116.0228.9-3.144%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)120.9109.8230.8+11.183%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Miami Heat
#17
W
128-117
128
117
+11
119avg 104
H25/02
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
W
118-116
118
116
+2
112avg 104
H26/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
98-127
98
127
-29
89avg 104
H28/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
L
97-120
97
120
-23
84avg 104
A01/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
81-108
81
108
-27
71avg 104
H03/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
113-131
113
131
-18
107avg 104
H05/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
113-99
113
99
+14
112avg 104
H08/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
L
91-130
91
130
-39
77avg 104
H09/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
L
114-129
114
129
-15
109avg 104
H11/03
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
L
105-112
105
112
-7
98avg 104
A12/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-29
33-29
26-35
39-24
33-33
29-30
31-31
25-22
30-38
27-39
26-26
15-24
32-30
34-21
23-36
8-33
20-30
23-27
22-26
16-25
38-25
33-41
18-32
24-33
24-13
27-31
32-32
30-23
15-25
40-42
15-33
21-30
30-36
35-26
32-38
17-29
21-31
30-28
26-26
28-27
224.7Avg total
105.8Scored
118.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (65)111.0115.9226.9-4.942%
Season at home (33)113.5117.9231.4-4.545%
Season away (32)108.5113.8222.3-5.338%
Last 10 (10)105.8118.9224.7-13.130%
Last 5 (5)107.2120.2227.4-13.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (22)105.0117.2222.2-12.127%
vs Similar (7)120.1112.3232.4+7.986%
vs Weaker (1)99.0109.0208.0-10.00%
This opponent (Atlanta Hawks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +3.6+3.6Q1: -1.7-1.7Q2Q2: +2.9+2.9Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q3: -6.4-6.4Q4Q4: +4.0+4.0Q4: -4.7-4.7
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +3.6+3.6Q1: -1.7-1.7Q2Q2: +2.9+2.9Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q3: -6.4-6.4Q4Q4: +4.0+4.0Q4: -4.7-4.7
Atlanta HawksMilwaukee Bucks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Atlanta HawksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
W
60-53
60
53
+7
A20/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
L
51-57
51
57
-6
H21/02
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
60-56
60
56
+4
H22/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
60-43
60
43
+17
H25/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
76-56
76
56
+20
H27/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
75-58
75
58
+17
H01/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
L
66-71
66
71
-5
A05/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
L
66-73
66
73
-7
H07/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
64-53
64
53
+11
H10/03
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
57-50
57
50
+7
H12/03
NBA
120.5Avg total
63.5Scored
57.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.059.8119.8+0.153%-
Last 30 at home (16)59.457.6116.9+1.856%-
Last 30 away (14)60.662.4123.1-1.850%-
Last 10 (10)63.557.0120.5+6.570%-
Last 5 (5)65.661.0126.6+4.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)55.564.0119.5-8.550%-
vs Similar (16)58.960.5119.4-1.644%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)62.258.2120.4+3.967%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami Heat
#17
W
63-58
63
58
+5
H25/02
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
L
62-63
62
63
-1
H26/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
57-77
57
77
-20
H28/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
66-51
66
51
+15
A01/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
43-57
43
57
-14
H03/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
71-66
71
66
+5
H05/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
51-44
51
44
+7
H08/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
L
55-67
55
67
-12
H09/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
65-62
65
62
+3
H11/03
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
L
51-59
51
59
-8
A12/03
NBA
118.8Avg total
58.4Scored
60.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.458.6115.0-2.247%-
Last 30 at home (15)56.761.1117.7-4.440%-
Last 30 away (15)56.256.1112.3+0.153%-
Last 10 (10)58.460.4118.8-2.050%-
Last 5 (5)58.659.6118.2-1.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (22)54.860.4115.2-5.536%-
vs Similar (7)63.453.3116.7+10.186%-
vs Weaker (1)43.057.0100.0-14.00%-
This opponent (Atlanta Hawks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Atlanta Hawkstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Atlanta Hawks: 119.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.6 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.4 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.529.3
54.8%
54.8%58.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.513.8
35.8%
35.8%41.4
🏀 Free throws25.619.7
77.0%
78.1%19.7
They take 92.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 105.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers42.9 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.7 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.225.1
55.5%
54.8%50.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.914.3
35.8%
35.8%42.9
🏀 Free throws18.212.7
69.8%
78.1%12.7
They take 85.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 39.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Atlanta Hawks
WWWWWWWWLW
Milwaukee Bucks
LLLWLLLLWW
#12
League position
#21
+12.2
Net rating
-13.2
116.9
Offensive rating
106.4
104.7
Defensive rating
119.6
54.3%
Effective FG%
54.7%
52.4%
Opp. effective FG%
57.2%
12.6%
Turnover %
14.7%
29.5%
Off. rebound %
18.5%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.21
35.8%
3-point %
35.8%
68.0%
Assist %
64.7%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence116.9 · 106.4Defence104.7 · 119.6Shooting54.3% · 54.7%3-point %35.8% · 35.8%Ball care12.6% · 14.7%Off. rebounds29.5% · 18.5%Free throws0.28 · 0.21Form (last 10/10)90% · 30%
■ Atlanta Hawks   ■ Milwaukee Bucks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Atlanta Hawks wins
5
Milwaukee Bucks wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/03/26HBrooklyn Nets108-97
10/03/26HDallas Mavericks124-112
07/03/26HPhiladelphia 76ers125-116
05/03/26AMilwaukee Bucks131-113
01/03/26HPortland Trail Blazers135-101
27/02/26HWashington Wizards126-96
25/02/26HWashington Wizards119-98
22/02/26HBrooklyn Nets115-104
21/02/26HMiami Heat97-128
20/02/26APhiladelphia 76ers117-107
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/03/26AMiami Heat105-112
11/03/26HPhoenix Suns114-129
09/03/26HOrlando Magic91-130
08/03/26HUtah Jazz113-99
05/03/26HAtlanta Hawks113-131
03/03/26HBoston Celtics81-108
01/03/26AChicago Bulls97-120
28/02/26HNew York Knicks98-127
26/02/26HCleveland Cavaliers118-116
25/02/26HMiami Heat128-117

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW53%
HomeWWWWW52%
AwayWLLWW55%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games663333
Win %53%52%55%
Points / game117.7116.6118.8
Allowed / game116.9115.8118.0
Point differential+0.8+0.8+0.8
Avg total234.6232.4236.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+35%33%36%
Close games (≤5 pts) won47% (17)38% (8)56% (9)
Overtime %2%0%3%
Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL42%
HomeLLWLL45%
AwayWWWLL38%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games653332
Win %42%45%38%
Points / game111.0113.5108.5
Allowed / game115.9117.9113.8
Point differential-4.9-4.5-5.3
Avg total226.9231.4222.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+23%30%16%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (16)57% (7)44% (9)
Overtime %5%9%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder65511478%118.4108.0+10.4
2 Detroit Pistons66481873%117.4109.6+7.7
3 San Antonio Spurs64461872%118.8111.9+6.9
4 Boston Celtics66432365%114.3107.1+7.2
5 Los Angeles Lakers65412463%116.3114.9+1.4
6 New York Knicks66412562%116.7110.7+6.1
7 Houston Rockets66412562%114.1109.9+4.2
8 Cleveland Cavaliers67412661%119.1114.6+4.4
9 Denver Nuggets67412661%120.6116.5+4.1
10 Minnesota Timberwolves67412661%118.7115.1+3.5
11 Phoenix Suns66392759%112.9110.8+2.1
12 Miami Heat66382858%120.7116.5+4.1
13 Orlando Magic63362757%115.5113.8+1.7
14 Toronto Raptors65372857%113.7111.9+1.9
15 Philadelphia 76ers67363154%115.7116.2-0.5
16 Atlanta Hawks66353153%117.7116.9+0.8
17 Los Angeles Clippers66343252%113.5112.5+1.0
18 Charlotte Hornets67343351%115.7112.3+3.4
19 Golden State Warriors66323448%115.2114.4+0.8
20 Portland Trail Blazers67323548%115.3117.7-2.4
21 Milwaukee Bucks65273842%111.0115.9-4.9
22 Chicago Bulls67274040%115.7120.2-4.5
23 Memphis Grizzlies66234335%115.7118.4-2.7
24 Dallas Mavericks67224533%112.9118.0-5.1
25 New Orleans Pelicans68224632%115.4119.8-4.4
26 Utah Jazz67204730%117.4125.0-7.7
27 Brooklyn Nets67175025%106.7115.6-8.9
28 Washington Wizards65164925%112.8123.9-11.0
29 Sacramento Kings67165124%110.6120.9-10.2
30 Indiana Pacers67155222%111.0119.7-8.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Atlanta Hawks31293527122
Milwaukee Bucks3022262199
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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