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Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 23 Feb 2025
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 120-113
23-37 32-28 30-28 35-20
Position#13
Record29-24
FormWLWWW
Points / game114.2
Allowed / game112.9
vs
Position#20
Record26-28
FormLLLLW
Points / game110.0
Allowed / game110.7
USANBA· Fiserv Forum
NBA2024-25
Meetings · Milwaukee Bucks v Miami Heat
12 Mar 2027
MIL v MIA
upcoming
28 Jan 2027
MIL v MIA
upcoming
24 Feb 2026
MIL128
MIA117
23 Feb 2025
MIL120
MIA113
23 Jan 2025
MIL125
MIA96
13 Feb 2024
MIL97
MIA123
30 Oct 2023
MIL122
MIA114
26 Apr 2023
MIL126
MIA128
19 Apr 2023
MIL138
MIA122
16 Apr 2023
MIL117
MIA130
24 Feb 2023
MIL128
MIA99
04 Feb 2023
MIL123
MIA115
02 Mar 2022
MIL120
MIA119
04 Dec 2021
MIL124
MIA102
24 May 2021
MIL132
MIA98
22 May 2021
MIL109
MIA107
15 May 2021
MIL122
MIA108
08 Sep 2020
MIL94
MIA103
02 Sep 2020
MIL114
MIA116
31 Aug 2020
MIL104
MIA115
06 Aug 2020
MIL130
MIA116
26 Oct 2019
MIL126
MIA131
22 Mar 2019
MIL116
MIA87
15 Jan 2019
MIL124
MIA86
17 Jan 2018
MIL101
MIA106
08 Feb 2017
MIL88
MIA106
13 Jan 2017
MIL116
MIA108
09 Mar 2016
MIL114
MIA108
29 Jan 2016
MIL103
MIA107
24 Mar 2015
MIL89
MIA88
05 Dec 2014
MIL109
MIA85
29 Mar 2014
MIL67
MIA88
28 Apr 2013
MIL77
MIA88
25 Apr 2013
MIL91
MIA104
15 Mar 2013
MIL94
MIA107
29 Dec 2012
MIL104
MIA85
13 Feb 2012
MIL96
MIA114
01 Feb 2012
MIL105
MIA97
07 Jan 2011
MIL95
MIA101
06 Dec 2010
MIL78
MIA88
26 Mar 2010
MIL74
MIA87
30 Jan 2010
MIL95
MIA84
14 Jan 2009
MIL99
MIA102
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Milwaukee Bucks winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
San Antonio Spurs
#23
L
118-144
118
144
-26
103avg 106
A01/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
L
119-132
119
132
-13
110avg 106
H03/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
96-125
96
125
-29
77avg 106
A04/02
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
112-102
112
102
+10
112avg 106
A06/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
L
110-115
110
115
-5
100avg 106
A08/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#26
W
135-127
135
127
+8
126avg 106
H09/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
111-125
111
125
-14
100avg 106
H11/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
W
103-101
103
101
+2
97avg 106
A13/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
116-110
116
110
+6
110avg 106
H21/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
104-101
104
101
+3
97avg 106
A22/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
35-35
36-35
30-45
17-29
28-31
30-25
41-37
20-39
22-39
22-39
31-38
21-9
38-26
28-30
20-21
26-25
26-36
47-19
17-37
20-23
40-39
25-24
38-28
32-36
27-29
24-29
32-31
28-36
36-24
15-26
19-19
33-32
28-29
29-21
23-39
36-21
19-32
31-24
34-19
20-26
230.6Avg total
112.4Scored
118.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (53)114.2112.9227.1+1.355%
Season at home (26)117.6111.3228.9+6.365%
Season away (27)111.0114.4225.4-3.444%
Last 10 (10)112.4118.2230.6-5.850%
Last 5 (5)113.8112.8226.6+1.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)98.5124.5223.0-26.00%
vs Similar ◀ (14)115.1112.8227.9+2.357%
vs Weaker (14)116.9112.1229.0+4.964%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Orlando Magic
#15
W
125-119 OT
125
119
+6
122avg 104
H28/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
106-126
106
126
-20
99avg 104
H30/01
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#23
W
105-103
105
103
+2
103avg 104
A02/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
L
124-133
124
133
-9
118avg 104
A05/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#26
W
108-101
108
101
+7
108avg 104
A06/02
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
L
86-102
86
102
-16
71avg 104
A08/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
85-103
85
103
-18
73avg 104
H11/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
101-115
101
115
-14
97avg 104
A13/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
L
113-118
113
118
-5
100avg 104
A14/02
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#24
W
120-111 OT
120
111
+9
110avg 104
A22/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-29
28-30
24-29
29-20
21-31
20-28
43-35
22-32
33-33
27-23
25-26
20-21
37-32
33-28
33-34
21-39
29-25
33-32
24-22
22-22
26-28
27-25
24-18
9-31
24-18
19-34
22-36
20-15
35-23
28-29
30-31
8-32
22-21
34-34
27-29
30-34
30-19
27-29
27-32
23-27
220.4Avg total
107.3Scored
113.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (54)110.0110.7220.8-0.748%
Season at home (23)111.7111.3223.0+0.352%
Season away (31)108.8110.3219.1-1.545%
Last 10 (10)107.3113.1220.4-5.840%
Last 5 (5)101.0109.8210.8-8.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)98.5109.5208.0-11.017%
vs Similar ◀ (17)112.8115.2228.0-2.441%
vs Weaker (7)103.7104.4208.1-0.771%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -2.1-2.1Q1: +2.5+2.5Q2Q2: +1.5+1.5Q2: -1.6-1.6Q3Q3: -2.9-2.9Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: -2.3-2.3Q4: -6.9-6.9
-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -2.1-2.1Q1: +2.5+2.5Q2Q2: +1.5+1.5Q2: -1.6-1.6Q3Q3: -2.9-2.9Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: -2.3-2.3Q4: -6.9-6.9
Milwaukee BucksMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
San Antonio Spurs
#23
W
71-70
71
70
+1
A01/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
W
58-56
58
56
+2
H03/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
44-78
44
78
-34
A04/02
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
66-56
66
56
+10
A06/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
W
73-55
73
55
+18
A08/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#26
W
65-63
65
63
+2
H09/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
51-58
51
58
-7
H11/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
W
51-50
51
50
+1
A13/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
57-50
57
50
+7
H21/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
L
50-56
50
56
-6
A22/02
NBA
117.8Avg total
58.6Scored
59.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.257.0117.2+3.263%-
Last 30 at home (14)61.653.6115.2+7.979%-
Last 30 away (16)59.059.9118.9-0.950%-
Last 10 (10)58.659.2117.8-0.670%-
Last 5 (5)54.855.4110.2-0.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)47.573.5121.0-26.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)60.155.3115.4+4.864%-
vs Weaker (14)62.156.4118.5+5.871%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Orlando Magic
#15
L
55-59
55
59
-4
H28/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
41-59
41
59
-18
H30/01
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#23
W
60-56
60
56
+4
A02/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
70-60
70
60
+10
A05/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#26
W
62-57
62
57
+5
A06/02
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
D
53-53
53
53
+0
A08/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
43-52
43
52
-9
H11/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
63-52
63
52
+11
A13/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
W
56-55
56
55
+1
A14/02
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#24
W
57-48
57
48
+9
A22/02
NBA
111.1Avg total
56.0Scored
55.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.654.3108.9+0.357%-
Last 30 at home (11)49.756.8106.5-7.127%-
Last 30 away (19)57.452.8110.3+4.674%-
Last 10 (10)56.055.1111.1+0.960%-
Last 5 (5)54.452.0106.4+2.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)49.251.0100.2-1.850%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)57.356.1113.4+1.253%-
vs Weaker (7)52.752.9105.6-0.171%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 112.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.0 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers46.2 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.2 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.625.0
51.4%
54.3%50.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.615.4
37.9%
35.9%46.2
🏀 Free throws21.216.2
76.4%
77.8%16.2
They take 89.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 40.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 107.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.3 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.6 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.426.7
55.2%
54.3%53.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.513.1
33.2%
35.9%39.3
🏀 Free throws19.314.6
75.6%
77.8%14.6
They take 87.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 39.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 23 Feb 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Milwaukee Bucks
WWWLWLWLLL
Miami Heat
WLLLLWLWLW
#13
League position
#20
-5.7
Net rating
-5.8
109.5
Offensive rating
108.0
115.2
Defensive rating
113.8
53.9%
Effective FG%
52.7%
53.9%
Opp. effective FG%
54.0%
13.0%
Turnover %
13.6%
20.1%
Off. rebound %
23.1%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.22
37.9%
3-point %
33.2%
62.1%
Assist %
64.3%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence109.5 · 108.0Defence115.2 · 113.8Shooting53.9% · 52.7%3-point %37.9% · 33.2%Ball care13.0% · 13.6%Off. rebounds20.1% · 23.1%Free throws0.24 · 0.22Form (last 10/10)50% · 40%
■ Milwaukee Bucks   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Milwaukee Bucks wins
5
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/02/25AWashington Wizards104-101
21/02/25HLos Angeles Clippers116-110
13/02/25AMinnesota Timberwolves103-101
11/02/25HGolden State Warriors111-125
09/02/25HPhiladelphia 76ers135-127
08/02/25AAtlanta Hawks110-115
06/02/25ACharlotte Hornets112-102
04/02/25AOklahoma City Thunder96-125
03/02/25HMemphis Grizzlies119-132
01/02/25ASan Antonio Spurs118-144
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/02/25AToronto Raptors120-111 OT
14/02/25ADallas Mavericks113-118
13/02/25AOklahoma City Thunder101-115
11/02/25HBoston Celtics85-103
08/02/25ABrooklyn Nets86-102
06/02/25APhiladelphia 76ers108-101
05/02/25AChicago Bulls124-133
02/02/25ASan Antonio Spurs105-103
30/01/25HCleveland Cavaliers106-126
28/01/25HOrlando Magic125-119 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW55%
HomeWLWLW65%
AwayLWLWW44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532627
Win %55%65%44%
Points / game114.2117.6111.0
Allowed / game112.9111.3114.4
Point differential+1.3+6.3-3.4
Avg total227.1228.9225.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+34%46%22%
Close games (≤5 pts) won46% (13)25% (4)56% (9)
Overtime %2%4%0%
Miami Heat
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW48%
HomeWLWLL52%
AwayWLLLW45%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games542331
Win %48%52%45%
Points / game110.0111.7108.8
Allowed / game110.7111.3110.3
Point differential-0.7+0.3-1.5
Avg total220.8223.0219.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%35%13%
Close games (≤5 pts) won47% (15)33% (3)50% (12)
Overtime %11%9%13%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Cleveland Cavaliers56461082%122.8111.5+11.3
2 Oklahoma City Thunder53431081%118.2105.1+13.1
3 Boston Celtics57411672%117.4108.0+9.3
4 Memphis Grizzlies56371966%122.8115.8+7.0
5 New York Knicks56371966%118.2113.2+5.0
6 Denver Nuggets57372065%121.3116.0+5.3
7 Houston Rockets55342162%113.6109.3+4.3
8 Los Angeles Lakers55342162%113.1111.8+1.3
9 Indiana Pacers55322358%116.5115.5+1.0
10 Los Angeles Clippers56312555%110.9108.5+2.4
11 Milwaukee Bucks53292455%114.2112.9+1.3
12 Minnesota Timberwolves57312654%111.6108.3+3.2
13 Dallas Mavericks57312654%115.6113.5+2.1
14 Golden State Warriors56302654%112.9111.8+1.2
15 Detroit Pistons56302654%113.8113.0+0.7
16 Sacramento Kings56282850%116.6116.3+0.3
17 Orlando Magic57282949%104.1105.3-1.2
18 Phoenix Suns56272948%113.3115.1-1.8
19 Miami Heat54262848%110.0110.7-0.7
20 Atlanta Hawks54252946%117.0119.6-2.6
21 San Antonio Spurs54243044%113.0114.5-1.5
22 Portland Trail Blazers57243342%109.6114.3-4.6
23 Chicago Bulls57223539%115.9120.6-4.6
24 Brooklyn Nets56213538%104.9110.8-6.0
25 Philadelphia 76ers56203636%108.9113.0-4.1
26 Toronto Raptors56173930%110.6116.6-6.0
27 Charlotte Hornets55144125%106.0112.3-6.4
28 Utah Jazz56144225%112.4119.5-7.1
29 New Orleans Pelicans56134323%110.4119.3-8.8
30 Washington Wizards5594616%108.4121.7-13.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Milwaukee Bucks23323035120
Miami Heat37282820113
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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