PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Basket Napoli vs Virtus Bologna Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 03 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 19:00
Scheduled
Position#2
Record5-1
FormLWWWW
Points / game94.2
Allowed / game86.2
Basket Napoli
Italy
vs
Virtus Bologna
Italy
Position#1
Record5-0
FormWLWLL
Points / game97.4
Allowed / game84.2
ItalyLega ARound 14· PalaBarbuto
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · Basket Napoli v Virtus Bologna
03 Jan 2027
NAP v VIR
upcoming
07 Mar 2026
NAP71
VIR90
16 Mar 2025
NAP93
VIR88
21 Sep 2024
NAP87
VIR96
30 Oct 2023
NAP75
VIR88
02 Oct 2022
NAP77
VIR89
24 Oct 2021
NAP92
VIR89
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Basket Napoli win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Virtus Bologna win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Basket NapoliItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNapoli
Date
Competition
JL Bourg
#25
W
84-76
84
76
+8
76avg 81
H30/09
Eurocup
Reggiana
#13
W
99-93
99
93
+6
95avg 81
H03/10
Lega A
Buducnost
#18
W
93-75
93
75
+18
94avg 81
A06/10
Eurocup
Cantu
#16
W
99-80
99
80
+19
90avg 81
A11/10
Lega A
Slask Wroclaw
#29
W
86-82
86
82
+4
84avg 81
A14/10
Eurocup
Olimpia Milano
#6
L
82-98
82
98
-16
72avg 81
H18/10
Lega A
Tofas
#6
W
105-101 OT
105
101
+4
99avg 81
H21/10
Eurocup
Tortona
#14
W
92-90
92
90
+2
86avg 81
A25/10
Lega A
Neptunas
#28
W
94-85
94
85
+9
98avg 81
A28/10
Eurocup
Venezia
#9
W
99-81
99
81
+18
no box
H01/11
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-17
28-20
18-13
19-26
23-34
27-15
26-28
23-16
25-19
28-14
22-18
18-24
20-19
29-22
17-20
33-19
22-18
18-19
21-24
25-21
25-18
13-23
23-25
21-32
29-20
24-22
20-24
20-27
19-26
22-21
26-17
25-26
24-20
23-25
24-20
23-20
19-16
25-22
30-20
25-23
179.4Avg total
93.3Scored
86.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)94.286.2180.3+8.083%
Season at home (3)93.390.7184.0+2.767%
Season away (3)95.081.7176.7+13.3100%
Last 10 (10)93.386.1179.4+7.290%
Last 5 (5)94.491.0185.4+3.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)80.796.2176.8-15.50%
vs Similar (15)88.285.3173.5+2.953%
vs Weaker (9)93.381.9175.2+11.4100%
This opponent (Virtus Bologna) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Virtus BolognaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBologna
Date
Competition
Maxima Roma
#4
W
98-89
98
89
+9
100avg 81
H04/10
Lega A
Bayern
#18
W
94-87
94
87
+7
86avg 81
A08/10
Euroleague
Venezia
#9
W
93-86
93
86
+7
86avg 81
A11/10
Lega A
Paris
#16
W
96-94
96
94
+2
95avg 81
A14/10
Euroleague
Baskonia
#20
W
86-78
86
78
+8
81avg 81
H16/10
Euroleague
Scafati
#15
W
108-83
108
83
+25
113avg 81
H18/10
Lega A
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#6
L
81-90
81
90
-9
65avg 81
A21/10
Euroleague
Olimpia Milano
#6
W
98-94 OT
98
94
+4
90avg 81
A25/10
Lega A
Zalgiris Kaunas
#10
L
74-91
74
91
-17
62avg 81
H28/10
Euroleague
Besiktas
#11
L
101-103
101
103
-2
97avg 81
H30/10
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-16
12-26
28-26
33-21
35-21
17-22
23-25
19-19
20-29
25-22
24-21
24-14
26-26
20-12
18-27
32-29
24-12
22-22
22-19
18-25
32-17
18-19
23-20
35-27
25-23
23-13
14-28
19-26
20-22
17-30
22-15
22-14
22-14
13-23
18-28
21-26
24-24
30-23
20-23
27-33
182.4Avg total
92.9Scored
89.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)97.484.2181.6+13.2100%
Season at home (2)103.086.0189.0+17.0100%
Season away (3)93.783.0176.7+10.7100%
Last 10 (10)92.989.5182.4+3.470%
Last 5 (5)92.492.2184.6+0.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)79.888.2168.0-8.525%
vs Similar (4)89.591.0180.5-1.550%
vs Weaker ◀ (22)91.483.9175.2+7.573%
This opponent (Basket Napoli) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: +4.9+4.9Q2Q2: +3.4+3.4Q2: -1.5-1.5Q3Q3: +1.8+1.8Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: +1.6+1.6
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: +4.9+4.9Q2Q2: +3.4+3.4Q2: -1.5-1.5Q3Q3: +1.8+1.8Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: +1.6+1.6
Basket NapoliVirtus Bologna
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Basket NapoliLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
JL Bourg
#25
W
47-37
47
37
+10
H30/09
Eurocup
Reggiana
#13
W
50-49
50
49
+1
H03/10
Lega A
Buducnost
#18
W
53-33
53
33
+20
A06/10
Eurocup
Cantu
#16
W
49-41
49
41
+8
A11/10
Lega A
Slask Wroclaw
#29
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A14/10
Eurocup
Olimpia Milano
#6
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H18/10
Lega A
Tofas
#6
W
53-42
53
42
+11
H21/10
Eurocup
Tortona
#14
L
41-47
41
47
-6
A25/10
Lega A
Neptunas
#28
W
47-45
47
45
+2
A28/10
Eurocup
Venezia
#9
W
44-38
44
38
+6
H01/11
Lega A
87.2Avg total
46.2Scored
41.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.141.084.1+2.170%-
Last 30 at home (15)42.537.780.2+4.973%-
Last 30 away (15)43.744.488.1-0.767%-
Last 10 (10)46.241.087.2+5.280%-
Last 5 (5)44.642.687.2+2.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)40.745.085.7-4.350%-
vs Similar (15)42.239.581.7+2.767%-
vs Weaker (9)46.241.087.2+5.289%-
This opponent (Virtus Bologna) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Virtus BolognaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Maxima Roma
#4
L
37-42
37
42
-5
H04/10
Lega A
Bayern
#18
W
52-43
52
43
+9
A08/10
Euroleague
Venezia
#9
L
45-51
45
51
-6
A11/10
Lega A
Paris
#16
W
46-38
46
38
+8
A14/10
Euroleague
Baskonia
#20
W
46-34
46
34
+12
H16/10
Euroleague
Scafati
#15
W
50-36
50
36
+14
H18/10
Lega A
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#6
W
48-36
48
36
+12
A21/10
Euroleague
Olimpia Milano
#6
L
37-52
37
52
-15
A25/10
Lega A
Zalgiris Kaunas
#10
L
35-37
35
37
-2
H28/10
Euroleague
Besiktas
#11
W
54-47
54
47
+7
H30/10
Euroleague
86.6Avg total
45.0Scored
41.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.341.586.8+3.963%-
Last 30 at home (15)48.742.190.7+6.667%-
Last 30 away (15)42.040.982.9+1.160%-
Last 10 (10)45.041.686.6+3.460%-
Last 5 (5)44.841.686.4+3.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)42.540.583.0+2.025%-
vs Similar (4)44.841.286.0+3.575%-
vs Weaker ◀ (22)46.041.787.6+4.368%-
This opponent (Basket Napoli) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Basket Napolitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Basket Napoli: 92.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.4 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.7 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.7 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.4 points a game
46%
33%
21%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.520.2
58.6%
54.3%40.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.411.9
41.9%
34.7%35.7
🏀 Free throws23.016.7
72.6%
74.4%16.7
They take 62.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Virtus Bolognatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Virtus Bologna: 92.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.4 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.7 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.4 points a game
46%
33%
21%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.821.9
55.0%
54.3%43.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.09.8
36.3%
34.7%29.4
🏀 Free throws24.819.7
79.4%
74.4%19.7
They take 66.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 03 Jan 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Basket Napoli
WWWWLWWWWW
Virtus Bologna
LLWLWWWWWW
#2
League position
#1
+8.3
Net rating
+3.7
105.9
Offensive rating
102.2
97.5
Defensive rating
98.4
60.5%
Effective FG%
54.8%
52.0%
Opp. effective FG%
53.0%
16.3%
Turnover %
14.0%
0.37
Free-throw rate
0.37
41.9%
3-point %
36.3%
67.9%
Assist %
57.7%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence105.9 · 102.2Defence97.5 · 98.4Shooting60.5% · 54.8%3-point %41.9% · 36.3%Ball care16.3% · 14.0%Free throws0.37 · 0.37Form (last 10/10)90% · 70%
■ Basket Napoli   ■ Virtus Bologna
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Basket Napoli wins
8
Virtus Bologna wins
DateGameScore
07/03/26Basket Napoli v Virtus Bologna71-90
06/10/25Virtus Bologna v Basket Napoli105-88
16/03/25Basket Napoli v Virtus Bologna93-88
12/01/25Virtus Bologna v Basket Napoli86-75
21/09/24Basket Napoli v Virtus Bologna87-96
28/01/24Virtus Bologna v Basket Napoli101-89
30/10/23Basket Napoli v Virtus Bologna75-88
08/04/23Virtus Bologna v Basket Napoli81-89
02/10/22Basket Napoli v Virtus Bologna77-89
06/03/22Virtus Bologna v Basket Napoli86-75
Basket Napolilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/11/26HVenezia99-81
28/10/26ANeptunas94-85
25/10/26ATortona92-90
21/10/26HTofas105-101 OT
18/10/26HOlimpia Milano82-98
14/10/26ASlask Wroclaw86-82
11/10/26ACantu99-80
06/10/26ABuducnost93-75
03/10/26HReggiana99-93
30/09/26HJL Bourg84-76
Virtus Bolognalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/10/26HBesiktas101-103
28/10/26HZalgiris Kaunas74-91
25/10/26AOlimpia Milano98-94 OT
21/10/26AHapoel Tel-Aviv81-90
18/10/26HScafati108-83
16/10/26HBaskonia86-78
14/10/26AParis96-94
11/10/26AVenezia93-86
08/10/26ABayern94-87
04/10/26HMaxima Roma98-89

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Basket Napoli
Lega A 2026-27
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW83%
HomeWLW67%
AwayWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %83%67%100%
Points / game94.293.395.0
Allowed / game86.290.781.7
Point differential+8.0+2.7+13.3
Avg total180.3184.0176.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%33%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Virtus Bologna
Lega A 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWW100%
AwayWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game97.4103.093.7
Allowed / game84.286.083.0
Point differential+13.2+17.0+10.7
Avg total181.6189.0176.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%50%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %20%0%33%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Virtus Bologna550100%97.484.2+13.2
2 Basket Napoli65183%94.286.2+8.0
3 Treviso65183%93.288.8+4.3
4 Maxima Roma64267%86.383.2+3.2
5 Varese64267%88.888.2+0.7
6 Olimpia Milano53260%90.682.2+8.4
7 Udine63350%80.880.2+0.7
8 Verona63350%89.790.5-0.8
9 Venezia63350%88.790.3-1.7
10 Trento63350%79.582.8-3.3
11 Trieste52340%89.085.2+3.8
12 BC Roma62433%100.296.5+3.7
13 Reggiana62433%82.383.8-1.5
14 Tortona61517%83.293.5-10.3
15 Scafati61517%80.392.2-11.8
16 Cantu5050%73.888.4-14.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.