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Canberra Capitals W vs Adelaide Lightning W Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 09 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 08:00
Final 76-71
20-18 24-25 16-17 16-11
Position#5
Record3-6
FormLWLLW
Points / game72.2
Allowed / game79.8
Canberra Capitals W 🏆
Australia
vs
Adelaide Lightning W
Australia
Position#7
Record3-6
FormLLWLL
Points / game75.6
Allowed / game84.4
AustraliaNBL WRound 8· AIS Arena
Women2025-26
Meetings · Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W
09 Dec 2025
CANB76
ADEL71
11 Jan 2025
CANB91
ADEL76
21 Dec 2023
CANB86
ADEL73
05 Nov 2023
CANB79
ADEL82
18 Feb 2023
CANB72
ADEL78
02 Feb 2023
CANB97
ADEL90
19 Dec 2021
CANB62
ADEL88
04 Dec 2020
CANB85
ADEL65
01 Feb 2020
CANB73
ADEL71
13 Oct 2019
CANB90
ADEL83
16 Feb 2019
CANB93
ADEL73
09 Feb 2019
CANB88
ADEL67
21 Oct 2018
CANB79
ADEL75
17 Dec 2017
CANB88
ADEL87
08 Oct 2017
CANB84
ADEL77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Canberra Capitals W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Adelaide Lightning W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Canberra Capitals WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Bendigo W
#1
W
83-74
83
74
+9
76avg 67
H15/02
NBL W
Southside W
#4
W
80-71
80
71
+9
76avg 67
A18/10
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
70-105
70
105
-35
58avg 67
H25/10
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
L
65-73
65
73
-8
54avg 67
A01/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
L
64-73
64
73
-9
55avg 67
A06/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
71-73
71
73
-2
59avg 67
A08/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
96-56
96
56
+40
97avg 67
H15/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
61-101
61
101
-40
40avg 67
A22/11
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
67-91
67
91
-24
55avg 67
H29/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
76-75
76
75
+1
70avg 67
A07/12
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-17
22-21
21-21
23-15
24-16
24-22
18-18
14-15
21-28
12-26
25-21
12-30
21-22
19-19
10-17
15-15
14-17
12-14
12-21
26-21
18-28
19-16
21-11
13-18
34-10
21-16
25-9
16-21
18-26
13-31
13-23
17-21
17-23
19-20
21-27
10-21
16-18
16-17
19-18
25-22
152.5Avg total
73.3Scored
79.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)72.279.8152.0-7.633%
Season at home (3)77.784.0161.7-6.333%
Season away (6)69.577.7147.2-8.233%
Last 10 (10)73.379.2152.5-5.940%
Last 5 (5)74.279.2153.4-5.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)72.889.0161.8-16.221%
vs Similar ◀ (13)80.080.3160.3-0.338%
vs Weaker (3)84.368.7153.0+15.7100%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Geelong United W
#8
W
87-70
87
70
+17
90avg 63
H16/02
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
72-75
72
75
-3
61avg 63
H19/10
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
76-110
76
110
-34
66avg 63
A25/10
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
73-65
73
65
+8
68avg 63
H01/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
88-71
88
71
+17
88avg 63
H09/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
69-103
69
103
-34
52avg 63
A15/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
74-82
74
82
-8
60avg 63
H18/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
99-93 OT
99
93
+6
33avg 63
H21/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
64-90
64
90
-26
45avg 63
H25/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
65-71
65
71
-6
55avg 63
A30/11
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-27
15-19
27-14
18-10
9-26
24-18
18-13
21-18
25-16
13-32
22-32
16-30
22-21
19-19
17-10
15-15
24-14
22-19
28-10
14-28
22-26
21-21
15-31
11-25
19-25
17-20
15-22
23-15
27-24
25-22
13-21
19-17
19-26
17-21
9-22
19-21
19-19
27-24
11-19
8-9
159.7Avg total
76.7Scored
83.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)75.684.4160.0-8.933%
Season at home (6)78.379.3157.7-1.050%
Season away (3)70.094.7164.7-24.70%
Last 10 (10)76.783.0159.7-6.340%
Last 5 (5)74.287.8162.0-13.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)68.580.9149.4-12.47%
vs Similar ◀ (13)79.878.7158.5+1.262%
vs Weaker (3)70.770.3141.0+0.333%
This opponent (Canberra Capitals W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: -1.1-1.1Q2Q2: -2.5-2.5Q2: -1.5-1.5Q3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q3: -1.9-1.9Q4Q4: -2.8-2.8Q4: -2.4-2.4
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: -1.1-1.1Q2Q2: -2.5-2.5Q2: -1.5-1.5Q3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q3: -1.9-1.9Q4Q4: -2.8-2.8Q4: -2.4-2.4
Canberra Capitals WAdelaide Lightning W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Canberra Capitals WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bendigo W
#1
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H15/02
NBL W
Southside W
#4
W
48-38
48
38
+10
A18/10
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
33-54
33
54
-21
H25/10
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
L
40-41
40
41
-1
A01/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
L
26-31
26
31
-5
A06/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
37-44
37
44
-7
A08/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
55-26
55
26
+29
H15/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
31-57
31
57
-26
A22/11
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
36-43
36
43
-7
H29/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
32-35
32
35
-3
A07/12
NBL W
78.4Avg total
37.7Scored
40.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.743.382.9-3.637%-
Last 30 at home (14)42.941.584.4+1.457%-
Last 30 away (16)36.844.881.6-8.019%-
Last 10 (10)37.740.778.4-3.030%-
Last 5 (5)38.241.079.2-2.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)38.647.686.2-8.929%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)40.139.980.0+0.238%-
vs Weaker (3)42.737.780.3+5.067%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Geelong United W
#8
L
42-46
42
46
-4
H16/02
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
33-44
33
44
-11
H19/10
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
38-48
38
48
-10
A25/10
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
41-40
41
40
+1
H01/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
46-33
46
33
+13
H09/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
43-47
43
47
-4
A15/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
36-45
36
45
-9
H18/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
52-46
52
46
+6
H21/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
36-47
36
47
-11
H25/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
W
46-43
46
43
+3
A30/11
NBL W
85.2Avg total
41.3Scored
43.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.141.180.2-2.037%-
Last 30 at home (16)40.642.182.6-1.544%-
Last 30 away (14)37.440.077.4-2.629%-
Last 10 (10)41.343.985.2-2.640%-
Last 5 (5)42.645.688.2-3.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)38.643.281.9-4.621%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)40.639.880.5+0.854%-
vs Weaker (3)34.336.771.0-2.333%-
This opponent (Canberra Capitals W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Canberra Capitals Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Canberra Capitals W: 73.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.8 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.1 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.4 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.420.9
45.0%
47.8%41.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.86.7
29.4%
32.8%20.1
🏀 Free throws15.911.4
71.7%
73.3%11.4
They take 69.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 33% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 70.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.4 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.6 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.3 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.919.2
49.4%
47.8%38.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.17.2
32.6%
32.8%21.6
🏀 Free throws13.510.3
76.3%
73.3%10.3
They take 61.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 09 Dec 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Canberra Capitals W
WLLWLLLLWW
Adelaide Lightning W
LLWLLWWLLW
#5
League position
#7
-4.2
Net rating
-10.0
93.2
Offensive rating
94.5
97.3
Defensive rating
104.5
44.7%
Effective FG%
49.2%
47.4%
Opp. effective FG%
51.6%
20.4%
Turnover %
22.1%
32.1%
Off. rebound %
27.1%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.22
29.4%
3-point %
32.6%
62.3%
Assist %
61.7%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence93.2 · 94.5Defence97.3 · 104.5Shooting44.7% · 49.2%3-point %29.4% · 32.6%Ball care20.4% · 22.1%Off. rebounds32.1% · 27.1%Free throws0.23 · 0.22Form (last 10/10)40% · 40%
■ Canberra Capitals W   ■ Adelaide Lightning W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Canberra Capitals W wins
6
Adelaide Lightning W wins
DateGameScore
01/11/25Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W73-65
11/01/25Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W91-76
03/01/25Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W77-88
15/12/24Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W68-67
28/01/24Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W84-67
21/12/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W86-73
05/11/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W79-82
18/02/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W72-78
02/02/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W97-90 OT
30/11/22Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W90-80
Canberra Capitals Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/12/25AGeelong Venom W76-75
29/11/25HPerth Lynx W67-91
22/11/25ATownsville W61-101
15/11/25HSydney W96-56
08/11/25ABendigo W71-73
06/11/25ASydney W64-73
01/11/25AAdelaide Lightning W65-73
25/10/25HTownsville W70-105
18/10/25ASouthside W80-71
15/02/25HBendigo W83-74
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/11/25ABendigo W65-71
25/11/25HTownsville W64-90
21/11/25HGeelong Venom W99-93 OT
18/11/25HBendigo W74-82
15/11/25ATownsville W69-103
09/11/25HSydney W88-71
01/11/25HCanberra Capitals W73-65
25/10/25AGeelong Venom W76-110
19/10/25HPerth Lynx W72-75
16/02/25HGeelong United W87-70

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Canberra Capitals W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW33%
HomeLWL33%
AwayLLLLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games936
Win %33%33%33%
Points / game72.277.769.5
Allowed / game79.884.077.7
Point differential-7.6-6.3-8.2
Avg total152.0161.7147.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL33%
HomeWWLWL50%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games963
Win %33%50%0%
Points / game75.678.370.0
Allowed / game84.479.394.7
Point differential-8.9-1.0-24.7
Avg total160.0157.7164.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%17%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %11%17%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Townsville W109190%89.867.3+22.5
2 Bendigo W119282%76.567.3+9.2
3 Perth Lynx W107370%76.975.7+1.2
4 Southside W93633%75.079.7-4.7
5 Canberra Capitals W93633%72.279.8-7.6
6 Adelaide Lightning W93633%75.684.4-8.9
7 Geelong Venom W113827%77.579.5-1.9
8 Sydney W113827%72.784.3-11.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Canberra Capitals W2024161676
Adelaide Lightning W1825171171
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