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Cearense vs Brasilia Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 11 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 22:30
Final 49-81
14-24 4-15 23-21 8-21
Position#19
Record6-23
FormLLWLL
Points / game76.8
Allowed / game87.4
vs
Position#5
Record21-8
FormWWLWW
Points / game82.1
Allowed / game72.7
BrazilNBB· Centro de Formacao Olimpica
Other2025-26
Meetings · Cearense v Brasilia
13 Dec 2026
CEAR v BRAS
upcoming
11 Mar 2026
CEAR49
BRAS81
07 Feb 2025
CEAR62
BRAS84
29 Dec 2023
CEAR83
BRAS73
19 Oct 2022
CEAR62
BRAS75
15 Apr 2022
CEAR77
BRAS65
06 Dec 2020
CEAR71
BRAS63
06 Dec 2019
CEAR91
BRAS56
05 Dec 2018
CEAR76
BRAS63
17 Nov 2016
CEAR72
BRAS81
17 Nov 2015
CEAR81
BRAS85
13 Mar 2015
CEAR96
BRAS84
30 Jan 2014
CEAR88
BRAS77
26 Feb 2013
CEAR100
BRAS104
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Cearense winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Brasilia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

CearenseBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCearense
Date
Competition
Flamengo
#4
L
81-88
81
88
-7
68avg 66
H10/01
NBB
Vasco
#20
L
73-78
73
78
-5
71avg 66
H13/01
NBB
Botafogo
#16
W
86-82
86
82
+4
no box
H16/01
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
L
66-71
66
71
-5
55avg 66
H20/01
NBB
Sao Jose
#9
L
82-97
82
97
-15
70avg 66
A04/02
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#6
L
76-96
76
96
-20
71avg 66
A07/02
NBB
Mogi
#8
L
76-88
76
88
-12
66avg 66
A09/02
NBB
Pato
#17
W
64-59
64
59
+5
52avg 66
H18/02
NBB
Bauru
#10
L
70-107
70
107
-37
56avg 66
A05/03
NBB
Pinheiros
#2
L
77-83
77
83
-6
70avg 66
A07/03
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
11-21
20-23
27-20
23-24
20-10
18-25
24-14
11-29
26-22
24-21
15-20
21-19
15-23
18-14
22-19
11-15
28-25
13-25
22-25
19-22
19-26
18-16
18-28
21-26
20-27
12-19
20-22
24-20
21-16
14-24
10-8
19-11
14-32
21-25
20-25
15-25
20-21
28-12
11-27
18-23
160.0Avg total
75.1Scored
84.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)76.887.4164.2-10.621%
Season at home (15)76.884.7161.5-7.927%
Season away (14)76.890.3167.1-13.514%
Last 10 (10)75.184.9160.0-9.820%
Last 5 (5)72.686.6159.2-14.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)75.989.9165.7-14.09%
vs Similar (7)80.477.3157.7+3.171%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Brasilia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BrasiliaBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBrasilia
Date
Competition
Rio Claro
#15
W
78-60
78
60
+18
72avg 72
A09/01
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#13
W
77-65
77
65
+12
80avg 72
H12/01
NBB
Osasco
#18
W
96-64
96
64
+32
no box
A16/01
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
81-83 OT
81
83
-2
no box
A19/01
NBB
Pinheiros
#2
L
64-70
64
70
-6
53avg 72
A21/01
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#12
W
89-64
89
64
+25
84avg 72
H03/02
NBB
Vasco
#20
W
84-61
84
61
+23
88avg 72
H07/02
NBB
Minas
#3
L
91-92
91
92
-1
73avg 72
A17/02
NBB
Cruzeiro
#14
W
93-87
93
87
+6
88avg 72
A19/02
NBB
Botafogo
#16
W
79-73
79
73
+6
77avg 72
H06/03
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-20
29-6
13-17
18-17
7-15
19-12
34-22
17-16
25-23
22-14
21-12
28-15
16-16
14-25
21-18
21-13
17-21
12-18
30-18
5-13
23-19
23-22
15-10
28-13
25-12
16-20
20-16
23-13
20-31
28-26
16-26
27-9
24-26
20-23
24-22
25-16
16-10
20-23
23-18
20-22
155.1Avg total
83.2Scored
71.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)82.172.7154.8+9.472%
Season at home (13)83.569.2152.7+14.292%
Season away (16)81.175.5156.6+5.656%
Last 10 (10)83.271.9155.1+11.370%
Last 5 (5)87.275.4162.6+11.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)84.092.0176.0-8.00%
vs Similar (10)75.074.3149.3+0.740%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)85.571.1156.6+14.489%
This opponent (Cearense) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -2.9-2.9Q1: -0.2-0.2Q2Q2: -1.8-1.8Q2: +1.4+1.4Q3Q3: -1.9-1.9Q3: +3.8+3.8Q4Q4: -3.2-3.2Q4: +6.5+6.5
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -2.9-2.9Q1: -0.2-0.2Q2Q2: -1.8-1.8Q2: +1.4+1.4Q3Q3: -1.9-1.9Q3: +3.8+3.8Q4Q4: -3.2-3.2Q4: +6.5+6.5
CearenseBrasilia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
CearenseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Flamengo
#4
L
31-44
31
44
-13
H10/01
NBB
Vasco
#20
W
38-35
38
35
+3
H13/01
NBB
Botafogo
#16
W
50-43
50
43
+7
H16/01
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
L
33-37
33
37
-4
H20/01
NBB
Sao Jose
#9
L
41-50
41
50
-9
A04/02
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#6
L
37-42
37
42
-5
A07/02
NBB
Mogi
#8
L
32-46
32
46
-14
A09/02
NBB
Pato
#17
L
35-40
35
40
-5
H18/02
NBB
Bauru
#10
L
35-57
35
57
-22
A05/03
NBB
Pinheiros
#2
W
48-33
48
33
+15
A07/03
NBB
80.7Avg total
38.0Scored
42.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.544.282.8-5.727%-
Last 30 at home (16)38.143.281.4-5.125%-
Last 30 away (14)39.045.484.4-6.429%-
Last 10 (10)38.042.780.7-4.730%-
Last 5 (5)37.443.681.0-6.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)38.145.583.6-7.417%-
vs Similar (7)40.040.180.1-0.157%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Brasilia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BrasiliaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rio Claro
#15
W
47-26
47
26
+21
A09/01
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#13
L
26-27
26
27
-1
H12/01
NBB
Osasco
#18
W
47-37
47
37
+10
A16/01
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
30-41
30
41
-11
A19/01
NBB
Pinheiros
#2
L
29-39
29
39
-10
A21/01
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#12
W
46-41
46
41
+5
H03/02
NBB
Vasco
#20
W
41-32
41
32
+9
H07/02
NBB
Minas
#3
L
48-57
48
57
-9
A17/02
NBB
Cruzeiro
#14
L
44-49
44
49
-5
A19/02
NBB
Botafogo
#16
W
36-33
36
33
+3
H06/03
NBB
77.6Avg total
39.4Scored
38.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.837.277.0+2.660%-
Last 30 at home (13)41.635.477.0+6.285%-
Last 30 away (17)38.438.677.1-0.241%-
Last 10 (10)39.438.277.6+1.250%-
Last 5 (5)43.042.485.4+0.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)36.043.079.0-7.00%-
vs Similar (10)35.438.373.7-2.930%-
vs Weaker ◀ (19)42.336.478.7+5.979%-
This opponent (Cearense) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Cearensetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Cearense: 72.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.0 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.2 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.7 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.717.5
46.4%
52.2%35.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.07.4
29.6%
32.5%22.2
🏀 Free throws20.815.7
75.5%
72.8%15.7
They take 62.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Brasiliatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Brasilia: 80.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀38%
🏀🏀🏀43%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers30.2 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.5 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.5 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers29.015.1
52.1%
52.2%30.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.211.5
35.7%
32.5%34.5
🏀 Free throws21.215.5
73.1%
72.8%15.5
They take 61.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 53% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Cearense
LLWLLLLWLL
Brasilia
WWLWWLLWWW
#19
League position
#5
-12.7
Net rating
+8.1
84.0
Offensive rating
95.3
96.6
Defensive rating
87.3
45.6%
Effective FG%
52.9%
54.3%
Opp. effective FG%
46.8%
18.5%
Turnover %
16.8%
18.4%
Off. rebound %
17.1%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.35
29.6%
3-point %
35.7%
63.9%
Assist %
68.4%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence84.0 · 95.3Defence96.6 · 87.3Shooting45.6% · 52.9%3-point %29.6% · 35.7%Ball care18.5% · 16.8%Off. rebounds18.4% · 17.1%Free throws0.33 · 0.35Form (last 10/10)20% · 70%
■ Cearense   ■ Brasilia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Cearense wins
7
Brasilia wins
DateGameScore
04/12/25Brasilia v Cearense105-90
07/02/25Cearense v Brasilia62-84
05/11/24Brasilia v Cearense73-72
11/04/24Brasilia v Cearense69-68
29/12/23Cearense v Brasilia83-73
09/01/23Brasilia v Cearense80-82
19/10/22Cearense v Brasilia62-75
15/04/22Cearense v Brasilia77-65
11/01/22Brasilia v Cearense82-75
09/02/21Brasilia v Cearense87-67
Cearenselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/03/26APinheiros77-83
05/03/26ABauru70-107
18/02/26HPato64-59
09/02/26AMogi76-88
07/02/26ACorinthians Paulista76-96
04/02/26ASao Jose82-97
20/01/26HUnifacisa66-71
16/01/26HBotafogo86-82
13/01/26HVasco73-78
10/01/26HFlamengo81-88
Brasilialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/03/26HBotafogo79-73
19/02/26ACruzeiro93-87
17/02/26AMinas91-92
07/02/26HVasco84-61
03/02/26HUniao Corinthians89-64
21/01/26APinheiros64-70
19/01/26APaulistano81-83 OT
16/01/26AOsasco96-64
12/01/26HCaxias do Sul77-65
09/01/26ARio Claro78-60

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Cearense
NBB 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL21%
HomeLLWLW27%
AwayLLLLL14%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291514
Win %21%27%14%
Points / game76.876.876.8
Allowed / game87.484.790.3
Point differential-10.6-7.9-13.5
Avg total164.2161.5167.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+7%7%7%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (8)40% (5)33% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Brasilia
NBB 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW72%
HomeWWWWW92%
AwayWLLLW56%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291316
Win %72%92%56%
Points / game82.183.581.1
Allowed / game72.769.275.5
Point differential+9.4+14.2+5.6
Avg total154.8152.7156.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+48%62%38%
Close games (≤5 pts) won62% (8)75% (4)50% (4)
Overtime %7%0%12%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Pinheiros2924583%85.774.5+11.2
2 Franca2923679%89.275.4+13.8
3 Flamengo2822679%86.977.7+9.2
4 Minas2821775%87.082.2+4.7
5 Brasilia2921872%82.172.7+9.4
6 Corinthians Paulista2921872%84.078.0+6.0
7 Paulistano30181260%82.278.2+4.0
8 Sao Jose30181260%82.879.9+2.9
9 Bauru30181260%80.577.9+2.6
10 Uniao Corinthians29161355%79.480.9-1.4
11 Mogi30161453%75.670.0+5.6
12 Unifacisa29151452%80.980.1+0.8
13 Caxias do Sul29121741%72.677.1-4.5
14 Cruzeiro29111838%80.085.2-5.2
15 Rio Claro3092130%77.586.6-9.1
16 Pato2972224%73.579.8-6.2
17 Botafogo2962321%72.582.9-10.4
18 Cearense2962321%76.887.4-10.6
19 Osasco2942514%75.387.7-12.4
20 Vasco3042613%69.779.4-9.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Cearense14423849
Brasilia2415212181
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