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FMP Beograd vs Varese Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 27 Sep 2023
Tip-off: 13:30
Final 71-73
21-23 18-12 21-14 11-24
Position#41
Record-
FormWWWLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
vs
Varese 🏆
Position#23
Record-
FormWWLWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
EuropeChampions LeagueChampions League - Quarter-finals· Gloria Sports Arena
European cup2023
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FMP Beograd winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Varese winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

FMP BeogradLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBeograd
Date
Competition
Cedevita Olimpija
#4
W
102-96
102
96
+6
99avg 81
H06/05
ABA League
OKK Beograd
#3
W
95-91
95
91
+4
89avg 81
H09/05
Super League
Cedevita Olimpija
#4
L
79-97
79
97
-18
66avg 81
A13/05
ABA League
Spartak Subotica
#6
L
78-82
78
82
-4
63avg 81
A17/05
Super League
Zlatibor
#9
W
97-78
97
78
+19
90avg 81
A23/05
Super League
OKK Beograd
#3
W
84-82
84
82
+2
73avg 81
A31/05
Super League
Mega Basket
#5
W
75-72
75
72
+3
66avg 81
A04/06
Super League
Mega Basket
#5
W
96-70
96
70
+26
90avg 81
H07/06
Super League
Crvena zvezda
#1
L
70-94
70
94
-24
61avg 81
A09/06
Super League
Crvena zvezda
#1
L
72-82
72
82
-10
71avg 81
H11/06
Super League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-17
24-28
24-22
28-29
20-21
35-26
19-20
21-24
21-27
14-26
19-19
25-25
21-29
22-12
25-23
10-18
24-13
33-24
20-16
20-25
28-24
19-19
15-18
22-21
19-21
14-19
17-14
25-18
25-16
18-18
29-17
24-19
16-29
12-24
21-20
21-21
27-23
9-20
19-18
17-21
169.2Avg total
84.8Scored
84.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)84.884.4169.2+0.460%
Last 5 (5)79.480.0159.4-0.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)80.490.1170.6-9.729%
vs Similar (8)84.884.9169.6-0.150%
vs Weaker (14)92.084.2176.2+7.857%
VareseLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Pesaro
#10
W
110-99
110
99
+11
108avg 83
H11/03
Lega A
Sassari
#5
L
73-102
73
102
-29
68avg 83
A18/03
Lega A
Verona
#16
W
98-94
98
94
+4
97avg 83
H26/03
Lega A
Treviso
#13
W
97-95
97
95
+2
91avg 83
A02/04
Lega A
Reggiana
#14
L
81-85
81
85
-4
69avg 83
H08/04
Lega A
Trieste
#15
W
83-80
83
80
+3
72avg 83
A16/04
Lega A
Brindisi
#9
W
93-86
93
86
+7
93avg 83
H19/04
Lega A
Venezia
#6
L
81-92
81
92
-11
no box
A23/04
Lega A
Scafati
#11
W
95-81
95
81
+14
98avg 83
H30/04
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#2
L
82-98
82
98
-16
69avg 83
A07/05
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
34-23
28-36
26-21
22-19
21-27
21-24
4-32
27-19
15-27
28-22
30-27
25-18
28-21
20-30
24-22
25-22
14-29
26-20
15-17
26-19
17-24
21-19
23-22
22-15
20-27
25-24
30-12
18-23
18-23
18-19
17-21
28-29
32-16
14-21
23-20
26-24
24-23
15-20
22-27
21-28
180.5Avg total
89.3Scored
91.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)89.391.2180.5-1.960%
Last 5 (5)86.887.4174.2-0.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)85.297.2182.5-12.00%
vs Similar (15)88.189.1177.1-1.047%
vs Weaker (10)97.791.6189.3+6.190%

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +0.7+0.7Q1: -1.7-1.7Q2Q2: -1.6-1.6Q2: -1.9-1.9Q3Q3: +2.1+2.1Q3: -0.7-0.7Q4Q4: -0.8-0.8Q4: +2.4+2.4
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +0.7+0.7Q1: -1.7-1.7Q2Q2: -1.6-1.6Q2: -1.9-1.9Q3Q3: +2.1+2.1Q3: -0.7-0.7Q4Q4: -0.8-0.8Q4: +2.4+2.4
FMP BeogradVarese
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
FMP BeogradLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cedevita Olimpija
#4
W
50-45
50
45
+5
H06/05
ABA League
OKK Beograd
#3
W
55-47
55
47
+8
H09/05
Super League
Cedevita Olimpija
#4
L
35-53
35
53
-18
A13/05
ABA League
Spartak Subotica
#6
W
43-41
43
41
+2
A17/05
Super League
Zlatibor
#9
W
57-37
57
37
+20
A23/05
Super League
OKK Beograd
#3
W
47-43
47
43
+4
A31/05
Super League
Mega Basket
#5
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A04/06
Super League
Mega Basket
#5
W
43-34
43
34
+9
H07/06
Super League
Crvena zvezda
#1
L
28-53
28
53
-25
A09/06
Super League
Crvena zvezda
#1
L
36-43
36
43
-7
H11/06
Super League
86.3Avg total
42.7Scored
43.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.242.585.8+0.750%-
Last 30 at home (15)46.541.387.8+5.373%-
Last 30 away (15)39.943.883.7-3.927%-
Last 10 (10)42.743.686.3-0.960%-
Last 5 (5)37.442.680.0-5.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)41.645.687.1-4.043%-
vs Similar (8)41.245.086.2-3.838%-
vs Weaker (14)44.840.285.0+4.657%-
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pesaro
#10
W
62-59
62
59
+3
H11/03
Lega A
Sassari
#5
L
42-51
42
51
-9
A18/03
Lega A
Verona
#16
L
43-49
43
49
-6
H26/03
Lega A
Treviso
#13
L
48-51
48
51
-3
A02/04
Lega A
Reggiana
#14
L
40-49
40
49
-9
H08/04
Lega A
Trieste
#15
L
38-43
38
43
-5
A16/04
Lega A
Brindisi
#9
L
45-51
45
51
-6
H19/04
Lega A
Venezia
#6
L
36-42
36
42
-6
A23/04
Lega A
Scafati
#11
W
46-37
46
37
+9
H30/04
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#2
L
39-43
39
43
-4
A07/05
Lega A
91.4Avg total
43.9Scored
47.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.846.992.7-1.143%-
Last 30 at home (14)46.345.491.6+0.957%-
Last 30 away (16)45.348.293.6-2.931%-
Last 10 (10)43.947.591.4-3.620%-
Last 5 (5)40.843.284.0-2.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)40.850.291.0-9.50%-
vs Similar (15)46.144.490.5+1.760%-
vs Weaker (10)48.449.698.0-1.240%-
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
FMP Beogradtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

FMP Beograd: 83.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀25%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.8 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.7 pts a game · 25% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.1 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.5 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.922.9
54.7%
51.4%45.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.36.9
32.4%
34.9%20.7
🏀 Free throws23.017.1
74.3%
74.5%17.1
They take 63.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 88.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀41%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.4 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.3 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.5 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.5 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.018.2
53.5%
51.4%36.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.812.1
38.1%
34.9%36.3
🏀 Free throws19.915.5
77.9%
74.5%15.5
They take 65.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 27 Sep 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
FMP Beograd
LLWWWWLLWW
Varese
LWLWWLWWLW
#41
League position
#23
+0.0
Net rating
-1.9
108.3
Offensive rating
111.6
108.3
Defensive rating
113.5
52.6%
Effective FG%
55.2%
55.2%
Opp. effective FG%
52.7%
18.9%
Turnover %
16.7%
30.9%
Off. rebound %
24.2%
0.36
Free-throw rate
0.30
32.4%
3-point %
38.1%
59.7%
Assist %
63.4%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence108.3 · 111.6Defence108.3 · 113.5Shooting52.6% · 55.2%3-point %32.4% · 38.1%Ball care18.9% · 16.7%Off. rebounds30.9% · 24.2%Free throws0.36 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)60% · 60%
■ FMP Beograd   ■ Varese
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
FMP Beograd wins
0
Varese wins
No previous meetings.
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/06/23HCrvena zvezda72-82
09/06/23ACrvena zvezda70-94
07/06/23HMega Basket96-70
04/06/23AMega Basket75-72
31/05/23AOKK Beograd84-82
23/05/23AZlatibor97-78
17/05/23ASpartak Subotica78-82
13/05/23ACedevita Olimpija79-97
09/05/23HOKK Beograd95-91
06/05/23HCedevita Olimpija102-96
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/05/23AVirtus Bologna82-98
30/04/23HScafati95-81
23/04/23AVenezia81-92
19/04/23HBrindisi93-86
16/04/23ATrieste83-80
08/04/23HReggiana81-85
02/04/23ATreviso97-95
26/03/23HVerona98-94
18/03/23ASassari73-102
11/03/23HPesaro110-99

📊 11. Overall Statistics

FMP Beograd
Champions League 2023
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Varese
Champions League 2023
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Benfica110100%122.062.0+60.0
2 Nes Ziona110100%92.056.0+36.0
3 Obradoiro CAB110100%90.056.0+34.0
4 Bakken Bears110100%103.079.0+24.0
5 Legia110100%70.059.0+11.0
6 AEK Larnaca110100%74.066.0+8.0
7 Strasbourg110100%83.078.0+5.0
8 Cholet110100%76.072.0+4.0
9 Norrkoping110100%82.078.0+4.0
10 Fribourg Olympic21150%58.060.5-2.5
11 Antwerp Giants1010%72.076.0-4.0
12 BC Kalev/Cramo1010%78.082.0-4.0
13 Jonava1010%78.083.0-5.0
14 Caledonia Gladiators1010%51.057.0-6.0
15 Levice1010%66.074.0-8.0
16 Peja1010%79.0103.0-24.0
17 Mornar Bar1010%56.090.0-34.0
18 Karhu Basket1010%56.092.0-36.0
19 TSU1010%62.0122.0-60.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
FMP Beograd2118211171
Varese2312142473
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