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Varese vs Pesaro Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 11 Mar 2023
Tip-off: 19:30
Final 110-99
34-23 28-36 26-21 22-19
Position#4
Record11-9
FormWLLLW
Points / game91.7
Allowed / game90.5
Varese 🏆
Italy
vs
Position#10
Record11-9
FormWLWLL
Points / game85.2
Allowed / game85.5
ItalyLega ARound 21
Domestic2022-23
Meetings · Varese v Pesaro
11 Feb 2024
VAR91
PES80
11 Mar 2023
VAR110
PES99
20 Mar 2022
VAR76
PES87
14 Mar 2021
VAR81
PES68
15 Dec 2019
VAR103
PES87
28 Apr 2019
VAR81
PES75
31 Mar 2018
VAR88
PES68
12 Mar 2017
VAR93
PES78
18 Oct 2015
VAR88
PES81
01 Feb 2015
VAR70
PES80
01 Dec 2013
VAR91
PES77
28 Apr 2013
VAR85
PES70
14 Apr 2012
VAR63
PES67
17 Oct 2010
VAR87
PES78
24 Jan 2010
VAR89
PES86
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Varese winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pesaro winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
84-96
84
96
-12
61avg 79
A26/12
Lega A
Tortona
#3
L
88-89
88
89
-1
76avg 79
H02/01
Lega A
Brindisi
#9
W
104-90
104
90
+14
103avg 79
A08/01
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#12
W
106-79
106
79
+27
109avg 79
H15/01
Lega A
Trento
#7
L
80-90
80
90
-10
68avg 79
A22/01
Lega A
Brescia
#8
W
80-72
80
72
+8
77avg 79
H28/01
Lega A
Tortona
#3
L
91-103
91
103
-12
84avg 79
A05/02
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
75-87
75
87
-12
68avg 79
H12/02
Lega A
Pesaro
#3
L
80-84
80
84
-4
no box
A15/02
Italian Cup
Basket Napoli
#12
W
101-93
101
93
+8
92avg 79
A05/03
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-36
11-21
28-25
24-14
17-18
27-24
29-20
15-27
26-27
29-17
23-24
26-22
24-20
22-20
27-20
33-19
16-28
25-23
19-23
20-16
15-16
29-22
27-17
9-17
23-20
31-34
20-31
17-18
22-21
23-24
18-23
12-19
12-29
23-15
29-23
16-17
28-29
28-33
25-16
20-15
177.2Avg total
88.9Scored
88.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)91.790.5182.2+1.255%
Season at home (10)91.188.4179.5+2.760%
Season away (10)92.292.6184.8-0.450%
Last 10 (10)88.988.3177.2+0.640%
Last 5 (5)85.487.8173.2-2.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)84.696.8181.4-12.112%
vs Similar (15)88.088.7176.7-0.747%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)98.291.3189.5+6.883%
This opponent (Pesaro) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PesaroItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPesaro
Date
Competition
Reggiana
#14
L
76-95
76
95
-19
67avg 74
A30/12
Lega A
Treviso
#13
W
101-72
101
72
+29
no box
H08/01
Lega A
Scafati
#11
W
81-69
81
69
+12
76avg 74
A15/01
Lega A
Verona
#16
W
76-73
76
73
+3
64avg 74
H21/01
Lega A
Sassari
#5
L
74-110
74
110
-36
60avg 74
A29/01
Lega A
Reggiana
#14
W
85-74
85
74
+11
74avg 74
H05/02
Lega A
Venezia
#6
L
77-93
77
93
-16
65avg 74
A12/02
Lega A
Varese
#7
W
84-80
84
80
+4
no box
H15/02
Italian Cup
Brescia
#1
L
57-74
57
74
-17
no box
A18/02
Italian Cup
Brindisi
#9
L
70-100
70
100
-30
50avg 74
H05/03
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-16
21-26
23-25
14-28
21-27
20-13
32-14
28-18
15-13
26-18
11-24
29-14
18-20
23-19
10-20
25-14
21-29
15-32
19-28
19-21
24-15
15-21
18-19
28-19
7-28
30-20
23-29
17-16
29-12
15-23
23-29
17-16
16-14
6-22
14-15
21-23
15-15
10-26
24-27
21-32
162.1Avg total
78.1Scored
84.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)85.285.5170.7-0.255%
Season at home (10)85.484.7170.1+0.760%
Season away (10)85.086.2171.2-1.250%
Last 10 (10)78.184.0162.1-5.950%
Last 5 (5)74.684.2158.8-9.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)77.186.2163.3-9.229%
vs Similar (12)86.881.5168.2+5.275%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Varese) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -4.0-4.0Q1: -0.5-0.5Q2Q2: +1.5+1.5Q2: -3.9-3.9Q3Q3: +2.3+2.3Q3: -3.3-3.3Q4Q4: +0.8+0.8Q4: +1.8+1.8
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -4.0-4.0Q1: -0.5-0.5Q2Q2: +1.5+1.5Q2: -3.9-3.9Q3Q3: +2.3+2.3Q3: -3.3-3.3Q4Q4: +0.8+0.8Q4: +1.8+1.8
VaresePesaro
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
32-57
32
57
-25
A26/12
Lega A
Tortona
#3
W
44-42
44
42
+2
H02/01
Lega A
Brindisi
#9
W
55-44
55
44
+11
A08/01
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#12
W
46-40
46
40
+6
H15/01
Lega A
Trento
#7
L
41-51
41
51
-10
A22/01
Lega A
Brescia
#8
W
44-38
44
38
+6
H28/01
Lega A
Tortona
#3
D
54-54
54
54
+0
A05/02
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
D
45-45
45
45
+0
H12/02
Lega A
Pesaro
#3
L
35-44
35
44
-9
A15/02
Italian Cup
Basket Napoli
#12
L
56-62
56
62
-6
A05/03
Lega A
92.9Avg total
45.2Scored
47.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.846.190.9-1.347%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.143.587.6+0.547%-
Last 30 away (15)45.548.794.3-3.247%-
Last 10 (10)45.247.792.9-2.540%-
Last 5 (5)46.848.695.4-1.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)41.049.590.5-8.525%-
vs Similar (15)45.943.389.2+2.560%-
vs Weaker ◀ (6)48.849.097.8-0.250%-
This opponent (Pesaro) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PesaroLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Reggiana
#14
L
39-42
39
42
-3
A30/12
Lega A
Treviso
#13
W
41-40
41
40
+1
H08/01
Lega A
Scafati
#11
W
41-31
41
31
+10
A15/01
Lega A
Verona
#16
W
41-39
41
39
+2
H21/01
Lega A
Sassari
#5
L
36-61
36
61
-25
A29/01
Lega A
Reggiana
#14
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H05/02
Lega A
Venezia
#6
L
37-48
37
48
-11
A12/02
Lega A
Varese
#7
W
44-35
44
35
+9
H15/02
Italian Cup
Brescia
#1
L
22-36
22
36
-14
A18/02
Italian Cup
Brindisi
#9
L
25-41
25
41
-16
H05/03
Lega A
77.4Avg total
36.5Scored
40.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.040.780.8-0.753%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.340.181.5+1.260%-
Last 30 away (15)38.741.380.1-2.647%-
Last 10 (10)36.540.977.4-4.450%-
Last 5 (5)33.439.272.6-5.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)38.441.880.2-3.435%-
vs Similar (12)42.039.781.7+2.375%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Varese) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 88.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀39%
🏀🏀🏀43%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.0 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.4 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.5 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.8 points a game
47%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.217.5
51.2%
51.3%35.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.112.8
37.5%
36.4%38.4
🏀 Free throws21.815.5
71.1%
76.1%15.5
They take 68.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Pesarotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pesaro: 82.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.8 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.4 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.8 points a game
47%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.417.9
49.2%
51.3%35.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.610.8
37.8%
36.4%32.4
🏀 Free throws19.214.0
72.9%
76.1%14.0
They take 65.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Mar 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Varese
WLLLWLWWLL
Pesaro
LLWLWLWWWL
#4
League position
#10
-0.6
Net rating
-4.4
109.9
Offensive rating
110.4
110.6
Defensive rating
114.8
53.7%
Effective FG%
52.5%
52.4%
Opp. effective FG%
58.7%
15.7%
Turnover %
15.5%
24.3%
Off. rebound %
26.3%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.30
37.5%
3-point %
37.8%
61.7%
Assist %
56.8%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence109.9 · 110.4Defence110.6 · 114.8Shooting53.7% · 52.5%3-point %37.5% · 37.8%Ball care15.7% · 15.5%Off. rebounds24.3% · 26.3%Free throws0.32 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)40% · 50%
■ Varese   ■ Pesaro
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Varese wins
5
Pesaro wins
DateGameScore
15/02/23Pesaro v Varese84-80
11/12/22Pesaro v Varese101-93
20/03/22Varese v Pesaro76-87
05/12/21Pesaro v Varese94-75
14/03/21Varese v Pesaro81-68
08/11/20Pesaro v Varese85-78
15/12/19Varese v Pesaro103-87
28/04/19Varese v Pesaro81-75
30/12/18Pesaro v Varese78-98
31/03/18Varese v Pesaro88-68
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/03/23ABasket Napoli101-93
15/02/23APesaro80-84
12/02/23HOlimpia Milano75-87
05/02/23ATortona91-103
28/01/23HBrescia80-72
22/01/23ATrento80-90
15/01/23HBasket Napoli106-79
08/01/23ABrindisi104-90
02/01/23HTortona88-89
26/12/22AOlimpia Milano84-96
Pesarolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/03/23HBrindisi70-100
18/02/23ABrescia57-74
15/02/23HVarese84-80
12/02/23AVenezia77-93
05/02/23HReggiana85-74
29/01/23ASassari74-110
21/01/23HVerona76-73
15/01/23AScafati81-69
08/01/23HTreviso101-72
30/12/22AReggiana76-95

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Varese
Lega A 2022-23
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW55%
HomeWLWWL60%
AwayLWLLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games201010
Win %55%60%50%
Points / game91.791.192.2
Allowed / game90.588.492.6
Point differential+1.1+2.7-0.4
Avg total182.2179.5184.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+10%10%10%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)60% (5)0% (1)
Overtime %10%20%0%
Pesaro
Lega A 2022-23
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL55%
HomeLWWWL60%
AwayWLWLL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games201010
Win %55%60%50%
Points / game85.285.485.0
Allowed / game85.584.786.2
Point differential-0.2+0.7-1.2
Avg total170.7170.1171.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%20%30%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)50% (4)67% (3)
Overtime %10%20%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Olimpia Milano2016480%82.372.5+9.8
2 Virtus Bologna2016480%84.377.5+6.8
3 Tortona2014670%82.777.3+5.3
4 Sassari2011955%85.781.0+4.7
5 Varese2011955%91.790.5+1.1
6 Brindisi2011955%82.081.8+0.1
7 Pesaro2011955%85.285.5-0.2
8 Trento2011955%75.076.7-1.6
9 Venezia2091145%82.580.0+2.5
10 Trieste2091145%79.082.0-3.0
11 Treviso2081240%80.085.2-5.2
12 Brescia2071335%82.883.5-0.8
13 Scafati2071335%76.878.2-1.4
14 Basket Napoli2071335%77.884.4-6.5
15 Verona2071335%78.286.5-8.3
16 Reggiana2051525%75.078.1-3.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Varese34282622110
Pesaro2336211999
← all games of the day
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