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Lusitania vs Esgueira Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 16 Dec 2023
Tip-off: 15:00
Final 89-83
16-21 32-14 21-25 20-23
Position#12
Record0-8
FormLLLLL
Points / game71.1
Allowed / game87.8
vs
Position#9
Record1-8
FormLWLLW
Points / game71.6
Allowed / game88.2
PortugalLPBRound 10· Pavilhão Municipal de Angra do Heroísmo
Other2023-24
Meetings · Lusitania v Esgueira
16 Dec 2023
LUSI89
ESGU83
14 Jan 2023
LUSI85
ESGU73
29 Oct 2022
LUSI84
ESGU88
07 Mar 2021
LUSI79
ESGU75
05 Oct 2019
LUSI59
ESGU91
24 Nov 2018
LUSI93
ESGU92
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Lusitania winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Esgueira winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

LusitaniaPortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLusitania
Date
Competition
Galomar
#10
L
80-94
80
94
-14
71avg 56
A30/09
LPB
Ovarense
#5
L
82-85
82
85
-3
81avg 56
H07/10
LPB
Vitoria
#7
L
82-90
82
90
-8
62avg 56
A14/10
Taca da Liga
Sporting CP
#4
L
83-107
83
107
-24
75avg 56
A21/10
LPB
Vitoria
#7
L
70-75
70
75
-5
58avg 56
A28/10
LPB
CD Povoa
#6
L
73-100
73
100
-27
58avg 56
H04/11
LPB
FC Porto
#4
L
70-101
70
101
-31
59avg 56
H11/11
Taca da Liga
Portimonense
#11
L
64-67
64
67
-3
57avg 56
A18/11
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
51-94
51
94
-43
36avg 56
A02/12
LPB
Maia
#8
L
76-82
76
82
-6
62avg 56
H09/12
Taca de Portugal
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-28
14-23
24-23
25-20
22-18
21-18
12-28
27-21
20-22
22-21
15-28
25-19
23-23
20-27
24-25
16-32
18-17
24-20
12-15
16-23
27-22
20-29
14-23
12-26
21-29
17-30
15-28
17-14
19-19
16-16
15-9
14-23
20-21
16-27
7-22
8-24
22-16
14-18
22-26
18-22
162.6Avg total
73.1Scored
89.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)71.187.8158.9-16.60%
Season at home (3)73.788.3162.0-14.70%
Season away (5)69.687.4157.0-17.80%
Last 10 (10)73.189.5162.6-16.40%
Last 5 (5)66.888.8155.6-22.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)74.288.4162.6-14.216%
vs Similar (4)75.273.5148.8+1.850%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Esgueira) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
EsgueiraPortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormEsgueira
Date
Competition
Benfica
#1
L
70-110
70
110
-40
62avg 63
A07/10
LPB
Galomar
#8
W
87-74
87
74
+13
83avg 63
H14/10
Taca da Liga
Vitoria
#7
L
66-96
66
96
-30
49avg 63
H21/10
LPB
FC Porto
#2
L
82-106
82
106
-24
66avg 63
A27/10
LPB
Imortal
#8
L
63-69
63
69
-6
50avg 63
A05/11
LPB
CD Povoa
#10
L
71-79
71
79
-8
57avg 63
A11/11
Taca da Liga
Galomar
#10
W
84-74
84
74
+10
71avg 63
H18/11
LPB
Ovarense
#5
L
71-75
71
75
-4
56avg 63
A25/11
LPB
Sporting CP
#4
L
68-105
68
105
-37
56avg 63
H02/12
LPB
Vitoria
#13
W
78-66
78
66
+12
79avg 63
H09/12
Taca de Portugal
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-29
25-13
10-38
20-30
22-22
24-14
16-23
25-15
17-17
13-23
22-30
14-26
15-23
21-28
15-27
31-28
15-13
13-14
13-22
22-20
21-16
20-26
13-24
17-13
28-21
24-16
16-16
16-21
20-15
15-28
19-18
17-14
18-24
9-33
21-27
20-21
23-29
22-7
13-16
20-14
159.4Avg total
74.0Scored
85.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)71.688.2159.8-16.711%
Season at home (4)70.087.2157.2-17.225%
Season away (5)72.889.0161.8-16.20%
Last 10 (10)74.085.4159.4-11.430%
Last 5 (5)74.479.8154.2-5.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)66.193.6159.7-27.40%
vs Similar (16)79.181.6160.7-2.638%
vs Weaker ◀ (3)83.378.3161.7+5.0100%
This opponent (Lusitania) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -0.6-0.6Q1: -1.5-1.5Q2Q2: -4.5-4.5Q2: -1.6-1.6Q3Q3: -6.7-6.7Q3: -8.3-8.3Q4Q4: -4.6-4.6Q4: +0.0+0.0
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -0.6-0.6Q1: -1.5-1.5Q2Q2: -4.5-4.5Q2: -1.6-1.6Q3Q3: -6.7-6.7Q3: -8.3-8.3Q4Q4: -4.6-4.6Q4: +0.0+0.0
LusitaniaEsgueira
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
LusitaniaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Galomar
#10
L
31-51
31
51
-20
A30/09
LPB
Ovarense
#5
W
43-36
43
36
+7
H07/10
LPB
Vitoria
#7
L
42-43
42
43
-1
A14/10
Taca da Liga
Sporting CP
#4
L
43-50
43
50
-7
A21/10
LPB
Vitoria
#7
W
42-37
42
37
+5
A28/10
LPB
CD Povoa
#6
L
47-51
47
51
-4
H04/11
LPB
FC Porto
#4
L
38-59
38
59
-21
H11/11
Taca da Liga
Portimonense
#11
D
35-35
35
35
+0
A18/11
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
36-48
36
48
-12
A02/12
LPB
Maia
#8
W
36-34
36
34
+2
H09/12
Taca de Portugal
83.7Avg total
39.3Scored
44.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.542.179.6-4.633%-
Last 30 at home (16)39.541.881.3-2.350%-
Last 30 away (14)35.142.477.6-7.314%-
Last 10 (10)39.344.483.7-5.130%-
Last 5 (5)38.445.483.8-7.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)37.943.681.5-5.632%-
vs Similar (4)35.035.070.0+0.025%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Esgueira) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
EsgueiraLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Benfica
#1
L
40-42
40
42
-2
A07/10
LPB
Galomar
#8
W
46-36
46
36
+10
H14/10
Taca da Liga
Vitoria
#7
L
30-40
30
40
-10
H21/10
LPB
FC Porto
#2
L
36-51
36
51
-15
A27/10
LPB
Imortal
#8
W
28-27
28
27
+1
A05/11
LPB
CD Povoa
#10
L
41-42
41
42
-1
A11/11
Taca da Liga
Galomar
#10
W
52-37
52
37
+15
H18/11
LPB
Ovarense
#5
L
35-43
35
43
-8
A25/11
LPB
Sporting CP
#4
L
27-57
27
57
-30
H02/12
LPB
Vitoria
#13
W
45-36
45
36
+9
H09/12
Taca de Portugal
79.1Avg total
38.0Scored
41.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.443.181.5-4.627%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.442.784.1-1.347%-
Last 30 away (15)35.543.578.9-8.07%-
Last 10 (10)38.041.179.1-3.140%-
Last 5 (5)40.043.083.0-3.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)32.345.077.3-12.70%-
vs Similar (16)40.841.482.2-0.738%-
vs Weaker ◀ (3)44.042.386.3+1.733%-
This opponent (Lusitania) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Lusitaniatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Lusitania: 71.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.0 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.8 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.1 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.2 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.918.5
47.6%
51.0%37.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.27.6
31.4%
33.5%22.8
🏀 Free throws17.112.1
70.8%
69.3%12.1
They take 63.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Esgueiratheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Esgueira: 73.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀59%
🏀🏀🏀24%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.0 pts a game · 59% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.0 pts a game · 24% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.5 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.2 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.221.5
50.9%
51.0%43.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.76.0
27.6%
33.5%18.0
🏀 Free throws19.612.5
63.8%
69.3%12.5
They take 63.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 Dec 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Lusitania
LLLLLLLLLL
Esgueira
WLLWLLLLWL
#12
League position
#9
-22.1
Net rating
-14.7
90.2
Offensive rating
97.3
112.3
Defensive rating
112.0
47.4%
Effective FG%
47.7%
55.5%
Opp. effective FG%
56.1%
22.7%
Turnover %
17.5%
23.9%
Off. rebound %
26.7%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.31
31.4%
3-point %
27.6%
55.6%
Assist %
51.6%
0%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence90.2 · 97.3Defence112.3 · 112.0Shooting47.4% · 47.7%3-point %31.4% · 27.6%Ball care22.7% · 17.5%Off. rebounds23.9% · 26.7%Free throws0.27 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)0% · 30%
■ Lusitania   ■ Esgueira
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Lusitania wins
2
Esgueira wins
DateGameScore
21/01/23Esgueira v Lusitania84-92
14/01/23Lusitania v Esgueira85-73
29/10/22Lusitania v Esgueira84-88
07/03/21Lusitania v Esgueira79-75
05/12/20Esgueira v Lusitania65-80
28/12/19Esgueira v Lusitania70-73
05/10/19Lusitania v Esgueira59-91
02/03/19Esgueira v Lusitania77-85
24/11/18Lusitania v Esgueira93-92
Lusitanialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/12/23HMaia76-82
02/12/23ABenfica51-94
18/11/23APortimonense64-67
11/11/23HFC Porto70-101
04/11/23HCD Povoa73-100
28/10/23AVitoria70-75
21/10/23ASporting CP83-107
14/10/23AVitoria82-90
07/10/23HOvarense82-85
30/09/23AGalomar80-94
Esgueiralast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/12/23HVitoria78-66
02/12/23HSporting CP68-105
25/11/23AOvarense71-75
18/11/23HGalomar84-74
11/11/23ACD Povoa71-79
05/11/23AImortal63-69
27/10/23AFC Porto82-106
21/10/23HVitoria66-96
14/10/23HGalomar87-74
07/10/23ABenfica70-110

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Lusitania
LPB 2023-24
Recent: 0 Wins / 10 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL0%
HomeLLL0%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games835
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game71.173.769.6
Allowed / game87.888.387.4
Point differential-16.6-14.7-17.8
Avg total158.9162.0157.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (1)0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Esgueira
LPB 2023-24
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL11%
HomeLLWL25%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games945
Win %11%25%0%
Points / game71.670.072.8
Allowed / game88.287.289.0
Point differential-16.7-17.2-16.2
Avg total159.8157.2161.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%25%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 FC Porto880100%88.971.8+17.1
2 Sporting CP98189%95.281.3+13.9
3 Oliveirense76186%82.172.3+9.9
4 Benfica96367%88.867.9+20.9
5 Portimonense95456%73.176.1-3.0
6 CD Povoa94544%83.386.3-3.0
7 Vitoria94544%77.481.6-4.1
8 Ovarense94544%74.879.2-4.4
9 Galomar93633%76.978.9-2.0
10 Imortal93633%71.280.9-9.7
11 Esgueira91811%71.688.2-16.7
12 Lusitania8080%71.187.8-16.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Lusitania1632212089
Esgueira2114252383
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