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Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets Prediction & Stats

Date: Tue 17 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:30
Projected 117-119
Projected total 236.5
Scheduled
Position#15
Record7-6
FormLWWWW
Points / game118.7
Allowed / game119.8
Miami Heat
USA
Vs
43%
57%
■ MIA 43%■ HOU 57%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.0/10
Below normal
3.5/10
Below normal
Houston Rockets
USA
Position#4
Record10-3
FormLLWWW
Points / game116.2
Allowed / game107.4
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Miami Heat v Houston Rockets
16 Nov 2026
MIA v HOU
upcoming
28 Feb 2026
MIA115
HOU105
21 Mar 2025
MIA98
HOU102
08 Jan 2024
MIA120
HOU113
10 Feb 2023
MIA97
HOU95
07 Mar 2022
MIA123
HOU106
19 Apr 2021
MIA113
HOU91
03 Nov 2019
MIA129
HOU100
20 Dec 2018
MIA101
HOU99
07 Feb 2018
MIA101
HOU109
17 Jan 2017
MIA109
HOU103
01 Nov 2015
MIA109
HOU89
04 Nov 2014
MIA91
HOU108
16 Mar 2014
MIA113
HOU104
06 Feb 2013
MIA114
HOU108
22 Apr 2012
MIA97
HOU88
27 Mar 2011
MIA125
HOU119
09 Feb 2010
MIA99
HOU66
24 Nov 2008
MIA98
HOU107
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Miami Heat host Houston Rockets on 16 November 2026 in the NBA, with the Rockets the clear favourite as the model gives them a 57% chance of victory against the Heat's 43% chance. The Heat, 7-6 overall, average 118.7 points and allow 119.8, sit 15th in the league; at home they are 3-3, scoring 123.5 and conceding 122.5, and have won four of their last five games, including 137-117 over Detroit and 133-121 over Cleveland. The Rockets, 10-3 overall, average 116.2 points and allow 107.4, rank fourth; on the road they are 3-2, scoring 115.4 and conceding 108.4, and have won three of their last five, with recent home wins over Utah, Golden State and Denver. In the series the Heat have won eight of ten meetings, but Houston's last encounter ended 123-122 in Houston's favour. Pythia projects a 117-119 score, 236.5 total points and a 6% chance of overtime. The Rockets' 57% win probability and the projected 119 points suggest a tight contest that could swing on a single play.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat win
43.3%fair 2.31
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Houston Rockets win
56.7%fair 1.76
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 15 Nov 06:59 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Dallas Mavericks
#14
L
109-113
109
113
-4
96avg 112
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
W
129-117
129
117
+12
131avg 112
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
W
145-125
145
125
+20
148avg 112
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#2
L
117-138
117
138
-21
108avg 112
A03/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#25
W
117-116 OT
117
116
+1
112avg 112
A05/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
100-120
100
120
-20
90avg 112
A06/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
W
114-108
114
108
+6
104avg 112
A09/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
115-109
115
109
+6
99avg 112
A11/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#17
W
133-121
133
121
+12
136avg 112
H14/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#9
W
137-117
137
117
+20
139avg 112
H15/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-23
25-30
32-30
25-30
34-25
35-31
28-29
32-32
36-42
32-19
35-27
42-37
30-37
42-42
21-32
24-27
33-24
19-43
26-20
29-20
29-26
24-27
23-38
24-29
34-30
34-29
23-22
23-27
29-25
35-29
28-18
23-37
29-27
25-30
38-34
41-30
37-39
31-21
35-26
34-31
240.0Avg total
121.6Scored
118.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)118.7119.8238.5-1.254%
Season at home (6)123.5122.5246.0+1.050%
Season away (7)114.6117.6232.1-3.057%
Last 10 (10)121.6118.4240.0+3.270%
Last 5 (5)119.8115.0234.8+4.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)115.9131.0246.9-15.114%
vs Similar (15)122.1122.9245.1-0.840%
vs Weaker (8)122.2117.6239.9+4.675%
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Houston RocketsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRockets
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#13
W
120-110
120
110
+10
126avg 106
H27/10
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
W
132-100
132
100
+32
127avg 106
A29/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#14
L
111-116
111
116
-5
98avg 106
A31/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#12
W
119-98
119
98
+21
110avg 106
H01/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
109-93
109
93
+16
109avg 106
H03/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
107-117
107
117
-10
97avg 106
H05/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#18
L
99-102
99
102
-3
81avg 106
A08/11
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#10
W
110-100
110
100
+10
107avg 106
H10/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
115-108
115
108
+7
108avg 106
H12/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
125-118
125
118
+7
117avg 106
H14/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-35
31-31
28-19
29-25
23-21
34-14
38-34
37-31
20-27
31-17
33-32
27-40
35-26
27-25
30-24
27-23
29-29
28-21
25-23
27-20
30-33
27-24
27-25
23-35
23-35
24-12
28-29
24-26
32-24
22-16
23-28
33-32
35-20
21-31
29-28
30-29
27-27
36-26
29-36
33-29
220.9Avg total
114.7Scored
106.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)116.2107.4223.5+8.877%
Season at home (8)116.6106.8223.4+9.988%
Season away (5)115.4108.4223.8+7.060%
Last 10 (10)114.7106.2220.9+8.570%
Last 5 (5)111.2109.0220.2+2.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)114.0110.0224.0+4.0100%
vs Similar (12)106.5105.2211.7+1.342%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)120.8107.4228.2+13.588%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%5%8%11%1%1901%1952%2003%2054%2106%2158%22010%22510%23011%23510%2409%2457%2506%2554%2603%2652%2701%2751%2800%2850%2900%295
1%1953%2056%21510%22511%2359%2456%2553%2651%2750%2850%295
Pythia expects about 237 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 235-239 (11%).
Over/Under 222
Over 222
78.1%
Under 222
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 227
Over 227
69.0%
Under 227
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 232
Over 232
58.6%
Under 232
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Miami Heat total 110.5
Over 110.5
70.6%
Under 110.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Miami Heat total 114.5
Over 114.5
58.1%
Under 114.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Miami Heat total 118.5
Over 118.5
44.9%
Under 118.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Houston Rockets total 108.5
Over 108.5
81.9%
Under 108.5
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Houston Rockets total 112.5
Over 112.5
71.7%
Under 112.5
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Houston Rockets total 116.5
Over 116.5
59.4%
Under 116.5
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%4%7%9%0%-391%-361%-331%-302%-273%-244%-215%-186%-157%-128%-99%-68%-35%+08%+37%+66%+95%+124%+153%+182%+211%+241%+270%+300%+33
1%-361%-303%-245%-187%-129%-65%+07%+65%+123%+181%+240%+30
Margin from Miami Heat's side (positive = Miami Heat win). Pythia's expected margin is -2.2; Miami Heat win by 1+ in 38% of simulations.
Spread Miami Heat -3
MIA -3
36.9%
HOU +3
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
MIA
No market prices yet.
HOU
No market prices yet.
Spread Miami Heat 0
MIA 0
43.3%
HOU 0
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
MIA
No market prices yet.
HOU
No market prices yet.
Spread Miami Heat +3
MIA +3
49.6%
HOU -3
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
MIA
No market prices yet.
HOU
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +2.0+2.0Q1: +0.9+0.9Q2Q2: +0.1+0.1Q2: +6.4+6.4Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: +1.2+1.2Q4Q4: -0.3-0.3Q4: +0.0+0.0
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +2.0+2.0Q1: +0.9+0.9Q2Q2: +0.1+0.1Q2: +6.4+6.4Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: +1.2+1.2Q4Q4: -0.3-0.3Q4: +0.0+0.0
Miami HeatHouston Rockets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dallas Mavericks
#14
L
52-53
52
53
-1
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
W
69-56
69
56
+13
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
W
68-61
68
61
+7
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#2
L
72-79
72
79
-7
A03/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#25
L
52-67
52
67
-15
A05/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
D
53-53
53
53
+0
A06/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
W
68-59
68
59
+9
A09/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
64-54
64
54
+10
A11/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#17
L
54-57
54
57
-3
H14/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#9
W
68-60
68
60
+8
H15/11
NBA
121.9Avg total
62.0Scored
59.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.762.7123.4-2.040%-
Last 30 at home (14)60.962.9123.9-2.043%-
Last 30 away (16)60.462.5122.9-2.138%-
Last 10 (10)62.059.9121.9+2.150%-
Last 5 (5)61.456.6118.0+4.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)60.068.9128.9-8.914%-
vs Similar (15)58.360.9119.3-2.640%-
vs Weaker (8)65.660.6126.2+5.062%-
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Houston RocketsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#13
L
63-66
63
66
-3
H27/10
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
W
57-35
57
35
+22
A29/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#14
W
51-44
51
44
+7
A31/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#12
W
62-51
62
51
+11
H01/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
57-50
57
50
+7
H03/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
D
57-57
57
57
+0
H05/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#18
D
47-47
47
47
+0
A08/11
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#10
W
54-40
54
40
+14
H10/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
56-51
56
51
+5
H12/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
63-53
63
53
+10
H14/11
NBA
106.1Avg total
56.7Scored
49.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.350.4107.8+6.970%-
Last 30 at home (17)59.951.7111.6+8.276%-
Last 30 away (13)53.948.8102.7+5.262%-
Last 10 (10)56.749.4106.1+7.370%-
Last 5 (5)55.449.6105.0+5.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)61.059.0120.0+2.0100%-
vs Similar (12)53.053.1106.1-0.142%-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)60.248.1108.2+12.188%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 118.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.2 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.6 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.8 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.229.6
55.6%
54.0%59.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.213.2
33.7%
35.1%39.6
🏀 Free throws26.519.8
74.7%
77.3%19.8
They take 92.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 39.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Houston Rocketstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Houston Rockets: 115.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.6 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.1 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws21.3 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.429.3
53.9%
54.0%58.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.011.7
35.5%
35.1%35.1
🏀 Free throws26.321.3
81.0%
77.3%21.3
They take 87.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 17 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WWWWLWLWWL
Houston Rockets
WWWLLWWLWW
#15
League position
#4
-0.8
Net rating
+4.5
111.8
Offensive rating
115.9
112.5
Defensive rating
111.4
53.5%
Effective FG%
53.6%
55.6%
Opp. effective FG%
54.1%
11.4%
Turnover %
13.9%
19.0%
Off. rebound %
32.7%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.30
33.7%
3-point %
35.5%
66.4%
Assist %
63.2%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence111.8 · 115.9Defence112.5 · 111.4Shooting53.5% · 53.6%3-point %33.7% · 35.5%Ball care11.4% · 13.9%Off. rebounds19.0% · 32.7%Free throws0.29 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)70% · 70%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Houston Rockets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
Miami Heat wins
2
Houston Rockets wins
DateGameScore
22/03/26Houston Rockets v Miami Heat123-122
28/02/26Miami Heat v Houston Rockets115-105
22/03/25Miami Heat v Houston Rockets98-102
30/12/24Houston Rockets v Miami Heat100-104
06/04/24Houston Rockets v Miami Heat104-119
09/01/24Miami Heat v Houston Rockets120-113
11/02/23Miami Heat v Houston Rockets97-95
16/12/22Houston Rockets v Miami Heat108-111
08/03/22Miami Heat v Houston Rockets123-106
01/01/22Houston Rockets v Miami Heat110-120
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HDetroit Pistons137-117
14/11/26HCleveland Cavaliers133-121
11/11/26AUtah Jazz115-109
09/11/26ASacramento Kings114-108
06/11/26AGolden State Warriors100-120
05/11/26ALos Angeles Clippers117-116 OT
03/11/26ALos Angeles Lakers117-138
31/10/26HIndiana Pacers145-125
28/10/26AAtlanta Hawks129-117
26/10/26HDallas Mavericks109-113
Houston Rocketslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HUtah Jazz125-118
12/11/26HGolden State Warriors115-108
10/11/26HDenver Nuggets110-100
08/11/26APhoenix Suns99-102
05/11/26HMinnesota Timberwolves107-117
03/11/26HBoston Celtics109-93
01/11/26HOklahoma City Thunder119-98
31/10/26ADallas Mavericks111-116
29/10/26AMilwaukee Bucks132-100
27/10/26HAtlanta Hawks120-110

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW54%
HomeLLWWW50%
AwayLWLWW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1367
Win %54%50%57%
Points / game118.7123.5114.6
Allowed / game119.8122.5117.6
Point differential-1.2+1.0-3.0
Avg total238.5246.0232.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%50%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %8%0%14%
Houston Rockets
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW77%
HomeWLWWW88%
AwayWWWLL60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1385
Win %77%88%60%
Points / game116.2116.6115.4
Allowed / game107.4106.8108.4
Point differential+8.8+9.9+7.0
Avg total223.5223.4223.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+46%62%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)-33% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 San Antonio Spurs1311285%119.5106.2+13.2
2 Los Angeles Lakers1311285%122.2114.2+7.9
3 Boston Celtics1210283%114.2103.1+11.2
4 Houston Rockets1310377%116.2107.4+8.8
5 Philadelphia 76ers1310377%111.2109.4+1.8
6 Portland Trail Blazers129375%119.6111.8+7.8
7 Minnesota Timberwolves139469%118.3106.8+11.5
8 Memphis Grizzlies139469%120.6111.7+8.9
9 Detroit Pistons128467%115.7110.2+5.4
10 Denver Nuggets117464%114.6112.8+1.8
11 Golden State Warriors138562%116.7112.4+4.3
12 Oklahoma City Thunder138562%111.2107.4+3.8
13 Atlanta Hawks137654%118.2116.8+1.3
14 Dallas Mavericks137654%113.5113.3+0.2
15 Miami Heat137654%118.7119.8-1.2
16 New York Knicks126650%109.8103.7+6.1
17 Cleveland Cavaliers147750%117.5115.9+1.6
18 Phoenix Suns115645%111.7116.1-4.4
19 Toronto Raptors125742%114.2112.8+1.4
20 Orlando Magic125742%108.3112.8-4.4
21 Indiana Pacers135838%111.2113.2-2.1
22 Charlotte Hornets124833%98.6109.6-11.0
23 Washington Wizards134931%110.0115.8-5.8
24 New Orleans Pelicans1441029%115.9124.9-9.1
25 Los Angeles Clippers113827%112.3117.5-5.3
26 Brooklyn Nets123925%110.2116.4-6.2
27 Chicago Bulls123925%114.6125.9-11.3
28 Sacramento Kings121118%108.2120.9-12.8
29 Utah Jazz131128%107.5118.6-11.2
30 Milwaukee Bucks131128%106.2120.2-14.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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