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Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 27 Mar 2011
Tip-off: 22:00
Final 125-119
38-37 33-31 22-25 32-26
Position#4
Record50-22
FormLWWWW
Points / game101.7
Allowed / game94.5
vs
Position#14
Record38-34
FormWWWWW
Points / game105.8
Allowed / game103.9
USANBA
NBA2010-11
Meetings · Miami Heat v Houston Rockets
16 Nov 2026
MIA v HOU
upcoming
28 Feb 2026
MIA115
HOU105
21 Mar 2025
MIA98
HOU102
08 Jan 2024
MIA120
HOU113
10 Feb 2023
MIA97
HOU95
07 Mar 2022
MIA123
HOU106
19 Apr 2021
MIA113
HOU91
03 Nov 2019
MIA129
HOU100
20 Dec 2018
MIA101
HOU99
07 Feb 2018
MIA101
HOU109
17 Jan 2017
MIA109
HOU103
01 Nov 2015
MIA109
HOU89
04 Nov 2014
MIA91
HOU108
16 Mar 2014
MIA113
HOU104
06 Feb 2013
MIA114
HOU108
22 Apr 2012
MIA97
HOU88
27 Mar 2011
MIA125
HOU119
09 Feb 2010
MIA99
HOU66
24 Nov 2008
MIA98
HOU107
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Houston Rockets winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#1
L
86-87
86
87
-1
H06/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#10
L
96-105
96
105
-9
H09/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#6
W
94-88
94
88
+6
H11/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#11
W
118-85
118
85
+33
H12/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
W
110-80
110
80
+30
H15/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#7
L
85-96
85
96
-11
H17/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
W
106-85
106
85
+21
A18/03
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
W
103-98
103
98
+5
H19/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#24
W
100-94
100
94
+6
A23/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#17
W
111-99
111
99
+12
H25/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-18
27-22
16-23
21-24
25-25
26-32
24-20
21-28
29-26
26-27
13-17
26-18
28-22
27-15
29-23
34-25
22-19
27-20
28-24
33-17
18-24
27-22
17-21
23-29
25-21
25-16
36-20
20-28
29-21
27-26
23-24
24-27
21-27
32-28
20-26
27-13
20-27
31-23
26-32
34-17
192.6Avg total
100.9Scored
91.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (72)101.794.5196.2+7.269%
Season at home (37)102.993.7196.5+9.273%
Season away (35)100.495.4195.8+5.066%
Last 10 (10)100.991.7192.6+9.270%
Last 5 (5)101.094.4195.4+6.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (11)95.695.8191.5-0.245%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)105.295.4200.6+9.879%
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Houston RocketsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#23
L
103-106
103
106
-3
A03/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#20
W
112-95
112
95
+17
H06/03
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#25
W
123-101
123
101
+22
A08/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
L
110-113
110
113
-3
A09/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
107-115
107
115
-8
H13/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
95-93
95
93
+2
H15/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
W
94-78
94
78
+16
H17/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
W
93-77
93
77
+16
H19/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#18
W
110-108
110
108
+2
H20/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#19
W
131-112
131
112
+19
H24/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-23
33-26
15-26
34-31
29-18
36-31
29-19
18-27
29-30
36-28
30-16
28-27
26-24
24-24
32-31
28-34
25-36
24-23
33-22
25-34
27-16
23-26
24-22
21-29
29-22
20-17
19-18
26-21
28-22
34-18
19-16
12-21
30-19
25-28
22-28
33-33
36-33
30-24
34-28
31-27
207.6Avg total
107.8Scored
99.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (72)105.8103.9209.7+1.953%
Season at home (36)105.8101.1206.9+4.861%
Season away (36)105.8106.7212.5-0.944%
Last 10 (10)107.899.8207.6+8.070%
Last 5 (5)104.693.6198.2+11.0100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀no games
vs Similar (18)103.7102.3206.1+1.450%
vs Weaker (12)112.2104.0216.2+8.283%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.9+0.9Q1: +3.7+3.7Q2Q2: +4.4+4.4Q2: +4.0+4.0Q3Q3: +0.2+0.2Q3: +3.1+3.1Q4Q4: +3.7+3.7Q4: -2.8-2.8
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.9+0.9Q1: +3.7+3.7Q2Q2: +4.4+4.4Q2: +4.0+4.0Q3Q3: +0.2+0.2Q3: +3.1+3.1Q4Q4: +3.7+3.7Q4: -2.8-2.8
Miami HeatHouston Rockets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#1
W
49-40
49
40
+9
H06/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#10
L
51-57
51
57
-6
H09/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#6
W
55-53
55
53
+2
H11/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#11
W
55-37
55
37
+18
H12/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
W
49-39
49
39
+10
H15/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#7
L
45-46
45
46
-1
H17/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
W
50-37
50
37
+13
A18/03
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
W
56-47
56
47
+9
H19/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#24
L
53-55
53
55
-2
A23/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#17
W
51-50
51
50
+1
H25/03
NBA
97.5Avg total
51.4Scored
46.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)53.847.8101.6+6.077%-
Last 30 at home (18)53.747.0100.7+6.772%-
Last 30 away (12)53.948.9102.8+5.083%-
Last 10 (10)51.446.197.5+5.370%-
Last 5 (5)51.047.098.0+4.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (11)52.947.4100.3+5.582%-
vs Weaker ◀ (19)54.348.0102.3+6.374%-
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Houston RocketsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#23
W
54-49
54
49
+5
A03/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#20
W
65-49
65
49
+16
H06/03
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#25
W
65-58
65
58
+7
A08/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
50-48
50
48
+2
A09/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
49-59
49
59
-10
H13/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
50-42
50
42
+8
H15/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
W
49-39
49
39
+10
H17/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
W
62-40
62
40
+22
H19/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#18
W
55-47
55
47
+8
H20/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#19
W
66-57
66
57
+9
H24/03
NBA
105.3Avg total
56.5Scored
48.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.753.3108.0+1.457%-
Last 30 at home (16)55.252.1107.3+3.162%-
Last 30 away (14)54.154.6108.8-0.550%-
Last 10 (10)56.548.8105.3+7.790%-
Last 5 (5)56.445.0101.4+11.4100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀no games
vs Similar (18)52.352.7105.1-0.450%-
vs Weaker (12)58.254.2112.4+4.167%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Miami Heat wins
2
Houston Rockets wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/03/11HPhiladelphia 76ers111-99
23/03/11ADetroit Pistons100-94
19/03/11HDenver Nuggets103-98
18/03/11AAtlanta Hawks106-85
17/03/11HOklahoma City Thunder85-96
15/03/11HSan Antonio Spurs110-80
12/03/11HMemphis Grizzlies118-85
11/03/11HLos Angeles Lakers94-88
09/03/11HPortland Trail Blazers96-105
06/03/11HChicago Bulls86-87
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/03/11HGolden State Warriors131-112
20/03/11HUtah Jazz110-108
19/03/11HBoston Celtics93-77
17/03/11HCharlotte Hornets94-78
15/03/11HPhoenix Suns95-93
13/03/11HSan Antonio Spurs107-115
09/03/11APhoenix Suns110-113
08/03/11ASacramento Kings123-101
06/03/11HIndiana Pacers112-95
03/03/11ALos Angeles Clippers103-106

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2010-11
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW69%
HomeWWLWW73%
AwayWLLWW66%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games723735
Win %69%73%66%
Points / game101.7102.9100.4
Allowed / game94.593.795.4
Point differential+7.2+9.2+5.0
Avg total196.2196.5195.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+42%43%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won32% (19)30% (10)33% (9)
Overtime %6%5%6%
Houston Rockets
NBA 2010-11
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW53%
HomeWWWWW61%
AwayWWLWL44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games723636
Win %53%61%44%
Points / game105.8105.8105.8
Allowed / game103.9101.1106.7
Point differential+1.9+4.8-0.9
Avg total209.7206.9212.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%42%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (25)40% (10)47% (15)
Overtime %8%8%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 San Antonio Spurs72571579%103.597.3+6.2
2 Chicago Bulls72531974%98.591.1+7.4
3 Los Angeles Lakers72522072%102.095.5+6.4
4 Dallas Mavericks72512171%100.295.9+4.3
5 Boston Celtics71502170%96.890.8+6.0
6 Miami Heat72502269%101.794.5+7.2
7 Oklahoma City Thunder71472466%104.5101.0+3.5
8 Orlando Magic73472664%99.894.2+5.6
9 Denver Nuggets73442960%107.7103.1+4.6
10 Portland Trail Blazers72423058%96.594.7+1.8
11 New Orleans Pelicans73423158%95.293.4+1.8
12 Atlanta Hawks73413256%95.395.5-0.2
13 Memphis Grizzlies73403355%99.998.1+1.8
14 Houston Rockets72383453%105.8103.9+1.9
15 Phoenix Suns71363551%105.3105.6-0.3
16 Philadelphia 76ers73373651%99.497.8+1.5
17 Utah Jazz74363849%100.1101.7-1.6
18 New York Knicks73353848%105.9105.7+0.2
19 Indiana Pacers74324243%99.3100.8-1.5
20 Golden State Warriors73314242%103.2106.2-3.0
21 Charlotte Hornets72304242%93.197.0-4.0
22 Milwaukee Bucks72294340%91.592.7-1.2
23 Los Angeles Clippers74294539%98.9101.8-2.9
24 Detroit Pistons73264736%96.1100.1-4.0
25 Brooklyn Nets72234932%93.699.2-5.6
26 Sacramento Kings72205228%99.1104.3-5.2
27 Toronto Raptors73205327%99.3105.6-6.3
28 Washington Wizards71175424%96.4104.7-8.3
29 Minnesota Timberwolves73175623%101.3107.1-5.8
30 Cleveland Cavaliers71145720%94.9105.1-10.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat38332232125
Houston Rockets37312526119
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