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Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 09 Jan 2024
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 120-113
34-27 25-32 32-23 29-31
Position#18
Record20-15
FormWLLWL
Points / game112.5
Allowed / game111.6
vs
Position#19
Record18-16
FormLWWLW
Points / game112.5
Allowed / game109.9
USANBA· Kaseya Center (Miami)
NBA2023-24
Meetings · Miami Heat v Houston Rockets
16 Nov 2026
MIA v HOU
upcoming
28 Feb 2026
MIA115
HOU105
21 Mar 2025
MIA98
HOU102
08 Jan 2024
MIA120
HOU113
10 Feb 2023
MIA97
HOU95
07 Mar 2022
MIA123
HOU106
19 Apr 2021
MIA113
HOU91
03 Nov 2019
MIA129
HOU100
20 Dec 2018
MIA101
HOU99
07 Feb 2018
MIA101
HOU109
17 Jan 2017
MIA109
HOU103
01 Nov 2015
MIA109
HOU89
04 Nov 2014
MIA91
HOU108
16 Mar 2014
MIA113
HOU104
06 Feb 2013
MIA114
HOU108
22 Apr 2012
MIA97
HOU88
27 Mar 2011
MIA125
HOU119
09 Feb 2010
MIA99
HOU66
24 Nov 2008
MIA98
HOU107
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Houston Rockets winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#20
W
118-116
118
116
+2
108avg 103
H17/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#4
L
108-112
108
112
-4
101avg 103
H19/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#14
W
115-106
115
106
+9
108avg 103
A21/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#21
W
122-113
122
113
+9
114avg 103
H23/12
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#13
W
119-113
119
113
+6
120avg 103
H26/12
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#15
W
114-102
114
102
+12
106avg 103
A29/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
L
109-117
109
117
-8
102avg 103
A30/12
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
L
104-121
104
121
-17
92avg 103
A02/01
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#16
W
110-96
110
96
+14
100avg 103
A04/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
97-113
97
113
-16
92avg 103
A06/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
36-24
22-33
33-23
27-36
33-22
33-32
17-23
25-35
25-24
43-26
21-22
26-34
33-26
29-34
26-26
34-27
26-22
37-27
23-37
33-27
22-25
36-26
33-25
23-26
28-27
25-27
35-34
21-29
35-23
23-36
27-36
19-26
25-18
28-27
19-22
38-29
29-33
26-29
20-32
22-19
222.5Avg total
111.6Scored
110.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (35)112.5111.6224.0+0.957%
Season at home (15)116.7116.5233.2+0.360%
Season away (20)109.2107.9217.2+1.355%
Last 10 (10)111.6110.9222.5+0.760%
Last 5 (5)106.8109.8216.6-3.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)108.0112.0220.0-4.00%
vs Similar ◀ (21)114.0112.5226.6+1.557%
vs Weaker (8)113.8109.0222.8+4.888%
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Houston RocketsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRockets
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#21
L
127-134
127
134
-7
118avg 105
H21/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#6
W
122-96
122
96
+26
118avg 105
H23/12
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#10
W
106-104
106
104
+2
96avg 105
A24/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
L
117-123
117
123
-6
102avg 105
H27/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
113-129
113
129
-16
90avg 105
H28/12
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#13
L
127-131
127
131
-4
122avg 105
H30/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
136-113
136
113
+23
134avg 105
H02/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#22
W
112-101
112
101
+11
113avg 105
H04/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#4
L
95-122
95
122
-27
76avg 105
H06/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#8
W
112-108
112
108
+4
105avg 105
H07/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-39
36-38
35-21
27-36
23-17
33-22
33-21
33-36
26-24
21-27
32-33
27-20
33-33
34-31
23-37
27-22
24-30
31-43
29-31
29-25
32-26
31-36
34-28
30-41
31-29
28-26
47-25
30-33
26-22
23-28
38-25
25-26
24-32
22-24
26-28
23-38
29-18
34-25
26-30
23-35
232.8Avg total
116.7Scored
116.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (34)112.5109.9222.4+2.653%
Season at home (21)113.7106.2220.0+7.571%
Season away (13)110.5115.8226.2-5.323%
Last 10 (10)116.7116.1232.8+0.650%
Last 5 (5)116.4115.0231.4+1.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)102.5111.5214.0-9.050%
vs Similar ◀ (22)114.4111.8226.1+2.645%
vs Weaker (6)112.097.8209.8+14.2100%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +4.8+4.8Q1: +0.7+0.7Q2Q2: +0.5+0.5Q2: -0.7-0.7Q3Q3: -2.6-2.6Q3: +4.4+4.4Q4Q4: -2.0-2.0Q4: -3.8-3.8
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +4.8+4.8Q1: +0.7+0.7Q2Q2: +0.5+0.5Q2: -0.7-0.7Q3Q3: -2.6-2.6Q3: +4.4+4.4Q4Q4: -2.0-2.0Q4: -3.8-3.8
Miami HeatHouston Rockets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#20
W
58-57
58
57
+1
H17/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#4
W
66-54
66
54
+12
H19/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#14
W
68-50
68
50
+18
A21/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#21
W
62-60
62
60
+2
H23/12
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#13
W
63-49
63
49
+14
H26/12
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#15
W
58-51
58
51
+7
A29/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
L
53-54
53
54
-1
A30/12
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
L
58-59
58
59
-1
A02/01
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#16
W
53-45
53
45
+8
A04/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
55-62
55
62
-7
A06/01
NBA
113.5Avg total
59.4Scored
54.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.854.6113.4+4.263%-
Last 30 at home (13)60.556.9117.4+3.569%-
Last 30 away (17)57.652.8110.4+4.859%-
Last 10 (10)59.454.1113.5+5.370%-
Last 5 (5)55.454.2109.6+1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)66.054.0120.0+12.0100%-
vs Similar ◀ (21)59.355.6115.0+3.762%-
vs Weaker (8)56.652.0108.6+4.662%-
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Houston RocketsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#21
L
65-77
65
77
-12
H21/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#6
W
56-39
56
39
+17
H23/12
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#10
L
47-51
47
51
-4
A24/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
W
67-64
67
64
+3
H27/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
55-73
55
73
-18
H28/12
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#13
W
63-62
63
62
+1
H30/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
59-55
59
55
+4
H02/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#22
L
49-50
49
50
-1
H04/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#4
L
46-56
46
56
-10
H06/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#8
W
63-43
63
43
+20
H07/01
NBA
114.0Avg total
57.0Scored
57.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.253.9109.2+1.357%-
Last 30 at home (19)57.051.9108.9+5.168%-
Last 30 away (11)52.257.5109.6-5.336%-
Last 10 (10)57.057.0114.0+0.050%-
Last 5 (5)56.053.2109.2+2.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)50.553.0103.5-2.550%-
vs Similar ◀ (22)56.855.3112.1+1.559%-
vs Weaker (6)51.049.3100.3+1.750%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 111.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.6 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.2 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.8 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.126.8
52.4%
54.4%53.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.012.4
36.5%
36.3%37.2
🏀 Free throws26.220.8
79.4%
78.2%20.8
They take 85.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Houston Rocketstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Houston Rockets: 116.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.0 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.3 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.4 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.429.0
52.3%
54.4%58.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.613.1
39.0%
36.3%39.3
🏀 Free throws24.419.4
79.5%
78.2%19.4
They take 89.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 09 Jan 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LWLLWWWWLW
Houston Rockets
WLWWLLLWWL
#18
League position
#19
+0.7
Net rating
+0.6
112.5
Offensive rating
114.6
111.8
Defensive rating
114.0
53.3%
Effective FG%
54.7%
53.8%
Opp. effective FG%
55.0%
12.7%
Turnover %
11.7%
23.3%
Off. rebound %
22.5%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.27
36.5%
3-point %
39.0%
64.3%
Assist %
56.3%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence112.5 · 114.6Defence111.8 · 114.0Shooting53.3% · 54.7%3-point %36.5% · 39.0%Ball care12.7% · 11.7%Off. rebounds23.3% · 22.5%Free throws0.31 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)60% · 50%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Houston Rockets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
Miami Heat wins
2
Houston Rockets wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/01/24APhoenix Suns97-113
04/01/24ALos Angeles Lakers110-96
02/01/24ALos Angeles Clippers104-121
30/12/23AUtah Jazz109-117
29/12/23AGolden State Warriors114-102
26/12/23HPhiladelphia 76ers119-113
23/12/23HAtlanta Hawks122-113
21/12/23AOrlando Magic115-106
19/12/23HMinnesota Timberwolves108-112
17/12/23HChicago Bulls118-116
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/01/24HMilwaukee Bucks112-108
06/01/24HMinnesota Timberwolves95-122
04/01/24HBrooklyn Nets112-101
02/01/24HDetroit Pistons136-113
30/12/23HPhiladelphia 76ers127-131
28/12/23HPhoenix Suns113-129
27/12/23HIndiana Pacers117-123
24/12/23ANew Orleans Pelicans106-104
23/12/23HDallas Mavericks122-96
21/12/23HAtlanta Hawks127-134

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL57%
HomeLWLWW60%
AwayWLLWL55%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games351520
Win %57%60%55%
Points / game112.5116.7109.2
Allowed / game111.6116.5107.9
Point differential+0.9+0.3+1.4
Avg total224.0233.2217.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%13%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won56% (9)60% (5)50% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Houston Rockets
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW53%
HomeLWWLW71%
AwayWWLLW23%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games342113
Win %53%71%23%
Points / game112.5113.7110.5
Allowed / game109.9106.2115.8
Point differential+2.6+7.5-5.3
Avg total222.4220.0226.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%48%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (9)75% (4)20% (5)
Overtime %6%0%15%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics3528780%121.4110.4+11.0
2 Minnesota Timberwolves35251071%112.9107.7+5.3
3 Milwaukee Bucks34241071%123.8119.2+4.6
4 Oklahoma City Thunder35241169%122.2114.6+7.6
5 Denver Nuggets38261268%116.1110.7+5.4
6 Philadelphia 76ers35231266%119.5111.3+8.2
7 Los Angeles Clippers35221363%116.6111.5+5.0
8 Sacramento Kings34211362%117.8117.7+0.1
9 New Orleans Pelicans35211460%116.2110.9+5.4
10 New York Knicks35211460%115.6111.5+4.1
11 Dallas Mavericks37221559%119.0116.8+2.2
12 Orlando Magic36211558%113.9111.9+1.9
13 Cleveland Cavaliers36211558%113.2111.5+1.7
14 Miami Heat35201557%112.5111.6+0.9
15 Indiana Pacers34191556%127.1124.9+2.2
16 Phoenix Suns35191654%115.7114.0+1.7
17 Houston Rockets34181653%112.5109.9+2.6
18 Golden State Warriors36171947%117.1116.9+0.2
19 Utah Jazz37172046%114.6118.7-4.1
20 Los Angeles Lakers35161946%113.1115.7-2.5
21 Chicago Bulls38172145%109.4111.5-2.2
22 Brooklyn Nets37162143%114.9116.6-1.6
23 Toronto Raptors36152142%115.0115.7-0.7
24 Atlanta Hawks35142140%122.2123.7-1.5
25 Memphis Grizzlies36132336%107.8113.5-5.7
26 Portland Trail Blazers35102529%109.0116.3-7.4
27 Charlotte Hornets3482624%109.5120.0-10.5
28 Washington Wizards3663017%115.5126.3-10.8
29 San Antonio Spurs3553014%111.3122.7-11.4
30 Detroit Pistons363338%111.5122.6-11.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat34253229120
Houston Rockets27322331113
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