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Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 06 Apr 2024
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 104-119
27-27 32-37 24-29 21-26
Position#19
Record38-38
FormWWLLL
Points / game114.0
Allowed / game112.8
vs
Position#18
Record42-34
FormLWWWL
Points / game109.8
Allowed / game108.4
USANBA· Toyota Center (Houston)
NBA2023-24
Meetings · Houston Rockets v Miami Heat
28 Feb 2027
HOU v MIA
upcoming
21 Mar 2026
HOU123
MIA122
29 Dec 2024
HOU100
MIA104
05 Apr 2024
HOU104
MIA119
15 Dec 2022
HOU108
MIA111
31 Dec 2021
HOU110
MIA120
11 Feb 2021
HOU94
MIA101
27 Nov 2019
HOU117
MIA108
28 Feb 2019
HOU121
MIA118
22 Jan 2018
HOU99
MIA90
15 Feb 2017
HOU109
MIA117
02 Feb 2016
HOU115
MIA102
03 Jan 2015
HOU115
MIA79
04 Mar 2014
HOU106
MIA103
12 Nov 2012
HOU110
MIA113
29 Dec 2010
HOU119
MIA125
15 Jan 2010
HOU106
MIA115
17 Jan 2009
HOU93
MIA86
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Houston Rockets winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Houston RocketsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRockets
Date
Competition
Cleveland Cavaliers
#12
W
117-103
117
103
+14
109avg 106
H16/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
137-114
137
114
+23
131avg 106
A19/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#20
W
127-117
127
117
+10
122avg 106
H22/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
W
147-119
147
119
+28
144avg 106
H24/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#27
W
110-92
110
92
+18
95avg 106
H26/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#2
W
132-126 OT
132
126
+6
119avg 106
A28/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
W
101-100
101
100
+1
83avg 106
A30/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#6
L
107-125
107
125
-18
94avg 106
H31/03
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#4
L
106-113
106
113
-7
91avg 106
A03/04
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#15
L
110-133
110
133
-23
93avg 106
H05/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
34-29
36-25
28-19
19-30
39-36
21-21
41-25
36-32
42-28
26-33
37-33
22-23
47-21
38-34
37-36
25-28
28-25
19-26
33-20
30-21
28-17
21-33
31-35
32-27
13-23
28-24
28-25
32-28
24-36
21-30
28-25
34-34
23-16
22-38
27-27
34-32
24-33
26-32
33-34
27-34
233.6Avg total
119.4Scored
114.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (76)114.0112.8226.8+1.250%
Season at home (39)116.3110.6226.8+5.767%
Season away (37)111.6115.2226.8-3.632%
Last 10 (10)119.4114.2233.6+5.270%
Last 5 (5)111.2119.4230.6-8.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)106.6117.0223.6-10.420%
vs Similar ◀ (14)112.6116.2228.9-3.643%
vs Weaker (11)120.2107.9228.1+12.382%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
104-101
104
101
+3
96avg 102
A17/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#13
L
91-98
91
98
-7
81avg 102
A18/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#12
W
107-104
107
104
+3
96avg 102
A20/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#10
L
88-111
88
111
-23
72avg 102
H23/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#12
W
121-84
121
84
+37
121avg 102
H24/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#15
L
92-113
92
113
-21
78avg 102
H26/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#27
W
142-82
142
82
+60
148avg 102
H30/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
119-107
119
107
+12
113avg 102
A31/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#5
W
109-99
109
99
+10
108avg 102
H02/04
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#13
L
105-109
105
109
-4
96avg 102
H04/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-23
39-27
19-26
25-25
23-31
26-20
16-28
26-19
31-30
30-27
22-18
24-29
20-21
22-25
24-30
22-35
32-22
28-17
30-18
31-27
26-24
29-29
20-32
17-28
29-19
45-21
33-23
35-19
29-29
37-30
29-21
24-27
34-22
24-21
25-30
26-26
29-39
26-24
33-24
17-22
208.6Avg total
107.8Scored
100.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (76)109.8108.4218.2+1.455%
Season at home (38)112.2110.6222.8+1.653%
Season away (38)107.4106.2213.7+1.258%
Last 10 (10)107.8100.8208.6+7.060%
Last 5 (5)113.4102.0215.4+11.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)103.0108.5211.5-5.50%
vs Similar ◀ (18)105.6103.5209.1+2.150%
vs Weaker (10)115.7102.7218.4+13.090%
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +3.8+3.8Q1: +1.4+1.4Q2Q2: -3.8-3.8Q2: +6.5+6.5Q3Q3: +4.4+4.4Q3: +0.1+0.1Q4Q4: +0.2+0.2Q4: -1.0-1.0
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +3.8+3.8Q1: +1.4+1.4Q2Q2: -3.8-3.8Q2: +6.5+6.5Q3Q3: +4.4+4.4Q3: +0.1+0.1Q4Q4: +0.2+0.2Q4: -1.0-1.0
Houston RocketsMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Houston RocketsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cleveland Cavaliers
#12
W
70-54
70
54
+16
H16/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
60-57
60
57
+3
A19/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#20
W
68-61
68
61
+7
H22/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
W
85-55
85
55
+30
H24/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#27
L
47-51
47
51
-4
H26/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#2
L
49-50
49
50
-1
A28/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
L
41-47
41
47
-6
A30/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#6
L
45-66
45
66
-21
H31/03
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#4
L
45-54
45
54
-9
A03/04
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#15
L
50-65
50
65
-15
H05/04
NBA
112.0Avg total
56.0Scored
56.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.455.5110.9-0.140%-
Last 30 at home (14)60.054.6114.6+5.464%-
Last 30 away (16)51.356.2107.6-4.919%-
Last 10 (10)56.056.0112.0+0.040%-
Last 5 (5)46.056.4102.4-10.40%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)50.053.8103.8-3.820%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)56.657.2113.9-0.650%-
vs Weaker (11)56.254.1110.3+2.136%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
60-50
60
50
+10
A17/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#13
L
49-51
49
51
-2
A18/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#12
W
61-57
61
57
+4
A20/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#10
L
42-46
42
46
-4
H23/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#12
W
60-39
60
39
+21
H24/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#15
W
55-53
55
53
+2
H26/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#27
W
74-40
74
40
+34
H30/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
66-59
66
59
+7
A31/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#5
W
58-43
58
43
+15
H02/04
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#13
L
55-63
55
63
-8
H04/04
NBA
108.1Avg total
58.0Scored
50.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.153.3109.4+2.857%-
Last 30 at home (16)54.451.4105.9+3.056%-
Last 30 away (14)58.055.5113.5+2.557%-
Last 10 (10)58.050.1108.1+7.970%-
Last 5 (5)61.651.6113.2+10.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)53.553.0106.5+0.550%-
vs Similar ◀ (18)55.153.1108.2+2.150%-
vs Weaker (10)58.453.9112.3+4.570%-
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Houston Rocketstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Houston Rockets: 119.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.4 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers45.3 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.7 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.228.2
55.1%
54.4%56.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers42.515.1
35.5%
36.3%45.3
🏀 Free throws22.117.7
80.1%
78.2%17.7
They take 93.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 42.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 107.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.0 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.4 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.4 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.525.5
52.6%
54.4%51.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.813.8
36.5%
36.3%41.4
🏀 Free throws18.415.4
83.7%
78.2%15.4
They take 86.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 06 Apr 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Houston Rockets
LLLWWWWWWW
Miami Heat
LWWWLWLWLW
#19
League position
#18
+5.1
Net rating
+7.3
118.1
Offensive rating
112.7
112.9
Defensive rating
105.4
54.3%
Effective FG%
53.5%
55.1%
Opp. effective FG%
53.8%
10.7%
Turnover %
11.0%
27.6%
Off. rebound %
21.3%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.21
35.5%
3-point %
36.5%
55.9%
Assist %
64.1%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence118.1 · 112.7Defence112.9 · 105.4Shooting54.3% · 53.5%3-point %35.5% · 36.5%Ball care10.7% · 11.0%Off. rebounds27.6% · 21.3%Free throws0.24 · 0.21Form (last 10/10)70% · 60%
■ Houston Rockets   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Houston Rockets wins
8
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/04/24HGolden State Warriors110-133
03/04/24AMinnesota Timberwolves106-113
31/03/24HDallas Mavericks107-125
30/03/24AUtah Jazz101-100
28/03/24AOklahoma City Thunder132-126 OT
26/03/24HPortland Trail Blazers110-92
24/03/24HUtah Jazz147-119
22/03/24HChicago Bulls127-117
19/03/24AWashington Wizards137-114
16/03/24HCleveland Cavaliers117-103
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/04/24HPhiladelphia 76ers105-109
02/04/24HNew York Knicks109-99
31/03/24AWashington Wizards119-107
30/03/24HPortland Trail Blazers142-82
26/03/24HGolden State Warriors92-113
24/03/24HCleveland Cavaliers121-84
23/03/24HNew Orleans Pelicans88-111
20/03/24ACleveland Cavaliers107-104
18/03/24APhiladelphia 76ers91-98
17/03/24ADetroit Pistons104-101

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Houston Rockets
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL50%
HomeWWWLL67%
AwayWWWWL32%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games763937
Win %50%67%32%
Points / game114.0116.3111.6
Allowed / game112.8110.6115.2
Point differential+1.2+5.7-3.6
Avg total226.8226.8226.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+28%46%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (20)86% (7)31% (13)
Overtime %8%5%11%
Miami Heat
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL55%
HomeWLWWL53%
AwayWWLWW58%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games763838
Win %55%53%58%
Points / game109.8112.2107.4
Allowed / game108.4110.6106.2
Point differential+1.4+1.6+1.2
Avg total218.2222.8213.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%21%26%
Close games (≤5 pts) won56% (18)40% (10)75% (8)
Overtime %1%0%3%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics76611580%120.9109.0+11.9
2 Minnesota Timberwolves76532370%113.1106.0+7.2
3 Denver Nuggets77532469%114.3109.6+4.7
4 Oklahoma City Thunder77522568%119.8113.4+6.4
5 Los Angeles Clippers76482863%115.8112.5+3.3
6 Milwaukee Bucks74462862%119.7116.5+3.1
7 Dallas Mavericks76463061%118.3115.8+2.5
8 New York Knicks75453060%112.4107.4+4.9
9 Phoenix Suns75453060%117.0114.0+3.1
10 Cleveland Cavaliers77463160%112.6109.9+2.7
11 New Orleans Pelicans74443059%115.3110.2+5.1
12 Orlando Magic77453258%110.6108.4+2.2
13 Sacramento Kings76443258%116.8115.4+1.4
14 Los Angeles Lakers75423356%117.9118.0-0.2
15 Golden State Warriors76423455%118.0115.6+2.4
16 Indiana Pacers76423455%122.7120.4+2.4
17 Miami Heat76423455%109.8108.4+1.4
18 Philadelphia 76ers77423555%114.2112.0+2.2
19 Houston Rockets76383850%114.0112.8+1.2
20 Chicago Bulls76364047%111.9113.6-1.6
21 Atlanta Hawks77364147%118.8120.0-1.2
22 Brooklyn Nets77304739%111.2113.7-2.5
23 Utah Jazz76294738%116.1120.7-4.5
24 Memphis Grizzlies76265034%106.0112.9-6.9
25 Toronto Raptors76235330%112.3118.7-6.4
26 Portland Trail Blazers77215627%106.9115.5-8.5
27 Charlotte Hornets77195825%106.3116.5-10.2
28 San Antonio Spurs76185824%112.1119.1-7.0
29 Washington Wizards78156319%113.3122.7-9.4
30 Detroit Pistons76136317%110.6119.4-8.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Houston Rockets27322421104
Miami Heat27372926119
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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