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Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 21 Dec 2018
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 101-99
21-33 32-25 29-18 19-23
Position#17
Record13-16
FormWLLWW
Points / game106.8
Allowed / game107.7
vs
Position#5
Record16-14
FormWWWWW
Points / game109.6
Allowed / game109.0
USANBA· AmericanAirlines Arena
NBA2018-19
Meetings · Miami Heat v Houston Rockets
16 Nov 2026
MIA v HOU
upcoming
28 Feb 2026
MIA115
HOU105
21 Mar 2025
MIA98
HOU102
08 Jan 2024
MIA120
HOU113
10 Feb 2023
MIA97
HOU95
07 Mar 2022
MIA123
HOU106
19 Apr 2021
MIA113
HOU91
03 Nov 2019
MIA129
HOU100
20 Dec 2018
MIA101
HOU99
07 Feb 2018
MIA101
HOU109
17 Jan 2017
MIA109
HOU103
01 Nov 2015
MIA109
HOU89
04 Nov 2014
MIA91
HOU108
16 Mar 2014
MIA113
HOU104
06 Feb 2013
MIA114
HOU108
22 Apr 2012
MIA97
HOU88
27 Mar 2011
MIA125
HOU119
09 Feb 2010
MIA99
HOU66
24 Nov 2008
MIA98
HOU107
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Houston Rockets winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#26
L
113-115
113
115
-2
101avg 97
H28/11
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
106-101
106
101
+5
92avg 97
H01/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#9
W
102-100
102
100
+2
89avg 97
H02/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#14
L
90-105
90
105
-15
77avg 97
H05/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#28
W
115-98
115
98
+17
113avg 97
A08/12
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#12
W
121-98
121
98
+23
116avg 97
A09/12
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#20
L
105-108
105
108
-3
100avg 97
A11/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#9
L
84-111
84
111
-27
64avg 97
A13/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
W
100-97
100
97
+3
101avg 97
A15/12
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
102-96
102
96
+6
95avg 97
A17/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
38-35
14-33
34-32
27-15
37-17
24-24
20-34
25-26
27-35
26-20
27-22
22-23
25-27
25-19
12-30
28-29
34-36
26-14
29-23
26-25
34-30
31-32
26-28
30-8
23-27
35-28
25-29
22-24
15-40
18-20
20-32
31-19
29-28
22-21
20-24
29-24
33-28
24-23
28-22
17-23
206.7Avg total
103.8Scored
102.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)106.8107.7214.5-0.945%
Season at home (14)105.4107.9213.3-2.436%
Season away (15)108.1107.6215.7+0.553%
Last 10 (10)103.8102.9206.7+0.960%
Last 5 (5)102.4102.0204.4+0.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)98.0110.0208.0-12.025%
vs Similar (21)106.5108.0214.6-1.543%
vs Weaker (5)111.8103.8215.6+8.060%
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Houston RocketsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRockets
Date
Competition
San Antonio Spurs
#11
W
136-105
136
105
+31
132avg 99
A01/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
121-105
121
105
+16
115avg 99
H02/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#21
L
91-103
91
103
-12
85avg 99
A04/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#9
L
91-118
91
118
-27
73avg 99
A07/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#22
L
104-107
104
107
-3
91avg 99
A08/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#6
W
111-104
111
104
+7
101avg 99
H12/12
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#20
W
126-111
126
111
+15
120avg 99
H14/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
W
105-97
105
97
+8
101avg 99
A16/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#9
W
102-97
102
97
+5
83avg 99
H18/12
NBA
Washington Wizards
#25
W
136-118
136
118
+18
135avg 99
H20/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
39-23
31-24
40-27
26-31
38-22
18-24
31-29
34-30
24-24
38-24
20-38
9-17
18-27
27-26
11-38
35-27
30-32
27-24
27-28
20-23
27-29
24-25
30-24
30-26
29-24
33-32
28-32
36-23
36-29
25-11
18-25
26-32
25-23
25-14
33-36
19-24
34-28
36-30
31-32
35-28
218.8Avg total
112.3Scored
106.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)109.6109.0218.6+0.653%
Season at home (14)113.1111.1224.2+1.964%
Season away (16)106.5107.1213.6-0.644%
Last 10 (10)112.3106.5218.8+5.870%
Last 5 (5)116.0105.4221.4+10.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (12)101.0100.3201.3+0.758%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)115.3114.8230.1+0.550%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q1: +3.9+3.9Q2Q2: +1.1+1.1Q2: +5.0+5.0Q3Q3: -3.5-3.5Q3: -4.0-4.0Q4Q4: +4.1+4.1Q4: +0.9+0.9
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q1: +3.9+3.9Q2Q2: +1.1+1.1Q2: +5.0+5.0Q3Q3: -3.5-3.5Q3: -4.0-4.0Q4Q4: +4.1+4.1Q4: +0.9+0.9
Miami HeatHouston Rockets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#26
L
52-68
52
68
-16
H28/11
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
61-41
61
41
+20
H01/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#9
L
53-55
53
55
-2
H02/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#14
W
50-46
50
46
+4
H05/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#28
W
60-50
60
50
+10
A08/12
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#12
W
65-62
65
62
+3
A09/12
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#20
W
58-55
58
55
+3
A11/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#9
L
33-60
33
60
-27
A13/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
W
51-49
51
49
+2
A15/12
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
57-51
57
51
+6
A17/12
NBA
107.7Avg total
54.0Scored
53.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.154.0108.1+0.150%-
Last 30 at home (14)53.552.9106.4+0.657%-
Last 30 away (16)54.654.9109.5-0.444%-
Last 10 (10)54.053.7107.7+0.370%-
Last 5 (5)52.855.4108.2-2.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)46.556.0102.5-9.50%-
vs Similar (21)54.753.3108.0+1.457%-
vs Weaker (5)57.455.2112.6+2.260%-
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Houston RocketsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
San Antonio Spurs
#11
W
70-47
70
47
+23
A01/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
56-46
56
46
+10
H02/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#21
W
62-48
62
48
+14
A04/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#9
L
45-53
45
53
-8
A07/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#22
W
57-56
57
56
+1
A08/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#6
L
51-54
51
54
-3
H12/12
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#20
W
62-56
62
56
+6
H14/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
W
61-40
61
40
+21
A16/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#9
W
50-37
50
37
+13
H18/12
NBA
Washington Wizards
#25
W
70-58
70
58
+12
H20/12
NBA
107.9Avg total
58.4Scored
49.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.555.6112.1+0.940%-
Last 30 at home (14)56.455.7112.1+0.750%-
Last 30 away (16)56.655.6112.1+1.031%-
Last 10 (10)58.449.5107.9+8.980%-
Last 5 (5)58.849.0107.8+9.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (12)51.850.8102.6+0.933%-
vs Weaker ◀ (18)59.758.8118.5+0.844%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 103.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.2 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.5 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.1 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.7 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.025.6
48.3%
51.7%51.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.412.5
35.3%
35.4%37.5
🏀 Free throws21.815.1
69.3%
76.6%15.1
They take 88.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Houston Rocketstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Houston Rockets: 112.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.4 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers44.1 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.8 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.7 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.524.7
56.8%
51.7%49.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.914.7
35.9%
35.4%44.1
🏀 Free throws23.518.8
80.0%
76.6%18.8
They take 84.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 40.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Dec 2018 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WWLLWWLWWL
Houston Rockets
WWWWWLLLWW
#17
League position
#5
+0.9
Net rating
+5.9
104.6
Offensive rating
114.0
103.7
Defensive rating
108.2
50.2%
Effective FG%
55.4%
50.9%
Opp. effective FG%
53.2%
14.5%
Turnover %
14.0%
26.6%
Off. rebound %
24.3%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.28
35.3%
3-point %
35.9%
62.7%
Assist %
57.6%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence104.6 · 114.0Defence103.7 · 108.2Shooting50.2% · 55.4%3-point %35.3% · 35.9%Ball care14.5% · 14.0%Off. rebounds26.6% · 24.3%Free throws0.25 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)60% · 70%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Houston Rockets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Miami Heat wins
6
Houston Rockets wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/12/18ANew Orleans Pelicans102-96
15/12/18AMemphis Grizzlies100-97
13/12/18AUtah Jazz84-111
11/12/18ALos Angeles Lakers105-108
09/12/18ALos Angeles Clippers121-98
08/12/18APhoenix Suns115-98
05/12/18HOrlando Magic90-105
02/12/18HUtah Jazz102-100
01/12/18HNew Orleans Pelicans106-101
28/11/18HAtlanta Hawks113-115
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/12/18HWashington Wizards136-118
18/12/18HUtah Jazz102-97
16/12/18AMemphis Grizzlies105-97
14/12/18HLos Angeles Lakers126-111
12/12/18HPortland Trail Blazers111-104
08/12/18ADallas Mavericks104-107
07/12/18AUtah Jazz91-118
04/12/18AMinnesota Timberwolves91-103
02/12/18HChicago Bulls121-105
01/12/18ASan Antonio Spurs136-105

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2018-19
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW45%
HomeLLWWL36%
AwayWLLWW53%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291415
Win %45%36%53%
Points / game106.8105.4108.1
Allowed / game107.7107.9107.6
Point differential-0.9-2.4+0.5
Avg total214.5213.3215.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%7%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (10)50% (4)50% (6)
Overtime %3%0%7%
Houston Rockets
NBA 2018-19
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW53%
HomeWWWWW64%
AwayWLLLW44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301416
Win %53%64%44%
Points / game109.6113.1106.5
Allowed / game109.0111.1107.1
Point differential+0.6+1.9-0.6
Avg total218.6224.2213.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+27%43%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)100% (2)20% (5)
Overtime %7%0%12%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Toronto Raptors3324973%114.4107.0+7.4
2 Milwaukee Bucks3021970%117.8109.0+8.8
3 Denver Nuggets3021970%110.0103.4+6.6
4 Oklahoma City Thunder30201067%112.1105.3+6.9
5 Golden State Warriors32211166%115.5110.4+5.0
6 Philadelphia 76ers33211264%114.2112.1+2.2
7 Indiana Pacers32201262%105.9100.8+5.1
8 Boston Celtics30181260%111.2104.3+6.9
9 Portland Trail Blazers31181358%111.8110.2+1.6
10 Los Angeles Lakers31181358%113.3111.7+1.6
11 Los Angeles Clippers30171357%114.4114.1+0.3
12 Houston Rockets30161453%109.6109.0+0.6
13 San Antonio Spurs32171553%111.2109.9+1.3
14 Dallas Mavericks29151452%109.9108.7+1.2
15 Detroit Pistons29151452%109.7110.3-0.7
16 Memphis Grizzlies31161552%101.9102.3-0.4
17 Sacramento Kings31161552%115.3116.9-1.6
18 Charlotte Hornets30151550%113.7111.4+2.3
19 New Orleans Pelicans32151747%116.7115.3+1.3
20 Utah Jazz32151747%106.5106.4+0.1
21 Orlando Magic30141647%103.5107.4-3.9
22 Brooklyn Nets33151845%110.6111.2-0.6
23 Minnesota Timberwolves31141745%111.2111.2-0.0
24 Miami Heat29131645%106.8107.7-0.9
25 Washington Wizards32122038%112.9117.6-4.7
26 New York Knicks3392427%108.6115.9-7.3
27 Cleveland Cavaliers3282425%102.9111.1-8.2
28 Phoenix Suns3282425%103.3112.3-9.0
29 Atlanta Hawks3072323%108.8119.0-10.2
30 Chicago Bulls3272522%100.9111.5-10.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat21322919101
Houston Rockets3325182399
← all games of the day
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