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Monaco vs Real Madrid Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 26 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 18:30
Final 100-95
21-20 26-23 23-27 30-25
Position#10
Record10-7
FormWLWWW
Points / game90.2
Allowed / game83.4
Monaco 🏆
vs
Position#2
Record10-7
FormWWLWW
Points / game85.3
Allowed / game83.6
EuropeEuroleagueRound 18· Salle Gaston Medecin
European cup2025
Meetings · Monaco v Real Madrid
26 Dec 2025
MCO100
MAD95
31 Jan 2025
MCO77
MAD73
19 Jan 2024
MCO98
MAD74
03 Feb 2023
MCO91
MAD95
28 Jan 2022
MCO84
MAD90
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Monaco winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Real Madrid winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MonacoLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMonaco
Date
Competition
Anadolu Efes
#19
W
102-66
102
66
+36
103avg 91
H26/11
Euroleague
Paris
#47
W
109-103
109
103
+6
113avg 91
H02/12
French Cup
Paris
#16
W
125-104
125
104
+21
131avg 91
H04/12
Euroleague
Dijon
#11
W
99-86
99
86
+13
102avg 91
A06/12
LNB
Fenerbahce
#4
L
86-92
86
92
-6
75avg 91
H12/12
Euroleague
Strasbourg
#8
W
88-74
88
74
+14
87avg 91
H14/12
LNB
Baskonia
#18
L
73-85
73
85
-12
56avg 91
A17/12
Euroleague
Bayern
#14
W
103-77
103
77
+26
109avg 91
H19/12
Euroleague
Nanterre
#3
W
105-98 OT
105
98
+7
91avg 91
H21/12
LNB
Cholet
#5
W
95-72
95
72
+23
100avg 91
A23/12
LNB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-22
25-21
20-10
32-13
33-25
32-33
15-16
29-29
35-29
23-17
33-24
34-34
23-13
22-20
28-35
26-18
21-14
25-24
23-22
17-32
25-20
26-17
21-24
16-13
14-17
20-26
21-19
18-23
18-17
29-22
35-16
21-22
27-18
16-21
18-19
13-16
35-14
23-20
20-19
17-19
184.2Avg total
98.5Scored
85.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)90.283.4173.6+6.859%
Season at home (8)98.184.6182.8+13.575%
Season away (9)83.182.3165.4+0.844%
Last 10 (10)98.585.7184.2+12.880%
Last 5 (5)92.881.2174.0+11.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)92.087.0179.0+5.0100%
vs Similar ◀ (15)94.590.7185.3+3.867%
vs Weaker (13)90.078.2168.2+11.869%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Real MadridLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMadrid
Date
Competition
Zalgiris Kaunas
#5
W
100-99
100
99
+1
92avg 81
H20/11
Euroleague
Granada
#18
W
111-100
111
100
+11
103avg 81
A22/11
ACB
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#6
W
75-74
75
74
+1
69avg 81
A25/11
Euroleague
Anadolu Efes
#19
W
81-75
81
75
+6
82avg 81
A04/12
Euroleague
Tenerife
#8
W
71-70
71
70
+1
66avg 81
A07/12
ACB
Baskonia
#18
W
94-87
94
87
+7
91avg 81
H11/12
Euroleague
Basquet Girona
#12
W
112-76
112
76
+36
110avg 81
H14/12
ACB
Olimpia Milano
#13
L
82-89
82
89
-7
68avg 81
A16/12
Euroleague
Paris
#16
W
95-90
95
90
+5
90avg 81
H18/12
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#14
W
88-81
88
81
+7
79avg 81
A20/12
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-16
21-21
19-25
38-37
31-29
25-19
22-31
33-21
22-18
17-18
21-22
15-16
17-17
20-24
23-18
21-16
18-16
15-9
16-23
22-22
24-23
18-16
29-21
23-27
28-22
31-27
27-16
26-11
21-23
18-27
21-16
22-23
24-21
25-29
21-24
25-16
28-19
18-24
20-24
22-14
175.0Avg total
90.9Scored
84.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)85.383.6168.9+1.759%
Season at home (8)89.682.0171.6+7.688%
Season away (9)81.485.0166.4-3.633%
Last 10 (10)90.984.1175.0+6.890%
Last 5 (5)94.284.6178.8+9.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)94.098.0192.0-4.00%
vs Similar ◀ (7)85.984.1170.0+1.757%
vs Weaker (21)87.981.8169.7+6.176%
This opponent (Monaco) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +6.7+6.7Q1: +3.1+3.1Q2Q2: +2.0+2.0Q2: -0.6-0.6Q3Q3: +3.0+3.0Q3: -0.1-0.1Q4Q4: +0.4+0.4Q4: +4.4+4.4
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +6.7+6.7Q1: +3.1+3.1Q2Q2: +2.0+2.0Q2: -0.6-0.6Q3Q3: +3.0+3.0Q3: -0.1-0.1Q4Q4: +0.4+0.4Q4: +4.4+4.4
MonacoReal Madrid
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
MonacoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Anadolu Efes
#19
W
50-43
50
43
+7
H26/11
Euroleague
Paris
#47
W
65-58
65
58
+7
H02/12
French Cup
Paris
#16
W
58-46
58
46
+12
H04/12
Euroleague
Dijon
#11
W
45-33
45
33
+12
A06/12
LNB
Fenerbahce
#4
W
46-38
46
38
+8
H12/12
Euroleague
Strasbourg
#8
W
51-37
51
37
+14
H14/12
LNB
Baskonia
#18
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A17/12
Euroleague
Bayern
#14
W
47-39
47
39
+8
H19/12
Euroleague
Nanterre
#3
W
43-39
43
39
+4
H21/12
LNB
Cholet
#5
W
58-34
58
34
+24
A23/12
LNB
90.7Avg total
49.7Scored
41.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.041.287.3+4.867%-
Last 30 at home (15)49.143.192.3+6.080%-
Last 30 away (15)42.939.382.3+3.653%-
Last 10 (10)49.741.090.7+8.790%-
Last 5 (5)46.638.485.0+8.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)37.038.075.0-1.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)47.043.790.7+3.373%-
vs Weaker (13)44.237.381.5+6.862%-
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Real MadridLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Zalgiris Kaunas
#5
W
43-37
43
37
+6
H20/11
Euroleague
Granada
#18
W
56-48
56
48
+8
A22/11
ACB
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#6
W
39-36
39
36
+3
A25/11
Euroleague
Anadolu Efes
#19
L
37-41
37
41
-4
A04/12
Euroleague
Tenerife
#8
W
33-25
33
25
+8
A07/12
ACB
Baskonia
#18
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H11/12
Euroleague
Basquet Girona
#12
W
59-49
59
49
+10
H14/12
ACB
Olimpia Milano
#13
L
39-50
39
50
-11
A16/12
Euroleague
Paris
#16
L
49-50
49
50
-1
H18/12
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#14
W
46-43
46
43
+3
A20/12
ACB
86.1Avg total
44.3Scored
41.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.742.487.1+2.357%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.841.786.5+3.153%-
Last 30 away (15)44.543.187.7+1.460%-
Last 10 (10)44.341.886.1+2.570%-
Last 5 (5)47.046.293.2+0.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)44.051.095.0-7.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (7)44.642.086.6+2.657%-
vs Weaker (21)45.242.087.2+3.262%-
This opponent (Monaco) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Monacotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Monaco: 97.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀26%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.0 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws25.3 pts a game · 26% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.0 points a game
48%
38%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.322.5
58.7%
60.4%45.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.79.2
38.8%
35.9%27.6
🏀 Free throws29.925.3
84.6%
78.2%25.3
They take 62.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 47%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Real Madridtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Real Madrid: 89.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.3 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.8 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.0 points a game
48%
38%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.821.3
56.3%
60.4%42.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.69.1
35.5%
35.9%27.3
🏀 Free throws23.919.8
82.8%
78.2%19.8
They take 63.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 47%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 26 Dec 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Monaco
WWWLWLWWWW
Real Madrid
WWLWWWWWWW
#10
League position
#2
+16.7
Net rating
+8.3
122.0
Offensive rating
119.8
105.3
Defensive rating
111.5
58.5%
Effective FG%
55.1%
53.8%
Opp. effective FG%
56.5%
17.2%
Turnover %
17.3%
28.7%
Off. rebound %
35.0%
0.48
Free-throw rate
0.38
38.8%
3-point %
35.5%
67.2%
Assist %
53.0%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence122.0 · 119.8Defence105.3 · 111.5Shooting58.5% · 55.1%3-point %38.8% · 35.5%Ball care17.2% · 17.3%Off. rebounds28.7% · 35.0%Free throws0.48 · 0.38Form (last 10/10)80% · 90%
■ Monaco   ■ Real Madrid
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Monaco wins
5
Real Madrid wins
DateGameScore
31/01/25Monaco v Real Madrid77-73
19/12/24Real Madrid v Monaco94-72
19/01/24Monaco v Real Madrid98-74
16/11/23Real Madrid v Monaco91-73
03/02/23Monaco v Real Madrid91-95
08/12/22Real Madrid v Monaco94-95 OT
28/01/22Monaco v Real Madrid84-90 OT
13/10/21Real Madrid v Monaco94-86
Monacolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
23/12/25ACholet95-72
21/12/25HNanterre105-98 OT
19/12/25HBayern103-77
17/12/25ABaskonia73-85
14/12/25HStrasbourg88-74
12/12/25HFenerbahce86-92
06/12/25ADijon99-86
04/12/25HParis125-104
02/12/25HParis109-103
26/11/25HAnadolu Efes102-66
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/12/25AForca Lleida88-81
18/12/25HParis95-90
16/12/25AOlimpia Milano82-89
14/12/25HBasquet Girona112-76
11/12/25HBaskonia94-87
07/12/25ATenerife71-70
04/12/25AAnadolu Efes81-75
25/11/25AHapoel Tel-Aviv75-74
22/11/25AGranada111-100
20/11/25HZalgiris Kaunas100-99

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Monaco
Euroleague 2025
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW59%
HomeWWWLW75%
AwayWLLWL44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1789
Win %59%75%44%
Points / game90.298.183.1
Allowed / game83.484.682.3
Point differential+6.8+13.5+0.8
Avg total173.6182.8165.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%50%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)0% (1)60% (5)
Overtime %6%0%11%
Real Madrid
Euroleague 2025
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW59%
HomeWLWWW88%
AwayWLWWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1789
Win %59%88%33%
Points / game85.389.681.4
Allowed / game83.682.085.0
Point differential+1.7+7.6-3.6
Avg total168.9171.6166.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%38%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)100% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Hapoel Tel-Aviv1813572%88.582.8+5.7
2 Valencia1812667%89.685.2+4.3
3 Barcelona1812667%88.184.9+3.2
4 Panathinaikos1812667%88.785.5+3.2
5 Fenerbahce1711665%80.278.3+1.9
6 Monaco1710759%90.283.4+6.8
7 Real Madrid1710759%85.383.6+1.7
8 Olympiacos169756%87.984.0+3.9
9 Zalgiris Kaunas1810856%86.882.1+4.7
10 Crvena zvezda1810856%85.883.4+2.4
11 Olimpia Milano189950%84.885.0-0.2
12 Dubai189950%86.887.6-0.8
13 Virtus Bologna178947%81.682.2-0.6
14 Maccabi Tel Aviv1881044%90.391.4-1.1
15 Paris1861233%90.692.8-2.2
16 Baskonia1861233%87.691.1-3.5
17 Anadolu Efes1861233%81.485.6-4.2
18 Partizan1861233%80.889.1-8.3
19 Bayern1851328%77.584.6-7.1
20 Lyon-Villeurbanne1851328%78.487.4-9.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Monaco21262330100
Real Madrid2023272595
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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