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Nevada vs San Diego State Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 07 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 04:00
Final 68-73
36-34 32-39
Position#86
Record11-3
FormWWWWW
Points / game76.6
Allowed / game71.1
vs
Position#70
Record9-4
FormWLWWW
Points / game84.1
Allowed / game74.8
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Nevada v San Diego State
06 Jan 2026
NEVA68
SAN 73
25 Jan 2025
NEVA50
SAN 69
09 Feb 2024
NEVA70
SAN 66
31 Jan 2023
NEVA75
SAN 66
05 Mar 2022
NEVA78
SAN 79
29 Feb 2020
NEVA76
SAN 83
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nevada winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
San Diego State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NevadaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UC Davis
#139
L
71-75
71
75
-4
H19/11
NCAA
UC Santa Barbara
#146
W
77-64
77
64
+13
H22/11
NCAA
Washington
#218
L
66-83
66
83
-17
H27/11
NCAA
San Francisco
#191
W
81-65
81
65
+16
H28/11
NCAA
UC San Diego
#64
W
76-70
76
70
+6
H03/12
NCAA
Washington State
#291
W
78-64
78
64
+14
A07/12
NCAA
Duquesne
#166
W
78-75
78
75
+3
H14/12
NCAA
Boise State
#101
W
81-66
81
66
+15
H21/12
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
W
75-62
75
62
+13
A31/12
NCAA
Fresno State
#275
W
66-65
66
65
+1
A04/01
NCAA
1H
2H
33-33
38-42
32-28
45-36
28-34
38-49
38-37
43-28
35-27
41-43
31-32
47-32
42-35
36-40
36-26
45-40
37-36
38-26
21-26
45-39
143.8Avg total
74.9Scored
68.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)76.671.1147.7+5.679%
Season at home (10)77.170.6147.7+6.580%
Season away (4)75.572.2147.8+3.275%
Last 10 (10)74.968.9143.8+6.080%
Last 5 (5)75.666.4142.0+9.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)68.879.0147.8-10.20%
vs Similar ◀ (17)71.470.4141.7+1.059%
vs Weaker (8)78.864.0142.8+14.8100%
This opponent (San Diego State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
San Diego StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Michigan
#6
L
54-94
54
94
-40
A25/11
NCAA
Oregon
#293
W
97-80
97
80
+17
A26/11
NCAA
Baylor
#200
L
81-91
81
91
-10
H27/11
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#33
W
77-66
77
66
+11
H04/12
NCAA
Lamar
#286
W
89-71
89
71
+18
H11/12
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
81-58
81
58
+23
H18/12
NCAA
Arizona
#7
L
45-68
45
68
-23
A21/12
NCAA
Whittier
#567
W
121-59
121
59
+62
H22/12
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
81-68
81
68
+13
A31/12
NCAA
Boise State
#101
W
110-107 OT
110
107
+3
H04/01
NCAA
1H
2H
33-45
21-49
51-41
46-39
36-40
45-51
33-32
44-34
51-41
38-30
33-30
48-28
27-28
18-40
62-30
59-29
42-38
39-30
50-29
29-50
159.8Avg total
83.6Scored
76.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)84.174.8158.8+9.369%
Season at home (9)90.773.6164.2+17.178%
Season away (4)69.277.5146.8-8.250%
Last 10 (10)83.676.2159.8+7.470%
Last 5 (5)87.672.0159.6+15.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)58.776.0134.7-17.333%
vs Similar ◀ (12)76.174.4150.5+1.750%
vs Weaker (15)79.365.9145.1+13.487%
This opponent (Nevada) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +1.9+1.91st half: +6.4+6.42nd half2nd half: +4.1+4.12nd half: +0.7+0.7
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +1.9+1.91st half: +6.4+6.42nd half2nd half: +4.1+4.12nd half: +0.7+0.7
NevadaSan Diego State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
NevadaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UC Davis
#139
D
33-33
33
33
+0
H19/11
NCAA
UC Santa Barbara
#146
W
32-28
32
28
+4
H22/11
NCAA
Washington
#218
L
28-34
28
34
-6
H27/11
NCAA
San Francisco
#191
W
38-37
38
37
+1
H28/11
NCAA
UC San Diego
#64
W
35-27
35
27
+8
H03/12
NCAA
Washington State
#291
L
31-32
31
32
-1
A07/12
NCAA
Duquesne
#166
W
42-35
42
35
+7
H14/12
NCAA
Boise State
#101
W
36-26
36
26
+10
H21/12
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
W
37-36
37
36
+1
A31/12
NCAA
Fresno State
#275
L
21-26
21
26
-5
A04/01
NCAA
64.7Avg total
33.3Scored
31.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.932.665.5+0.247%-
Last 30 at home (18)35.231.666.8+3.761%-
Last 30 away (12)29.334.263.6-4.925%-
Last 10 (10)33.331.464.7+1.960%-
Last 5 (5)33.431.064.4+2.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)33.239.672.8-6.40%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)32.532.164.5+0.453%-
vs Weaker (8)33.529.563.0+4.062%-
This opponent (San Diego State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
San Diego StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Michigan
#6
L
33-45
33
45
-12
A25/11
NCAA
Oregon
#293
W
51-41
51
41
+10
A26/11
NCAA
Baylor
#200
L
36-40
36
40
-4
H27/11
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#33
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H04/12
NCAA
Lamar
#286
W
51-41
51
41
+10
H11/12
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
33-30
33
30
+3
H18/12
NCAA
Arizona
#7
L
27-28
27
28
-1
A21/12
NCAA
Whittier
#567
W
62-30
62
30
+32
H22/12
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
42-38
42
38
+4
A31/12
NCAA
Boise State
#101
W
50-29
50
29
+21
H04/01
NCAA
77.2Avg total
41.8Scored
35.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.331.967.2+3.463%-
Last 30 at home (19)36.630.467.0+6.274%-
Last 30 away (11)33.134.467.5-1.345%-
Last 10 (10)41.835.477.2+6.470%-
Last 5 (5)42.831.073.8+11.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)31.035.066.0-4.033%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)34.030.964.9+3.158%-
vs Weaker (15)37.232.069.2+5.273%-
This opponent (Nevada) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Nevada wins
8
San Diego State wins
Nevadalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/01/26AFresno State66-65
31/12/25AColorado State75-62
21/12/25HBoise State81-66
14/12/25HDuquesne78-75
07/12/25AWashington State78-64
03/12/25HUC San Diego76-70
28/11/25HSan Francisco81-65
27/11/25HWashington66-83
22/11/25HUC Santa Barbara77-64
19/11/25HUC Davis71-75
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/01/26HBoise State110-107 OT
31/12/25ASan Jose State81-68
22/12/25HWhittier121-59
21/12/25AArizona45-68
18/12/25HAir Force81-58
11/12/25HLamar89-71
04/12/25HUtah Valley State77-66
27/11/25HBaylor81-91
26/11/25AOregon97-80
25/11/25AMichigan54-94

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nevada
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW79%
HomeLWWWW80%
AwayLWWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games14104
Win %79%80%75%
Points / game76.677.175.5
Allowed / game71.170.672.2
Point differential+5.6+6.5+3.2
Avg total147.7147.7147.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%40%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won80% (5)75% (4)100% (1)
Overtime %7%10%0%
San Diego State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW69%
HomeWWWWW78%
AwayLWLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1394
Win %69%78%50%
Points / game84.190.769.2
Allowed / game74.873.677.5
Point differential+9.3+17.1-8.2
Avg total158.8164.2146.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+62%67%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %15%22%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mountain West conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Utah State1413193%86.666.9+19.6
2 New Mexico1512380%79.767.5+12.1
3 Nevada1411379%76.671.1+5.6
4 Wyoming1511473%84.171.4+12.7
5 San Diego State139469%84.174.8+9.3
6 Colorado State1510567%80.272.1+8.1
7 Boise State149564%78.172.0+6.1
8 Grand Canyon138562%75.568.8+6.7
9 UNLV147750%79.677.3+2.4
10 Fresno State157847%74.170.9+3.2
11 San Jose State1551033%73.376.5-3.2
12 Air Force1531220%62.974.9-12.1
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Nevada363268
San Diego State343973
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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