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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 12 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 124-112
32-34 22-25 39-26 31-27
Position#1
Record31-6
FormWLLWW
Points / game121.2
Allowed / game108.7
vs
Position#17
Record20-17
FormWLWLL
Points / game119.9
Allowed / game117.6
USANBA· Paycom Center
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Oklahoma City Thunder v Miami Heat
31 Dec 2026
OKC v MIA
upcoming
11 Jan 2026
OKC124
MIA112
12 Feb 2025
OKC115
MIA101
08 Mar 2024
OKC107
MIA100
14 Dec 2022
OKC108
MIA110
15 Nov 2021
OKC90
MIA103
22 Feb 2021
OKC94
MIA108
12 Aug 2020
OKC116
MIA115
17 Jan 2020
OKC108
MIA115
18 Mar 2019
OKC107
MIA116
23 Mar 2018
OKC105
MIA99
07 Nov 2016
OKC97
MIA85
17 Jan 2016
OKC99
MIA74
22 Mar 2015
OKC93
MIA75
20 Feb 2014
OKC81
MIA103
14 Feb 2013
OKC100
MIA110
14 Jun 2012
OKC96
MIA100
12 Jun 2012
OKC105
MIA94
25 Mar 2012
OKC103
MIA87
30 Jan 2011
OKC103
MIA108
16 Jan 2010
OKC98
MIA80
18 Jan 2009
OKC94
MIA104
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Oklahoma City Thunder winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Oklahoma City ThunderUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormThunder
Date
Competition
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
110-130
110
130
-20
103avg 111
A24/12
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
102-117
102
117
-15
87avg 111
H25/12
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
W
129-104
129
104
+25
122avg 111
H28/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
140-129
140
129
+11
136avg 111
H30/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
124-95
124
95
+29
117avg 111
H01/01
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
131-94
131
94
+37
135avg 111
A03/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
L
105-108
105
108
-3
91avg 111
A05/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
97-124
97
124
-27
71avg 111
H06/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
129-125 OT
129
125
+4
116avg 111
H08/01
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
117-116
117
116
+1
103avg 111
A10/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-31
31-27
22-29
28-43
36-41
24-28
19-26
23-22
32-29
32-33
38-24
27-18
35-38
35-36
43-29
27-26
38-30
35-25
26-21
25-19
34-23
30-22
31-21
36-28
26-20
23-22
24-32
32-34
33-33
17-34
21-32
26-25
31-22
27-31
33-33
23-28
25-35
21-30
35-29
36-22
232.6Avg total
118.4Scored
114.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (37)121.2108.7229.9+12.584%
Season at home (19)121.5108.4229.9+13.189%
Season away (18)120.9109.1230.0+11.978%
Last 10 (10)118.4114.2232.6+4.260%
Last 5 (5)115.8113.4229.2+2.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)106.0123.5229.5-17.50%
vs Weaker ◀ (28)122.1107.4229.5+14.686%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#4
L
125-132
125
132
-7
118avg 105
A21/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
91-112
91
112
-21
78avg 105
H24/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
126-111
126
111
+15
119avg 105
A27/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
142-116
142
116
+26
136avg 105
H28/12
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
W
147-123
147
123
+24
148avg 105
H30/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
118-112
118
112
+6
107avg 105
A02/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
115-125
115
125
-10
107avg 105
H03/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
125-106
125
106
+19
114avg 105
H04/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
94-122
94
122
-28
82avg 105
A07/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
L
99-123
99
123
-24
84avg 105
A11/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
37-30
25-36
37-39
26-27
16-21
28-30
23-31
24-30
32-32
31-19
27-33
36-27
29-28
30-32
39-34
44-22
41-29
22-34
47-36
37-24
33-26
30-28
31-27
24-31
25-27
25-29
36-34
29-35
43-39
27-23
23-15
32-29
29-27
25-34
23-32
17-29
18-36
27-25
27-38
27-24
236.4Avg total
118.2Scored
118.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (37)119.9117.6237.4+2.354%
Season at home (19)121.9116.9238.8+5.068%
Season away (18)117.7118.3236.0-0.639%
Last 10 (10)118.2118.2236.4+0.050%
Last 5 (5)110.2117.6227.8-7.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)123.5127.3250.8-3.833%
vs Similar (15)118.7118.0236.7+0.753%
vs Weaker (9)116.2110.8227.0+5.467%
This opponent (Oklahoma City Thunder) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +1.7+1.7Q1: +0.8+0.8Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -2.0-2.0Q3Q3: +1.6+1.6Q3: -0.6-0.6Q4Q4: +1.8+1.8Q4: +1.8+1.8
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +1.7+1.7Q1: +0.8+0.8Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -2.0-2.0Q3Q3: +1.6+1.6Q3: -0.6-0.6Q4Q4: +1.8+1.8Q4: +1.8+1.8
Oklahoma City ThunderMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Oklahoma City ThunderLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
San Antonio Spurs
#2
W
60-58
60
58
+2
A24/12
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
60-69
60
69
-9
H25/12
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
W
64-62
64
62
+2
H28/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
70-74
70
74
-4
H30/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
73-55
73
55
+18
H01/01
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
64-45
64
45
+19
A03/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
49-42
49
42
+7
A05/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
50-67
50
67
-17
H06/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
58-53
58
53
+5
H08/01
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
L
46-65
46
65
-19
A10/01
NBA
118.4Avg total
59.4Scored
59.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.954.0114.8+6.973%-
Last 30 at home (15)62.153.7115.9+8.480%-
Last 30 away (15)59.654.2113.8+5.467%-
Last 10 (10)59.459.0118.4+0.460%-
Last 5 (5)53.454.4107.8-1.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)60.063.5123.5-3.550%-
vs Weaker ◀ (28)60.953.3114.2+7.675%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#4
L
62-66
62
66
-4
A21/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
44-51
44
51
-7
H24/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
63-51
63
51
+12
A27/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
L
59-60
59
60
-1
H28/12
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
D
63-63
63
63
+0
H30/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
63-54
63
54
+9
A02/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
50-56
50
56
-6
H03/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
70-62
70
62
+8
H04/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
54-61
54
61
-7
A07/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
L
45-61
45
61
-16
A11/01
NBA
115.8Avg total
57.3Scored
58.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.858.8118.6+1.057%-
Last 30 at home (17)59.557.5117.0+2.165%-
Last 30 away (13)60.260.5120.6-0.346%-
Last 10 (10)57.358.5115.8-1.230%-
Last 5 (5)56.458.8115.2-2.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)60.863.0123.8-2.233%-
vs Similar (15)61.158.3119.4+2.967%-
vs Weaker (9)56.956.8113.7+0.156%-
This opponent (Oklahoma City Thunder) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Oklahoma City Thundertheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Oklahoma City Thunder: 118.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers64.8 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.2 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.4 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.732.4
59.2%
54.8%64.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.711.4
31.1%
35.8%34.2
🏀 Free throws24.119.4
80.5%
78.1%19.4
They take 91.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 118.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.2 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.6 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.4 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.130.1
50.9%
54.8%60.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.513.2
36.2%
35.8%39.6
🏀 Free throws22.218.4
82.9%
78.1%18.4
They take 95.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 12 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Oklahoma City Thunder
WWLLWWWWLL
Miami Heat
LLWLWWWWLL
#1
League position
#17
+4.1
Net rating
+0.2
115.2
Offensive rating
110.2
111.2
Defensive rating
110.0
54.2%
Effective FG%
52.2%
55.1%
Opp. effective FG%
56.6%
10.3%
Turnover %
13.4%
21.7%
Off. rebound %
28.7%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.23
31.1%
3-point %
36.2%
57.3%
Assist %
63.0%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence115.2 · 110.2Defence111.2 · 110.0Shooting54.2% · 52.2%3-point %31.1% · 36.2%Ball care10.3% · 13.4%Off. rebounds21.7% · 28.7%Free throws0.26 · 0.23Form (last 10/10)60% · 50%
■ Oklahoma City Thunder   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
10/01/26AMemphis Grizzlies117-116
08/01/26HUtah Jazz129-125 OT
06/01/26HCharlotte Hornets97-124
05/01/26APhoenix Suns105-108
03/01/26AGolden State Warriors131-94
01/01/26HPortland Trail Blazers124-95
30/12/25HAtlanta Hawks140-129
28/12/25HPhiladelphia 76ers129-104
25/12/25HSan Antonio Spurs102-117
24/12/25ASan Antonio Spurs110-130
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/01/26AIndiana Pacers99-123
07/01/26AMinnesota Timberwolves94-122
04/01/26HNew Orleans Pelicans125-106
03/01/26HMinnesota Timberwolves115-125
02/01/26ADetroit Pistons118-112
30/12/25HDenver Nuggets147-123
28/12/25HIndiana Pacers142-116
27/12/25AAtlanta Hawks126-111
24/12/25HToronto Raptors91-112
21/12/25ANew York Knicks125-132

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW84%
HomeWWWLW89%
AwayLLWLW78%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games371918
Win %84%89%78%
Points / game121.2121.5120.9
Allowed / game108.7108.4109.1
Point differential+12.5+13.1+11.9
Avg total229.9229.9230.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+59%63%56%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)100% (3)25% (4)
Overtime %8%11%6%
Miami Heat
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL54%
HomeLWWLW68%
AwayLWWLL39%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games371918
Win %54%68%39%
Points / game119.9121.9117.7
Allowed / game117.6116.9118.3
Point differential+2.3+5.0-0.6
Avg total237.4238.8236.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%37%28%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (9)83% (6)33% (3)
Overtime %3%5%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder3731684%121.2108.7+12.5
2 Detroit Pistons38281074%117.8111.2+6.6
3 San Antonio Spurs36251169%118.3112.8+5.6
4 Denver Nuggets38251366%123.1117.8+5.3
5 Los Angeles Lakers35231266%115.8115.8+0.0
6 Minnesota Timberwolves39251464%120.3115.1+5.2
7 Boston Celtics38241463%117.2110.4+6.7
8 Houston Rockets35221363%118.5110.7+7.7
9 New York Knicks37231462%119.2115.2+4.0
10 Phoenix Suns37231462%115.4111.6+3.9
11 Toronto Raptors39241562%114.5112.2+2.3
12 Philadelphia 76ers37211657%117.2115.5+1.6
13 Orlando Magic38211755%116.1114.7+1.4
14 Cleveland Cavaliers40221855%120.0117.6+2.4
15 Miami Heat37201754%119.9117.6+2.3
16 Golden State Warriors39211854%115.5113.4+2.2
17 Atlanta Hawks40192148%118.2118.5-0.3
18 Portland Trail Blazers40192148%116.3118.8-2.5
19 Chicago Bulls38182047%117.3120.8-3.5
20 Milwaukee Bucks38172145%113.1115.3-2.2
21 Memphis Grizzlies39172244%114.9116.2-1.3
22 Los Angeles Clippers38152339%111.9113.6-1.7
23 Charlotte Hornets39142536%116.3116.6-0.3
24 Dallas Mavericks39142536%113.0117.1-4.2
25 Utah Jazz38132534%119.0127.3-8.3
26 Brooklyn Nets36112531%108.8113.9-5.0
27 Washington Wizards37102727%113.3124.3-11.0
28 New Orleans Pelicans4193222%114.9122.4-7.5
29 Sacramento Kings3883021%109.8122.1-12.3
30 Indiana Pacers3983121%111.2119.0-7.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Oklahoma City Thunder32223931124
Miami Heat34252627112
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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