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Miami Heat vs Minnesota Timberwolves Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 03 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 22:00
Final 115-125
25-27 25-29 36-34 29-35
Position#17
Record19-14
FormLWWWW
Points / game121.3
Allowed / game117.4
vs
Position#10
Record21-13
FormWLLWL
Points / game118.8
Allowed / game114.6
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Miami Heat v Minnesota Timberwolves
21 Oct 2026
MIA106
MIN131
03 Jan 2026
MIA115
MIN125
07 Mar 2025
MIA104
MIN106
18 Dec 2023
MIA108
MIN112
26 Dec 2022
MIA113
MIN110
12 Mar 2022
MIA104
MIN113
07 May 2021
MIA121
MIN112
26 Feb 2020
MIA126
MIN129
30 Dec 2018
MIA104
MIN113
30 Oct 2017
MIA122
MIN125
17 Mar 2017
MIA123
MIN105
17 Nov 2015
MIA91
MIN103
08 Nov 2014
MIA102
MIN92
04 Apr 2014
MIA121
MIN122
18 Dec 2012
MIA103
MIN92
02 Nov 2010
MIA129
MIN97
23 Feb 2010
MIA88
MIN91
18 Feb 2009
MIA104
MIN111
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Minnesota Timberwolves winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Sacramento Kings
#27
L
111-127
111
127
-16
100avg 105
H07/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
96-106
96
106
-10
86avg 105
H16/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
106-95
106
95
+11
100avg 105
A19/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
116-129
116
129
-13
100avg 105
A20/12
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
125-132
125
132
-7
118avg 105
A21/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
91-112
91
112
-21
78avg 105
H24/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
126-111
126
111
+15
119avg 105
A27/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
142-116
142
116
+26
136avg 105
H28/12
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
W
147-123
147
123
+24
148avg 105
H30/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
118-112
118
112
+6
107avg 105
A02/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-34
24-38
23-29
33-26
22-23
30-23
25-28
19-32
30-27
24-22
23-24
29-22
29-30
29-28
31-34
27-37
37-30
25-36
37-39
26-27
16-21
28-30
23-31
24-30
32-32
31-19
27-33
36-27
29-28
30-32
39-34
44-22
41-29
22-34
47-36
37-24
33-26
30-28
31-27
24-31
234.1Avg total
117.8Scored
116.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (33)121.3117.4238.7+3.958%
Season at home (17)122.1117.1239.2+5.171%
Season away (16)120.4117.8238.1+2.644%
Last 10 (10)117.8116.3234.1+1.550%
Last 5 (5)124.8114.8239.6+10.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)120.3124.4244.7-4.129%
vs Similar ◀ (16)122.2118.1240.3+4.262%
vs Weaker (7)117.4109.7227.1+7.771%
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Minnesota TimberwolvesUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTimberwolves
Date
Competition
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
127-120
127
120
+7
124avg 109
A13/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
117-103
117
103
+14
107avg 109
H15/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
L
110-116
110
116
-6
98avg 109
H18/12
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
112-107
112
107
+5
100avg 109
H20/12
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
103-100
103
100
+3
96avg 109
H22/12
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
W
115-104
115
104
+11
102avg 109
H24/12
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
L
138-142 OT
138
142
-4
128avg 109
A26/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
L
107-123
107
123
-16
96avg 109
H28/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
136-101
136
101
+35
133avg 109
A30/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
102-126
102
126
-24
93avg 109
A31/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-27
33-36
27-28
39-29
20-27
31-25
37-32
29-19
27-29
35-32
21-27
27-28
23-33
25-18
35-34
29-22
23-29
25-31
27-15
28-25
31-28
27-24
27-27
30-25
29-32
26-25
23-35
37-23
30-33
33-29
23-36
21-25
21-23
34-27
40-28
41-23
26-33
23-37
24-28
29-28
230.9Avg total
116.7Scored
114.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (34)118.8114.6233.4+4.262%
Season at home (18)115.4110.1225.6+5.367%
Season away (16)122.5119.6242.1+2.956%
Last 10 (10)116.7114.2230.9+2.560%
Last 5 (5)119.6119.2238.8+0.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)115.0114.7229.7+0.367%
vs Similar ◀ (9)115.9117.8233.7-1.933%
vs Weaker (15)123.3111.3234.5+12.080%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +2.0+2.0Q1: -3.6-3.6Q2Q2: -1.7-1.7Q2: +0.8+0.8Q3Q3: -0.9-0.9Q3: -0.6-0.6Q4Q4: +2.1+2.1Q4: +6.3+6.3
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +2.0+2.0Q1: -3.6-3.6Q2Q2: -1.7-1.7Q2: +0.8+0.8Q3Q3: -0.9-0.9Q3: -0.6-0.6Q4Q4: +2.1+2.1Q4: +6.3+6.3
Miami HeatMinnesota Timberwolves
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sacramento Kings
#27
L
55-72
55
72
-17
H07/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
W
52-46
52
46
+6
H16/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
54-49
54
49
+5
A19/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
D
58-58
58
58
+0
A20/12
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
62-66
62
66
-4
A21/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
44-51
44
51
-7
H24/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
63-51
63
51
+12
A27/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
L
59-60
59
60
-1
H28/12
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
D
63-63
63
63
+0
H30/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
63-54
63
54
+9
A02/01
NBA
114.3Avg total
57.3Scored
57.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)61.359.7120.9+1.657%-
Last 30 at home (16)60.557.4117.9+3.169%-
Last 30 away (14)62.162.2124.4-0.143%-
Last 10 (10)57.357.0114.3+0.340%-
Last 5 (5)58.455.8114.2+2.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)60.462.4122.9-2.029%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)63.660.3123.9+3.369%-
vs Weaker (7)56.755.4112.1+1.357%-
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Minnesota TimberwolvesLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
61-63
61
63
-2
A13/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
L
51-52
51
52
-1
H15/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
62-61
62
61
+1
H18/12
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
48-51
48
51
-3
H20/12
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
L
48-60
48
60
-12
H22/12
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
W
58-52
58
52
+6
H24/12
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
L
55-57
55
57
-2
A26/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
63-62
63
62
+1
H28/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
55-50
55
50
+5
A30/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
49-70
49
70
-21
A31/12
NBA
112.8Avg total
55.0Scored
57.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.256.8114.0+0.440%-
Last 30 at home (16)58.756.2114.9+2.544%-
Last 30 away (14)55.557.5113.0-2.036%-
Last 10 (10)55.057.8112.8-2.840%-
Last 5 (5)56.058.2114.2-2.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)53.856.2110.0-2.333%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)53.460.2113.7-6.811%-
vs Weaker (15)60.855.0115.8+5.860%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 117.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.2 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.0 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.130.1
51.8%
54.8%60.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.613.0
36.5%
35.8%39.0
🏀 Free throws23.518.6
79.1%
78.1%18.6
They take 93.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Minnesota Timberwolvestheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Minnesota Timberwolves: 116.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.2 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.6 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.9 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.528.6
54.5%
54.8%57.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.313.2
33.6%
35.8%39.6
🏀 Free throws27.619.9
72.1%
78.1%19.9
They take 91.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 39.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 03 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WWWWLLLWLL
Minnesota Timberwolves
LWLLWWWLWW
#17
League position
#10
+1.6
Net rating
+2.4
113.4
Offensive rating
111.6
111.8
Defensive rating
109.2
52.9%
Effective FG%
52.7%
57.0%
Opp. effective FG%
51.5%
12.7%
Turnover %
11.0%
27.5%
Off. rebound %
25.8%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.30
36.5%
3-point %
33.6%
61.3%
Assist %
63.6%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence113.4 · 111.6Defence111.8 · 109.2Shooting52.9% · 52.7%3-point %36.5% · 33.6%Ball care12.7% · 11.0%Off. rebounds27.5% · 25.8%Free throws0.25 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)50% · 60%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Minnesota Timberwolves
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/01/26ADetroit Pistons118-112
30/12/25HDenver Nuggets147-123
28/12/25HIndiana Pacers142-116
27/12/25AAtlanta Hawks126-111
24/12/25HToronto Raptors91-112
21/12/25ANew York Knicks125-132
20/12/25ABoston Celtics116-129
19/12/25ABrooklyn Nets106-95
16/12/25HToronto Raptors96-106
07/12/25HSacramento Kings111-127
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/12/25AAtlanta Hawks102-126
30/12/25AChicago Bulls136-101
28/12/25HBrooklyn Nets107-123
26/12/25ADenver Nuggets138-142 OT
24/12/25HNew York Knicks115-104
22/12/25HMilwaukee Bucks103-100
20/12/25HOklahoma City Thunder112-107
18/12/25HMemphis Grizzlies110-116
15/12/25HSacramento Kings117-103
13/12/25AGolden State Warriors127-120

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW58%
HomeLLLWW71%
AwayWLLWW44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games331716
Win %58%71%44%
Points / game121.3122.1120.4
Allowed / game117.4117.1117.8
Point differential+3.9+5.1+2.6
Avg total238.7239.2238.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%35%31%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (9)83% (6)33% (3)
Overtime %3%6%0%
Minnesota Timberwolves
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL62%
HomeLWWWL67%
AwayWWLWL56%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games341816
Win %62%67%56%
Points / game118.8115.4122.5
Allowed / game114.6110.1119.6
Point differential+4.2+5.3+2.9
Avg total233.4225.6242.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%39%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won55% (11)71% (7)25% (4)
Overtime %9%0%19%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder3329488%122.3107.6+14.8
2 Detroit Pistons3425974%118.9112.8+6.1
3 San Antonio Spurs3223972%119.9114.2+5.8
4 Houston Rockets31211068%120.5111.5+9.1
5 Los Angeles Lakers31211068%117.1116.9+0.2
6 Denver Nuggets34231168%124.6117.9+6.8
7 New York Knicks32211166%120.2114.8+5.5
8 Boston Celtics33211264%117.0110.6+6.4
9 Minnesota Timberwolves34211362%118.8114.6+4.2
10 Phoenix Suns33201361%116.3112.7+3.6
11 Toronto Raptors34201459%114.2112.4+1.8
12 Miami Heat33191458%121.3117.4+3.9
13 Philadelphia 76ers32181456%116.6116.0+0.6
14 Cleveland Cavaliers36201656%119.4116.9+2.6
15 Orlando Magic33181555%116.4114.8+1.6
16 Golden State Warriors35181751%115.0113.9+1.0
17 Chicago Bulls34171750%118.8122.1-3.2
18 Atlanta Hawks36171947%119.0119.5-0.5
19 Memphis Grizzlies34151944%116.0116.9-0.9
20 Milwaukee Bucks35152043%113.3116.0-2.7
21 Portland Trail Blazers35152043%116.3119.9-3.6
22 Los Angeles Clippers33122136%112.3113.6-1.3
23 Utah Jazz33122136%119.8126.8-7.0
24 Dallas Mavericks35122334%113.6117.9-4.3
25 Charlotte Hornets34112332%115.9119.0-3.1
26 Brooklyn Nets32102231%108.9114.2-5.3
27 Washington Wizards3392427%113.4123.9-10.5
28 Sacramento Kings3582723%110.6122.5-11.8
29 New Orleans Pelicans3682822%115.4123.1-7.7
30 Indiana Pacers3562917%110.1119.3-9.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat25253629115
Minnesota Timberwolves27293435125
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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