PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 07 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 122-94
27-29 34-25 32-23 29-17
Position#10
Record23-13
FormLWLWW
Points / game119.6
Allowed / game114.6
vs
Position#17
Record20-15
FormWWWLW
Points / game121.2
Allowed / game117.3
USANBA· Target Center
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Minnesota Timberwolves v Miami Heat
06 Feb 2027
MIN v MIA
upcoming
06 Jan 2026
MIN122
MIA94
10 Nov 2024
MIN94
MIA95
28 Oct 2023
MIN106
MIA90
21 Nov 2022
MIN105
MIA101
24 Nov 2021
MIN113
MIA101
16 Apr 2021
MIN119
MIA111
27 Oct 2019
MIN116
MIA109
05 Apr 2019
MIN111
MIA109
24 Nov 2017
MIN97
MIA109
06 Feb 2017
MIN113
MIA115
05 Nov 2015
MIN84
MIA96
04 Feb 2015
MIN102
MIA101
07 Dec 2013
MIN82
MIA103
04 Mar 2013
MIN81
MIA97
30 Dec 2011
MIN101
MIA103
01 Apr 2011
MIN92
MIA111
03 Apr 2010
MIN84
MIA97
13 Jan 2009
MIN96
MIA99
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Minnesota Timberwolves winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Minnesota TimberwolvesUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTimberwolves
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
L
110-116
110
116
-6
98avg 110
H18/12
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
112-107
112
107
+5
100avg 110
H20/12
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
103-100
103
100
+3
96avg 110
H22/12
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
W
115-104
115
104
+11
102avg 110
H24/12
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
L
138-142 OT
138
142
-4
128avg 110
A26/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
L
107-123
107
123
-16
96avg 110
H28/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
136-101
136
101
+35
133avg 110
A30/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
102-126
102
126
-24
93avg 110
A31/12
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
W
125-115
125
115
+10
121avg 110
A03/01
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
141-115
141
115
+26
137avg 110
A04/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-29
35-32
21-27
27-28
23-33
25-18
35-34
29-22
23-29
25-31
27-15
28-25
31-28
27-24
27-27
30-25
29-32
26-25
23-35
37-23
30-33
33-29
23-36
21-25
21-23
34-27
40-28
41-23
26-33
23-37
24-28
29-28
27-25
29-25
34-36
35-29
38-28
35-30
35-21
33-36
233.8Avg total
118.9Scored
114.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (36)119.6114.6234.2+4.964%
Season at home (18)115.4110.1225.6+5.367%
Season away (18)123.7119.1242.8+4.661%
Last 10 (10)118.9114.9233.8+4.060%
Last 5 (5)122.2116.0238.2+6.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)115.0114.7229.7+0.367%
vs Similar ◀ (8)116.4119.2235.6-2.938%
vs Weaker (16)124.4111.5235.9+12.981%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
106-95
106
95
+11
100avg 106
A19/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
116-129
116
129
-13
100avg 106
A20/12
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
125-132
125
132
-7
118avg 106
A21/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
91-112
91
112
-21
78avg 106
H24/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
126-111
126
111
+15
119avg 106
A27/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
142-116
142
116
+26
136avg 106
H28/12
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
W
147-123
147
123
+24
148avg 106
H30/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
118-112
118
112
+6
107avg 106
A02/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
115-125
115
125
-10
107avg 106
H03/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
125-106
125
106
+19
114avg 106
H04/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-27
24-22
23-24
29-22
29-30
29-28
31-34
27-37
37-30
25-36
37-39
26-27
16-21
28-30
23-31
24-30
32-32
31-19
27-33
36-27
29-28
30-32
39-34
44-22
41-29
22-34
47-36
37-24
33-26
30-28
31-27
24-31
25-27
25-29
36-34
29-35
43-39
27-23
23-15
32-29
237.2Avg total
121.1Scored
116.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (35)121.2117.3238.5+3.957%
Season at home (19)121.9116.9238.8+5.068%
Season away (16)120.4117.8238.1+2.644%
Last 10 (10)121.1116.1237.2+5.060%
Last 5 (5)129.4116.4245.8+13.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)123.5127.3250.8-3.833%
vs Similar ◀ (16)120.4118.6239.0+1.956%
vs Weaker (8)118.4109.2227.6+9.175%
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.8-1.8Q1: +2.6+2.6Q2Q2: +1.4+1.4Q2: -1.0-1.0Q3Q3: +0.2+0.2Q3: +1.0+1.0Q4Q4: +4.6+4.6Q4: +2.4+2.4
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.8-1.8Q1: +2.6+2.6Q2Q2: +1.4+1.4Q2: -1.0-1.0Q3Q3: +0.2+0.2Q3: +1.0+1.0Q4Q4: +4.6+4.6Q4: +2.4+2.4
Minnesota TimberwolvesMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Minnesota TimberwolvesLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
62-61
62
61
+1
H18/12
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
48-51
48
51
-3
H20/12
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
L
48-60
48
60
-12
H22/12
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
W
58-52
58
52
+6
H24/12
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
L
55-57
55
57
-2
A26/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
63-62
63
62
+1
H28/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
55-50
55
50
+5
A30/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
49-70
49
70
-21
A31/12
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
W
56-50
56
50
+6
A03/01
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
73-58
73
58
+15
A04/01
NBA
113.8Avg total
56.7Scored
57.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.956.5114.4+1.447%-
Last 30 at home (15)58.755.8114.5+2.947%-
Last 30 away (15)57.157.1114.2-0.147%-
Last 10 (10)56.757.1113.8-0.460%-
Last 5 (5)59.258.0117.2+1.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)53.856.2110.0-2.333%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)53.659.2112.9-5.625%-
vs Weaker (16)61.655.2116.8+6.462%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
54-49
54
49
+5
A19/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
D
58-58
58
58
+0
A20/12
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
62-66
62
66
-4
A21/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
44-51
44
51
-7
H24/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
63-51
63
51
+12
A27/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
L
59-60
59
60
-1
H28/12
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
D
63-63
63
63
+0
H30/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
63-54
63
54
+9
A02/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
50-56
50
56
-6
H03/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
70-62
70
62
+8
H04/01
NBA
115.6Avg total
58.6Scored
57.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.859.6120.4+1.257%-
Last 30 at home (17)59.557.5117.0+2.165%-
Last 30 away (13)62.562.5124.9+0.046%-
Last 10 (10)58.657.0115.6+1.640%-
Last 5 (5)61.059.0120.0+2.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)60.863.0123.8-2.233%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)62.060.1122.1+1.962%-
vs Weaker (8)58.456.2114.6+2.162%-
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Minnesota Timberwolvestheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Minnesota Timberwolves: 118.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.3 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.2 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.829.7
57.3%
54.8%59.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.013.1
32.8%
35.8%39.3
🏀 Free throws27.320.2
74.0%
78.1%20.2
They take 91.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 40.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 121.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.8 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.2 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.1 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.229.9
51.4%
54.8%59.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.514.4
38.4%
35.8%43.2
🏀 Free throws22.018.1
82.3%
78.1%18.1
They take 95.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 07 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Minnesota Timberwolves
WWLWLLWWWL
Miami Heat
WLWWWWLLLW
#10
League position
#17
+3.8
Net rating
+5.0
113.4
Offensive rating
115.4
109.6
Defensive rating
110.5
53.8%
Effective FG%
53.8%
52.0%
Opp. effective FG%
56.9%
11.7%
Turnover %
12.8%
26.5%
Off. rebound %
27.9%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.23
32.8%
3-point %
38.4%
61.9%
Assist %
62.8%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence113.4 · 115.4Defence109.6 · 110.5Shooting53.8% · 53.8%3-point %32.8% · 38.4%Ball care11.7% · 12.8%Off. rebounds26.5% · 27.9%Free throws0.30 · 0.23Form (last 10/10)60% · 60%
■ Minnesota Timberwolves   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
04/01/26AWashington Wizards141-115
03/01/26AMiami Heat125-115
31/12/25AAtlanta Hawks102-126
30/12/25AChicago Bulls136-101
28/12/25HBrooklyn Nets107-123
26/12/25ADenver Nuggets138-142 OT
24/12/25HNew York Knicks115-104
22/12/25HMilwaukee Bucks103-100
20/12/25HOklahoma City Thunder112-107
18/12/25HMemphis Grizzlies110-116
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/01/26HNew Orleans Pelicans125-106
03/01/26HMinnesota Timberwolves115-125
02/01/26ADetroit Pistons118-112
30/12/25HDenver Nuggets147-123
28/12/25HIndiana Pacers142-116
27/12/25AAtlanta Hawks126-111
24/12/25HToronto Raptors91-112
21/12/25ANew York Knicks125-132
20/12/25ABoston Celtics116-129
19/12/25ABrooklyn Nets106-95

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW64%
HomeLWWWL67%
AwayLWLWW61%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games361818
Win %64%67%61%
Points / game119.6115.4123.7
Allowed / game114.6110.1119.1
Point differential+4.9+5.3+4.6
Avg total234.2225.6242.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+36%39%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won55% (11)71% (7)25% (4)
Overtime %8%0%17%
Miami Heat
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW57%
HomeLWWLW68%
AwayWLLWW44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games351916
Win %57%68%44%
Points / game121.2121.9120.4
Allowed / game117.3116.9117.8
Point differential+3.9+5.0+2.6
Avg total238.5238.8238.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+34%37%31%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (9)83% (6)33% (3)
Overtime %3%5%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder3529683%121.1108.1+13.1
2 Detroit Pistons3627975%118.8112.1+6.7
3 San Antonio Spurs33231070%119.6114.2+5.5
4 Los Angeles Lakers32221069%117.2116.8+0.4
5 Houston Rockets33221167%119.4111.0+8.4
6 Denver Nuggets36241267%124.4118.3+6.1
7 Boston Celtics35231266%117.8110.5+7.3
8 Minnesota Timberwolves36231364%119.6114.6+4.9
9 New York Knicks34211362%119.3115.4+3.9
10 Toronto Raptors36221461%114.9112.2+2.7
11 Phoenix Suns35211460%115.5112.1+3.4
12 Miami Heat35201557%121.2117.3+3.9
13 Philadelphia 76ers34191556%117.2116.4+0.9
14 Cleveland Cavaliers38211755%119.2116.8+2.4
15 Orlando Magic35191654%116.8115.3+1.5
16 Golden State Warriors37191851%114.8113.6+1.2
17 Chicago Bulls36171947%117.8121.6-3.8
18 Portland Trail Blazers37172046%116.9119.6-2.7
19 Atlanta Hawks38172145%118.5119.9-1.4
20 Milwaukee Bucks36162044%113.3115.5-2.2
21 Memphis Grizzlies35152043%116.0117.0-1.0
22 Los Angeles Clippers35132237%112.1114.2-2.1
23 Charlotte Hornets36132336%116.1117.9-1.8
24 Dallas Mavericks36132336%113.5117.5-4.0
25 Utah Jazz35122334%119.6127.0-7.4
26 Brooklyn Nets33112233%109.5114.3-4.8
27 Washington Wizards35102529%113.6124.0-10.4
28 Sacramento Kings3682822%110.3122.2-12.0
29 New Orleans Pelicans3782922%115.2123.1-8.0
30 Indiana Pacers3763116%110.8119.7-8.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Minnesota Timberwolves27343229122
Miami Heat2925231794
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.