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Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 30 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 147-123
41-29 22-34 47-36 37-24
Position#17
Record17-14
FormLLLWW
Points / game120.5
Allowed / game117.4
vs
Position#6
Record22-9
FormLWLWL
Points / game125.8
Allowed / game117.5
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Miami Heat v Denver Nuggets
21 Mar 2027
MIA v DEN
upcoming
29 Dec 2025
MIA147
DEN123
17 Jan 2025
MIA113
DEN133
13 Mar 2024
MIA88
DEN100
09 Jun 2023
MIA95
DEN108
07 Jun 2023
MIA94
DEN109
13 Feb 2023
MIA108
DEN112
29 Nov 2021
MIA111
DEN120
27 Jan 2021
MIA82
DEN109
08 Jan 2019
MIA99
DEN103
19 Mar 2018
MIA149
DEN141
02 Apr 2017
MIA113
DEN116
14 Mar 2016
MIA124
DEN119
20 Mar 2015
MIA108
DEN91
14 Mar 2014
MIA107
DEN111
03 Nov 2012
MIA119
DEN116
19 Mar 2011
MIA103
DEN98
06 Nov 2009
MIA96
DEN88
10 Feb 2009
MIA82
DEN99
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Dallas Mavericks
#24
L
108-118
108
118
-10
94avg 105
A04/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
L
105-106
105
106
-1
100avg 105
A06/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
L
111-127
111
127
-16
100avg 105
H07/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
96-106
96
106
-10
86avg 105
H16/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
106-95
106
95
+11
100avg 105
A19/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
116-129
116
129
-13
100avg 105
A20/12
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
125-132
125
132
-7
118avg 105
A21/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
91-112
91
112
-21
78avg 105
H24/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
126-111
126
111
+15
119avg 105
A27/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
142-116
142
116
+26
136avg 105
H28/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
33-28
21-36
26-29
28-25
28-30
32-27
19-30
26-19
31-34
24-38
23-29
33-26
22-23
30-23
25-28
19-32
30-27
24-22
23-24
29-22
29-30
29-28
31-34
27-37
37-30
25-36
37-39
26-27
16-21
28-30
23-31
24-30
32-32
31-19
27-33
36-27
29-28
30-32
39-34
44-22
227.8Avg total
112.6Scored
115.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)120.5117.4237.9+3.255%
Season at home (16)120.6116.7237.2+3.969%
Season away (15)120.5118.1238.7+2.440%
Last 10 (10)112.6115.2227.8-2.630%
Last 5 (5)120.0120.0240.0+0.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)119.9123.7243.6-3.929%
vs Similar ◀ (15)120.6117.7238.3+2.960%
vs Weaker (8)121.0110.2231.2+10.875%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
134-133
134
133
+1
129avg 115
A06/12
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
W
115-106
115
106
+9
110avg 115
A07/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
136-105
136
105
+31
139avg 115
A12/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
W
128-125 OT
128
125
+3
119avg 115
H16/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
126-115
126
115
+11
124avg 115
H19/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
L
101-115
101
115
-14
84avg 115
H20/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
135-112
135
112
+23
139avg 115
H23/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
L
130-131
130
131
-1
133avg 115
A24/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
W
142-138 OT
142
138
+4
133avg 115
H26/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
L
126-127
126
127
-1
126avg 115
A28/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-41
31-32
40-30
40-30
34-34
23-24
30-23
28-25
41-26
36-28
32-27
27-24
24-30
34-21
31-35
28-31
25-32
43-22
31-31
27-30
29-26
16-27
21-29
35-33
40-15
29-31
34-38
32-28
27-41
29-25
47-37
27-28
32-29
25-26
35-23
23-37
31-23
31-25
31-36
33-43
248.0Avg total
127.3Scored
120.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)125.8117.5243.4+8.371%
Season at home (15)126.1118.1244.3+8.067%
Season away (16)125.5117.0242.5+8.575%
Last 10 (10)127.3120.7248.0+6.670%
Last 5 (5)126.8124.6251.4+2.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (13)125.6118.6244.2+7.085%
vs Weaker (17)125.6115.6241.2+10.165%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +0.4+0.4Q1: +0.9+0.9Q2Q2: -1.7-1.7Q2: +3.6+3.6Q3Q3: -3.8-3.8Q3: +2.3+2.3Q4Q4: +2.5+2.5Q4: -0.9-0.9
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +0.4+0.4Q1: +0.9+0.9Q2Q2: -1.7-1.7Q2: +3.6+3.6Q3Q3: -3.8-3.8Q3: +2.3+2.3Q4Q4: +2.5+2.5Q4: -0.9-0.9
Miami HeatDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dallas Mavericks
#24
L
54-64
54
64
-10
A04/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
60-57
60
57
+3
A06/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
L
55-72
55
72
-17
H07/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
W
52-46
52
46
+6
H16/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
54-49
54
49
+5
A19/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
D
58-58
58
58
+0
A20/12
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
62-66
62
66
-4
A21/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
44-51
44
51
-7
H24/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
63-51
63
51
+12
A27/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
L
59-60
59
60
-1
H28/12
NBA
113.5Avg total
56.1Scored
57.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)61.859.1121.0+2.760%-
Last 30 at home (16)60.156.9117.0+3.275%-
Last 30 away (14)63.861.7125.5+2.143%-
Last 10 (10)56.157.4113.5-1.340%-
Last 5 (5)57.257.2114.4+0.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)59.662.4122.0-2.929%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)63.760.1123.8+3.573%-
vs Weaker (8)60.454.4114.8+6.062%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
54-73
54
73
-19
A06/12
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
57-58
57
58
-1
A07/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
77-54
77
54
+23
A12/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
W
58-51
58
51
+7
H16/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
68-54
68
54
+14
H19/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
L
45-53
45
53
-8
H20/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
69-46
69
46
+23
H23/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
L
56-66
56
66
-10
A24/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
W
57-55
57
55
+2
H26/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
62-48
62
48
+14
A28/12
NBA
116.1Avg total
60.3Scored
55.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)61.956.7118.6+5.270%-
Last 30 at home (15)63.655.4119.0+8.287%-
Last 30 away (15)60.258.0118.2+2.253%-
Last 10 (10)60.355.8116.1+4.560%-
Last 5 (5)57.853.6111.4+4.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (13)59.158.8117.9+0.246%-
vs Weaker (17)64.155.1119.1+9.088%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 112.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.6 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.6 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.4 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.330.3
51.1%
54.8%60.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.711.2
34.3%
35.8%33.6
🏀 Free throws23.718.4
77.6%
78.1%18.4
They take 92.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 127.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.8 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers46.2 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.3 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.130.4
57.3%
54.8%60.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.915.4
42.9%
35.8%46.2
🏀 Free throws24.920.3
81.5%
78.1%20.3
They take 89.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 30 Dec 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WWLLLWLLLL
Denver Nuggets
LWLWLWWWWW
#17
League position
#6
-2.3
Net rating
+6.4
109.0
Offensive rating
122.8
111.4
Defensive rating
116.4
51.2%
Effective FG%
60.1%
56.4%
Opp. effective FG%
56.4%
12.6%
Turnover %
12.1%
25.0%
Off. rebound %
21.2%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.28
34.3%
3-point %
42.9%
60.5%
Assist %
65.9%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence109.0 · 122.8Defence111.4 · 116.4Shooting51.2% · 60.1%3-point %34.3% · 42.9%Ball care12.6% · 12.1%Off. rebounds25.0% · 21.2%Free throws0.26 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)30% · 70%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Miami Heat wins
9
Denver Nuggets wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/12/25HIndiana Pacers142-116
27/12/25AAtlanta Hawks126-111
24/12/25HToronto Raptors91-112
21/12/25ANew York Knicks125-132
20/12/25ABoston Celtics116-129
19/12/25ABrooklyn Nets106-95
16/12/25HToronto Raptors96-106
07/12/25HSacramento Kings111-127
06/12/25AOrlando Magic105-106
04/12/25ADallas Mavericks108-118
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/12/25AOrlando Magic126-127
26/12/25HMinnesota Timberwolves142-138 OT
24/12/25ADallas Mavericks130-131
23/12/25HUtah Jazz135-112
20/12/25HHouston Rockets101-115
19/12/25HOrlando Magic126-115
16/12/25HHouston Rockets128-125 OT
12/12/25ASacramento Kings136-105
07/12/25ACharlotte Hornets115-106
06/12/25AAtlanta Hawks134-133

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW55%
HomeWLLLW69%
AwayLWLLW40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311615
Win %55%69%40%
Points / game120.5120.6120.5
Allowed / game117.4116.7118.1
Point differential+3.2+3.9+2.4
Avg total237.9237.2238.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%31%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (9)83% (6)33% (3)
Overtime %3%6%0%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL71%
HomeWWLWW67%
AwayWWWLL75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311516
Win %71%67%75%
Points / game125.8126.1125.5
Allowed / game117.5118.1117.0
Point differential+8.3+8.0+8.5
Avg total243.4244.3242.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+48%47%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (10)40% (5)40% (5)
Overtime %10%13%6%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder3026487%121.4107.7+13.7
2 Detroit Pistons3224875%118.8112.9+6.0
3 San Antonio Spurs2921872%120.0113.6+6.4
4 Denver Nuggets3122971%125.8117.5+8.3
5 New York Knicks2920969%120.2113.9+6.3
6 Los Angeles Lakers2920969%117.1116.4+0.8
7 Houston Rockets29191066%120.3111.7+8.6
8 Minnesota Timberwolves32201262%118.8114.7+4.1
9 Boston Celtics31191261%116.5110.5+6.0
10 Phoenix Suns31191261%116.0112.5+3.5
11 Toronto Raptors32191359%114.8112.8+2.0
12 Orlando Magic30171357%117.0115.0+2.0
13 Miami Heat31171455%120.5117.4+3.2
14 Philadelphia 76ers30161453%115.7115.6+0.0
15 Cleveland Cavaliers33171652%119.5117.8+1.8
16 Golden State Warriors32161650%114.9113.3+1.7
17 Chicago Bulls31151648%118.8122.0-3.2
18 Memphis Grizzlies32151747%115.2115.8-0.6
19 Atlanta Hawks33151845%118.8120.1-1.3
20 Milwaukee Bucks33141942%113.0115.9-2.9
21 Portland Trail Blazers32131941%116.6120.1-3.5
22 Utah Jazz31121939%120.5127.1-6.6
23 Dallas Mavericks33122136%113.5117.5-4.0
24 Brooklyn Nets29101934%109.8113.7-3.9
25 Charlotte Hornets32112134%115.5118.5-3.0
26 Los Angeles Clippers31102132%111.5114.8-3.3
27 Sacramento Kings3282425%111.7122.1-10.4
28 New Orleans Pelicans3382524%115.2122.6-7.3
29 Washington Wizards3172423%113.2125.0-11.9
30 Indiana Pacers3262619%109.8119.2-9.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat41224737147
Denver Nuggets29343624123
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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