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Pesaro vs Virtus Roma Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 28 Feb 2021
Tip-off: 17:15
Scheduled
Position#10
Record10-9
FormLWWWL
Points / game83.0
Allowed / game81.6
vs
Position#16
Record2-7
FormLWLLL
Points / game74.9
Allowed / game87.7
ItalyLega ARound 20
Domestic2020-21
Meetings · Pesaro v Virtus Roma
28 Feb 2021
PES v VRO
upcoming
07 Sep 2020
PES104
VRO60
15 Mar 2020
PES v VRO
upcoming
08 Nov 2014
PES89
VRO87
08 Dec 2013
PES77
VRO82
30 Sep 2012
PES71
VRO75
02 May 2012
PES83
VRO75
24 Oct 2010
PES76
VRO69
15 Nov 2009
PES73
VRO84
23 Nov 2008
PES106
VRO93
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pesaro win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Virtus Roma win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PesaroItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
80-100
80
100
-20
A30/12
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#2
L
93-97
93
97
-4
A03/01
Lega A
Brescia
#11
W
98-88
98
88
+10
H10/01
Lega A
Sassari
#5
L
74-99
74
99
-25
A17/01
Lega A
Cantu
#15
W
107-83
107
83
+24
H24/01
Lega A
Venezia
#4
L
65-78
65
78
-13
H31/01
Lega A
Trento
#8
W
81-70
81
70
+11
A07/02
Lega A
Sassari
#5
W
115-110 OT
115
110
+5
A12/02
Italian Cup
Brindisi
#3
W
74-69
74
69
+5
A13/02
Italian Cup
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
59-87
59
87
-28
A14/02
Italian Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-22
22-30
14-23
22-25
18-21
31-18
23-25
21-33
16-22
24-23
28-15
30-28
19-23
22-21
20-28
13-27
26-20
27-18
29-14
25-31
20-19
14-13
15-15
16-31
26-15
13-21
19-15
23-19
24-26
25-27
21-23
29-23
15-12
26-16
11-17
22-24
15-21
6-27
15-26
23-13
172.7Avg total
84.6Scored
88.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)83.081.6164.6+1.453%
Season at home (10)83.079.1162.1+3.960%
Season away (9)83.084.4167.4-1.444%
Last 10 (10)84.688.1172.7-3.550%
Last 5 (5)78.882.8161.6-4.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)79.889.7169.5-9.927%
vs Similar (15)81.378.6159.9+2.760%
vs Weaker ◀ (3)92.361.7154.0+30.7100%
This opponent (Virtus Roma) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Virtus RomaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brindisi
#4
L
62-98
62
98
-36
A14/09
Lega A - Super Cup
Fortitudo Bologna
#14
W
81-76
81
76
+5
H27/09
Lega A
Brindisi
#3
L
67-92
67
92
-25
A04/10
Lega A
Sassari
#5
L
72-92
72
92
-20
H11/10
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#2
L
71-93
71
93
-22
A18/10
Lega A
Pesaro
#10
L
69-84
69
84
-15
H25/10
Lega A
Brescia
#11
W
70-64
70
64
+6
A31/10
Lega A
Venezia
#4
L
71-89
71
89
-18
H08/11
Lega A
Varese
#12
L
88-98
88
98
-10
A15/11
Lega A
Cantu
#15
L
85-101
85
101
-16
A22/11
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
13-19
20-20
12-32
17-27
20-20
24-12
20-28
17-16
15-22
14-25
20-27
18-18
10-21
13-23
21-18
28-30
16-25
14-28
17-24
24-16
14-18
18-22
17-23
20-21
18-29
16-12
20-10
16-13
15-28
28-24
10-14
18-23
17-20
16-28
28-23
27-27
21-23
15-23
27-28
22-27
162.3Avg total
73.6Scored
88.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)74.987.7162.6-12.822%
Season at home (4)73.285.2158.5-12.025%
Season away (5)76.289.6165.8-13.420%
Last 10 (10)73.688.7162.3-15.120%
Last 5 (5)76.687.2163.8-10.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)74.490.9165.3-16.415%
vs Similar (2)81.076.5157.5+4.550%
vs Weaker (1)92.083.0175.0+9.0100%
This opponent (Pesaro) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: -6.6-6.6Q2Q2: -0.4-0.4Q2: -3.9-3.9Q3Q3: -0.6-0.6Q3: -3.5-3.5Q4Q4: -3.0-3.0Q4: -1.1-1.1
PesaroVirtus Roma
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PesaroLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
44-52
44
52
-8
A30/12
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#2
W
49-39
49
39
+10
A03/01
Lega A
Brescia
#11
L
40-45
40
45
-5
H10/01
Lega A
Sassari
#5
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A17/01
Lega A
Cantu
#15
W
53-38
53
38
+15
H24/01
Lega A
Venezia
#4
W
34-32
34
32
+2
H31/01
Lega A
Trento
#8
W
39-36
39
36
+3
A07/02
Lega A
Sassari
#5
L
49-53
49
53
-4
A12/02
Italian Cup
Brindisi
#3
W
41-28
41
28
+13
A13/02
Italian Cup
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
21-48
21
48
-27
A14/02
Italian Cup
82.6Avg total
41.1Scored
41.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.439.680.0+0.847%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.238.277.4+1.050%-
Last 30 away (16)41.440.982.3+0.644%-
Last 10 (10)41.141.582.6-0.450%-
Last 5 (5)36.839.476.2-2.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)40.541.381.7-0.855%-
vs Similar (15)38.939.978.7-1.033%-
vs Weaker ◀ (3)45.028.073.0+17.0100%-
This opponent (Virtus Roma) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Virtus RomaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brindisi
#4
L
33-39
33
39
-6
A14/09
Lega A - Super Cup
Fortitudo Bologna
#14
W
44-32
44
32
+12
H27/09
Lega A
Brindisi
#3
L
29-47
29
47
-18
A04/10
Lega A
Sassari
#5
L
23-44
23
44
-21
H11/10
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#2
L
30-53
30
53
-23
A18/10
Lega A
Pesaro
#10
L
32-40
32
40
-8
H25/10
Lega A
Brescia
#11
L
34-41
34
41
-7
A31/10
Lega A
Venezia
#4
L
43-52
43
52
-9
H08/11
Lega A
Varese
#12
L
33-48
33
48
-15
A15/11
Lega A
Cantu
#15
L
36-46
36
46
-10
A22/11
Lega A
77.9Avg total
33.7Scored
44.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.947.184.0-10.220%-
Last 30 at home (14)36.445.381.6-8.929%-
Last 30 away (16)37.348.786.0-11.412%-
Last 10 (10)33.744.277.9-10.510%-
Last 5 (5)35.645.481.0-9.80%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)35.948.284.1-12.311%-
vs Similar (2)46.535.582.0+11.0100%-
vs Weaker (1)44.040.084.0+4.0100%-
This opponent (Pesaro) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Pesarotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pesaro: 83.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.0 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.9 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.5 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.819.5
50.3%
51.2%39.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.311.3
39.9%
35.9%33.9
🏀 Free throws13.810.5
76.1%
75.8%10.5
They take 67.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Virtus Romatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Virtus Roma: 75.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.8 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.2 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.2 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.620.9
52.8%
51.2%41.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.57.4
31.5%
35.9%22.2
🏀 Free throws17.011.2
65.9%
75.8%11.2
They take 63.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 28 Feb 2021 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Pesaro
LWWWLWLWLL
Virtus Roma
LLLWLLLLWL
#10
League position
#16
-0.8
Net rating
-16.4
114.4
Offensive rating
100.3
115.2
Defensive rating
116.7
54.3%
Effective FG%
50.7%
58.2%
Opp. effective FG%
54.3%
16.2%
Turnover %
16.6%
31.4%
Off. rebound %
21.5%
0.21
Free-throw rate
0.27
39.9%
3-point %
31.5%
59.4%
Assist %
56.9%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence114.4 · 100.3Defence115.2 · 116.7Shooting54.3% · 50.7%3-point %39.9% · 31.5%Ball care16.2% · 16.6%Off. rebounds31.4% · 21.5%Free throws0.21 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)50% · 20%
■ Pesaro   ■ Virtus Roma
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Pesaro wins
5
Virtus Roma wins
DateGameScore
25/10/20Virtus Roma v Pesaro69-84
10/09/20Virtus Roma v Pesaro56-89
07/09/20Pesaro v Virtus Roma104-60
17/11/19Virtus Roma v Pesaro92-83
28/02/15Virtus Roma v Pesaro76-80
08/11/14Pesaro v Virtus Roma89-87
22/03/14Virtus Roma v Pesaro96-85
08/12/13Pesaro v Virtus Roma77-82
20/01/13Virtus Roma v Pesaro65-64
30/09/12Pesaro v Virtus Roma71-75
Pesarolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/02/21AOlimpia Milano59-87
13/02/21ABrindisi74-69
12/02/21ASassari115-110 OT
07/02/21ATrento81-70
31/01/21HVenezia65-78
24/01/21HCantu107-83
17/01/21ASassari74-99
10/01/21HBrescia98-88
03/01/21AOlimpia Milano93-97
30/12/20AVirtus Bologna80-100
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/11/20ACantu85-101
15/11/20AVarese88-98
08/11/20HVenezia71-89
31/10/20ABrescia70-64
25/10/20HPesaro69-84
18/10/20AOlimpia Milano71-93
11/10/20HSassari72-92
04/10/20ABrindisi67-92
27/09/20HFortitudo Bologna81-76
14/09/20ABrindisi62-98

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Pesaro
Lega A 2020-21
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW53%
HomeLWWWL60%
AwayWLLLW44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19109
Win %53%60%44%
Points / game83.083.083.0
Allowed / game81.679.184.4
Point differential+1.4+3.9-1.4
Avg total164.6162.1167.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+47%50%44%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %5%10%0%
Virtus Roma
Lega A 2020-21
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL22%
HomeWLLL25%
AwayLLWLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games945
Win %22%25%20%
Points / game74.973.276.2
Allowed / game87.785.289.6
Point differential-12.8-12.0-13.4
Avg total162.6158.5165.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Olimpia Milano1917289%89.174.9+14.2
2 Sassari1914574%91.685.2+6.4
3 Brindisi1914574%85.879.5+6.3
4 Virtus Bologna1913668%85.677.1+8.5
5 Venezia2013765%80.977.5+3.5
6 Pesaro1910953%83.081.6+1.4
7 Trieste1991047%80.379.6+0.7
8 Treviso1881044%84.789.9-5.2
9 Brescia1981142%81.683.8-2.2
10 Reggiana1871139%75.480.6-5.2
11 Cremona1971237%84.887.6-2.8
12 Fortitudo Bologna1971237%78.581.9-3.5
13 Trento1961332%77.580.8-3.3
14 Cantu1961332%79.284.2-5.0
15 Varese2061430%80.888.8-8.0
16 Virtus Roma92722%74.987.7-12.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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