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Real Madrid vs Zalgiris Kaunas Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 25 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 19:45
Scheduled
Position#5
Record7-4
FormWWLWW
Points / game98.5
Allowed / game90.1
vs
Form · last 5 games
6.3/10
Above normal
5.1/10
Around normal
Position#8
Record7-4
FormWWWWW
Points / game85.6
Allowed / game82.4
EuropeEuroleagueRound 14· Movistar Arena
European cup2026
Meetings · Real Madrid v Zalgiris Kaunas
25 Nov 2026
MAD v ZAL
upcoming
20 Nov 2025
MAD100
ZAL99
12 Dec 2024
MAD83
ZAL92
17 Oct 2023
MAD93
ZAL79
23 Feb 2023
MAD96
ZAL69
12 Nov 2021
MAD95
ZAL82
25 Feb 2021
MAD70
ZAL58
04 Apr 2019
MAD86
ZAL93
22 Mar 2018
MAD88
ZAL81
08 Dec 2016
MAD96
ZAL91
15 Jan 2016
MAD92
ZAL86
10 Apr 2015
MAD99
ZAL83
17 Oct 2014
MAD80
ZAL71
21 Feb 2014
MAD108
ZAL72
22 Nov 2013
MAD95
ZAL67
11 Jan 2013
MAD75
ZAL74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Real Madrid win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Zalgiris Kaunas win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Real MadridLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMadrid
Date
Competition
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#16
W
111-92
111
92
+19
109avg 90
H15/10
Euroleague
Bilbao
#8
W
119-84
119
84
+35
120avg 90
H18/10
ACB
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
W
113-99
113
99
+14
108avg 90
A22/10
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#17
W
122-86
122
86
+36
131avg 90
A25/10
ACB
Baskonia
#20
W
104-86
104
86
+18
102avg 90
A27/10
Euroleague
Fenerbahce
#7
W
95-76
95
76
+19
90avg 90
H29/10
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
W
90-79
90
79
+11
82avg 90
H01/11
ACB
Panathinaikos
#1
L
112-115 OT
112
115
-3
no box
H04/11
Euroleague
Murcia
#11
W
90-71
90
71
+19
no box
H08/11
ACB
Crvena zvezda
#6
W
105-84
105
84
+21
no box
H12/11
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-25
34-23
16-23
34-21
36-13
26-22
27-22
30-27
23-30
28-22
30-21
32-26
31-21
23-19
27-23
41-23
30-19
26-27
26-23
22-17
22-24
25-18
23-13
25-21
14-17
25-14
25-22
26-26
18-24
30-27
25-23
28-27
22-20
25-19
16-16
27-16
38-20
18-21
26-18
23-25
193.3Avg total
106.1Scored
87.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)98.590.1188.5+8.464%
Season at home (5)101.888.6190.4+13.280%
Season away (6)95.791.3187.0+4.350%
Last 10 (10)106.187.2193.3+18.990%
Last 5 (5)98.485.0183.4+13.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (7)92.389.4181.7+2.943%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)98.689.1187.7+9.561%
This opponent (Zalgiris Kaunas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Zalgiris KaunasLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormKaunas
Date
Competition
Anadolu Efes
#13
L
70-85
70
85
-15
63avg 89
H16/10
Euroleague
Taurage
#9
W
96-76
96
76
+20
95avg 89
H18/10
LKL
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#16
W
105-85
105
85
+20
106avg 89
H23/10
Euroleague
Jonava
#8
W
86-63
86
63
+23
93avg 89
H25/10
LKL
Virtus Bologna
#15
W
91-74
91
74
+17
89avg 89
A28/10
Euroleague
Partizan
#11
W
87-80
87
80
+7
84avg 89
H30/10
Euroleague
Rytas
#3
W
94-89
94
89
+5
no box
A02/11
LKL
Besiktas
#14
W
83-67
83
67
+16
no box
A06/11
Euroleague
Juventus
#7
W
94-85
94
85
+9
no box
A08/11
LKL
Olimpia Milano
#19
W
86-83
86
83
+3
no box
A12/11
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
12-21
24-21
20-25
14-18
25-23
18-19
30-14
23-20
29-20
21-14
31-25
24-26
24-15
17-11
24-14
21-23
14-22
23-13
28-18
26-21
27-21
17-19
25-17
18-23
25-21
17-28
28-20
24-20
20-17
25-14
17-13
21-23
21-17
27-25
12-20
34-23
18-25
27-16
18-11
23-31
167.9Avg total
89.2Scored
78.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)85.682.4168.0+3.364%
Season at home (4)88.285.8174.0+2.550%
Season away (7)84.180.4164.6+3.771%
Last 10 (10)89.278.7167.9+10.590%
Last 5 (5)88.880.8169.6+8.0100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)91.093.0184.0-2.00%
vs Similar (4)84.584.2168.8+0.275%
vs Weaker (25)93.478.2171.6+15.292%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +4.8+4.8Q1: +1.3+1.3Q2Q2: +4.8+4.8Q2: +3.6+3.6Q3Q3: +3.7+3.7Q3: +5.6+5.6Q4Q4: +5.9+5.9Q4: +0.0+0.0
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +4.8+4.8Q1: +1.3+1.3Q2Q2: +4.8+4.8Q2: +3.6+3.6Q3Q3: +3.7+3.7Q3: +5.6+5.6Q4Q4: +5.9+5.9Q4: +0.0+0.0
Real MadridZalgiris Kaunas
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Real MadridLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#16
W
61-48
61
48
+13
H15/10
Euroleague
Bilbao
#8
W
62-35
62
35
+27
H18/10
ACB
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
L
51-52
51
52
-1
A22/10
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#17
W
54-40
54
40
+14
A25/10
ACB
Baskonia
#20
W
56-46
56
46
+10
A27/10
Euroleague
Fenerbahce
#7
W
47-42
47
42
+5
H29/10
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
W
39-31
39
31
+8
H01/11
ACB
Panathinaikos
#1
L
48-51
48
51
-3
H04/11
Euroleague
Murcia
#11
W
47-39
47
39
+8
H08/11
ACB
Crvena zvezda
#6
W
56-41
56
41
+15
H12/11
Euroleague
94.6Avg total
52.1Scored
42.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)49.243.993.1+5.373%-
Last 30 at home (15)49.941.991.8+7.980%-
Last 30 away (15)48.545.994.3+2.667%-
Last 10 (10)52.142.594.6+9.680%-
Last 5 (5)47.440.888.2+6.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (7)48.343.792.0+4.671%-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)49.444.093.4+5.574%-
This opponent (Zalgiris Kaunas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Zalgiris KaunasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Anadolu Efes
#13
L
36-42
36
42
-6
H16/10
Euroleague
Taurage
#9
W
43-42
43
42
+1
H18/10
LKL
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#16
W
50-34
50
34
+16
H23/10
Euroleague
Jonava
#8
W
41-26
41
26
+15
H25/10
LKL
Virtus Bologna
#15
W
37-35
37
35
+2
A28/10
Euroleague
Partizan
#11
W
44-40
44
40
+4
H30/10
Euroleague
Rytas
#3
L
42-49
42
49
-7
A02/11
LKL
Besiktas
#14
W
45-31
45
31
+14
A06/11
Euroleague
Juventus
#7
W
48-42
48
42
+6
A08/11
LKL
Olimpia Milano
#19
W
45-41
45
41
+4
A12/11
Euroleague
81.3Avg total
43.1Scored
38.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.039.284.3+5.870%-
Last 30 at home (15)46.739.586.3+7.280%-
Last 30 away (15)43.338.982.3+4.460%-
Last 10 (10)43.138.281.3+4.980%-
Last 5 (5)44.840.685.4+4.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)44.044.088.0+0.00%-
vs Similar (4)42.244.086.2-1.825%-
vs Weaker (25)45.538.383.8+7.280%-
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Real Madridtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Real Madrid: 106.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀39%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers45.0 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.8 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.820.6
57.5%
55.2%41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.815.0
41.9%
35.7%45.0
🏀 Free throws23.519.8
84.3%
77.1%19.8
They take 71.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Zalgiris Kaunastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Zalgiris Kaunas: 88.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.6 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.4 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.0 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.319.8
56.1%
55.2%39.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.910.8
43.4%
35.7%32.4
🏀 Free throws21.416.0
74.8%
77.1%16.0
They take 60.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 25 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Real Madrid
WWLWWWWWWW
Zalgiris Kaunas
WWWWWWWWWL
#5
League position
#8
+23.0
Net rating
+11.2
114.6
Offensive rating
106.4
91.6
Defensive rating
95.2
60.2%
Effective FG%
59.8%
50.6%
Opp. effective FG%
52.6%
12.7%
Turnover %
16.4%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.36
41.9%
3-point %
43.4%
62.4%
Assist %
69.0%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence114.6 · 106.4Defence91.6 · 95.2Shooting60.2% · 59.8%3-point %41.9% · 43.4%Ball care12.7% · 16.4%Free throws0.33 · 0.36Form (last 10/10)90% · 90%
■ Real Madrid   ■ Zalgiris Kaunas
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Real Madrid wins
4
Zalgiris Kaunas wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HCrvena zvezda105-84
08/11/26HMurcia90-71
04/11/26HPanathinaikos112-115 OT
01/11/26HSan Pablo Burgos90-79
29/10/26HFenerbahce95-76
27/10/26ABaskonia104-86
25/10/26AForca Lleida122-86
22/10/26AMaccabi Tel Aviv113-99
18/10/26HBilbao119-84
15/10/26HLyon-Villeurbanne111-92
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26AOlimpia Milano86-83
08/11/26AJuventus94-85
06/11/26ABesiktas83-67
02/11/26ARytas94-89
30/10/26HPartizan87-80
28/10/26AVirtus Bologna91-74
25/10/26HJonava86-63
23/10/26HLyon-Villeurbanne105-85
18/10/26HTaurage96-76
16/10/26HAnadolu Efes70-85

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Real Madrid
Euroleague 2026
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW64%
HomeWWWLW80%
AwayLLWWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1156
Win %64%80%50%
Points / game98.5101.895.7
Allowed / game90.188.691.3
Point differential+8.4+13.2+4.3
Avg total188.5190.4187.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+55%80%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (1)0% (2)
Overtime %9%20%0%
Zalgiris Kaunas
Euroleague 2026
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW64%
HomeLLWW50%
AwayWLWWW71%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1147
Win %64%50%71%
Points / game85.688.284.1
Allowed / game82.485.880.4
Point differential+3.3+2.5+3.7
Avg total168.0174.0164.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+27%25%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Panathinaikos108280%87.678.7+8.9
2 Olympiacos118373%88.580.7+7.7
3 Valencia118373%96.488.9+7.5
4 Barcelona107370%91.088.7+2.3
5 Real Madrid117464%98.590.1+8.4
6 Crvena zvezda117464%83.377.7+5.5
7 Fenerbahce117464%82.978.6+4.3
8 Zalgiris Kaunas117464%85.682.4+3.3
9 Dubai117464%86.585.6+0.9
10 Hapoel Tel-Aviv116555%90.487.2+3.2
11 Partizan116555%79.577.7+1.7
12 Paris115645%91.094.1-3.1
13 Anadolu Efes104640%84.287.1-2.9
14 Besiktas104640%87.790.9-3.2
15 Virtus Bologna104640%85.689.5-3.9
16 Lyon-Villeurbanne104640%88.393.0-4.7
17 Maccabi Tel Aviv113827%84.392.1-7.8
18 Bayern113827%86.895.2-8.4
19 Olimpia Milano111109%81.389.3-8.0
20 Baskonia111109%79.991.9-12.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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