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Sao Paulo vs Pato Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 28 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 65-69
19-19 17-23 19-16 10-11
Position#13
Record11-18
FormWLLLL
Points / game75.9
Allowed / game79.4
vs
Pato 🏆
Brazil
Position#14
Record11-18
FormLLLWW
Points / game82.7
Allowed / game84.5
BrazilNBB· Ginasio do Morumbi
Other2024-25
Meetings · Sao Paulo v Pato
28 Mar 2025
SAO 65
PATO69
20 Nov 2023
SAO 89
PATO67
27 Oct 2022
SAO 99
PATO90
12 Jan 2022
SAO 86
PATO77
01 Mar 2021
SAO 84
PATO85
29 Dec 2019
SAO 87
PATO63
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sao Paulo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pato winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Sao PauloBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Franca
#2
L
65-75
65
75
-10
56avg 72
A21/01
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
80-89
80
89
-9
75avg 72
H23/01
NBB
Minas
#2
L
66-82
66
82
-16
60avg 72
A25/01
Super 8
Corinthians Paulista
#8
L
66-90
66
90
-24
50avg 72
H04/02
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
L
71-80
71
80
-9
71avg 72
A08/02
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
68-66
68
66
+2
63avg 72
H13/02
NBB
Cearense
#17
L
75-79
75
79
-4
75avg 72
H04/03
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
78-88
78
88
-10
65avg 72
A08/03
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
65-76
65
76
-11
58avg 72
A13/03
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
74-95
74
95
-21
49avg 72
A15/03
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
13-16
15-20
20-19
17-20
23-22
18-20
19-28
20-19
24-16
14-20
18-25
10-21
18-22
14-31
18-18
16-19
15-16
15-24
26-27
15-13
9-9
28-18
20-17
11-22
20-18
18-15
23-32
14-14
15-23
16-18
17-31
30-16
18-20
16-27
17-15
14-14
24-28
13-24
12-27
25-16
152.8Avg total
70.8Scored
82.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)75.979.4155.3-3.638%
Season at home (14)76.877.9154.6-1.150%
Season away (15)75.180.9156.0-5.927%
Last 10 (10)70.882.0152.8-11.210%
Last 5 (5)72.080.8152.8-8.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)72.676.2148.8-3.640%
vs Similar ◀ (14)78.382.7161.0-4.436%
vs Weaker (5)75.876.8152.6-1.040%
This opponent (Pato) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PatoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPato
Date
Competition
Unifacisa
#11
L
67-80
67
80
-13
52avg 75
A10/01
NBB
Cearense
#17
L
76-80
76
80
-4
68avg 75
A13/01
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
W
78-65
78
65
+13
70avg 75
H20/01
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
W
81-74
81
74
+7
70avg 75
H22/01
NBB
Bauru
#4
L
91-94
91
94
-3
87avg 75
H05/02
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
86-98
86
98
-12
70avg 75
A14/02
NBB
Botafogo
#18
L
76-91
76
91
-15
73avg 75
A16/02
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
81-91
81
91
-10
67avg 75
A28/02
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
98-80
98
80
+18
124avg 75
H14/03
NBB
Paulistano
#12
W
94-77
94
77
+17
97avg 75
A26/03
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-16
19-13
13-22
20-29
31-17
19-29
16-23
10-11
16-20
21-15
16-17
25-13
24-19
17-22
19-15
21-18
15-18
26-23
19-27
31-26
19-18
24-29
21-29
22-22
29-26
27-24
13-19
7-22
12-19
22-27
22-25
25-20
25-15
22-24
28-19
23-22
26-14
20-23
23-20
25-20
165.8Avg total
82.8Scored
83.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)82.784.5167.2-1.838%
Season at home (15)85.882.2168.0+3.660%
Season away (14)79.487.0166.4-7.614%
Last 10 (10)82.883.0165.8-0.240%
Last 5 (5)87.087.4174.4-0.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)83.994.1178.0-10.212%
vs Similar ◀ (17)80.479.3159.7+1.147%
vs Weaker (5)84.484.2168.6+0.240%
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.1-1.1Q1: +3.0+3.0Q2Q2: -5.0-5.0Q2: -1.2-1.2Q3Q3: -4.9-4.9Q3: -2.6-2.6Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: +0.6+0.6
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.1-1.1Q1: +3.0+3.0Q2Q2: -5.0-5.0Q2: -1.2-1.2Q3Q3: -4.9-4.9Q3: -2.6-2.6Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: +0.6+0.6
Sao PauloPato
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Franca
#2
L
28-36
28
36
-8
A21/01
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
41-42
41
42
-1
H23/01
NBB
Minas
#2
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A25/01
Super 8
Corinthians Paulista
#8
L
32-53
32
53
-21
H04/02
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
L
30-40
30
40
-10
A08/02
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
37-27
37
27
+10
H13/02
NBB
Cearense
#17
W
38-33
38
33
+5
H04/03
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A08/03
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
34-47
34
47
-13
A13/03
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
37-52
37
52
-15
A15/03
NBB
75.3Avg total
34.6Scored
40.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.039.676.6-2.740%-
Last 30 at home (14)37.039.076.0-2.043%-
Last 30 away (16)36.940.277.1-3.238%-
Last 10 (10)34.640.775.3-6.130%-
Last 5 (5)35.440.075.4-4.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)34.438.873.2-4.430%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)38.940.779.6-1.943%-
vs Weaker (5)36.639.075.6-2.440%-
This opponent (Pato) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PatoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Unifacisa
#11
W
34-29
34
29
+5
A10/01
NBB
Cearense
#17
W
50-46
50
46
+4
A13/01
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
W
37-35
37
35
+2
H20/01
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
D
41-41
41
41
+0
H22/01
NBB
Bauru
#4
D
41-41
41
41
+0
H05/02
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
43-47
43
47
-4
A14/02
NBB
Botafogo
#18
W
56-50
56
50
+6
A16/02
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
34-46
34
46
-12
A28/02
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
47-39
47
39
+8
H14/03
NBB
Paulistano
#12
W
46-37
46
37
+9
A26/03
NBB
84.0Avg total
42.9Scored
41.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.740.882.5+0.957%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.739.581.1+2.260%-
Last 30 away (15)41.742.183.8-0.553%-
Last 10 (10)42.941.184.0+1.860%-
Last 5 (5)45.243.889.0+1.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)41.845.487.1-3.638%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)40.438.578.9+1.859%-
vs Weaker (5)46.041.287.2+4.880%-
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 69.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.2 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.4 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.516.1
48.1%
50.9%32.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.87.8
31.5%
33.0%23.4
🏀 Free throws20.214.0
69.3%
72.7%14.0
They take 58.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Patotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pato: 81.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.2 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.9 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.8 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.118.6
51.5%
50.9%37.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.711.3
35.6%
33.0%33.9
🏀 Free throws14.510.8
74.5%
72.7%10.8
They take 67.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 28 Mar 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sao Paulo
LLLLWLLLLL
Pato
WWLLLLWWLL
#13
League position
#14
-15.8
Net rating
-0.4
94.7
Offensive rating
112.2
110.4
Defensive rating
112.6
47.7%
Effective FG%
52.4%
51.1%
Opp. effective FG%
54.2%
20.4%
Turnover %
17.6%
23.2%
Off. rebound %
36.1%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.21
31.5%
3-point %
35.6%
66.1%
Assist %
61.5%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence94.7 · 112.2Defence110.4 · 112.6Shooting47.7% · 52.4%3-point %31.5% · 35.6%Ball care20.4% · 17.6%Off. rebounds23.2% · 36.1%Free throws0.35 · 0.21Form (last 10/10)10% · 40%
■ Sao Paulo   ■ Pato
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
9
Sao Paulo wins
1
Pato wins
DateGameScore
17/10/24Pato v Sao Paulo81-88
07/02/24Pato v Sao Paulo74-80
20/11/23Sao Paulo v Pato89-67
14/01/23Pato v Sao Paulo69-84
28/10/22Sao Paulo v Pato99-90 OT
23/03/22Pato v Sao Paulo62-82
12/01/22Sao Paulo v Pato86-77
01/03/21Sao Paulo v Pato84-85
05/12/20Pato v Sao Paulo71-80
03/02/20Pato v Sao Paulo86-106
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/03/25AUniao Corinthians74-95
13/03/25ACaxias do Sul65-76
08/03/25AVasco78-88
04/03/25HCearense75-79
13/02/25HUnifacisa68-66
08/02/25APinheiros71-80
04/02/25HCorinthians Paulista66-90
25/01/25AMinas66-82
23/01/25HSao Jose80-89
21/01/25AFranca65-75
Patolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/03/25APaulistano94-77
14/03/25HBrasilia98-80
28/02/25AFlamengo81-91
16/02/25ABotafogo76-91
14/02/25AVasco86-98
05/02/25HBauru91-94
22/01/25HUniao Corinthians81-74
20/01/25HCaxias do Sul78-65
13/01/25ACearense76-80
10/01/25AUnifacisa67-80

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sao Paulo
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL38%
HomeLLLWL50%
AwayLLLLL27%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291415
Win %38%50%27%
Points / game75.976.875.1
Allowed / game79.477.980.9
Point differential-3.6-1.1-5.9
Avg total155.3154.6156.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%29%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (12)60% (5)43% (7)
Overtime %3%0%7%
Pato
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW38%
HomeLWWLW60%
AwayLLLLW14%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291514
Win %38%60%14%
Points / game82.785.879.4
Allowed / game84.582.287.0
Point differential-1.8+3.6-7.6
Avg total167.2168.0166.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%27%7%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (9)75% (4)20% (5)
Overtime %3%7%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas2723485%82.871.5+11.3
2 Flamengo2821775%83.874.8+9.0
3 Franca2819968%83.777.6+6.0
4 Brasilia29191066%82.580.0+2.5
5 Uniao Corinthians27161159%79.378.8+0.4
6 Vasco29161355%77.276.0+1.2
7 Bauru29161355%78.079.0-1.0
8 Pinheiros29151452%76.375.5+0.9
9 Corinthians Paulista29141548%80.679.1+1.4
10 Unifacisa29141548%75.375.6-0.2
11 Sao Jose29141548%78.178.6-0.5
12 Paulistano29131645%78.877.1+1.7
13 Pato29111838%82.784.5-1.8
14 Sao Paulo29111838%75.979.4-3.6
15 Caxias do Sul28101836%74.579.3-4.8
16 Mogi2992031%74.081.4-7.4
17 Botafogo2882029%73.081.0-7.9
18 Cearense2982128%71.978.3-6.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Sao Paulo1917191065
Pato1923161169
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