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Varese vs Basket Napoli Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 03 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 17:15
Final 84-80
20-18 18-24 24-18 22-20
Position#8
Record5-8
FormLWLWW
Points / game82.2
Allowed / game86.8
Varese 🏆
Italy
vs
Position#11
Record6-7
FormWLWLW
Points / game87.1
Allowed / game87.1
ItalyLega ARound 14· Palasport Lino Oldrini
Domestic2025-26
Meetings · Varese v Basket Napoli
07 Mar 2027
VAR v NAP
upcoming
03 Jan 2026
VAR84
NAP80
28 Dec 2024
VAR89
NAP86
07 Apr 2024
VAR113
NAP79
15 Jan 2023
VAR106
NAP79
12 Dec 2021
VAR89
NAP98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Varese winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Basket Napoli winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Trento
#9
L
74-85
74
85
-11
71avg 75
H25/10
Lega A
Venezia
#5
L
75-86
75
86
-11
64avg 75
A02/11
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
77-83
77
83
-6
77avg 75
H04/11
Lega A
Tortona
#6
L
87-90
87
90
-3
81avg 75
A09/11
Lega A
Cantu
#15
W
91-82
91
82
+9
86avg 75
H16/11
Lega A
Udine
#13
L
59-66
59
66
-7
44avg 75
H23/11
Lega A
Cremona
#12
W
87-79
87
79
+8
79avg 75
A08/12
Lega A
Brescia
#4
L
94-102
94
102
-8
81avg 75
A14/12
Lega A
Trieste
#10
W
84-69
84
69
+15
76avg 75
H21/12
Lega A
Trapani
#3
W
95-88
95
88
+7
95avg 75
A28/12
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-17
18-24
18-21
16-23
23-25
16-21
18-19
18-21
23-16
12-23
19-14
23-30
23-23
25-17
24-31
15-19
18-21
25-19
27-17
21-25
17-21
10-18
9-13
23-14
22-17
17-22
18-24
30-16
18-29
29-21
18-25
29-27
13-11
19-26
28-11
24-21
22-19
25-26
27-19
21-24
165.3Avg total
82.3Scored
83.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)82.286.8169.0-4.738%
Season at home (6)74.379.8154.2-5.533%
Season away (7)88.992.9181.7-4.043%
Last 10 (10)82.383.0165.3-0.740%
Last 5 (5)83.880.8164.6+3.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)81.292.8174.0-11.725%
vs Similar ◀ (10)87.385.0172.3+2.360%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Basket Napoli) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Basket NapoliItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNapoli
Date
Competition
Reggiana
#7
W
95-87
95
87
+8
89avg 79
H26/10
Lega A
Tortona
#6
L
76-87
76
87
-11
65avg 79
A02/11
Lega A
Trapani
#3
L
90-97
90
97
-7
86avg 79
H05/11
Lega A
Trento
#9
W
93-87
93
87
+6
86avg 79
A09/11
Lega A
Brescia
#4
L
72-85
72
85
-13
64avg 79
H16/11
Lega A
Sassari
#16
W
86-75
86
75
+11
83avg 79
H23/11
Lega A
Udine
#13
L
71-78
71
78
-7
61avg 79
A07/12
Lega A
Cremona
#12
W
102-76
102
76
+26
99avg 79
H14/12
Lega A
Venezia
#5
L
96-106
96
106
-10
87avg 79
A21/12
Lega A
Cantu
#15
W
98-86
98
86
+12
97avg 79
H28/12
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-20
26-18
25-22
28-27
19-23
22-20
14-22
21-22
18-27
28-17
27-33
17-20
20-15
21-24
28-24
24-24
15-23
18-21
16-12
23-29
24-21
24-18
15-18
23-18
21-27
18-14
16-22
16-15
20-17
34-18
21-22
27-19
29-30
19-23
18-27
30-26
21-21
30-19
21-17
26-29
174.3Avg total
87.9Scored
86.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)87.187.1174.2+0.046%
Season at home (7)88.984.3173.1+4.657%
Season away (6)85.090.3175.3-5.333%
Last 10 (10)87.986.4174.3+1.550%
Last 5 (5)90.684.2174.8+6.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)85.193.2178.4-8.136%
vs Similar ◀ (15)87.783.7171.5+4.060%
vs Weaker (1)70.074.0144.0-4.00%
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.2+0.2Q1: -2.1-2.1Q2Q2: -2.1-2.1Q2: +4.8+4.8Q3Q3: +1.2+1.2Q3: -1.8-1.8Q4Q4: +0.0+0.0Q4: +0.6+0.6
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.2+0.2Q1: -2.1-2.1Q2Q2: -2.1-2.1Q2: +4.8+4.8Q3Q3: +1.2+1.2Q3: -1.8-1.8Q4Q4: +0.0+0.0Q4: +0.6+0.6
VareseBasket Napoli
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Trento
#9
L
40-41
40
41
-1
H25/10
Lega A
Venezia
#5
L
39-46
39
46
-7
A02/11
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
35-39
35
39
-4
H04/11
Lega A
Tortona
#6
W
48-40
48
40
+8
A09/11
Lega A
Cantu
#15
W
43-40
43
40
+3
H16/11
Lega A
Udine
#13
L
27-39
27
39
-12
H23/11
Lega A
Cremona
#12
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A08/12
Lega A
Brescia
#4
L
47-50
47
50
-3
A14/12
Lega A
Trieste
#10
L
32-37
32
37
-5
H21/12
Lega A
Trapani
#3
W
47-45
47
45
+2
A28/12
Lega A
81.3Avg total
39.7Scored
41.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.943.485.2-1.543%-
Last 30 at home (14)38.140.178.1-2.043%-
Last 30 away (16)45.246.291.4-1.144%-
Last 10 (10)39.741.681.3-1.930%-
Last 5 (5)38.442.080.4-3.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)41.845.587.3-3.735%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)42.039.181.1+2.960%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Basket Napoli) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Basket NapoliLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Reggiana
#7
W
42-38
42
38
+4
H26/10
Lega A
Tortona
#6
L
41-43
41
43
-2
A02/11
Lega A
Trapani
#3
W
46-44
46
44
+2
H05/11
Lega A
Trento
#9
W
41-39
41
39
+2
A09/11
Lega A
Brescia
#4
L
33-44
33
44
-11
H16/11
Lega A
Sassari
#16
W
48-39
48
39
+9
H23/11
Lega A
Udine
#13
L
39-41
39
41
-2
A07/12
Lega A
Cremona
#12
W
54-35
54
35
+19
H14/12
Lega A
Venezia
#5
L
48-53
48
53
-5
A21/12
Lega A
Cantu
#15
W
51-40
51
40
+11
H28/12
Lega A
85.9Avg total
44.3Scored
41.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.843.084.8-1.340%-
Last 30 at home (16)43.642.786.3+0.950%-
Last 30 away (14)39.643.483.1-3.829%-
Last 10 (10)44.341.685.9+2.760%-
Last 5 (5)48.041.689.6+6.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)39.145.384.4-6.221%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)44.241.485.6+2.853%-
vs Weaker (1)43.036.079.0+7.0100%-
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 81.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.4 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.6 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.4 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 84.6 points a game
48%
33%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.419.7
54.1%
54.1%39.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.110.2
31.8%
34.6%30.6
🏀 Free throws14.611.4
78.1%
76.1%11.4
They take 68.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Basket Napolitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Basket Napoli: 87.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.8 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 84.6 points a game
48%
33%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.422.4
55.4%
54.1%44.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.58.8
37.4%
34.6%26.4
🏀 Free throws21.315.9
74.6%
76.1%15.9
They take 63.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 03 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Varese
WWLWLWLLLL
Basket Napoli
WLWLWLWLLW
#8
League position
#11
-1.0
Net rating
+2.4
102.3
Offensive rating
114.2
103.3
Defensive rating
111.8
51.1%
Effective FG%
55.7%
48.5%
Opp. effective FG%
52.3%
19.5%
Turnover %
16.4%
28.2%
Off. rebound %
27.2%
0.21
Free-throw rate
0.33
31.8%
3-point %
37.4%
62.9%
Assist %
56.7%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence102.3 · 114.2Defence103.3 · 111.8Shooting51.1% · 55.7%3-point %31.8% · 37.4%Ball care19.5% · 16.4%Off. rebounds28.2% · 27.2%Free throws0.21 · 0.33Form (last 10/10)40% · 50%
■ Varese   ■ Basket Napoli
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Varese wins
2
Basket Napoli wins
DateGameScore
12/04/25Basket Napoli v Varese87-97
28/12/24Varese v Basket Napoli89-86
07/04/24Varese v Basket Napoli113-79
11/11/23Basket Napoli v Varese97-96
05/03/23Basket Napoli v Varese93-101
15/01/23Varese v Basket Napoli106-79
14/03/22Basket Napoli v Varese74-82
12/12/21Varese v Basket Napoli89-98 OT
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/12/25ATrapani95-88
21/12/25HTrieste84-69
14/12/25ABrescia94-102
08/12/25ACremona87-79
23/11/25HUdine59-66
16/11/25HCantu91-82
09/11/25ATortona87-90
04/11/25HVirtus Bologna77-83
02/11/25AVenezia75-86
25/10/25HTrento74-85
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/12/25HCantu98-86
21/12/25AVenezia96-106
14/12/25HCremona102-76
07/12/25AUdine71-78
23/11/25HSassari86-75
16/11/25HBrescia72-85
09/11/25ATrento93-87
05/11/25HTrapani90-97
02/11/25ATortona76-87
26/10/25HReggiana95-87

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Varese
Lega A 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW38%
HomeLLWLW33%
AwayLLWLW43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1367
Win %38%33%43%
Points / game82.274.388.9
Allowed / game86.879.892.9
Point differential-4.7-5.5-4.0
Avg total169.0154.2181.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+8%17%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Basket Napoli
Lega A 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW46%
HomeLLWWW57%
AwayWLWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1376
Win %46%57%33%
Points / game87.188.985.0
Allowed / game87.184.390.3
Point differential+0.0+4.6-5.3
Avg total174.2173.1175.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+23%43%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Virtus Bologna1311285%85.877.8+8.0
2 Brescia1311285%90.282.8+7.4
3 Trapani1310377%90.186.3+3.8
4 Olimpia Milano139469%86.877.3+9.5
5 Venezia139469%93.888.4+5.5
6 Tortona139469%89.187.7+1.4
7 Basket Napoli136746%87.187.1+0.0
8 Trieste136746%83.888.9-5.2
9 Trento135838%84.482.8+1.5
10 Udine135838%80.281.1-0.8
11 Cremona135838%83.585.2-1.7
12 Sassari135838%86.388.5-2.2
13 Varese135838%82.286.8-4.7
14 Reggiana1331023%79.884.7-4.8
15 Cantu1331023%83.492.2-8.8
16 Treviso1321115%83.792.5-8.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Varese2018242284
Basket Napoli1824182080
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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