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Varese vs Trieste Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 21 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 84-69
13-11 19-26 28-11 24-21
Position#8
Record3-8
FormLWLWL
Points / game80.8
Allowed / game88.4
Varese 🏆
Italy
vs
Position#10
Record6-5
FormWWLWL
Points / game86.7
Allowed / game90.7
ItalyLega ARound 12· Palasport Lino Oldrini
Domestic2025-26
Meetings · Varese v Trieste
10 Oct 2026
VAR85
TRI84
21 Dec 2025
VAR84
TRI69
04 May 2025
VAR85
TRI80
18 Dec 2022
VAR104
TRI99
13 Apr 2022
VAR76
TRI92
25 Apr 2021
VAR73
TRI79
19 Jan 2020
VAR91
TRI85
28 Oct 2018
VAR78
TRI66
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Varese winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Trieste winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Olimpia Milano
#2
L
61-94
61
94
-33
46avg 74
H11/10
Lega A
Reggiana
#7
L
79-103
79
103
-24
68avg 74
A19/10
Lega A
Trento
#9
L
74-85
74
85
-11
71avg 74
H25/10
Lega A
Venezia
#5
L
75-86
75
86
-11
64avg 74
A02/11
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
77-83
77
83
-6
77avg 74
H04/11
Lega A
Tortona
#6
L
87-90
87
90
-3
81avg 74
A09/11
Lega A
Cantu
#15
W
91-82
91
82
+9
86avg 74
H16/11
Lega A
Udine
#13
L
59-66
59
66
-7
44avg 74
H23/11
Lega A
Cremona
#12
W
87-79
87
79
+8
79avg 74
A08/12
Lega A
Brescia
#4
L
94-102
94
102
-8
81avg 74
A14/12
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-28
15-22
20-24
9-20
22-28
22-28
18-20
17-27
22-17
18-24
18-21
16-23
23-25
16-21
18-19
18-21
23-16
12-23
19-14
23-30
23-23
25-17
24-31
15-19
18-21
25-19
27-17
21-25
17-21
10-18
9-13
23-14
22-17
17-22
18-24
30-16
18-29
29-21
18-25
29-27
165.4Avg total
78.4Scored
87.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)80.888.4169.2-7.527%
Season at home (5)72.482.0154.4-9.620%
Season away (6)87.893.7181.5-5.833%
Last 10 (10)78.487.0165.4-8.620%
Last 5 (5)83.683.8167.4-0.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)80.493.3173.7-12.920%
vs Similar ◀ (10)87.886.7174.5+1.160%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Trieste) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TriesteItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTrieste
Date
Competition
Treviso
#14
W
107-100
107
100
+7
107avg 79
A01/11
Lega A
Igokea
#39
W
115-90
115
90
+25
107avg 79
H04/11
Champions League
Brescia
#4
L
75-98
75
98
-23
60avg 79
A09/11
Lega A
Tortona
#6
W
91-81
91
81
+10
84avg 79
H12/11
Lega A
Cremona
#12
L
94-113
94
113
-19
85avg 79
A15/11
Lega A
Galatasaray
#8
W
80-79
80
79
+1
72avg 79
A18/11
Champions League
Olimpia Milano
#2
W
86-82
86
82
+4
81avg 79
H23/11
Lega A
Sassari
#16
L
80-85
80
85
-5
72avg 79
A06/12
Lega A
Reggiana
#7
W
92-82 OT
92
82
+10
86avg 79
H13/12
Lega A
Wurzburg
#15
L
77-90
77
90
-13
61avg 79
H17/12
Champions League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-30
33-24
34-23
15-23
23-16
33-28
21-18
38-28
26-32
18-21
16-18
15-27
15-29
26-14
23-18
27-20
22-27
24-23
23-35
25-28
18-18
21-21
18-22
23-18
30-21
14-20
26-24
16-17
17-30
20-14
21-25
22-16
16-24
21-19
20-19
18-13
16-24
21-17
12-27
28-22
179.7Avg total
89.7Scored
90.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)86.790.7177.5-4.055%
Season at home (5)89.684.2173.8+5.480%
Season away (6)84.396.2180.5-11.833%
Last 10 (10)89.790.0179.7-0.360%
Last 5 (5)83.083.6166.6-0.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)81.790.2171.9-8.642%
vs Similar ◀ (11)86.792.0178.7-5.336%
vs Weaker (7)94.682.0176.6+12.671%
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -2.0-2.0Q1: -4.3-4.3Q2Q2: -2.6-2.6Q2: +3.0+3.0Q3Q3: -1.9-1.9Q3: -1.5-1.5Q4Q4: -2.1-2.1Q4: +1.5+1.5
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -2.0-2.0Q1: -4.3-4.3Q2Q2: -2.6-2.6Q2: +3.0+3.0Q3Q3: -1.9-1.9Q3: -1.5-1.5Q4Q4: -2.1-2.1Q4: +1.5+1.5
VareseTrieste
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Olimpia Milano
#2
L
32-50
32
50
-18
H11/10
Lega A
Reggiana
#7
L
44-56
44
56
-12
A19/10
Lega A
Trento
#9
L
40-41
40
41
-1
H25/10
Lega A
Venezia
#5
L
39-46
39
46
-7
A02/11
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
35-39
35
39
-4
H04/11
Lega A
Tortona
#6
W
48-40
48
40
+8
A09/11
Lega A
Cantu
#15
W
43-40
43
40
+3
H16/11
Lega A
Udine
#13
L
27-39
27
39
-12
H23/11
Lega A
Cremona
#12
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A08/12
Lega A
Brescia
#4
L
47-50
47
50
-3
A14/12
Lega A
83.4Avg total
39.4Scored
44.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.243.585.8-1.343%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.340.279.5-0.950%-
Last 30 away (16)44.846.491.2-1.638%-
Last 10 (10)39.444.083.4-4.620%-
Last 5 (5)40.841.682.4-0.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)41.545.687.2-4.130%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)43.739.383.0+4.470%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Trieste) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TriesteLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Treviso
#14
W
58-54
58
54
+4
A01/11
Lega A
Igokea
#39
W
56-44
56
44
+12
H04/11
Champions League
Brescia
#4
L
44-53
44
53
-9
A09/11
Lega A
Tortona
#6
L
41-43
41
43
-2
H12/11
Lega A
Cremona
#12
L
46-50
46
50
-4
A15/11
Lega A
Galatasaray
#8
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A18/11
Champions League
Olimpia Milano
#2
W
44-41
44
41
+3
H23/11
Lega A
Sassari
#16
L
37-44
37
44
-7
A06/12
Lega A
Reggiana
#7
L
37-43
37
43
-6
H13/12
Lega A
Wurzburg
#15
L
37-41
37
41
-4
H17/12
Champions League
89.1Avg total
43.9Scored
45.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.044.587.4-1.537%-
Last 30 at home (14)43.242.385.5+0.943%-
Last 30 away (16)42.846.489.1-3.631%-
Last 10 (10)43.945.289.1-1.330%-
Last 5 (5)38.841.680.4-2.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)39.645.885.4-6.28%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)44.146.390.4-2.245%-
vs Weaker (7)47.039.386.3+7.771%-
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 77.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.4 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.9 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.2 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 84.6 points a game
48%
33%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.918.7
52.1%
54.1%37.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.79.3
29.3%
34.6%27.9
🏀 Free throws15.712.2
77.7%
76.1%12.2
They take 67.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Triestetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Trieste: 88.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀41%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.6 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.3 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.8 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 84.6 points a game
48%
33%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.418.3
53.2%
54.1%36.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.211.1
36.8%
34.6%33.3
🏀 Free throws23.818.8
79.0%
76.1%18.8
They take 64.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Dec 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Varese
LWLWLLLLLL
Trieste
LWLWWLWLWW
#8
League position
#10
-10.7
Net rating
-0.6
97.4
Offensive rating
112.9
108.1
Defensive rating
113.6
48.3%
Effective FG%
54.1%
50.3%
Opp. effective FG%
54.5%
19.1%
Turnover %
17.8%
26.0%
Off. rebound %
29.4%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.37
29.3%
3-point %
36.8%
62.1%
Assist %
56.8%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence97.4 · 112.9Defence108.1 · 113.6Shooting48.3% · 54.1%3-point %29.3% · 36.8%Ball care19.1% · 17.8%Off. rebounds26.0% · 29.4%Free throws0.23 · 0.37Form (last 10/10)20% · 60%
■ Varese   ■ Trieste
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Varese wins
4
Trieste wins
DateGameScore
04/05/25Varese v Trieste85-80
03/11/24Trieste v Varese107-81
16/04/23Trieste v Varese80-83
18/12/22Varese v Trieste104-99 OT
13/04/22Varese v Trieste76-92
14/11/21Trieste v Varese70-86
25/04/21Varese v Trieste73-79
27/01/21Trieste v Varese108-83
19/01/20Varese v Trieste91-85
29/09/19Trieste v Varese62-92
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/12/25ABrescia94-102
08/12/25ACremona87-79
23/11/25HUdine59-66
16/11/25HCantu91-82
09/11/25ATortona87-90
04/11/25HVirtus Bologna77-83
02/11/25AVenezia75-86
25/10/25HTrento74-85
19/10/25AReggiana79-103
11/10/25HOlimpia Milano61-94
Triestelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/12/25HWurzburg77-90
13/12/25HReggiana92-82 OT
06/12/25ASassari80-85
23/11/25HOlimpia Milano86-82
18/11/25AGalatasaray80-79
15/11/25ACremona94-113
12/11/25HTortona91-81
09/11/25ABrescia75-98
04/11/25HIgokea115-90
01/11/25ATreviso107-100

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Varese
Lega A 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL27%
HomeLLLWL20%
AwayLLLWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1156
Win %27%20%33%
Points / game80.872.487.8
Allowed / game88.482.093.7
Point differential-7.5-9.6-5.8
Avg total169.2154.4181.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Trieste
Lega A 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW55%
HomeLWWWW80%
AwayLWLLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1156
Win %55%80%33%
Points / game86.789.684.3
Allowed / game90.784.296.2
Point differential-4.0+5.4-11.8
Avg total177.5173.8180.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%40%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)50% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %9%20%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Brescia1110191%90.381.6+8.6
2 Trapani1210283%90.285.6+4.7
3 Virtus Bologna119282%86.979.1+7.8
4 Venezia129375%93.987.1+6.8
5 Olimpia Milano128467%86.577.6+8.9
6 Tortona128467%89.889.4+0.3
7 Trieste116555%86.790.7-4.0
8 Trento125742%85.282.9+2.2
9 Cremona125742%84.384.8-0.4
10 Basket Napoli125742%86.287.2-1.0
11 Udine124833%80.181.6-1.5
12 Sassari124833%85.888.4-2.6
13 Varese113827%80.888.4-7.5
14 Reggiana123925%80.985.0-4.1
15 Cantu123925%83.291.8-8.6
16 Treviso1221017%83.292.6-9.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Varese1319282484
Trieste1126112169
← all games of the day
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