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Varese vs Basket Napoli Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 07 Apr 2024
Tip-off: 14:30
Final 113-79
27-26 27-17 21-20 38-16
Position#12
Record9-16
FormLLWLL
Points / game84.5
Allowed / game90.2
Varese 🏆
Italy
vs
Basket Napoli
Italy
Position#7
Record12-13
FormWLLLL
Points / game86.0
Allowed / game85.5
ItalyLega ARound 26· Palasport Lino Oldrini
Domestic2023-24
Meetings · Varese v Basket Napoli
07 Mar 2027
VAR v NAP
upcoming
03 Jan 2026
VAR84
NAP80
28 Dec 2024
VAR89
NAP86
07 Apr 2024
VAR113
NAP79
15 Jan 2023
VAR106
NAP79
12 Dec 2021
VAR89
NAP98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Varese winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Basket Napoli winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Pesaro
#16
W
91-80
91
80
+11
85avg 80
H11/02
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
63-94
63
94
-31
49avg 80
A03/03
Lega A
Nymburk
#10
W
80-65
80
65
+15
70avg 80
A06/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Brindisi
#15
W
81-73
81
73
+8
72avg 80
H10/03
Lega A
Nymburk
#10
W
91-76
91
76
+15
89avg 80
H13/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Reggiana
#5
L
80-113
80
113
-33
71avg 80
A17/03
Lega A
Tortona
#9
L
83-90
83
90
-7
77avg 80
A24/03
Lega A
Bahcesehir Kol.
#4
W
81-80
81
80
+1
78avg 80
H27/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Brescia
#3
L
92-95
92
95
-3
86avg 80
H30/03
Lega A
Bahcesehir Kol.
#4
L
73-81
73
81
-8
65avg 80
A03/04
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-21
18-22
22-21
22-16
13-29
17-25
20-27
13-13
16-16
18-16
23-16
23-17
15-16
20-22
28-18
18-17
24-15
21-20
22-19
24-22
15-26
29-25
22-30
14-32
15-21
16-20
28-27
24-22
19-26
29-19
18-25
15-10
22-21
26-23
19-28
25-23
21-26
18-21
12-12
22-22
166.2Avg total
81.5Scored
84.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (25)84.590.2174.7-5.736%
Season at home (13)85.284.1169.3+1.246%
Season away (12)83.796.8180.5-13.225%
Last 10 (10)81.584.7166.2-3.250%
Last 5 (5)81.891.8173.6-10.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)78.891.1169.9-12.320%
vs Similar ◀ (15)90.387.5177.8+2.767%
vs Weaker (5)85.881.0166.8+4.860%
This opponent (Basket Napoli) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Basket NapoliItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNapoli
Date
Competition
Brescia
#3
L
83-104
83
104
-21
68avg 78
H03/02
Lega A
Cremona
#11
L
83-90
83
90
-7
74avg 78
A11/02
Lega A
Brescia
#5
W
80-74
80
74
+6
74avg 78
A15/02
Italian Cup
Reggiana
#3
W
87-78 OT
87
78
+9
no box
A17/02
Italian Cup
Olimpia Milano
#2
W
77-72
77
72
+5
68avg 78
A18/02
Italian Cup
Treviso
#13
W
95-81
95
81
+14
93avg 78
H03/03
Lega A
Tortona
#9
L
72-97
72
97
-25
56avg 78
A10/03
Lega A
Pistoia
#10
L
93-95 OT
93
95
-2
no box
H16/03
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
84-86
84
86
-2
78avg 78
A24/03
Lega A
Venezia
#4
L
90-97
90
97
-7
75avg 78
H30/03
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
12-30
16-24
25-17
30-33
18-20
18-26
29-19
18-25
19-11
15-19
27-16
19-28
14-24
25-17
14-17
20-15
24-19
19-17
17-17
17-19
18-26
19-18
30-24
28-13
11-21
22-23
17-34
22-19
18-21
23-17
20-21
18-20
22-28
20-15
26-21
16-22
14-24
28-30
20-25
28-18
171.8Avg total
84.4Scored
87.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (25)86.085.5171.6+0.548%
Season at home (12)86.884.2170.9+2.658%
Season away (13)85.486.8172.2-1.438%
Last 10 (10)84.487.4171.8-3.040%
Last 5 (5)86.891.2178.0-4.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)79.485.6165.0-6.129%
vs Similar ◀ (17)88.187.1175.2+1.153%
vs Weaker (5)89.475.6165.0+13.8100%
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -2.8-2.8Q1: -5.4-5.4Q2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q2: -0.1-0.1Q3Q3: -0.9-0.9Q3: +1.4+1.4Q4Q4: +0.6+0.6Q4: +0.4+0.4
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -2.8-2.8Q1: -5.4-5.4Q2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q2: -0.1-0.1Q3Q3: -0.9-0.9Q3: +1.4+1.4Q4Q4: +0.6+0.6Q4: +0.4+0.4
VareseBasket Napoli
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pesaro
#16
W
47-43
47
43
+4
H11/02
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
30-54
30
54
-24
A03/03
Lega A
Nymburk
#10
W
34-32
34
32
+2
A06/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Brindisi
#15
L
35-38
35
38
-3
H10/03
Lega A
Nymburk
#10
W
45-35
45
35
+10
H13/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Reggiana
#5
L
44-51
44
51
-7
A17/03
Lega A
Tortona
#9
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A24/03
Lega A
Bahcesehir Kol.
#4
W
48-45
48
45
+3
H27/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Brescia
#3
W
48-44
48
44
+4
H30/03
Lega A
Bahcesehir Kol.
#4
L
39-47
39
47
-8
A03/04
FIBA Europe Cup
83.1Avg total
40.1Scored
43.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.544.587.1-2.043%-
Last 30 at home (14)45.942.288.1+3.664%-
Last 30 away (16)39.646.686.2-6.925%-
Last 10 (10)40.143.083.1-2.950%-
Last 5 (5)42.045.687.6-3.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)41.049.990.9-8.930%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)43.341.885.1+1.547%-
vs Weaker (5)43.442.085.4+1.460%-
This opponent (Basket Napoli) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Basket NapoliLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brescia
#3
L
28-54
28
54
-26
H03/02
Lega A
Cremona
#11
L
36-46
36
46
-10
A11/02
Lega A
Brescia
#5
W
34-30
34
30
+4
A15/02
Italian Cup
Reggiana
#3
L
39-41
39
41
-2
A17/02
Italian Cup
Olimpia Milano
#2
W
43-36
43
36
+7
A18/02
Italian Cup
Treviso
#13
L
37-44
37
44
-7
H03/03
Lega A
Tortona
#9
L
33-44
33
44
-11
A10/03
Lega A
Pistoia
#10
W
41-38
41
38
+3
H16/03
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
42-43
42
43
-1
A24/03
Lega A
Venezia
#4
L
42-54
42
54
-12
H30/03
Lega A
80.5Avg total
37.5Scored
43.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.642.382.9-1.737%-
Last 30 at home (13)39.242.181.2-2.938%-
Last 30 away (17)41.742.584.2-0.835%-
Last 10 (10)37.543.080.5-5.530%-
Last 5 (5)39.044.683.6-5.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)37.444.381.7-6.914%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)41.443.985.3-2.635%-
vs Weaker (5)43.836.480.2+7.460%-
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 80.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀37%
🏀🏀🏀46%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers29.8 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.9 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.8 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.5 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers30.114.9
49.5%
53.1%29.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.712.3
36.5%
35.7%36.9
🏀 Free throws18.113.8
76.2%
76.3%13.8
They take 63.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 53% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Basket Napolitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Basket Napoli: 82.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.8 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.3 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.5 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.218.4
52.3%
53.1%36.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.79.0
28.4%
35.7%27.0
🏀 Free throws23.618.3
77.5%
76.3%18.3
They take 66.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 07 Apr 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Varese
LLWLLWWWLW
Basket Napoli
LLLLWWWWLL
#12
League position
#7
-4.2
Net rating
-6.9
106.5
Offensive rating
105.5
110.7
Defensive rating
112.5
52.3%
Effective FG%
47.7%
49.7%
Opp. effective FG%
56.0%
16.1%
Turnover %
13.3%
22.4%
Off. rebound %
24.6%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.35
36.5%
3-point %
28.4%
65.8%
Assist %
62.0%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence106.5 · 105.5Defence110.7 · 112.5Shooting52.3% · 47.7%3-point %36.5% · 28.4%Ball care16.1% · 13.3%Off. rebounds22.4% · 24.6%Free throws0.28 · 0.35Form (last 10/10)50% · 40%
■ Varese   ■ Basket Napoli
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Varese wins
2
Basket Napoli wins
DateGameScore
11/11/23Basket Napoli v Varese97-96
05/03/23Basket Napoli v Varese93-101
15/01/23Varese v Basket Napoli106-79
14/03/22Basket Napoli v Varese74-82
12/12/21Varese v Basket Napoli89-98 OT
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/04/24ABahcesehir Kol.73-81
30/03/24HBrescia92-95
27/03/24HBahcesehir Kol.81-80
24/03/24ATortona83-90
17/03/24AReggiana80-113
13/03/24HNymburk91-76
10/03/24HBrindisi81-73
06/03/24ANymburk80-65
03/03/24AOlimpia Milano63-94
11/02/24HPesaro91-80
Basket Napolilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/03/24HVenezia90-97
24/03/24AOlimpia Milano84-86
16/03/24HPistoia93-95 OT
10/03/24ATortona72-97
03/03/24HTreviso95-81
18/02/24AOlimpia Milano77-72
17/02/24AReggiana87-78 OT
15/02/24ABrescia80-74
11/02/24ACremona83-90
03/02/24HBrescia83-104

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Varese
Lega A 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL36%
HomeLLWWL46%
AwayWLLLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games251312
Win %36%46%25%
Points / game84.585.283.7
Allowed / game90.284.196.8
Point differential-5.7+1.2-13.2
Avg total174.7169.3180.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%23%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (10)33% (6)50% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Basket Napoli
Lega A 2023-24
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL48%
HomeWLWLL58%
AwayWLLLL38%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games251213
Win %48%58%38%
Points / game86.086.885.4
Allowed / game85.584.286.8
Point differential+0.5+2.6-1.4
Avg total171.6170.9172.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%33%15%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (8)50% (4)50% (4)
Overtime %4%8%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Brescia2619773%87.778.0+9.7
2 Virtus Bologna2517868%88.477.6+10.9
3 Olimpia Milano2517868%79.073.4+5.6
4 Venezia2517868%82.977.4+5.4
5 Reggiana25141156%80.980.2+0.7
6 Trento25131252%83.483.2+0.2
7 Pistoia25131252%79.882.8-3.1
8 Tortona26131350%80.278.8+1.4
9 Basket Napoli25121348%86.085.5+0.5
10 Sassari26121446%78.282.5-4.3
11 Scafati25111444%82.986.7-3.8
12 Cremona25101540%80.479.7+0.8
13 Treviso25101540%80.284.0-3.8
14 Varese2591636%84.590.2-5.7
15 Pesaro2681831%80.187.4-7.3
16 Brindisi2571828%74.481.7-7.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Varese27272138113
Basket Napoli2617201679
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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