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Varese vs Basket Napoli Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 28 Dec 2024
Tip-off: 19:30
Final 89-86
22-12 27-27 19-29 21-18
Position#12
Record3-9
FormLLLWL
Points / game89.3
Allowed / game98.5
Varese 🏆
Italy
vs
Position#14
Record1-11
FormLLLLW
Points / game81.4
Allowed / game89.6
ItalyLega ARound 13· Palasport Lino Oldrini
Domestic2024-25
Meetings · Varese v Basket Napoli
07 Mar 2027
VAR v NAP
upcoming
03 Jan 2026
VAR84
NAP80
28 Dec 2024
VAR89
NAP86
07 Apr 2024
VAR113
NAP79
15 Jan 2023
VAR106
NAP79
12 Dec 2021
VAR89
NAP98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Varese winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Basket Napoli winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Trento
#4
L
100-106
100
106
-6
85avg 82
A13/10
Lega A
Trapani
#3
L
100-109
100
109
-9
94avg 82
H19/10
Lega A
Pistoia
#16
W
102-95
102
95
+7
93avg 82
H27/10
Lega A
Trieste
#6
L
81-107
81
107
-26
66avg 82
A03/11
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
W
104-95
104
95
+9
100avg 82
H10/11
Lega A
Scafati
#15
L
85-94
85
94
-9
73avg 82
A16/11
Lega A
Venezia
#8
L
77-86
77
86
-9
65avg 82
H01/12
Lega A
Cremona
#13
L
60-78
60
78
-18
51avg 82
A08/12
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#5
W
94-92
94
92
+2
87avg 82
H15/12
Lega A
Reggiana
#7
L
80-97
80
97
-17
68avg 82
A22/12
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-25
31-25
14-29
28-27
33-24
24-28
21-27
22-30
26-18
21-32
31-14
24-31
15-27
17-23
21-24
28-33
24-22
27-22
25-30
28-21
25-27
25-22
21-18
14-27
27-21
12-27
21-20
17-18
14-17
18-18
8-23
20-20
25-19
29-24
18-22
22-27
17-22
24-26
21-28
18-21
184.2Avg total
88.3Scored
95.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)89.398.5187.8-9.225%
Season at home (6)95.397.0192.3-1.750%
Season away (6)83.3100.0183.3-16.70%
Last 10 (10)88.395.9184.2-7.630%
Last 5 (5)79.289.4168.6-10.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)87.297.3184.5-10.123%
vs Similar ◀ (15)90.387.8178.1+2.553%
vs Weaker (2)84.080.5164.5+3.550%
This opponent (Basket Napoli) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Basket NapoliItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNapoli
Date
Competition
Sassari
#10
L
76-94
76
94
-18
62avg 75
A13/10
Lega A
Cremona
#13
L
81-87
81
87
-6
77avg 75
H19/10
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#5
L
82-89
82
89
-7
73avg 75
A26/10
Lega A
Venezia
#8
L
80-81
80
81
-1
72avg 75
H03/11
Lega A
Trapani
#3
L
85-95
85
95
-10
85avg 75
A10/11
Lega A
Treviso
#11
L
69-84
69
84
-15
69avg 75
H17/11
Lega A
Trento
#4
L
83-90
83
90
-7
72avg 75
A01/12
Lega A
Reggiana
#7
L
76-84
76
84
-8
61avg 75
H08/12
Lega A
Brescia
#2
L
84-97
84
97
-13
69avg 75
A15/12
Lega A
Scafati
#15
W
96-94 OT
96
94
+2
84avg 75
H22/12
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-28
22-22
7-27
31-17
21-24
23-19
21-14
16-30
13-20
22-19
26-27
21-23
26-21
20-15
19-15
15-30
22-24
23-31
20-8
20-32
15-15
22-22
16-18
16-29
14-22
19-16
26-23
24-29
17-18
11-23
23-17
25-26
21-31
23-19
24-29
16-18
22-19
24-19
18-19
18-25
170.7Avg total
81.2Scored
89.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)81.489.6171.0-8.28%
Season at home (6)80.887.0167.8-6.217%
Season away (6)82.092.2174.2-10.20%
Last 10 (10)81.289.5170.7-8.310%
Last 5 (5)81.689.8171.4-8.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)82.490.1172.5-7.79%
vs Similar ◀ (14)85.192.4177.5-7.429%
vs Weaker (3)83.081.0164.0+2.067%
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +1.1+1.1Q1: -3.5-3.5Q2Q2: -1.9-1.9Q2: +0.4+0.4Q3Q3: -3.4-3.4Q3: +0.3+0.3Q4Q4: -3.4-3.4Q4: -5.7-5.7
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +1.1+1.1Q1: -3.5-3.5Q2Q2: -1.9-1.9Q2: +0.4+0.4Q3Q3: -3.4-3.4Q3: +0.3+0.3Q4Q4: -3.4-3.4Q4: -5.7-5.7
VareseBasket Napoli
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Trento
#4
W
58-50
58
50
+8
A13/10
Lega A
Trapani
#3
W
57-52
57
52
+5
H19/10
Lega A
Pistoia
#16
L
47-50
47
50
-3
H27/10
Lega A
Trieste
#6
L
32-50
32
50
-18
A03/11
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
W
51-44
51
44
+7
H10/11
Lega A
Scafati
#15
W
50-49
50
49
+1
A16/11
Lega A
Venezia
#8
L
39-48
39
48
-9
H01/12
Lega A
Cremona
#13
L
32-35
32
35
-3
A08/12
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#5
W
54-43
54
43
+11
H15/12
Lega A
Reggiana
#7
L
41-48
41
48
-7
A22/12
Lega A
93.0Avg total
46.1Scored
46.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.646.191.7-0.447%-
Last 30 at home (13)48.845.794.5+3.169%-
Last 30 away (17)43.246.489.6-3.129%-
Last 10 (10)46.146.993.0-0.850%-
Last 5 (5)43.244.687.8-1.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)46.848.795.5-1.854%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)44.944.088.9+0.940%-
vs Weaker (2)43.544.588.0-1.050%-
This opponent (Basket Napoli) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Basket NapoliLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sassari
#10
L
38-50
38
50
-12
A13/10
Lega A
Cremona
#13
W
44-43
44
43
+1
H19/10
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#5
L
35-39
35
39
-4
A26/10
Lega A
Venezia
#8
W
46-36
46
36
+10
H03/11
Lega A
Trapani
#3
L
45-55
45
55
-10
A10/11
Lega A
Treviso
#11
D
37-37
37
37
+0
H17/11
Lega A
Trento
#4
L
33-38
33
38
-5
A01/12
Lega A
Reggiana
#7
L
28-41
28
41
-13
H08/12
Lega A
Brescia
#2
L
44-50
44
50
-6
A15/12
Lega A
Scafati
#15
W
46-38
46
38
+8
H22/12
Lega A
82.3Avg total
39.6Scored
42.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.444.685.0-4.130%-
Last 30 at home (14)41.444.185.6-2.750%-
Last 30 away (16)39.644.984.5-5.412%-
Last 10 (10)39.642.782.3-3.130%-
Last 5 (5)37.640.878.4-3.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)39.844.584.3-4.627%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)41.944.886.6-2.936%-
vs Weaker (3)40.346.386.7-6.00%-
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 87.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀38%
🏀🏀🏀43%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.6 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.5 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.4 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 84.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.216.8
50.6%
52.9%33.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.212.5
34.5%
35.8%37.5
🏀 Free throws20.816.4
78.8%
76.8%16.4
They take 69.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 52% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Basket Napolitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Basket Napoli: 80.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.2 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.4 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 84.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.518.6
52.4%
52.9%37.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.79.6
33.4%
35.8%28.8
🏀 Free throws19.314.4
74.6%
76.8%14.4
They take 64.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 28 Dec 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Varese
LWLLLWLWLL
Basket Napoli
WLLLLLLLLL
#12
League position
#14
-9.7
Net rating
-10.8
110.0
Offensive rating
107.0
119.7
Defensive rating
117.8
51.2%
Effective FG%
51.4%
56.6%
Opp. effective FG%
58.3%
15.0%
Turnover %
16.3%
26.0%
Off. rebound %
27.4%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.30
34.5%
3-point %
33.4%
60.4%
Assist %
61.3%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
10%

Profile

Offence110.0 · 107.0Defence119.7 · 117.8Shooting51.2% · 51.4%3-point %34.5% · 33.4%Ball care15.0% · 16.3%Off. rebounds26.0% · 27.4%Free throws0.30 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)30% · 10%
■ Varese   ■ Basket Napoli
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Varese wins
2
Basket Napoli wins
DateGameScore
07/04/24Varese v Basket Napoli113-79
11/11/23Basket Napoli v Varese97-96
05/03/23Basket Napoli v Varese93-101
15/01/23Varese v Basket Napoli106-79
14/03/22Basket Napoli v Varese74-82
12/12/21Varese v Basket Napoli89-98 OT
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/12/24AReggiana80-97
15/12/24HOlimpia Milano94-92
08/12/24ACremona60-78
01/12/24HVenezia77-86
16/11/24AScafati85-94
10/11/24HVirtus Bologna104-95
03/11/24ATrieste81-107
27/10/24HPistoia102-95
19/10/24HTrapani100-109
13/10/24ATrento100-106
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/12/24HScafati96-94 OT
15/12/24ABrescia84-97
08/12/24HReggiana76-84
01/12/24ATrento83-90
17/11/24HTreviso69-84
10/11/24ATrapani85-95
03/11/24HVenezia80-81
26/10/24AOlimpia Milano82-89
19/10/24HCremona81-87
13/10/24ASassari76-94

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Varese
Lega A 2024-25
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL25%
HomeLWWLW50%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1266
Win %25%50%0%
Points / game89.395.383.3
Allowed / game98.597.0100.0
Point differential-9.2-1.7-16.7
Avg total187.8192.3183.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Basket Napoli
Lega A 2024-25
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW8%
HomeLLLLW17%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1266
Win %8%17%0%
Points / game81.480.882.0
Allowed / game89.687.092.2
Point differential-8.2-6.2-10.2
Avg total171.0167.8174.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %8%17%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Trento1211192%91.882.9+8.8
2 Brescia1210283%90.485.6+4.8
3 Reggiana129375%81.274.5+6.7
4 Trapani129375%93.487.3+6.1
5 Virtus Bologna128467%85.883.0+2.8
6 Trieste127558%86.284.2+2.0
7 Tortona127558%86.184.2+1.9
8 Olimpia Milano127558%86.185.0+1.1
9 Treviso126650%86.386.6-0.2
10 Sassari136746%83.384.2-0.8
11 Venezia124833%76.577.5-1.0
12 Scafati124833%87.292.8-5.6
13 Pistoia123925%82.086.2-4.2
14 Varese123925%89.398.5-9.2
15 Cremona1321115%76.581.2-4.6
16 Basket Napoli121118%81.489.6-8.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Varese2227192189
Basket Napoli1227291886
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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