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Varese vs Basket Napoli Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 07 Mar 2027
Tip-off: 19:00
Scheduled
Position#6
Record5-3
FormWWLLW
Points / game89.1
Allowed / game87.1
Varese
Italy
vs
Form · last 5 games
6.4/10
Above normal
6.1/10
Above normal
Basket Napoli
Italy
Position#2
Record6-1
FormWWWWW
Points / game93.7
Allowed / game86.6
ItalyLega ARound 21· Palasport Lino Oldrini
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · Varese v Basket Napoli
07 Mar 2027
VAR v NAP
upcoming
03 Jan 2026
VAR84
NAP80
28 Dec 2024
VAR89
NAP86
07 Apr 2024
VAR113
NAP79
15 Jan 2023
VAR106
NAP79
12 Dec 2021
VAR89
NAP98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Varese win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Basket Napoli win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Murcia
#4
L
58-85
58
85
-27
44avg 78
A07/10
Champions League
Trieste
#7
W
85-84
85
84
+1
82avg 78
H10/10
Lega A
Peristeri
#3
L
82-85
82
85
-3
80avg 78
H13/10
Champions League
Trento
#11
L
85-87
85
87
-2
72avg 78
A18/10
Lega A
BC Roma
#13
W
110-103 OT
110
103
+7
106avg 78
H24/10
Lega A
Bamberg
#53
W
95-61
95
61
+34
92avg 78
A27/10
Champions League
Verona
#10
W
99-88
99
88
+11
90avg 78
A31/10
Lega A
Udine
#8
L
81-84
81
84
-3
no box
H08/11
Lega A
Peristeri
#3
L
96-101
96
101
-5
no box
A11/11
Champions League
Reggiana
#14
W
99-84
99
84
+15
no box
A14/11
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
8-16
14-23
20-27
16-19
19-15
21-23
21-20
24-26
27-26
25-11
12-27
18-21
17-23
24-26
21-23
23-15
32-28
17-17
17-22
29-28
22-10
24-16
29-17
20-18
25-23
25-21
23-27
26-17
26-14
23-26
14-27
18-17
20-28
27-30
17-21
32-22
34-18
21-22
25-18
19-26
175.2Avg total
89.0Scored
86.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)89.187.1176.2+2.062%
Season at home (4)86.290.2176.5-4.050%
Season away (4)92.084.0176.0+8.075%
Last 10 (10)89.086.2175.2+2.850%
Last 5 (5)94.083.6177.6+10.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)83.590.2173.7-6.636%
vs Similar (14)87.486.9174.2+0.557%
vs Weaker (5)92.679.4172.0+13.280%
This opponent (Basket Napoli) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Basket NapoliItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNapoli
Date
Competition
Cantu
#16
W
99-80
99
80
+19
90avg 85
A11/10
Lega A
Slask Wroclaw
#31
W
86-82
86
82
+4
84avg 85
A14/10
Eurocup
Olimpia Milano
#4
L
82-98
82
98
-16
72avg 85
H18/10
Lega A
Tofas
#6
W
105-101 OT
105
101
+4
99avg 85
H21/10
Eurocup
Tortona
#12
W
92-90
92
90
+2
86avg 85
A25/10
Lega A
Neptunas
#26
W
94-85
94
85
+9
98avg 85
A28/10
Eurocup
Venezia
#9
W
99-81
99
81
+18
100avg 85
H01/11
Lega A
Trento
#27
W
90-79
90
79
+11
no box
H03/11
Eurocup
Scafati
#15
W
91-89
91
89
+2
no box
A08/11
Lega A
Chemnitz
#13
W
112-90
112
90
+22
no box
A11/11
Eurocup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-19
29-22
17-20
33-19
22-18
18-19
21-24
25-21
25-18
13-23
23-25
21-32
29-20
24-22
20-24
20-27
19-26
22-21
26-17
25-26
24-20
23-25
24-20
23-20
19-16
25-22
30-20
25-23
24-21
13-18
28-15
25-25
22-19
15-28
27-28
27-14
24-22
35-19
20-28
33-21
182.5Avg total
95.0Scored
87.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)93.786.6180.3+7.186%
Season at home (3)93.390.7184.0+2.767%
Season away (4)94.083.5177.5+10.5100%
Last 10 (10)95.087.5182.5+7.590%
Last 5 (5)97.284.8182.0+12.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)77.694.2171.8-16.60%
vs Similar (14)86.985.1172.1+1.850%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)94.583.6178.1+10.8100%
This opponent (Varese) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.9+2.9Q1: +2.9+2.9Q2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q2: -0.2-0.2Q3Q3: -3.0-3.0Q3: +1.5+1.5Q4Q4: +1.6+1.6Q4: +2.9+2.9
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.9+2.9Q1: +2.9+2.9Q2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q2: -0.2-0.2Q3Q3: -3.0-3.0Q3: +1.5+1.5Q4Q4: +1.6+1.6Q4: +2.9+2.9
VareseBasket Napoli
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Murcia
#4
L
22-39
22
39
-17
A07/10
Champions League
Trieste
#7
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H10/10
Lega A
Peristeri
#3
W
52-37
52
37
+15
H13/10
Champions League
Trento
#11
L
41-49
41
49
-8
A18/10
Lega A
BC Roma
#13
W
49-45
49
45
+4
H24/10
Lega A
Bamberg
#53
W
46-26
46
26
+20
A27/10
Champions League
Verona
#10
W
50-44
50
44
+6
A31/10
Lega A
Udine
#8
W
49-40
49
40
+9
H08/11
Lega A
Peristeri
#3
L
47-58
47
58
-11
A11/11
Champions League
Reggiana
#14
W
55-40
55
40
+15
A14/11
Lega A
86.7Avg total
45.1Scored
41.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.442.885.1-0.450%-
Last 30 at home (14)44.442.286.6+2.157%-
Last 30 away (16)40.643.283.9-2.644%-
Last 10 (10)45.141.686.7+3.570%-
Last 5 (5)49.441.691.0+7.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)41.546.087.5-4.527%-
vs Similar (14)41.641.483.1+0.257%-
vs Weaker (5)46.439.485.8+7.080%-
This opponent (Basket Napoli) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Basket NapoliLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cantu
#16
W
49-41
49
41
+8
A11/10
Lega A
Slask Wroclaw
#31
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A14/10
Eurocup
Olimpia Milano
#4
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H18/10
Lega A
Tofas
#6
W
53-42
53
42
+11
H21/10
Eurocup
Tortona
#12
L
41-47
41
47
-6
A25/10
Lega A
Neptunas
#26
W
47-45
47
45
+2
A28/10
Eurocup
Venezia
#9
W
44-38
44
38
+6
H01/11
Lega A
Trento
#27
L
37-39
37
39
-2
H03/11
Eurocup
Scafati
#15
L
37-47
37
47
-10
A08/11
Lega A
Chemnitz
#13
W
59-41
59
41
+18
A11/11
Eurocup
86.3Avg total
44.5Scored
41.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.441.083.4+1.467%-
Last 30 at home (14)40.737.878.5+2.964%-
Last 30 away (16)43.943.887.8+0.169%-
Last 10 (10)44.541.886.3+2.760%-
Last 5 (5)44.842.086.8+2.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)39.243.482.6-4.260%-
vs Similar (14)40.939.980.9+1.064%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)45.841.387.1+4.573%-
This opponent (Varese) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 84.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.0 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.1 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.518.0
50.7%
54.3%36.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.910.5
36.3%
34.3%31.5
🏀 Free throws24.717.1
69.2%
74.6%17.1
They take 64.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Basket Napolitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Basket Napoli: 93.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.0 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.5 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.8 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.720.5
59.1%
54.3%41.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.611.5
41.7%
34.3%34.5
🏀 Free throws24.717.8
72.1%
74.6%17.8
They take 62.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 07 Mar 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Varese
WLLWWWLLWL
Basket Napoli
WWWWWWWLWW
#6
League position
#2
-1.2
Net rating
+8.2
91.5
Offensive rating
106.6
92.7
Defensive rating
98.4
52.4%
Effective FG%
60.6%
52.3%
Opp. effective FG%
52.1%
18.5%
Turnover %
15.8%
0.38
Free-throw rate
0.40
36.3%
3-point %
41.7%
66.7%
Assist %
68.1%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence91.5 · 106.6Defence92.7 · 98.4Shooting52.4% · 60.6%3-point %36.3% · 41.7%Ball care18.5% · 15.8%Free throws0.38 · 0.40Form (last 10/10)50% · 90%
■ Varese   ■ Basket Napoli
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Varese wins
3
Basket Napoli wins
DateGameScore
22/03/26Basket Napoli v Varese104-75
03/01/26Varese v Basket Napoli84-80
12/04/25Basket Napoli v Varese87-97
28/12/24Varese v Basket Napoli89-86
07/04/24Varese v Basket Napoli113-79
11/11/23Basket Napoli v Varese97-96
05/03/23Basket Napoli v Varese93-101
15/01/23Varese v Basket Napoli106-79
14/03/22Basket Napoli v Varese74-82
12/12/21Varese v Basket Napoli89-98 OT
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AReggiana99-84
11/11/26APeristeri96-101
08/11/26HUdine81-84
31/10/26AVerona99-88
27/10/26ABamberg95-61
24/10/26HBC Roma110-103 OT
18/10/26ATrento85-87
13/10/26HPeristeri82-85
10/10/26HTrieste85-84
07/10/26AMurcia58-85
Basket Napolilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26AChemnitz112-90
08/11/26AScafati91-89
03/11/26HTrento90-79
01/11/26HVenezia99-81
28/10/26ANeptunas94-85
25/10/26ATortona92-90
21/10/26HTofas105-101 OT
18/10/26HOlimpia Milano82-98
14/10/26ASlask Wroclaw86-82
11/10/26ACantu99-80

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Varese
Lega A 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW62%
HomeLWWL50%
AwayWLWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %62%50%75%
Points / game89.186.292.0
Allowed / game87.190.284.0
Point differential+2.0-4.0+8.0
Avg total176.2176.5176.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)50% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %12%25%0%
Basket Napoli
Lega A 2026-27
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW86%
HomeWLW67%
AwayWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %86%67%100%
Points / game93.793.394.0
Allowed / game86.690.783.5
Point differential+7.1+2.7+10.5
Avg total180.3184.0177.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%33%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)-100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Virtus Bologna76186%96.486.0+10.4
2 Basket Napoli76186%93.786.6+7.1
3 Treviso86275%90.887.6+3.1
4 Olimpia Milano75271%90.982.7+8.1
5 Maxima Roma75271%88.183.7+4.4
6 Varese85362%89.187.1+2.0
7 Trieste74357%94.488.4+6.0
8 Udine74357%81.380.3+1.0
9 Venezia74357%87.988.6-0.7
10 Verona84450%88.590.8-2.2
11 Trento73443%80.483.6-3.1
12 Tortona72529%83.791.0-7.3
13 BC Roma82625%98.698.0+0.6
14 Reggiana82625%82.085.6-3.6
15 Scafati81712%81.591.9-10.4
16 Cantu7070%76.990.9-14.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
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