PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Basket Napoli vs Varese Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 05 Mar 2023
Tip-off: 15:00
Final 93-101
29-28 33-28 16-25 15-20
Position#12
Record7-12
FormLWLWL
Points / game77.1
Allowed / game83.5
vs
Varese 🏆
Italy
Position#4
Record10-9
FormLWLLL
Points / game91.2
Allowed / game90.4
ItalyLega ARound 20
Domestic2022-23
Meetings · Basket Napoli v Varese
20 Dec 2026
NAP v VAR
upcoming
22 Mar 2026
NAP104
VAR75
12 Apr 2025
NAP87
VAR97
11 Nov 2023
NAP97
VAR96
05 Mar 2023
NAP93
VAR101
14 Mar 2022
NAP74
VAR82
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Basket Napoli winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Varese winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Basket NapoliItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNapoli
Date
Competition
Trento
#7
W
69-58
69
58
+11
68avg 66
H10/12
Lega A
Sassari
#5
L
69-86
69
86
-17
61avg 66
A17/12
Lega A
Verona
#16
L
74-80
74
80
-6
61avg 66
H26/12
Lega A
Scafati
#11
L
61-96
61
96
-35
49avg 66
A02/01
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
W
87-81 OT
87
81
+6
no box
H08/01
Lega A
Varese
#4
L
79-106
79
106
-27
63avg 66
A15/01
Lega A
Sassari
#5
W
93-83
93
83
+10
93avg 66
H22/01
Lega A
Trieste
#15
L
68-85
68
85
-17
no box
A29/01
Lega A
Scafati
#11
W
71-69
71
69
+2
65avg 66
H05/02
Lega A
Treviso
#13
L
82-85
82
85
-3
71avg 66
A11/02
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-15
14-14
18-16
21-13
18-22
10-21
23-21
18-22
20-21
16-18
21-13
17-28
15-21
14-19
18-33
14-23
23-18
18-19
11-21
23-17
20-24
20-22
20-27
19-33
23-25
29-19
25-14
16-25
19-18
15-24
20-23
14-20
9-16
19-16
17-12
26-25
17-19
14-23
27-21
24-22
158.2Avg total
75.3Scored
82.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)77.183.5160.6-6.537%
Season at home (9)80.078.2158.2+1.867%
Season away (10)74.488.3162.7-13.910%
Last 10 (10)75.382.9158.2-7.640%
Last 5 (5)78.685.6164.2-7.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)74.884.2159.1-9.417%
vs Similar (17)78.279.7157.9-1.547%
vs Weaker (1)74.082.0156.0-8.00%
This opponent (Varese) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Trieste
#15
W
104-99 OT
104
99
+5
no box
H18/12
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
84-96
84
96
-12
61avg 78
A26/12
Lega A
Tortona
#3
L
88-89
88
89
-1
76avg 78
H02/01
Lega A
Brindisi
#9
W
104-90
104
90
+14
103avg 78
A08/01
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#12
W
106-79
106
79
+27
109avg 78
H15/01
Lega A
Trento
#7
L
80-90
80
90
-10
68avg 78
A22/01
Lega A
Brescia
#8
W
80-72
80
72
+8
77avg 78
H28/01
Lega A
Tortona
#3
L
91-103
91
103
-12
84avg 78
A05/02
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
75-87
75
87
-12
68avg 78
H12/02
Lega A
Pesaro
#3
L
80-84
80
84
-4
no box
A15/02
Italian Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-16
21-22
25-21
16-29
21-36
11-21
28-25
24-14
17-18
27-24
29-20
15-27
26-27
29-17
23-24
26-22
24-20
22-20
27-20
33-19
16-28
25-23
19-23
20-16
15-16
29-22
27-17
9-17
23-20
31-34
20-31
17-18
22-21
23-24
18-23
12-19
12-29
23-15
29-23
16-17
178.1Avg total
89.2Scored
88.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)91.290.4181.5+0.853%
Season at home (10)91.188.4179.5+2.760%
Season away (9)91.292.6183.8-1.344%
Last 10 (10)89.288.9178.1+0.340%
Last 5 (5)81.287.2168.4-6.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)84.394.2178.6-9.922%
vs Similar (15)88.088.7176.7-0.747%
vs Weaker ◀ (5)97.691.0188.6+6.680%
This opponent (Basket Napoli) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -1.9-1.9Q1: -2.9-2.9Q2Q2: -2.6-2.6Q2: +1.9+1.9Q3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q3: +1.8+1.8Q4Q4: -3.6-3.6Q4: -1.0-1.0
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -1.9-1.9Q1: -2.9-2.9Q2Q2: -2.6-2.6Q2: +1.9+1.9Q3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q3: +1.8+1.8Q4Q4: -3.6-3.6Q4: -1.0-1.0
Basket NapoliVarese
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Basket NapoliLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Trento
#7
W
30-29
30
29
+1
H10/12
Lega A
Sassari
#5
L
28-43
28
43
-15
A17/12
Lega A
Verona
#16
L
36-39
36
39
-3
H26/12
Lega A
Scafati
#11
L
29-40
29
40
-11
A02/01
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
W
41-37
41
37
+4
H08/01
Lega A
Varese
#4
L
40-46
40
46
-6
A15/01
Lega A
Sassari
#5
W
52-44
52
44
+8
H22/01
Lega A
Trieste
#15
L
34-42
34
42
-8
A29/01
Lega A
Scafati
#11
L
28-32
28
32
-4
H05/02
Lega A
Treviso
#13
L
31-42
31
42
-11
A11/02
Lega A
74.3Avg total
34.9Scored
39.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.839.275.0-3.527%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.638.776.3-1.140%-
Last 30 away (15)33.939.873.7-5.913%-
Last 10 (10)34.939.474.3-4.530%-
Last 5 (5)37.041.278.2-4.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)38.241.579.7-3.333%-
vs Similar (17)34.137.171.2-2.924%-
vs Weaker (1)35.049.084.0-14.00%-
This opponent (Varese) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Trieste
#15
W
47-38
47
38
+9
H18/12
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
32-57
32
57
-25
A26/12
Lega A
Tortona
#3
W
44-42
44
42
+2
H02/01
Lega A
Brindisi
#9
W
55-44
55
44
+11
A08/01
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#12
W
46-40
46
40
+6
H15/01
Lega A
Trento
#7
L
41-51
41
51
-10
A22/01
Lega A
Brescia
#8
W
44-38
44
38
+6
H28/01
Lega A
Tortona
#3
D
54-54
54
54
+0
A05/02
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
D
45-45
45
45
+0
H12/02
Lega A
Pesaro
#3
L
35-44
35
44
-9
A15/02
Italian Cup
89.6Avg total
44.3Scored
45.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.645.289.8-0.750%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.143.587.6+0.547%-
Last 30 away (15)45.146.992.0-1.953%-
Last 10 (10)44.345.389.6-1.050%-
Last 5 (5)43.846.490.2-2.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)41.947.989.8-6.033%-
vs Similar (15)45.943.389.2+2.560%-
vs Weaker ◀ (5)47.446.493.8+1.060%-
This opponent (Basket Napoli) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Basket Napolitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Basket Napoli: 73.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.4 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.7 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.1 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.8 points a game
47%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.219.7
49.0%
51.3%39.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.77.9
34.8%
36.4%23.7
🏀 Free throws14.810.1
68.2%
76.1%10.1
They take 62.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 88.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀40%
🏀🏀🏀43%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.2 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.8 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.7 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.8 points a game
47%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.217.6
51.5%
51.3%35.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.012.6
37.1%
36.4%37.8
🏀 Free throws22.115.7
71.0%
76.1%15.7
They take 68.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 05 Mar 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Basket Napoli
LWLWLWLLLW
Varese
LLLWLWWLLW
#12
League position
#4
-15.1
Net rating
-2.5
101.2
Offensive rating
109.6
116.3
Defensive rating
112.1
50.2%
Effective FG%
53.5%
52.3%
Opp. effective FG%
54.4%
14.5%
Turnover %
15.5%
23.6%
Off. rebound %
23.5%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.32
34.8%
3-point %
37.1%
55.8%
Assist %
63.9%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence101.2 · 109.6Defence116.3 · 112.1Shooting50.2% · 53.5%3-point %34.8% · 37.1%Ball care14.5% · 15.5%Off. rebounds23.6% · 23.5%Free throws0.24 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)40% · 40%
■ Basket Napoli   ■ Varese
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Basket Napoli wins
2
Varese wins
DateGameScore
15/01/23Varese v Basket Napoli106-79
14/03/22Basket Napoli v Varese74-82
12/12/21Varese v Basket Napoli89-98 OT
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/02/23ATreviso82-85
05/02/23HScafati71-69
29/01/23ATrieste68-85
22/01/23HSassari93-83
15/01/23AVarese79-106
08/01/23HOlimpia Milano87-81 OT
02/01/23AScafati61-96
26/12/22HVerona74-80
17/12/22ASassari69-86
10/12/22HTrento69-58
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/02/23APesaro80-84
12/02/23HOlimpia Milano75-87
05/02/23ATortona91-103
28/01/23HBrescia80-72
22/01/23ATrento80-90
15/01/23HBasket Napoli106-79
08/01/23ABrindisi104-90
02/01/23HTortona88-89
26/12/22AOlimpia Milano84-96
18/12/22HTrieste104-99 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Basket Napoli
Lega A 2022-23
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL37%
HomeWLWWW67%
AwayLLLLL10%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19910
Win %37%67%10%
Points / game77.180.074.4
Allowed / game83.578.288.3
Point differential-6.5+1.8-13.9
Avg total160.6158.2162.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%22%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)67% (3)33% (3)
Overtime %16%22%10%
Varese
Lega A 2022-23
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL53%
HomeWLWWL60%
AwayLLWLL44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19109
Win %53%60%44%
Points / game91.291.191.2
Allowed / game90.488.492.6
Point differential+0.8+2.7-1.3
Avg total181.5179.5183.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%10%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)60% (5)0% (1)
Overtime %11%20%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Olimpia Milano1915479%81.972.2+9.8
2 Virtus Bologna1915479%83.976.9+7.1
3 Tortona1914574%82.376.6+5.7
4 Pesaro1911858%86.084.7+1.3
5 Sassari2011955%85.781.0+4.7
6 Varese1910953%91.290.4+0.8
7 Brindisi1910953%81.082.4-1.4
8 Trento1910953%74.676.7-2.1
9 Venezia2091145%82.580.0+2.5
10 Trieste1981142%78.181.7-3.7
11 Treviso1981142%79.684.5-4.9
12 Brescia1971237%83.283.6-0.4
13 Scafati1971237%76.677.7-1.1
14 Basket Napoli1971237%77.183.5-6.5
15 Verona1961332%78.287.1-8.9
16 Reggiana1951426%74.978.1-3.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Basket Napoli2933161593
Varese28282520101
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.