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Varese vs Virtus Bologna Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 26 Dec 2017
Tip-off: 14:00
Final 85-90 (OT)
14-17 24-19 17-15 19-23 11-16
Position#8
Record4-7
FormLLLWL
Points / game73.8
Allowed / game71.4
vs
Position#7
Record5-6
FormLLWLW
Points / game80.2
Allowed / game76.4
ItalyLega ARound 12
Domestic2017-18
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Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Varese winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Virtus Bologna winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
73-74
73
74
-1
98avg 107
A08/10
Lega A
Cantu
#9
W
95-64
95
64
+31
132avg 107
H16/10
Lega A
Brescia
#3
L
67-73
67
73
-6
94avg 107
A23/10
Lega A
Pistoia
#13
W
81-73
81
73
+8
106avg 107
H29/10
Lega A
Trento
#5
W
93-66
93
66
+27
128avg 107
H04/11
Lega A
Avellino
#4
L
61-65
61
65
-4
156avg 107
A12/11
Lega A
Sassari
#6
L
61-82
61
82
-21
154avg 107
H19/11
Lega A
Pesaro
#15
L
71-74
71
74
-3
96avg 107
A03/12
Lega A
Capo d'Orlando
#16
W
82-58
82
58
+24
114avg 107
H10/12
Lega A
Reggiana
#11
L
66-76
66
76
-10
90avg 107
A16/12
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-20
19-19
18-17
21-18
20-16
28-19
22-10
25-19
13-17
14-28
17-17
23-11
18-16
26-23
9-20
28-14
31-12
18-17
28-19
16-18
16-10
14-17
11-20
20-18
16-27
22-17
8-18
15-20
15-22
12-18
19-16
25-18
17-14
24-16
26-17
15-11
15-14
19-21
17-25
15-16
145.5Avg total
75.0Scored
70.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)73.871.4145.2+2.536%
Season at home (6)79.070.5149.5+8.567%
Season away (5)67.672.4140.0-4.80%
Last 10 (10)75.070.5145.5+4.540%
Last 5 (5)68.271.0139.2-2.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)76.981.5158.4-4.638%
vs Similar ◀ (19)75.774.7150.4+0.953%
vs Weaker (3)78.068.3146.3+9.767%
This opponent (Virtus Bologna) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Virtus BolognaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBologna
Date
Competition
Capo d'Orlando
#16
W
88-52
88
52
+36
119avg 116
H08/10
Lega A
Pesaro
#15
W
81-75
81
75
+6
no box
A14/10
Lega A
Sassari
#6
W
89-72
89
72
+17
121avg 116
H22/10
Lega A
Venezia
#2
L
87-88
87
88
-1
117avg 116
H29/10
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
64-72
64
72
-8
87avg 116
A05/11
Lega A
Brescia
#3
L
74-76
74
76
-2
103avg 116
H12/11
Lega A
Brindisi
#14
L
75-79
75
79
-4
173avg 116
A19/11
Lega A
Cremona
#10
W
79-78
79
78
+1
106avg 116
H03/12
Lega A
Cantu
#9
L
87-94
87
94
-7
118avg 116
A10/12
Lega A
Torino
#12
W
84-76
84
76
+8
111avg 116
H17/12
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-15
21-15
18-4
22-18
21-20
24-17
18-22
18-16
18-21
23-16
25-23
23-12
25-16
22-23
28-29
12-20
15-13
20-26
20-15
9-18
16-22
25-23
20-7
13-24
17-18
12-16
29-22
17-23
23-16
17-20
17-20
22-22
22-25
16-25
25-21
24-23
15-23
23-22
22-15
24-16
157.0Avg total
80.8Scored
76.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)80.276.4156.5+3.845%
Season at home (6)83.573.7157.2+9.867%
Season away (5)76.279.6155.8-3.420%
Last 10 (10)80.876.2157.0+4.650%
Last 5 (5)79.880.6160.4-0.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)71.781.0152.7-9.30%
vs Similar ◀ (9)78.678.1156.7+0.433%
vs Weaker (18)81.270.5151.7+10.783%
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.8+0.8Q1: +1.0+1.0Q2Q2: +0.1+0.1Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: -0.4-0.4Q3: +4.4+4.4Q4Q4: +4.0+4.0Q4: -0.8-0.8
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.8+0.8Q1: +1.0+1.0Q2Q2: +0.1+0.1Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: -0.4-0.4Q3: +4.4+4.4Q4Q4: +4.0+4.0Q4: -0.8-0.8
VareseVirtus Bologna
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A08/10
Lega A
Cantu
#9
W
48-35
48
35
+13
H16/10
Lega A
Brescia
#3
L
27-45
27
45
-18
A23/10
Lega A
Pistoia
#13
W
44-39
44
39
+5
H29/10
Lega A
Trento
#5
W
49-29
49
29
+20
H04/11
Lega A
Avellino
#4
W
30-27
30
27
+3
A12/11
Lega A
Sassari
#6
L
38-44
38
44
-6
H19/11
Lega A
Pesaro
#15
L
27-40
27
40
-13
A03/12
Lega A
Capo d'Orlando
#16
W
41-30
41
30
+11
H10/12
Lega A
Reggiana
#11
L
34-35
34
35
-1
A16/12
Lega A
73.5Avg total
37.2Scored
36.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.940.179.0-1.243%-
Last 30 at home (15)42.039.381.3+2.760%-
Last 30 away (15)35.840.976.7-5.127%-
Last 10 (10)37.236.373.5+0.950%-
Last 5 (5)34.035.269.2-1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)38.244.682.9-6.412%-
vs Similar ◀ (19)39.438.778.2+0.753%-
vs Weaker (3)37.336.373.7+1.067%-
This opponent (Virtus Bologna) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Virtus BolognaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Capo d'Orlando
#16
W
48-30
48
30
+18
H08/10
Lega A
Pesaro
#15
W
45-37
45
37
+8
A14/10
Lega A
Sassari
#6
W
41-37
41
37
+4
H22/10
Lega A
Venezia
#2
W
47-39
47
39
+8
H29/10
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
35-39
35
39
-4
A05/11
Lega A
Brescia
#3
L
41-45
41
45
-4
H12/11
Lega A
Brindisi
#14
L
29-34
29
34
-5
A19/11
Lega A
Cremona
#10
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H03/12
Lega A
Cantu
#9
L
38-50
38
50
-12
A10/12
Lega A
Torino
#12
L
38-45
38
45
-7
H17/12
Lega A
79.4Avg total
40.2Scored
39.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.236.776.9+3.563%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.935.877.7+6.175%-
Last 30 away (14)38.337.876.1+0.550%-
Last 10 (10)40.239.279.4+1.050%-
Last 5 (5)37.242.079.2-4.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)31.340.071.3-8.70%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)40.739.480.1+1.256%-
vs Weaker (18)41.434.876.3+6.678%-
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 74.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.2 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.2 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.8 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 78.7 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.520.1
49.6%
51.6%40.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.27.4
31.9%
34.9%22.2
🏀 Free throws15.711.8
75.2%
73.0%11.8
They take 63.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Virtus Bolognatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Virtus Bologna: 80.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.6 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.0 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.4 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 78.7 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.721.3
51.1%
51.6%42.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.58.0
31.4%
34.9%24.0
🏀 Free throws18.713.4
71.7%
73.0%13.4
They take 67.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 26 Dec 2017 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Varese
LWLLLWWLWL
Virtus Bologna
WLWLLLLWWW
#8
League position
#7
+6.5
Net rating
+6.1
106.5
Offensive rating
106.5
100.1
Defensive rating
100.3
49.0%
Effective FG%
49.6%
47.9%
Opp. effective FG%
49.3%
16.5%
Turnover %
15.2%
32.3%
Off. rebound %
30.5%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.28
31.9%
3-point %
31.4%
49.1%
Assist %
51.2%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence106.5 · 106.5Defence100.1 · 100.3Shooting49.0% · 49.6%3-point %31.9% · 31.4%Ball care16.5% · 15.2%Off. rebounds32.3% · 30.5%Free throws0.25 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)40% · 50%
■ Varese   ■ Virtus Bologna
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Varese wins
3
Virtus Bologna wins
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/12/17AReggiana66-76
10/12/17HCapo d'Orlando82-58
03/12/17APesaro71-74
19/11/17HSassari61-82
12/11/17AAvellino61-65
04/11/17HTrento93-66
29/10/17HPistoia81-73
23/10/17ABrescia67-73
16/10/17HCantu95-64
08/10/17AOlimpia Milano73-74
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/12/17HTorino84-76
10/12/17ACantu87-94
03/12/17HCremona79-78
19/11/17ABrindisi75-79
12/11/17HBrescia74-76
05/11/17AOlimpia Milano64-72
29/10/17HVenezia87-88
22/10/17HSassari89-72
14/10/17APesaro81-75
08/10/17HCapo d'Orlando88-52

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Varese
Lega A 2017-18
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL36%
HomeWWWLW67%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1165
Win %36%67%0%
Points / game73.879.067.6
Allowed / game71.470.572.4
Point differential+2.5+8.5-4.8
Avg total145.2149.5140.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+27%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)-0% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Virtus Bologna
Lega A 2017-18
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLW45%
HomeWLLWW67%
AwayLWLLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1165
Win %45%67%20%
Points / game80.283.576.2
Allowed / game76.473.779.6
Point differential+3.8+9.8-3.4
Avg total156.5157.2155.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won20% (5)33% (3)0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Brescia1210283%79.670.0+9.6
2 Olimpia Milano129375%76.371.8+4.6
3 Avellino118373%79.577.2+2.4
4 Torino128467%80.477.7+2.8
5 Sassari117464%84.279.3+4.9
6 Venezia117464%81.681.4+0.3
7 Trento126650%77.377.4-0.1
8 Virtus Bologna115645%80.276.4+3.8
9 Cantu115645%84.987.9-3.0
10 Capo d'Orlando115645%67.074.8-7.8
11 Varese114736%73.871.4+2.5
12 Cremona114736%79.981.1-1.2
13 Reggiana124833%72.574.2-1.8
14 Pistoia124833%75.681.8-6.2
15 Pesaro113827%76.381.4-5.1
16 Brindisi112918%73.680.0-6.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Varese142417191185
Virtus Bologna171915231690
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