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Avellino vs Varese Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 12 Nov 2017
Tip-off: 11:00
Final 65-61
10-16 17-14 20-11 18-20
Position#4
Record4-2
FormWWLLW
Points / game78.8
Allowed / game75.8
vs
Position#8
Record3-3
FormLWLWW
Points / game78.5
Allowed / game71.7
ItalyLega ARound 7
Domestic2017-18
Meetings · Avellino v Varese
10 Mar 2019
AVE76
VAR71
12 Nov 2017
AVE65
VAR61
05 Mar 2017
AVE75
VAR82
26 Mar 2016
AVE89
VAR71
11 Jan 2015
AVE67
VAR91
16 Feb 2014
AVE83
VAR63
27 Jan 2013
AVE82
VAR83
02 May 2012
AVE78
VAR77
24 Oct 2010
AVE85
VAR69
07 Mar 2010
AVE76
VAR67
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Avellino winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Varese winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AvellinoItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAvellino
Date
Competition
Brescia
#3
L
75-96
75
96
-21
102avg 108
A08/10
Lega A
Besiktas
#9
W
86-80
86
80
+6
no box
A11/10
Champions League
Torino
#12
W
72-63
72
63
+9
100avg 108
H14/10
Lega A
Nanterre
#15
L
81-89
81
89
-8
no box
A18/10
Champions League
Pistoia
#13
W
86-71
86
71
+15
112avg 108
A22/10
Lega A
Oostende
#35
W
66-57
66
57
+9
no box
H25/10
Champions League
Cantu
#9
W
86-71
86
71
+15
120avg 108
H28/10
Lega A
Zielona Gora
#36
L
79-90
79
90
-11
no box
A31/10
Champions League
Brindisi
#14
L
88-92 OT
88
92
-4
no box
A05/11
Lega A
Nymburk
#5
W
80-63
80
63
+17
no box
H08/11
Champions League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-20
18-29
20-21
11-26
23-31
24-17
27-16
12-16
23-18
15-19
17-14
17-12
19-19
11-19
18-19
33-32
14-19
26-10
26-20
20-22
18-27
17-6
14-13
17-11
20-20
25-15
19-22
22-14
21-19
17-23
15-22
26-26
22-27
21-20
11-17
25-15
23-14
19-22
19-14
19-13
157.1Avg total
79.9Scored
77.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)78.875.8154.7+3.067%
Season at home (3)74.765.3140.0+9.3100%
Season away (3)83.086.3169.3-3.333%
Last 10 (10)79.977.2157.1+2.760%
Last 5 (5)79.874.6154.4+5.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (18)79.279.0158.2+0.250%
vs Weaker (12)78.673.8152.3+4.875%
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Trento
#4
W
83-80
83
80
+3
110avg 103
H15/04
Lega A
Venezia
#1
L
81-87
81
87
-6
91avg 103
A23/04
Lega A
Cremona
#16
W
78-75
78
75
+3
108avg 103
H30/04
Lega A
Torino
#12
L
76-89
76
89
-13
98avg 103
A07/05
Lega A
Venezia
#2
L
62-80
62
80
-18
84avg 103
H01/10
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
73-74
73
74
-1
98avg 103
A08/10
Lega A
Cantu
#9
W
95-64
95
64
+31
132avg 103
H16/10
Lega A
Brescia
#3
L
67-73
67
73
-6
94avg 103
A23/10
Lega A
Pistoia
#13
W
81-73
81
73
+8
106avg 103
H29/10
Lega A
Trento
#5
W
93-66
93
66
+27
128avg 103
H04/11
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-18
16-28
18-11
29-23
23-29
24-22
20-11
14-25
28-20
17-15
17-20
16-20
18-23
20-24
19-17
19-25
17-20
16-24
13-23
16-13
15-20
19-19
18-17
21-18
20-16
28-19
22-10
25-19
13-17
14-28
17-17
23-11
18-16
26-23
9-20
28-14
31-12
18-17
28-19
16-18
155.0Avg total
78.9Scored
76.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)78.571.7150.2+6.850%
Season at home (4)82.870.8153.5+12.075%
Season away (2)70.073.5143.5-3.50%
Last 10 (10)78.976.1155.0+2.850%
Last 5 (5)81.870.0151.8+11.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)74.581.2155.8-6.825%
vs Similar ◀ (17)77.775.4153.1+2.359%
vs Weaker (1)81.073.0154.0+8.0100%
This opponent (Avellino) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: +1.2+1.2Q2Q2: +1.3+1.3Q2: -2.1-2.1Q3Q3: +0.8+0.8Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: +1.5+1.5Q4: +2.1+2.1
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: +1.2+1.2Q2Q2: +1.3+1.3Q2: -2.1-2.1Q3Q3: +0.8+0.8Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: +1.5+1.5Q4: +2.1+2.1
AvellinoVarese
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AvellinoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brescia
#3
L
44-49
44
49
-5
A08/10
Lega A
Besiktas
#9
L
47-48
47
48
-1
A11/10
Champions League
Torino
#12
W
38-37
38
37
+1
H14/10
Lega A
Nanterre
#15
L
30-38
30
38
-8
A18/10
Champions League
Pistoia
#13
W
40-29
40
29
+11
A22/10
Lega A
Oostende
#35
W
35-33
35
33
+2
H25/10
Champions League
Cantu
#9
W
45-35
45
35
+10
H28/10
Lega A
Zielona Gora
#36
L
38-42
38
42
-4
A31/10
Champions League
Brindisi
#14
L
43-47
43
47
-4
A05/11
Lega A
Nymburk
#5
W
42-36
42
36
+6
H08/11
Champions League
79.6Avg total
40.2Scored
39.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.039.076.0-2.140%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.436.974.3+0.560%-
Last 30 away (15)36.541.277.7-4.720%-
Last 10 (10)40.239.479.6+0.850%-
Last 5 (5)40.638.679.2+2.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (18)36.940.777.6-3.828%-
vs Weaker (12)37.136.673.7+0.558%-
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Trento
#4
L
36-46
36
46
-10
H15/04
Lega A
Venezia
#1
L
47-51
47
51
-4
A23/04
Lega A
Cremona
#16
W
45-35
45
35
+10
H30/04
Lega A
Torino
#12
L
38-47
38
47
-9
A07/05
Lega A
Venezia
#2
L
33-44
33
44
-11
H01/10
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A08/10
Lega A
Cantu
#9
W
48-35
48
35
+13
H16/10
Lega A
Brescia
#3
L
27-45
27
45
-18
A23/10
Lega A
Pistoia
#13
W
44-39
44
39
+5
H29/10
Lega A
Trento
#5
W
49-29
49
29
+20
H04/11
Lega A
81.1Avg total
40.1Scored
41.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.841.280.0-2.437%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.739.980.7+0.853%-
Last 30 away (15)36.942.579.4-5.520%-
Last 10 (10)40.141.081.1-0.940%-
Last 5 (5)40.437.477.8+3.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)36.243.980.1-7.88%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)40.439.479.8+1.053%-
vs Weaker (1)44.039.083.0+5.0100%-
This opponent (Avellino) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Avellinotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Avellino: 77.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.6 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.3 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.5 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 78.7 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.619.8
57.2%
51.6%39.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.98.1
37.0%
34.9%24.3
🏀 Free throws17.913.5
75.4%
73.0%13.5
They take 56.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 78.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.6 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.0 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.9 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 78.7 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.120.8
51.9%
51.6%41.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.68.0
33.9%
34.9%24.0
🏀 Free throws17.312.9
74.6%
73.0%12.9
They take 63.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 12 Nov 2017 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Avellino
WLLWWWLWWL
Varese
WWLWLLLWLW
#4
League position
#8
+1.5
Net rating
+4.8
107.8
Offensive rating
109.7
106.3
Defensive rating
104.9
56.5%
Effective FG%
51.5%
51.5%
Opp. effective FG%
50.6%
21.3%
Turnover %
17.3%
27.9%
Off. rebound %
32.8%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.27
37.0%
3-point %
33.9%
59.9%
Assist %
51.0%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence107.8 · 109.7Defence106.3 · 104.9Shooting56.5% · 51.5%3-point %37.0% · 33.9%Ball care21.3% · 17.3%Off. rebounds27.9% · 32.8%Free throws0.32 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)60% · 50%
■ Avellino   ■ Varese
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Avellino wins
5
Varese wins
DateGameScore
05/03/17Avellino v Varese75-82
06/11/16Varese v Avellino77-79 OT
26/03/16Avellino v Varese89-71
07/12/15Varese v Avellino81-93
10/05/15Varese v Avellino66-73
11/01/15Avellino v Varese67-91
16/02/14Avellino v Varese83-63
03/11/13Varese v Avellino85-68
27/01/13Avellino v Varese82-83 OT
06/10/12Varese v Avellino91-83
Avellinolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/17HNymburk80-63
05/11/17ABrindisi88-92 OT
31/10/17AZielona Gora79-90
28/10/17HCantu86-71
25/10/17HOostende66-57
22/10/17APistoia86-71
18/10/17ANanterre81-89
14/10/17HTorino72-63
11/10/17ABesiktas86-80
08/10/17ABrescia75-96
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/11/17HTrento93-66
29/10/17HPistoia81-73
23/10/17ABrescia67-73
16/10/17HCantu95-64
08/10/17AOlimpia Milano73-74
01/10/17HVenezia62-80
07/05/17ATorino76-89
30/04/17HCremona78-75
23/04/17AVenezia81-87
15/04/17HTrento83-80

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Avellino
Lega A 2017-18
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL67%
HomeWWW100%
AwayLWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %67%100%33%
Points / game78.874.783.0
Allowed / game75.865.386.3
Point differential+3.0+9.3-3.3
Avg total154.7140.0169.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%33%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %17%0%33%
Varese
Lega A 2017-18
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW50%
HomeLWWW75%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games642
Win %50%75%0%
Points / game78.582.870.0
Allowed / game71.770.873.5
Point differential+6.8+12.0-3.5
Avg total150.2153.5143.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Brescia660100%77.567.5+10.0
2 Olimpia Milano76186%75.168.1+7.0
3 Venezia76186%85.781.4+4.3
4 Torino65183%81.578.5+3.0
5 Avellino64267%78.875.8+3.0
6 Virtus Bologna63350%80.572.8+7.7
7 Varese63350%78.571.7+6.8
8 Sassari63350%84.383.0+1.3
9 Cremona63350%81.381.8-0.5
10 Cantu73443%83.687.1-3.6
11 Capo d'Orlando62433%64.871.2-6.3
12 Trento72529%72.077.6-5.6
13 Pistoia72529%71.682.3-10.7
14 Brindisi61517%75.381.8-6.5
15 Pesaro61517%75.081.5-6.5
16 Reggiana71614%74.376.0-1.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Avellino1017201865
Varese1614112061
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